Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Hatsu 2024

[Asashosakari 19,885]

Long streaks, short ballot. Let's make the most of it.

 1. Hoshoryu       12  [score?]
 2. Kotonowaka     11  [score?]
 3. Shirokuma       9*
 4. Oshoumi         9
 5. Gonoyama        7
 6. Takerufuji      7*
 7. Daieisho        6  [score?]
 8. Daiseizan       6
 9. Atamifuji       5
10. Satorufuji      5*
11. Wakaikari       5*
12. Onosato         4*

TB: [pick?]

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

• For sanyaku: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.
• For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

(For clarification: If you're expecting an outright makekoshi for one of the sanyaku high-rankers, just predict MK, exact records are only needed on the kachikoshi side of things.)

First tie-breaker: From among those 12 guys up there and the further 8 rikishi who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak (7 'veterans' + newcomer Haruyama), please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 20. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Sanyaku count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 11 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hoshoryu.

Extra tie-breakers, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number, followed by proximity of their sanyaku rikishi guesses to the correct records (one-by-one in ballot order).

Final tie-breaker: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi 2pm JST.

-----

Simplified entry template:

 1. Hoshoryu W-L
 2. Kotonowaka W-L
 3. Shirokuma KKMK
 4. Oshoumi KKMK
 5. Gonoyama KKMK
 6. Takerufuji KKMK
 7. Daieisho W-L
 8. Daiseizan KKMK
 9. Atamifuji KKMK
10. Satorufuji KKMK
11. Wakaikari KKMK
12. Onosato KKMK

TB xx

-----

Good luck!

[Athenayama 1,103]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Gonoyama KK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 9-6
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji KK
10. Satorufuji KK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 14

[Profomisakari 882]

 1. Hoshoryu       12  11
 2. Kotonowaka     11  10
 3. Shirokuma       9* KK
 4. Oshoumi         9  MK
 5. Gonoyama        7   KK
 6. Takerufuji      7* KK
 7. Daieisho        6  10
 8. Daiseizan       6 MK
 9. Atamifuji       5 KK
10. Satorufuji      5* KK
11. Wakaikari       5* KK
12. Onosato         4* KK

TB: [pick?]           15

[ryafuji 817]

 1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Gonoyama MK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 8-7
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji MK
10. Satorufuji KK
11. Wakaikari MK
12. Onosato KK

TB 12

[Sakura 1,509]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Gonoyama KK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 8-7
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji MK
10. Satorufuji KK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 12

[Bunbukuchagama 810]

 1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Gonoyama MK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 9-6
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji KK
10. Satorufuji KK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 14

[Ryoshishokunin 329]

LKS Jan 23

1. 8
2. 9
3. kk
4. mk
5. mk
6. kk
7. kk (8)
8. kk
9. mk
10. kk
11. mk
12. kk

TB 11

Edited January 13, 2024 by Ryoshishokunin

[WAKATAKE 2,726]

1. Hoshoryu 10-5
 2. Kotonowaka 12-3
 3. Shirokuma MK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Gonoyama MK
 6. Takerufuji MK
 7. Daieisho 9-6
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji MK
10. Satorufuji KK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 13

[Hakuryuho 335]

1. Hoshoryu 9-6
 2. Kotonowaka 10-5
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi MK
 5. Gonoyama MK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 10-5
 8. Daiseizan KK
 9. Atamifuji KK
10. Satorufuji MK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 12

[Holleshoryu 17]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotonowaka 9-6
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Gonoyama MK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 9-6
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji KK
10. Satorufuji MK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 13

[Tetsuba 33]

1. Hoshoryu 11-4
 2. Kotonowaka 10-5
 3. Shirokuma KK
 4. Oshoumi KK
 5. Gonoyama KK
 6. Takerufuji KK
 7. Daieisho 9-6
 8. Daiseizan MK
 9. Atamifuji MK
10. Satorufuji MK
11. Wakaikari KK
12. Onosato KK

