Haru 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

[Blue_Wolf 24]

Breaking news-just got hold of the transcript of a phone call held last night. I translated it to English. (This is for ronnie and YBF-just to save you some time..)

Ring ring..Ring ring..

Kotoshougiku: "Moshimoshi?"

Hakuhou:- "Hey Giku.."

K: "Yokozuna.. A bit late for a courtesy call.."

H:" I have an offer for you. You know of course that we have to get Kaku his tsuna, and we have to make it look good.."

K: "Yes, but I don't usually.."

H: "Shut up and listen.. You beat me tomorrow - maybe give me an extra shove at the edge so I can fall and break a finger or two.."

K: "Are you sure about this?"

H: "Sure I'm sure. Ama will lose to Goueidou too."

K" And what's in it for me?'

H: "Your kachikoshi of course-no way in hell you beat two of us in three days in your current condition unless I say so.."

K: "I'm listening.."

H: "Day 14, you beat Ama and get your KK, I lose to Kaku either by not showing up or just by losing on the dohyo. That leaves me with 2 losses, Ama out of it, and Kaku still with one loss. On senshuraku you lose to Kaku, since you already have your KK. The rest doesn't matter."

K :"OK, tomorrow then.."

H: "No mistakes, yes??"

K: "Yes.. I mean no.."

It is a nice joke in Kintamayama's word and it also could be a reality in another men's mind or world.

[Lost ballet fan 29]

I used to be depressed about the conspiracy thing. But I’ve long since come to appreciate them. Especially now. Never has there been such a variety and such a steady flow of new, exciting prospects. We are treated, among others to

The Never Must There Be A Third Mongolian Yokozuna Be Allowed Conspiracy

(There was one to not allow a second one, either, Can’t remember what happenend to it.)

The Let’s Create A Third Mongolian Yokozuna Conspiracy.

It’s only just sprung up. Good stuff!

The Let There Be A Japanese Yokozuna Or At Least Basho Winner Conspiracy.

Everyone is in on that one. It’s so popular that it’s entering it’s 11th and 7th year respectively, and has fairly recently spawned a cute litte offspring, the Always Keep The Leaderboard Close Conspiracy.

The Never Let Hakuho Get To 31, 32 Or 33 Bashos Conspiracy.

Engineered years ago, deviated from the then fashionable Hakuho Must Never Get The Most Zensho Yushos Movement.

Plus of course the Always Let Goueido And Kisenosato Win Conspiracy, which has taken a few hits recently, but is due for a happy resurgence.

And that’s just on the top of my head. I’m sure I’ve forgotten a few. It’s all so exciting!

(Source: well, you know...)

[Vikanohara 171]

Must remember to like this tomorrow. (Whatever above, it is funny...)

[Kaioshoryu 68]

I used to be depressed about the conspiracy thing. But I’ve long since come to appreciate them. Especially now. Never has there been such a variety and such a steady flow of new, exciting prospects. We are treated, among others to

The Never Must There Be A Third Mongolian Yokozuna Be Allowed Conspiracy

(There was one to not allow a second one, either, Can’t remember what happenend to it.)

The Let’s Create A Third Mongolian Yokozuna Conspiracy.

It’s only just sprung up. Good stuff!

The Let There Be A Japanese Yokozuna Or At Least Basho Winner Conspiracy.

Everyone is in on that one. It’s so popular that it’s entering it’s 11th and 7th year respectively, and has fairly recently spawned a cute litte offspring, the Always Keep The Leaderboard Close Conspiracy.

The Never Let Hakuho Get To 31, 32 Or 33 Bashos Conspiracy.

Engineered years ago, deviated from the then fashionable Hakuho Must Never Get The Most Zensho Yushos Movement.

Plus of course the Always Let Goueido And Kisenosato Win Conspiracy, which has taken a few hits recently, but is due for a happy resurgence.

And that’s just on the top of my head. I’m sure I’ve forgotten a few. It’s all so exciting!

(Source: well, you know...)

