Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Well, lets get this party started...

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 9:

Already achieved: none

1 win: Oshoumi

2 wins: Nishikifuji, Mita

3 wins: Fujiseiun

4 wins: none

5 wins: Daiseizan, Chiyoshoma, Kotokuzan

6 wins: Kotoeiho, Tochitaikai, Asahakuryu

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 9:

1 win: Gonoyama, Fujinokawa, Daieisho, Tomokaze

2 wins: Mitakeumi, Meisei, Asakoryu, Shonannoumi, Shishi

3 wins: Tokihayate, Sadanoumi

4 wins: Hitoshi

5 wins: Takerufuji (injured)*

6 wins: Nishikigi

Already demotable: *Takerufuji is technically still in it, but he isn't going to come back and get 5 wins

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...

[Reonito 1,783]

Juryo demotion order: Miyanokaze (5); Kyokukaiyu (4); Tsurugisho, Nishinoryu, Shiden, Takarafuji (3); Endo (2)

Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka; Wakanosho (1); Takakento, Nagamura, Daiamami, Otsuji (2); Goshima (3)

Six bouts remain for the Juryo guys; everyone in the Ms promotion queue has fought five times with the exception of Goshima (3-1), who fights Matsui tomorrow.

[Jakusotsu 6,394]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Makushita promotion order: Kitanowaka; Wakanosho (1); Takakento, Nagamura, Daiamami, Otsuji (2); Goshima (3)

You forgot Shimanoumi.

[Akinomaki 41,828]

It might get tough for Nishikifuji to save the Aomori makuuchi streak. Looks like only 2 sure demotions and Mita most likely will finish with one win more

[Reonito 1,783]

Just now, Jakusotsu said:

You forgot Shimanoumi.

He needs 5 wins in 2 bouts 

[Reonito 1,783]

2 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

It might get tough for Nishikifuji to save the Aomori makuuchi streak. Looks like only 2 sure demotions and Mita most likely will finish with one win more

I'll be surprised if Nishikigi and Takerufuji end up being the only demotions.

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

9 minutes ago, Reonito said:

11 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

You forgot Shimanoumi.

He needs 5 wins in 2 bouts 

Yes, but this is Shimanoumi: anything is possible.

[Fashiritētā 213]

8 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Yes, but this is Shimanoumi: anything is possible.

I thought he would be in Juryo til he went Intai.

[Reonito 1,783]

1 minute ago, Fashiritētā said:

I thought he would be in Juryo til he went Intai.

They tried, but he really left them no choice. Intai after this basho?

[Fashiritētā 213]

57 minutes ago, Reonito said:

They tried, but he really left them no choice. Intai after this basho?

Maybe, ive been watching the Kise stable YouTube channel, he has been doing more coaching than practicing and i know he already has a Kabu, just a matter of when.

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 10:

Already achieved: Oshoumi

1 win: Nishikifuji

2 wins: Mita

3 wins: Fujiseiun

4 wins: Daiseizan, Chiyoshoma

5 wins: Kotoeiho, Kotokuzan, Asahakuryu

Edited September 23 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Bunbukuchagama 977]

15 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

6 wins: Tochitaikai

In 5 days? It would be impressive. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

7 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

23 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

6 wins: Tochitaikai

In 5 days? It would be impressive. 

Thanks. Corrected.

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 10:

1 win: Gonoyama, Fujinokawa, Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Tomokaze

2 wins: Meisei, Tokihayate, Sadanoumi, Shonannoumi, Shishi

3 wins: none

4 wins: Hitoshi

5 wins: none

Already demotable: Takerufuji, Nishikigi

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...

[RabidJohn 2,071]

2 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...

There are some weird happenings at the split between makunouchi and juryo, but does the size of sanyaku make a practical difference?

I know it causes maegashira ranks to appear/disappear at the bottom, but the number of rikishi remains constant at 42*. It seems to me that being 43rd on down "by the numbers" is a case for demotion/remaining in juryo, immaterial of what the 42nd slot ends up being temporarily called.

What am I missing?

*As I'm merely an expression of the universe become aware of itself, I find this number very pleasing.

Edited September 23 by RabidJohn

[Reonito 1,783]

7 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

There are some weird happenings at the split between makunouchi and juryo, but does the size of sanyaku make a practical difference?

I know it causes maegashira ranks to appear/disappear at the bottom, but the number of rikishi remains constant at 42*. It seems to me that being 43rd on down "by the numbers" is a case for demotion/remaining in juryo, immaterial of what the 42nd slot ends up being temporarily called.