TB 13

[chishafuwaku 476]

1. Hoshoryu         10
 2. Kotonowaka   10
 3. Shirokuma            KK
 4. Oshoumi               KK
 5. Gonoyama            KK
 6. Takerufuji              KK
 7. Daieisho           8
 8. Daiseizan              KK
 9. Atamifuji               KK
10. Satorufuji             KK
11. Wakaikari             KK
12. Onosato                KK

TB 12

[Asashosakari 19,885]

9 Hoshoryu
9 Kotonowaka
+ Shirokuma
- Oshoumi
+ Gonoyama
+ Takerufuji
8 Daieisho
- Daiseizan
+ Atamifuji
- Satorufuji
- Wakaikari
+ Onosato

TB 11

[Asashosakari 19,885]

Finally catching up... The selection stats of the Hatsu LKS edition:

Player	Hosho		K'waka		Shiro	Oshou	Gonoy	Takeru	Daiei		Daisei	Atami	Satoru	Wakai	Onosa	TB	Cons
Athenayama	+	11-4	-	9-6	+	-	+	+	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	+	14	1.24
Profomisakari	+	11-4	+	10-5	+	-	+	+	+	10-5	-	+	+	+	+	15	1.30
ryafuji	+	11-4	-	9-6	+	-	-	+	-	8-7	-	-	+	-	+	12	1.54
Sakura	-	10-5	-	9-6	+	-	+	+	-	8-7	-	-	+	+	+	12	1.30
Bunbukuchagama	-	10-5	-	9-6	+	+	-	+	+	9-6	-	+	+	+	+	14	1.24
Ryoshishokunin	-	8-7	-	9-6	+	-	-	+	-	8-7	+	-	+	-	+	11	1.64
WAKATAKE	-	10-5	+	12-3	-	+	-	-	+	9-6	-	-	+	+	+	13	1.88
Hakuryuho	-	9-6	+	10-5	+	-	-	+	+	10-5	+	+	-	+	+	12	1.54
Holleshoryu	+	11-4	-	9-6	+	+	-	+	+	9-6	-	+	-	+	+	13	1.43
Tetsuba	+	11-4	+	10-5	+	+	+	+	+	9-6	-	-	-	+	+	13	1.54
chishafuwaku	-	10-5	+	10-5	+	+	+	+	-	8-7	+	+	+	+	+	12	1.54
Asashosakari	-	9-6	-	9-6	+	-	+	+	-	8-7	-	+	-	-	+	11	1.54
	5:7		5:7		11:1	5:7	6:6	11:1	7:5		3:9	7:5	8:4	9:3	12:0
Results	- (KK)		+		+	+	-	+	+		+	-	-	+	+

The short ballot was further reduced by Onosato's unsurprising all-KK predictions, with Shirokuma and Takerufuji also attracting near-unanimous support.

All three sanyaku rikishi were given easily splittable selections this basho. Ozeki Hoshoryu was sent towards an 11-4 target record, same as in Kyushu, while the two sekiwake received new targets: 10-5 for Kotonowaka (one win higher than Kyushu) and 9-6 for Daieisho (two wins lower).

No lineups that voted entirely with the majority were produced, but Athenayama and Bunbukuchagame came close by disagreeing only with one 7:5 split each. Tetsuba and WAKATAKE went with 5 minority selections, though the latter was by far the bigger overall outlier by taking out the sole MK picks against Shirokuma and Takerufuji.

The first two entries made, by Athenayama and Profomisakari, were also the most similar ones differing just in their Kotonowaka pick. Conversely, Asashosakari and WAKATAKE only had three picks in common, followed by Ryoshishokunin and Tetsuba with four.

More than half the field went for 12 or 13 as their tie-breaker choice, alongside a couple 11's and 14's and one 15.