Fantastic post! I especially like the part i bolded. If ozumo is rampant with conspiracies, then why haven't we gotten alot of japanese yusho or a japanese yokozuna? Are the japanese rikishi so hopeless that they can't even execute yaocho properly??

[Asashosakari 20,252]

In the end, for some people Ozumo can only prove to be clean if nothing ever happens that can be construed as "positive" in any shape or form: No yusho can ever be won by anybody for whose career it is helpful, no kadoban ozeki should ever win 8 matches, no sekiwake will ever put together 33 wins again, etc. etc., because every such event is automatically suspect just by the fact that it's happening at all. I wonder if those people ever stop to consider what such a world would look like, and whether they'd still be watching sumo if it actually happened.

Long-time forum members may recall that my university major was economics. Back in the day a joke made the rounds that satirized the exaggerated self-belief of some of its professional members: "Economists have successfully predicted eight out of the last three recessions!" In a particularly amusing twist, reality served up a bit of meta-irony on top of it when the sub-prime crisis hit a few years later, which wasn't expected by most economists, and underestimated in its magnitude even by many of those who did predict it. That's something that's symptomatic of people who are too much in love with their own alleged brilliance and clairvoyance, and it applies just as much to conspiracy theorists as it does to self-deluded professionals; people who suspect the Illuminati behind every corner are the very last people I'd trust to uncover real conspiracies (which undoubtedly exist). Because that takes sound judgment, not just a penchant for turning anything and everything into a storyline.

[CT3* 331]

To be fair, I really don't think that the viewpoint of the average long-time sumo fan falls between the two extremes of 1) everything is part of a vast conspiracy OR 2) all occurrences of yaocho have been completely and utterly eradicated.

I've been reading this forum for a few years but only began posting recently. And it sometimes seems that if anyone even expresses the notion that a bout looked odd to them, they get slapped with the "conspiracy theorist" label.

I love the sport of sumo. So much so that I've traveled to Japan specifically to see it. And no way would I feverishly follow a sport that I thought was fake or scripted. But I'd be lying if I said I didn't wonder about occasional bouts that look funny to me.

Edited March 21, 2014 by CT3*

[Asashosakari 20,252]

To be fair, I really don't think that the viewpoint of the average long-time sumo fan falls between the two extremes of 1) everything is part of a vast conspiracy OR 2) all occurrences of yaocho have been completely and utterly eradicated.

Regarding #1: Not everything altogether, just everything that can be described as useful for a high-profile rikishi or for Ozumo as a whole. (Never mind that if nothing "useful" ever happened again, that in itself should then be very suspicious...) And yes, I do believe a handful of people on this forum pretty much hold that mindset. And some ex-members did, too, but they've stopped coming here since - and for their own sake I hope they found a more rewarding hobby to spend their time on.

Besides, most sumo conspiracy theorists don't particularly care about yaocho anyway, IMHO - bouts involving, say, any combination of Aoiyama/Takekaze/Toyohibiki/Kitataiki/Sadanofuji could be fake all day long and they wouldn't find it particularly noteworthy. It's not about revealing actual conspiracies, it's about trying to appear clever, and that means focussing on rikishi and bouts that other fans care about.

[CT3* 331]

Trying to "appear clever" on the Internet isn't really a useful endeavor, imo.

And there usually isn't any money in it!

Hard to imagine why anyone would spend their time and energy following something that they felt was fake. Then again, I don't quite get the appeal of WWE for those over the age of puberty. (I dunno...) Different strokes, I guess...

[CT3* 331]

More on topic....I'd really like to see Osunaarashi get his KK! And I really hope that he doesn't have a career plagued by injuries. Thus far, it has been interesting to watch his development. The guy seems really happy to be on the dohyo.

[Asashosakari 20,252]

Eh, pro wrestling is just soap opera for men. :-) I've long suspected that sumo (being quite theatrical in nature compared to most other sports) tends to attract the same type of fans* among non-Japanese people, or at least that subset of them who are looking for a more "high-brow" version than mere pro wrestling. Pro-wrestling fans like to engage in fantasy booking when the official stuff on TV is boring; I believe sumo fans like to engage in yaocho theories for much the same reason. (My customary suggestion to bored fans: Spend more time paying attention to the lower divisions if there isn't enough going on in makuuchi.)