What am I missing?

You're not missing much, but let's say Shishi finishes at 7-8 at M18e, and the next-best promotion case in juryo is pretty weak. If sanyaku stays at 7, he could be saved. If it expands and 18e disappears, he can't stay because that would mean a promotion with a losing record, even if he were still 42nd. Other similar edge cases exist.

[Asashosakari 20,256]

Quick summary of the lower division yusho races so far...sorry, I'm unable to provide videos this time around.

65 rikishi at 3-0 (results) - 15 makushita, 18 sandanme, 26 jonidan, 6 jonokuchi

33 rikishi at 4-0 (results) - 8 makushita, 9 sandanme, 13 jonidan, 3 jonokuchi

And in full length, yesterday's fifth round of matches (results):

Makushita (8 > 4)
5-0 Ms1w Kitanowaka (Hakkaku)
4-1 Ms14w Kotokenryu (Sadogatake)
5-0 Ms20e Shimazuumi (Hanaregoma)
4-1 Ms34w Ikarigata (Isenoumi)
4-1 Ms41e Tokunomusashi (Musashigawa)
5-0 Ms50e Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
4-1 Ms52e Bushozan (Fujishima)
5-0 Ms59w Aratakayama (Tokiwayama)

Sandanme (9 > 5)
5-0 Sd14w Kazeeidai (Oshiogawa)
4-1 Sd16e Sengaku (Kise)
4-1 Sd25w Higonomaru (Kise)
5-0 Sd26e Kazuma (Kise)
5-0 Sd39w Shuji (Kise)
5-0 Sd54w Seiyu (Hidenoyama)
4-1 Sd65e Kiyonohana (Dewanoumi)
4-1 Sd68w Oginohama (Dewanoumi)
5-0 Sd74w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonidan (13 > 6)
4-1 Jd14w Shimanishiki (Asahiyama)
4-1 Jd19e Ayanofuji (Isegahama)
5-0 Jd22w Okada (Takadagawa)
5-0 Jd35e Jokoki (Musashigawa)
4-1 Jd40e Asatenmai (Takasago)
5-0 Jd44w Kaki (Oitekaze)
4-1 Jd50w Satsumasho (Oitekaze)
4-1 Jd67e Asaazuma (Takasago)
5-0 Jd73w Buomaru (Musashigawa)
5-0 Jd81e Takasu (Tagonoura)
4-1 Jd90e Yoshiazuma (Tamanoi)
4-1 Jd98w Hamada (Shikoroyama)
5-0 Jd99w Teraosho (Shikoroyama)

Jonokuchi (3 > 2)
5-0 Jk6w Daishisho (Oitekaze)
4-1 Jk23w Nishimura (Otowayama)
5-0 Jk24e Tatsubayama (Tokitsukaze)

List without the defeated rikishi:

Makushita (4)
5-0 Ms1w Kitanowaka (Hakkaku)
5-0 Ms20e Shimazuumi (Hanaregoma)
5-0 Ms50e Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Ms59w Aratakayama (Tokiwayama)

Sandanme (5)
5-0 Sd14w Kazeeidai (Oshiogawa)
5-0 Sd26e Kazuma (Kise)
5-0 Sd39w Shuji (Kise)
5-0 Sd54w Seiyu (Hidenoyama)
5-0 Sd74w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonidan (6)
5-0 Jd22w Okada (Takadagawa)
5-0 Jd35e Jokoki (Musashigawa)
5-0 Jd44w Kaki (Oitekaze)
5-0 Jd73w Buomaru (Musashigawa)
5-0 Jd81e Takasu (Tagonoura)
5-0 Jd99w Teraosho (Shikoroyama)

Jonokuchi (2)
5-0 Jk6w Daishisho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Jk24e Tatsubayama (Tokitsukaze)

A trio of complications due to same-stable situations in the round just gone; first that big block of Kise-beya rikishi in sandanme which thankfully was halved from 4 to 2, secondly Oitekaze's Kaki and Satsumasho in jonidan who received lower opponents but only Kaki was able to take advantage of it, and finally the Shikoroyama duo in lowest jonidan which necessitated putting both of them against a 4-0 from jonokuchi (and again with only one of them winning it).

For details of the makushita section of all this I shall just direct you to @Reonito's excellent summaries at tachiai.org (round 3, round 4, round 5). In short, it's now an upper half of two former maegashira with recent injury troubles against two marginal prospects aged 23 and 21, which should be enough to indicate who the favoured participants are.