[Asashosakari 19,885]

I failed to note during the selection period that off-ballot rikishi Minorufuji was on the Day 1 kyujo list, my apologies for that.

Day 7

Rookie Haruyama was the first to draw metaphorical blood for Hatsu basho, starting off his fifth ranked tournament with four straight wins to make his way onto the next ballot.

Day 8

And the first score came courtesy of a newcomer as well with shin-juryo Takerufuji's 8-0 start. A point for everybody bar one.

Day 9

The first minor surprise of the basho was provided in negative fashion by Satorufuji, whose makekoshi (let alone such an early one) was only expected by a minority of entrants. Much less surprising: Onosato's quick KK. Promotion-seeking sekiwake Kotonowaka also achieved kachikoshi already, but still needed another two wins for his target.

The first standings:

Day 9: 3/12 Decisions, TB 4-18
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Asashosakari	3	11
2	Hakuryuho	3	12
3	Holleshoryu	3	13
3	Tetsuba	3	13
5	Ryoshishokunin	2	11
6	chishafuwaku	2	12
6	ryafuji	2	12
6	Sakura	2	12
9	Athenayama	2	14
9	Bunbukuchagama	2	14
11	Profomisakari	2	15
12	WAKATAKE	1	13

 

[Asashosakari 19,885]

Day 10

KK for ozeki Hoshoryu, three wins to go for his target score. The off-ballot section saw its first rikishi fail to progress; formerly hyped Oshoryu was unable to add a fifth kachikoshi to his tally in his return from three missed tournaments.

Day 11

The first sanyaku member of the ballot hit his target: Kotonowaka only needed 11 days to collect the necessary 10 wins, leading the yusho race alone at this point. His 4-KK heyamate Kotokenryu wasn't so fortunate and dropped to MK to miss out on ballot inclusion.

Day 11: 4/12 Decisions, TB 5-16
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Hakuryuho	4	12
2	Tetsuba	4	13
3	Asashosakari	3	11
4	chishafuwaku	3	12
5	Holleshoryu	3	13
6	Profomisakari	3	15
7	Ryoshishokunin	2	11
8	ryafuji	2	12
8	Sakura	2	12
10	WAKATAKE	2	13
11	Athenayama	2	14
11	Bunbukuchagama	2	14

 

[Asashosakari 19,885]

Day 12

Lots of new developments on this day, led by Gonoyama falling to makekoshi. Makushita prospect duo Wakaikari and Daiseizan did better.

In addition, Awanokuni successfully applied for the Haru ballot with his fifth KK, while Yokomaru fell short (by going kyujo on this day, to boot). Trivia side note: After 29 ranked tournaments, Awanokuni has yet to score better than 5-2 or worse than 2-5.

Daiseizan only attracted three KK votes, but one entrant managed to score all three points on the day anyway. However, one other player also found himself at the other end of the spectrum with zero. Completing the symmetrical distribution, the rest of the field saw five ones and five twos.

An astonishing perfect score leads the way:

Day 12: 7/12 Decisions, TB 8-14
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Hakuryuho	7	12
2	chishafuwaku	5	12
3	Holleshoryu	5	13
3	Tetsuba	5	13
5	Ryoshishokunin	4	11
6	WAKATAKE	4	13
7	Bunbukuchagama	4	14
8	Profomisakari	4	15
9	Asashosakari	3	11
10	ryafuji	3	12
10	Sakura	3	12
12	Athenayama	3	14

 

[Asashosakari 19,885]

At this point the number of potential LKS yusho winners numbered five despite Hakuryuho's strong lead. All three pursuers as well as WAKATAKE still had sufficiently many differing picks to close the gap to first place. A brief summary:

