Tomorrow's matches

[sadanoumi_is_my_favorite 8]

All of the threads I've seen on sumoforum have been by-and-large reviewing past matches. I think it would be interesting to see user try to predict the next day's matches: the real value would come from discussion why one rikishi might beat another. I realize it is pretty close to the start of Makuuchi day 12 so, with deference to moderators, I will try to keep this going through day 15. I'd welcome predictions or criticisms of my own predictions!

The format for this post will be WINNER over LOSER followed by a number between 1 and 5 that indicates my confidence in pick. 5 is close to certainty and 1 is almost a toss up. The next day's matches can be found at http://www.sumo.or.jp/en/index

Takekaze over Chiyotairyu - 4

Hidenoumi over Amuru - 4

Nishikigi over Chiyootori- 2

Sadanoumi over Daishomaru - 4

Sokokurai over Seirou - 4

Mitakeumi over Shohozan - 3

Osunaarashi over Endo - 4

Gagamaru over Takanoiwa - 2

Tokushoryu over Tochoizan - 1 - a close matchup

Takayasu over Toyonoshima - 4

Tochinoshin over Daieshou - 3.5

Aoiyama over Tamawashi - 3ish

Ichinojo over Yoshikaze - 3

Kaisei over Myogiryu - 4

Shodai over Okinoumi- 1

Takarafuji over Ikioi- 2

Kisenosato over Terunofuji - 5

Kakuryu over Kotoshougiku- 4

Hakuho over Goeido- 4

Harumafuji over Kotoyuki- 3

Nishikigi - Chiyootori – this is a hard match to call. Nishikigi has impressed me this basho though while I think Chiyootori might be complacent / demotivated. I really shouldn't consider my own preference but I'd much rather have Nishikigi win.

Osunaarashi - Endo – Endo has had good performances in his Makuuchi return and Osunaarashi just lost but I think that skill-wise Osunaarashi blows him out of the water.

Kaisei- Myogiryu: I am more confident than I should be but Kaisei has been doing sanyaku-level sumo and will be fighting hard to get back to .500

Shodai - Okinoumi: Shodai I think is the more natural rikishi although Okinoumi will be fighting to avoid makekoshi. It is hard to say but my gut says Shodai with mild reservations.

I have to go with the Yokozuna on the final three bouts although Harumafuji- Kotoyuki will be a great fight because they're almost yin/yang wrestlers. If Kotoyuki can keep it a tsuki match I think he might be able to win but really I have too much respect for Harumafuji to bet against him.

Kakuryu - Kotoshougiku will be an interesting bout as well but I'd be suprised if Kakuryu lets one pass, he's too sturdy and I think can withstand Kotoshougiku even on the edge of the dohyo.

Again, I'd be very eager to hear what anyone else thinks might happen!

Edit - with the time being 1:30am MST and an improbable prediction record of 0-6 I'm calling it a night. I'll write a post eating crow in the morning and trying to predict day 13. My missed guesses are partly due to my inexperience of predicting sumo (aside from blanket statements that Hakuho will do well) but it seems also that the brevity of sumo makes it intrinsically more difficult to predict than other sports. Either way, doing so is interesting and I had a good time trying to anticipate matchups; good night.

Edited May 19, 2016 by sadanoumi_is_my_favorite

[Randomitsuki 2,898]

Hey there,

if you like to predict sumo bouts, you might compete against others in doing so.

There are many sumo games out there which all rely on either predicting tomorrow's bouts or predicting the entire basho.

For starters, check out

http://www.strongoak.net/sb

There you will find an overview of the most popular games. We are always happy to have new players!

Oh, and don't worry about your prediction performance today. Lots of close matches and upsets so far. I did start with 2-5 into Makuuchi.

Edited May 19, 2016 by Randomitsuki

[egparis18 622]

the real value would come from discussion why one rikishi might beat another.

I think so too. Sumo games can be cold and lonely work - which I say with all due respect to Randomitsuki, who might know if any of them allow for a discussion between players before making picks.

[orandashoho 720]

the real value would come from discussion why one rikishi might beat another.

I think so too. Sumo games can be cold and lonely work - which I say with all due respect to Randomitsuki, who might know if any of them allow for a discussion between players before making picks.