Sandanme lost just enough Kise guys to make it possible to schedule straight down the order. Kazuma should be the favourite to win the whole thing (although that's what we said last time and...), but I can't say I have any idea what his road is going to look like after the next match. Kazuma's heyamate Shuji is 29 years old and has basically spent the last nine years as a high sandanme dweller with occasional brief trips into makushita, none longer than four basho. Uncharitably I would say that experience is the only thing he likely has over his next opponent Seiyu who's just 20 and has developed surprisingly well in his 10 tournaments as a pro so far, given a relatively small physique and not much fanfare on joining. Gonowaka's crossover match against ex-judoka Okada from jonidan is similarly open in my opinion, so it's anybody's guess whether we'll have two or three 6-0's in sandanme.

Skipping to the bottom of the contenders' list for a moment: As the perpetual odd man out, Tatsubayama has faced three straight one-loss opponents now, but that's not continuing even though there's still an odd total of 17 undefeated rikishi. Instead, the schedulers have opted to play jonokuchi down to a sole leader now - newcomer Tatsubayama should be the big favourite against 16-year-old Daishisho, who started last year and has thus far struggled just to stay out of the lowest division.

Consequently the unassigned last man is Shikoroyama-beya's Teraosho this time; the 20-year-old already has five years of experience and was as high as mid-sandanme a year ago, before a disastrous streak of five straight makekoshi (total score 11-24) dropped him some 140 ranks. He will face 18-year-old Miyatani (4-1) who has yet to earn a kachikoshi above the Jd80's. Tough luck torikumi for Miyatani, in all likelihood. In other action the jonidan division sees a pair of Musashigawa-beya guys attempt to set up a do-beya playoff - ex-makushita (before loads of injuries) Buomaru should be the favourite against Takasu, Jokoki probably isn't against collegiate rookie Kaki.

All in all it's likely that there will be nine 6-0 scores, with sandanme and jonidan combining for six of them (either 3/3 or 2/4). If it's 2/4 we will almost certainly see each division play down to 7-0's within, with the sole jonokuchi leader facing a 5-1 opponent. At 3/3 it could get significantly more complex as the rank difference between the third sandanme 6-0 and the first one in jonidan might be too large for the schedulers' tastes.

[Reonito 1,783]

The only change on the Makushita side of the "heaven/hell" boundary is that Goshima beat Matsui to keep himself in contention; if he wins out, 6-1 at Ms5w should be a strong promotion case. On the Juryo side, Kyokukaiyu lost to take over pole position for demotion; anyone else surprised at how badly he's faring? Miyanokaze won, Shiden and Takarafuji lost, so this quartet is the most likely to go down, after absent Endo.

[Sumo Spiffy 667]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 10:

1 win: Gonoyama, Fujinokawa, Mitakeumi, Asakoryu, Tomokaze

2 wins: Meisei, Tokihayate, Sadanoumi, Shonannoumi, Shishi

3 wins: none

4 wins: Hitoshi

5 wins: none

Already demotable: Takerufuji, Nishikigi

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...

It's a good thing the lower-ranked guys are fighting higher and higher up and someone will probably tank. If all those guys swing safe records... 

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

8 hours ago, RabidJohn said:

What am I missing?

Nothing much.

I agree that it's just the highest rated 42* that make up the next basho's maku'uchi.

When I say "by the numbers", I mean that a given wrestler's record will or will not place them below the current bottom rank in the division.

It's not perfect: if it was there would be no point in GTB.

*There will always be "rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty".

[Reonito 1,783]

19 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It's a good thing the lower-ranked guys are fighting higher and higher up and someone will probably tank. If all those guys swing safe records... 

It's not like there's a lot of juryo guys beating down the door...

[Bunbukuchagama 977]

5 hours ago, Reonito said:

Kyokukaiyu lost to take over pole position for demotion

Endo is guaranteed to be demoted  anyway, he isn't coming back. Although he might not end up the lowest by the numbers, you are right about that. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 11:

Already achieved: Oshoumi, Nishikifuji

1 win: none

2 wins: Mita, Fujiseiun

3 wins: Chiyoshoma

4 wins: Daiseizan, Asahakuryu

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 11:

1 win: Gonoyama, Tokihayate, Asakoryu, Shonannoumi, Shishi

2 wins: Meisei, Sadanoumi

3 wins: Hitoshi

4 wins: none

Already demotable: Takerufuji, Nishikigi

This assumes that the sanyaku stays at 7 men...