• Hakuryuho only needed one decision to go his way, requiring just a makekoshi by Oshoumi (6-6) for outright victory. In addition, he had a handful of more convoluted paths to the yusho even if Oshoumi didn't pick up the losing record.
• Tetsuba would win the yusho outright if three of the five remaining results broke his way: Hoshoryu (10-2) hitting his 11-4 target, Oshoumi getting kachikoshi, and Atamifuji (5-7) going makekoshi. The results by Daieisho (7-5, target 9-6) and Shirokuma (6-6) would be irrelevant then. However, Tetsuba would not win - or even tie for the lead - with any other results.
• The other three contenders chishafuwaku, Holleshoryu and WAKATAKE were only able to tie for the lead through various complex scenarios, and would need specific tie-breaker finishes on top to secure the title, so their outcomes partly depended on the last two off-ballot rikishi Hokutenkai and Sasakiyama (both 3-3) as well. At minimum, they required the following:
  • Holleshoryu: 11-4 target for Hoshoryu, KK for Oshoumi, KK for Atamifuji
  • chishafuwaku: KK for Oshoumi, less than 9-6 target for Daieisho
  • WAKATAKE: less than 11-4 target for Hoshoryu, MK for Shirokuma, KK for Oshoumi, MK for Atamifuji

Day 13

In what might be a first, nothing of direct relevance to LKS happened on this Day 13. Except...

Day 14

...having aggravated a knee injury in his Day 13 loss to fellow ozeki Kirishima, Hoshoryu decided to withdraw from Days 14 and 15. Stuck with 10 wins to the end because of it, that immediately killed Holleshoryu and Tetsuba's yusho hopes.

Moving on through the day chronologically...

The two off-ballot rikishi were in action, and both Hokutenkai and Sasakiyama fell to 3-4. That was slightly beneficial to WAKATAKE as it eliminated the potential tiebreaker competition on his limited pathways to the yusho.

Next up, juryo debutant Oshoumi won for the fifth day in a row and clocked his 8th victory to retain his spot on the LKS ballot. That was clearly bad news for Hakuryuho as it cost him all the "obvious" routes to the title.

And lastly, Atamifuji dropped to makekoshi in his first exposure to joi competition, ending his run of five consecutive kachikoshi (the last four of them all with 11+ wins). That knocked off equal amounts of yusho possibilities for Hakuryuho and chishafuwaku, but did not eliminate them entirely.

In addition the day saw sekiwake Daieisho secure his kachikoshi at 8-6, which extended the decision about his 9-6 target record to senshuraku. The other still-open outcome pertained to Shirokuma, who had moved from 6-6 to 7-7 with a Day 13 loss and Day 14 win.

The penultimate standings, still with the same nominal leader:

Day 14: 10/12 Decisions, TB 10-11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Hakuryuho	8	12
2	chishafuwaku	7	12
2	Tetsuba	7	13
2	WAKATAKE	7	13
5	Ryoshishokunin	6	11
6	Bunbukuchagama	6	14
6	Holleshoryu	6	13
8	Sakura	5	12
9	Asashosakari	4	11
10	Profomisakari	4	15
10	ryafuji	4	12
12	Athenayama	3	14

Only Ryoshishokunin and Asashosakari were still able to hit the TB at this point (requiring KK for Shirokuma), although for the latter it wouldn't save him from makekoshi anyway.

Incredibly, leading Hakuryuho was not actually the yusho frontrunner now:

• A loss by Shirokuma was enough for WAKATAKE to tie for the lead and win the yusho in a bracket playoff, regardless of the outcome of Daieisho's match.
• A win by Shirokuma, however, would mean that:
  • a win by Daieisho would give Hakuryuho an outright yusho,
  • a loss by Daieisho would give chishafuwaku a bracket playoff yusho.

[Asashosakari 19,885]

Day 15

7-7 Shirokuma was paired with demotion-threatened Chiyosakae for his final match, and successfully extended his debut KK streak to the 10th tournament. WAKATAKE was now out of the race, and the LKS decision came down to the third-last bout of the tournament...

