New Bulgarian rikishi in Tagonoura beya

[Kotoviki 16]

The rule of thumb for a 7-0 in makushita is "old rank divided by 10". They've been a little more conservative of late, but I'd be stunned if he lands outside the Ms4-Ms7 area.

of course it could all depend on how it goes in the top of makushita in the next two days I guess..

FWIW, the promotions for 6-1 and 7-0 records tend to be pretty independent of any banzuke "crunches". They always make space for those rikishi, it's the ones who finish 5-2 and 4-3 that suffer from bad banzuke luck.

(Random example: 5-2 promotions from Ms38-Ms42, 6-1 promotions from Ms38-Ms42)

Maybe his oyakata just wants to surprise him with a higher rank than he expects? who knows?

[Jakusotsu 6,402]

Maybe his oyakata just wants to surprise him with a higher rank than he expects? who knows?

Or he simply doesn't have a clue himself, which wouldn't surprise me. (Blinking...)

Seriously, I can't imagine most of the rank and file oyakata having the level of insight Doitsuyama and Asashosakari have when it comes to these technical details.

[Asashosakari 20,290]

Seriously, I can't imagine most of the rank and file oyakata having the level of insight Doitsuyama and Asashosakari have when it comes to these technical details.

I don't know about that. Many oyakata have been on judging duty and therefore on the banzuke committee at some point in their careers, after all, and while the details have changed occasionally, the major movements (7-0, 6-1, 0-7, 0-0-7) seem to be sort of semi-codified for a long time already, so I figure if I can pick up on that, any oyakata who cares can do, too.

If I had to guess, "about makushita 10" was just shorthand for "probably not makushita-joi", so that he's not disappointed when he can't challenge for the juryo promotion in May already, i.e. with some luck he might go to Ms5 and a 6-1 might already be enough, but the more likely scenario is indeed Ms6 or Ms7 and from there it almost certainly takes another zensho. Kaisei yusho'ed from two ranks higher recently and ended up at Ms6w, for what that's worth.

[Jakusotsu 6,402]

Many oyakata have been on judging duty and therefore on the banzuke committee at some point in their careers, after all

Which only shows that I have even less insight than I accused them of lacking. (Blinking...)

[shumitto 419]

Kaisei yusho'ed from two ranks higher recently and ended up at Ms6w, for what that's worth.

Kaisei won 7 bouts indeed that basho losing the playoffs to eventual champion Gagamaru.

[Asashosakari 20,290]

Kaisei yusho'ed from two ranks higher recently and ended up at Ms6w, for what that's worth.

Kaisei won 7 bouts indeed that basho losing the playoffs to eventual champion Gagamaru.

D'oh, yes. Zensho, not yusho.

[Achiyama 1,272]

The rule of thumb for a 7-0 in makushita is "old rank divided by 10". They've been a little more conservative of late, but I'd be stunned if he lands outside the Ms4-Ms7 area.

You hit the nail on the head. I think he will be Ms6e for the Natsu basho. Why? Browsing sumo information, I came across something very interesting. The Great Takanohana, aka Takahanada (this was his starting shikona) for his Makushita debut in Natsu 1989 was ranked Ms48e (exactly what was Aoiyama's rank for Haru 2010). Same as Aoiyama, Takanohana zensho-yusho-ed. For Nagoya 1989 Takanohana was ranked Ms6e. So, if the rules hadn't changed we should expect Aoiyama to be at that rank.

Edited March 30, 2010 by Otokonoyama
added missing quote tag

[Achiyama 1,272]

I wanted to write about Aoiyama (the Bulgarian sumo wrestler Daniel Ivanov) after his first Yusho in Jonokuchi division during Aki basho 2009, but I decided to wait and see his development. And did he develop as a fast rising star?! I was impressed by his interview after his first Yusho, and his ambition to reach the sekitori status as soon as possible. And here he goes, he is tied at the top with Itai and Tosaytaka for most wins in their first 4 basho (excluding the Mae-zumo bouts).