Oh! Oh! Yaocho!

[Asashosakari 20,225]

I have nothing against this thread at all, but to prevent possible disappointment on the part of the OP: There are 300+ bouts each basho in makuuchi alone. For most people on this forum who've watched more than a few tournaments, spending more than 15 seconds to ponder the relative merits of an upcoming Seiro-Sokokurai bout - and then write about it - is probably not something they're going to do. So I'm not sure how much untapped potential there really is for long-form results predictions and discussion of them. I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.

All the same, welcome aboard the forum!

[egparis18 622]

the real value would come from discussion why one rikishi might beat another.

I think so too. Sumo games can be cold and lonely work - which I say with all due respect to Randomitsuki, who might know if any of them allow for a discussion between players before making picks.

Oh! Oh! Yaocho!

It's a fair cop!

[Kishinoyama 624]

I used to like reading the old rikishi profiles in Sumo World and the predictions underneath about their upcoming tournament records.

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

SIMF: As Rando said, there are plenty of games that test all manner of prediction skills at that link. Give some of them a go next tournament. We are always happy to welcome new gamers.

[kuroimori 1,634]

All of the threads I've seen on sumoforum have been by-and-large reviewing past matches. I think it would be interesting to see user try to predict the next day's matches: the real value would come from discussion why one rikishi might beat another. I realize it is pretty close to the start of Makuuchi day 12 so, with deference to moderators, I will try to keep this going through day 15. I'd welcome predictions or criticisms of my own predictions!

The format for this post will be WINNER over LOSER followed by a number between 1 and 5 that indicates my confidence in pick. 5 is close to certainty and 1 is almost a toss up. The next day's matches can be found at http://www.sumo.or.jp/en/index

Takekaze over Chiyotairyu - 4

Hidenoumi over Amuru - 4

Nishikigi over Chiyootori- 2

Sadanoumi over Daishomaru - 4

Sokokurai over Seirou - 4

Mitakeumi over Shohozan - 3

Osunaarashi over Endo - 4

Gagamaru over Takanoiwa - 2

Tokushoryu over Tochoizan - 1 - a close matchup

Takayasu over Toyonoshima - 4

Tochinoshin over Daieshou - 3.5

Aoiyama over Tamawashi - 3ish

Ichinojo over Yoshikaze - 3

Kaisei over Myogiryu - 4

Shodai over Okinoumi- 1

Takarafuji over Ikioi- 2

Kisenosato over Terunofuji - 5

Kakuryu over Kotoshougiku- 4

Hakuho over Goeido- 4

Harumafuji over Kotoyuki- 3

Nishikigi - Chiyootori – this is a hard match to call. Nishikigi has impressed me this basho though while I think Chiyootori might be complacent / demotivated. I really shouldn't consider my own preference but I'd much rather have Nishikigi win.

Osunaarashi - Endo – Endo has had good performances in his Makuuchi return and Osunaarashi just lost but I think that skill-wise Osunaarashi blows him out of the water.

Kaisei- Myogiryu: I am more confident than I should be but Kaisei has been doing sanyaku-level sumo and will be fighting hard to get back to .500

Shodai - Okinoumi: Shodai I think is the more natural rikishi although Okinoumi will be fighting to avoid makekoshi. It is hard to say but my gut says Shodai with mild reservations.

I have to go with the Yokozuna on the final three bouts although Harumafuji- Kotoyuki will be a great fight because they're almost yin/yang wrestlers. If Kotoyuki can keep it a tsuki match I think he might be able to win but really I have too much respect for Harumafuji to bet against him.

Kakuryu - Kotoshougiku will be an interesting bout as well but I'd be suprised if Kakuryu lets one pass, he's too sturdy and I think can withstand Kotoshougiku even on the edge of the dohyo.

Again, I'd be very eager to hear what anyone else thinks might happen!

Edit - with the time being 1:30am MST and an improbable prediction record of 0-6 I'm calling it a night. I'll write a post eating crow in the morning and trying to predict day 13. My missed guesses are partly due to my inexperience of predicting sumo (aside from blanket statements that Hakuho will do well) but it seems also that the brevity of sumo makes it intrinsically more difficult to predict than other sports. Either way, doing so is interesting and I had a good time trying to anticipate matchups; good night.