* Not meant as a value judgment; I came from that direction, too.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Masumasumasu 902]

I used to be depressed about the conspiracy thing. But I’ve long since come to appreciate them. Especially now. Never has there been such a variety and such a steady flow of new, exciting prospects. We are treated, among others to

The Never Must There Be A Third Mongolian Yokozuna Be Allowed Conspiracy

(There was one to not allow a second one, either, Can’t remember what happenend to it.)

The Let’s Create A Third Mongolian Yokozuna Conspiracy.

It’s only just sprung up. Good stuff!

The Let There Be A Japanese Yokozuna Or At Least Basho Winner Conspiracy.

Everyone is in on that one. It’s so popular that it’s entering it’s 11th and 7th year respectively, and has fairly recently spawned a cute litte offspring, the Always Keep The Leaderboard Close Conspiracy.

The Never Let Hakuho Get To 31, 32 Or 33 Bashos Conspiracy.

Engineered years ago, deviated from the then fashionable Hakuho Must Never Get The Most Zensho Yushos Movement.

Plus of course the Always Let Goueido And Kisenosato Win Conspiracy, which has taken a few hits recently, but is due for a happy resurgence.

And that’s just on the top of my head. I’m sure I’ve forgotten a few. It’s all so exciting!

(Source: well, you know...)

Fantastic post! I especially like the part i bolded. If ozumo is rampant with conspiracies, then why haven't we gotten alot of japanese yusho or a japanese yokozuna? Are the japanese rikishi so hopeless that they can't even execute yaocho properly??

Because conspiracy theorists are freaking crackpots....Children.....Schmucks.

[JariM 29]

Third Mongolian Yokozuna Conspiracy.

On the surface this might make as much sense as any other Sumo Conspiracy. And to be honest the Mongolian back scratching club might make even more sense.

But the question is: what's in it for the rikishi possibly involved?

Hakuho.

Nothing much. He is the Yokozuna at the moment.

Harumafuji:

Plus:

He could anticipate Kakuryu to return to his usual 8-10 wins per basho avarage. If Hauramuji does better than that he wouldnt be "the other Yokozuna" anymore. He'd be the second best Yokozuna. That would take some heat off his back for sure.

Minus:

Kakuryu might exceed him. That would put even more heat on him!

Too much of a gamble if you ask me...

[Randomitsuki 2,900]

To those who decorated my noggin with a tinfoil hat, I am willing to rephrase my question in hopes to get serious answers (like Itachiyama gave): What do you think is the likelihood of Kakuryu taking his first ever yusho at exactly this basho? If your answer is anything above 20%, please state the reasons:

Is it a) his impeccable record of 11-22 against Harumafuji and 3-32 against Hakuho (in other words, beating both of them has a likelihood of less than 3%)?

Or is it b) the totally dominating performance of Kakuryu this basho? I recall how vigorously we all discussed the unbelievable prowess he demonstrated in Haru, both in this thread and the one about his yokozunahood, a thread which unfortunately died some eight days ago.

In my opinion, if Kakuryu were Yokozuna already, and if the situation were exactly the same as today, I would give him a very small chance of getting the yusho. However, I believe he has an excellent chance in exactly this basho (how convenient), but I fail to base this judgment on statistics or general genkiness.

Conversely, if you think the likelihood is less than 20%, and Kakuryu gets the yusho on Sunday, will you be actually excited about how he accomplished this miracle against all odds? To me, that would be just as much a folly as some of the conspiracy theories floating around sumo.

[Masumasumasu 902]

Endo is the goose that laid the golden egg. The more he wins, the more money the Kyokai makes. So why did he lose seven bouts thus far? There are two (and only two) possibilities:

1) The seven opponents forgot to let Endo win, presumably because they are morons with the mind of a meatloaf.

2) There is no conspiracy.

As far as the Kyokai is concerned, there can be no conspiracy for this reason. Now, could Hak, Kak and Haru be conspiring amongst themselves? I don't know. Sounds pretty darned risky to me. After all, why would Hakuho risk his entire career for a silly yaocho?