...where Daieisho defeated Asanoyama to clinch his 9-6 target at the last minute. And the yusho went to - Hakuryuho! You know, for a winner who had a share of the lead all basho long and led alone since Day 12, that was perhaps the most nailbiting LKS outcome ever. It's the fourth career yusho for Hakuryuho.

The final standings:

Day 15: 12/12 Decisions, TB 11
Pos	Player	Pts	TB
1	Hakuryuho	10	12
2	Tetsuba	9	13
3	Bunbukuchagama	8	14
3	chishafuwaku	8	12
3	Holleshoryu	8	13
3	WAKATAKE	8	13
7	Ryoshishokunin	7	11
8	Profomisakari	6	15
8	Sakura	6	12
10	Asashosakari	5	11
11	Athenayama	5	14
11	ryafuji	5	12

Tetsuba left the yusho race early, but ends up taking the sole runner-up slot, and the TB bonus turns out to be decisive for Ryoshishokunin's KK.

The ballot for Haru 2024:

 1. Hoshoryu       13
 2. Kotonowaka     12
 3. Shirokuma      10*
 4. Oshoumi        10
    Gonoyama        7
 5. Takerufuji      8*
 6. Daieisho        7
 7. Daiseizan       7
    Atamifuji       5
    Satorufuji      5*
 8. Wakaikari       6*
 9. Onosato         5*
10. Haruyama        5*
11. Awanokuni       5
---
12. Tokihayate      4

Three out, three in, for another short ballot in March.

Edited May 9, 2024 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,885]

Scores for banzuke purposes:

Hakuryuho 11 (10+Top)
Tetsuba 9
Bunbukuchagama 8
chishafuwaku 8
Holleshoryu 8
WAKATAKE 8
Ryoshishokunin 8 (7+TB)
Profomisakari 6
Sakura 6
Asashosakari 6 (5+TB)
Athenayama 5
ryafuji 5

Total: 88 / 12 = 7.33 ---> no adjustment

First time since Nagoya 2022 that the results can be used as-is.

The banzuke for Haru 2024:

chishafuwaku (Ye 8-7)    Y   Asashosakari (Yw 6-9)
Tetsuba (Ow 9-6 J)       O   Profomisakari (Oe 6-9)
Bunbukuchagama (Se 8-7)  S   Hakuryuho (M2e 11-4 Y)
Holleshoryu (Ke 8-7)     K   WAKATAKE (M3e 8-7)
Ryoshishokunin (NR 8-7)  M1  Yarimotsu (M1w kosho)
Sakura (Kw 6-9)          M2  ryafuji (Sw 5-10)
Athenayama (M1e 5-10)    M3  Fashiritētā (M2w 0-0-15)

Kyushu yusho winner chishafuwaku didn't follow up in quite as excellent fashion but still achieved kachikoshi, while senior yokozuna Asashosakari has had back-to-back makekoshi to find himself at risk of involuntary retirement depending on his Haru result.

In other news: Ozeki Tetsuba has posted his fourth consecutive runner-up result (one doten followed by three jun), with two before his promotion and two since. Meanwhile, ryafuji's shot at immediate re-promotion following his post-Kyushu demotion from ozeki unfortunately ended deep in makekoshi territory. Profomisakari will be kadoban for Haru basho.

[Hakuryuho 335]

You had me at the edge of my seat with your suspenseful write-up @Asashosakari,
glad I could channel my inner Takerufuji and win the yusho on the final day against all (some) odds 

If I'm not mistaken this is the 4th year in a row I have won a yusho since I started participating , so I guess I've fulfilled my duty for 2024 already ;)

[Asashosakari 19,885]

1 minute ago, Hakuryuho said:

If I'm not mistaken this is the 4th year in a row I have won a yusho since I started participating , so I guess I've fulfilled my duty for 2024 already ;)

Indeed. Nagoya 2021, Hatsu 2022, Nagoya 2023, and now Hatsu 2024.

Nagoya 2025 next?