That would have earned you a 10-11 score for Makuuchi part of the Sekitori Toto Game. If you would have guessed today's Juryo bouts 7-7, the overall result would have been a loss (4th to last ) - so you would have joined me :-) Come on and give it a try! Your bout outcome rating system will be handy for the other games as well!

[sadanoumi_is_my_favorite 8]

I have nothing against this thread at all, but to prevent possible disappointment on the part of the OP: There are 300+ bouts each basho in makuuchi alone. For most people on this forum who've watched more than a few tournaments, spending more than 15 seconds to ponder the relative merits of an upcoming Seiro-Sokokurai bout - and then write about it - is probably not something they're going to do. So I'm not sure how much untapped potential there really is for long-form results predictions and discussion of them. I'll be happy to be proven wrong though.

All the same, welcome aboard the forum!

Thanks for the welcome. It does seem foolhardy to do match predictions on the forum, plus I don't think many people would be interested in bad guesses. I do think, however, that there could be some worth in trying to pick out the upcoming matches that seem most evenly matched. This approach seems more facilitating of discussion but I would ask: would it be more appropriate to include as part of the Basho Talk thread?

I'll start from yokozuna and work down.

•Hakuho - Kisenosato: I won't talk much about this because it is the biggest bout so far this basho and being discussed in other places but I wonder if its yusho relevance is clouding the actual matchup. Kisenosato is undefeated but this is also his first bout this basho against a Yokozuna and I would be very surprised if Hakuho lets his guard down on such an important match. Kisenosato will need to bring incredible sumo to the dohyo and even at his best it will be hard for him to beat an in-tune Hakuho.

•Harumafuji - Kakuryu: I'd be curious to hear what people think about this matchup. Harumafuji is probably the better rikishi and has a (26-14) advantage over Kakuryu but they are both 10-2 this basho and I thought it was interesting that Harumafuji only leads (4-3) since Kakuryu's promotion to yokozuna.

•Kaisei - Ichinojo: This is a great matchup because they are physically very similar – Ichinojo is only about 5kg heavier. Kaisei also seems to be one of the only rikishi who could go head to head against Ichinojo in yotsu-zumo. I think Kaisei will win, having more experience and better stability (plus achievable kachikoshi) but I think this could a long fights.

•Takarafuji - Okinoumi: Also very hard to anticipate: the style of neither rikishi really places him at an advantage. I think Okinoumi has in general the better tachiai but Takarafuji is studier and fights better on the edge.

•Daieisho - Takayasu: Takayasu has the experience and I think more bulk but Daieisho is definitely more exciting at this point. I wonder if Takayasu, having secured kachikoshi, will be too relaxed and be surprised by the younger Daieisho.

•Sadanoumi - Gagamaru: Depends on which Gagamaru shows up at the dohyo. Not many rikishi, and especially not Sadanoumi, can out-oshi Gagamaru although it is an interesting matchup because Gagamaru is so (I don't know how technical this term is, but) topheavy, which Sadanoumi often exploits by redirecting his opponent's thrusts to try pulling them out of the ring. I'll also be very curious to see what happens if they go to each others belts, which I think might favor Sadanoumi (at least more than a tsuki bout). If the match lasts more than about four seconds I think it'll go to Sadanoumi but Gagamaru could win at the tachiai.

Edited May 19, 2016 by sadanoumi_is_my_favorite

[wuli 67]

a hakuho win is moving toward the boring

a kisenosato win is moving toward the spectacular

i choose kise'

[egparis18 622]

Hello sadanoumi_is_my_favourite,

I think you're right about Hakuho-Kisenosato.

My mind nearly goes blank when I try to pick between Harumafuji and Kakuryu. Don't know. Probably Harumafuji, but what if Kakuryu gets both hands to the back of his mawashi?

Ikioi-Goeido. Goeido. Ikioi's tired.

Ichinojo.

Okinoumi.

I know what you mean about Daeisho, but I don't think Takayasu will drop his guard.

Sadanoumi.

À suivre