[Benevolance 2,534]

Eh, pro wrestling is just soap opera for men. :-) I've long suspected that sumo (being quite theatrical in nature compared to most other sports) tends to attract the same type of fans* among non-Japanese people, or at least that subset of them who are looking for a more "high-brow" version than mere pro wrestling. Pro-wrestling fans like to engage in fantasy booking when the official stuff on TV is boring; I believe sumo fans like to engage in yaocho theories for much the same reason. (My customary suggestion to bored fans: Spend more time paying attention to the lower divisions if there isn't enough going on in makuuchi.)

This probably isn't the time to break out my recently completed Sumo RPG d20 conversion, then...

To switch topics to discussing sumo, instead of discussing sumo discussion, I like to say that Endo looked like a kid in his match with Takayasu yesterday. He just didn't have the stamina yet to compete with a meat-grinder mainstay. Once he develops that strength, though, wow. He'll be very, very good. I hope he gets there sooner than later.

And man, Ishiura. 0-3 to 3-3. And with one of those awesome/weird susotori twist throws. The guy is a lexicon of victory conditions. I get a kick out of his 'chicken scratching' warm up, too. I can't wait to see him in Juryo. A possible 4-3 finish from mk5 is not likely to get him there for May, but maybe Nagoya?

[Asashosakari 20,252]

I can only echo Itachiyama's post, pretty much. I'm a big believer in the existence of "flow"...sometimes something just clicks for a rikishi for a short (or not so short) period of time. The focus on the top-rankers is misplaced here, IMHO - these types of sudden break-out performances happen to less heralded rikishi all the time, too, it's just that nobody finds it all that noteworthy. (Wakakoyu is an ex-komusubi?!)

And besides, anyone who has played sumo games for an extended period of time must've also noticed that extraordinary things happen in them with an alarming frequency, and I'm pretty sure we can all agree that there's no large conspiracy at work in those. As I've insinuated a couple of posts above, too many people find the existence of "patterns" to be suspicious per se, and just don't seem to understand that a lack of such patterns would be just as (or even more) suspicious.

Stuff happens. Sometimes a storyline can be constructed around it in post-hoc fashion. Doesn't mean a storyline is needed for stuff to happen.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Morty 1,518]

I can only echo Itachiyama's post, pretty much. I'm a big believer in the existence of "flow"...sometimes something just clicks for a rikishi for a short (or not so short) period of time. The focus on the top-rankers is misplaced here, IMHO - these types of sudden break-out performances happen to less heralded rikishi all the time, too, it's just that nobody finds it all that noteworthy. (Wakakoyu is an ex-komusubi?!)

And besides, anyone who has played sumo games for an extended period of time must've also noticed that extraordinary things happen in them with an alarming frequency, and I'm pretty sure we can all agree that there's no large conspiracy at work in those. As I've insinuated a couple of posts above, too many people find the existence of "patterns" to be suspicious per se, and just don't seem to understand that a lack of such patterns would be just as (or even more) suspicious.

Stuff happens. Sometimes a storyline can be constructed around it in post-hoc fashion. Doesn't mean a storyline is needed for stuff to happen.

Most other sports have the intangible concept of "form" - players go in and out of form. When in-form they are on, they don't make many mistakes, they give match winning performances, when out of form they can't seem to do anything right. It seems to be that 1% difference between being able to get your body to match up with your will, and to get the whole package to do it exactly right, and not getting that perfect balance. Why would it be any different in sumo?

A whole range of things can knock an in-form sports person out of form and vice versa - injury, personal crisis, lack of training, general brain fade etc. It happens to the very best, but the very best are able to get themselves back in form quickly. For me Kise was in form all last year and has dropped form a bit this year. Myogiru is the same. Kak has done the opposite - he has managed to get himself into a really rich vein of form and is making the most of it (which I don't think he will be able to sustain indefinitely). HF's form yo-yos all the time. These guys are human beings not robots - expecting them to perform to the same standard all the time is a bit silly. They will have good bashos and bad bashos. You can have all the skill in the world, but if you can't make the other bits click as well, that skill is only going to get you so far.

[Lost ballet fan 29]

To those who decorated my noggin with a tinfoil hat, I am willing to rephrase my question in hopes to get serious answers (like Itachiyama gave): What do you think is the likelihood of Kakuryu taking his first ever yusho at exactly this basho? If your answer is anything above 20%, please state the reasons:

Is it a) his impeccable record of 11-22 against Harumafuji and 3-32 against Hakuho (in other words, beating both of them has a likelihood of less than 3%)?

Or is it b) the totally dominating performance of Kakuryu this basho? I recall how vigorously we all discussed the unbelievable prowess he demonstrated in Haru, both in this thread and the one about his yokozunahood, a thread which unfortunately died some eight days ago.

In my opinion, if Kakuryu were Yokozuna already, and if the situation were exactly the same as today, I would give him a very small chance of getting the yusho. However, I believe he has an excellent chance in exactly this basho (how convenient), but I fail to base this judgment on statistics or general genkiness.

Conversely, if you think the likelihood is less than 20%, and Kakuryu gets the yusho on Sunday, will you be actually excited about how he accomplished this miracle against all odds? To me, that would be just as much a folly as some of the conspiracy theories floating around sumo.

Well, I’d say he has a fair chance at this stage (which, incidentally, contradicts every theory I heard before the tournament). But now it ultimately comes down to people. These guys know and possibly like each other well, they are part of a unique micro cosmos that sets them apart to begin with and there has to be some group bonding effect somewhere. No idea how much the nationality plays into it as well.

I haven’t got a problem with that. In many sports, athletes can be generous in certain situations. The tour leader in cycling who will usually let the other guy win if they arrive together is a good example.

What I do have a problem with is the notion that bashos and even Sumo as a whole have a scripted storyline to decide who wins, who gets promoted etc. Especially in face of the overwhelming failure to produce any desired results in such a long time.

But single rikishi helping each other out here and there? It would only be human. Human is fine by me. And Sumo, happily, still seems to be unpredictable enough to most of us. Three months ago, who would have thought that we would have to seriously consider Kakuryu for Yokozuna yaocho theories?

Will he make it? I really have absolutely no idea. And that is exactly as it should be.

[Treblemaker 254]

Boy, my timing was perfect, eh? I dismiss Giku, and he then takes Hak to the cleaners. Frankly, he was "up" for it, and he played his game perfectly.

And For The Love Of Broccoli, what goes through Kise's mind with those Florida tactics? He's trying to psych out Kak? Really? The only man more Zen than Kak is, maybe, Kitataiki. Playing the mind game against someone like Kakuryu is like trying to do a card trick on Stevie Wonder.

HF losing was a surprise, but it makes for a very good final two days.

Conspiracy theories aside, at this point, it's anyone's game. HF wins two, he's got a chance. Hak loses another one, we have scrambled eggs. Best finish to a basho since Kim Kardashian's third implant.

Edited March 21, 2014 by Treblemaker

[Masumasumasu 902]

Did anyone see Endo diss the little boy who offered him a flower after his match today?

I have to say that it pissed me off.

[krindel 688]

Tremble mere mortals, for the hour of the mighty Yoshikaze's sanyaku debut approaches!

Actually, I doubt that the prospect of facing Komusubi Yoshikaze has Hakuho trembling, but still, its really nice to see the guy get there :)

[kuroimori 1,634]

Showtime!

My guess, Kak takes advantage of Hak's injured finger, then Ama continues his sudden slump and Geek gaburi's him outta da dohyo, KK for Geek, aka the one armed bandit.

(if the outcome will be the other way round, I would be once again screwed in many games today...)

Edited March 22, 2014 by kuroimori

[Masumasumasu 902]

Welcome Yokozuna Kakuryu!

I congratulate him but unfortunately this will hasten his retirement. That's the bottom line.

[Masumasumasu 902]

Kotoshogiku is the giant killer this basho! That's my dawg!

[Torabayama 51]

Two days in a row both Yokozuna going down. Epic.