Here is the list of the Top winners in their first 4 basho):

1= Aoiyama 27-1 96.4% (3 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi, Jonidan and Makushita debut)

1= Itai 27-1 96.4% (3 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi, Jonidan and Sandanme)

1= Tosayutaka 27-1 96.4% (3 Zensho Yusho - Jonidan, Sandanme and Makushita debut)

4= Tokitenku 26-2 92.9% (3 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi, Jonidan and Sandanme)

4= Asashoryu 26-2 92.9% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonidan and Sandanme, 1 Yusho-Doten - Makushita debut)

4= Kokkai 26-2 92.9% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonidan and Sandanme)

4= Konishiki 26-2 92.9% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi and Jonidan)

4= Yoshikaze 26-2 92.9% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi and Sandanme)

4= Musashimaru 26-2 92.9% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi and Sandanme)

4= Wakanohana 26-2 92.9% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi and Sandanme)

4= Sakaizawa 26-2 92.9% (1 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi, 1 Yusho-Doten - Jonidan)

12= Baruto 25-3 89.3% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi and Jonidan)

12= Motomatsu 25-3 89.3% (2 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi and Jonidan)

12= Kotooshu 25-3 89.3% (1 Zensho Yusho - Jonokuchi)

12= Yamamotoyama 25-3 89.3% (1 Zensho Yusho - Jonidan)

I am so proud of Aoiyama! Way to go man!

If he continues to wrestle so motivated, he could reach the Sekitori status in a fastest mode (5 basho, excluding the Mz basho).

You can read details from Aoiyama's cruising through the lower divisions in the topic "New Bulgarian rikishi in Tagonoura beya" started by Iwokayama in Ozumo Discussions.

Edited March 30, 2010 by Achiyama

[sekihiryu 51]

You can read details from Aoiyama's cruising through the lower divisions in the topic "New Bulgarian rikishi in Tagonoura beya" started by Iwokayama in Ozumo Discussions.

then why not contribute to that thread rather than starting a new one? perhaps the original thread title needs modifying to include his shikona?

[Kintamayama 47,359]

A scoop- Aoiyama and Kotooushuu!!:

[salle 11]

Maybe his oyakata just wants to surprise him with a higher rank than he expects? who knows?

And it is nice surprise! Makushita 5 for Natsu 2010. The door to Juryo is within reach now. Can he manage to open it?

[Kotoviki 16]

Maybe his oyakata just wants to surprise him with a higher rank than he expects? who knows?

And it is nice surprise! Makushita 5 for Natsu 2010. The door to Juryo is within reach now. Can he manage to open it?

Talked to him after his time at the Yokozuna Soken today and he was really happy about his ranking telling me it was higher than he thought.... Also told me he is really pushing himself to get another yusho (Holiday feeling...) which would put him into juryo!!!

After our talk he started his 50 minute bike ride back to his heya!!! WOW!!!

[Afrozuna 8]

Looks like he hit the wall alright 2-5

[Achiyama 1,272]

Looks like he hit the wall alright 2-5

Although everybody, including me, expected better performance by Aoiyama I don't think we have to cross him out for the future. Plus, I think there was an injury which partly contributed to his first MK after extraordinary performance in the previous 4 basho, winning 3 Yusho. See, what was written when he got his 4th loss:

********************************************************

Aoiyama (0-4, Makushita West 5) losing to Satsumahibiki by yorikiri

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Experiencing his first wall at high Makushita ranking and losing his fourth straight bout, suffering his first Makekoshi. 23 year old won three yusho since his Jonokuchi debut at the last Aki Basho but this basho unable to display his sumo partly due to a groin injury.)

"The power at upper Makushita level is quite a bit different compared to what I experienced before. I feel so much regret about suffering my first makekoshi but I will do my best the rest of this basho."

********************************************************

Have you excperienced a groin pain? It's so painful even when you walk. And he didn't mention it in his interview. I tip my hat to him that he didn't quit and got at least 2 wins. At 2-5 he could be still ranked at Ms15 for the Nagoya Basho.

But I have big hope for the next (Nagoya) basho. You'll ask WHY? Here are my reasons:

I compare Aoiyama's results with those of the great Yakozuna Takanohana:

1.) They both entered Makushita division at Ms48.

2.) They both got a Zensho Yusho (7-0) at their debut in Makushita.

3.) Next Banzuke Takanohana was Ms6, Aoiyama was Ms5.

4.) They both got makekoshi (MK) during the second basho in Makushita - Aoiyama 2-5, Takanohana - 3-4.

5.) Next banzuke Takanohana was Ms9, Aoiyama ??? (I expect, not to fall beoynd Ms15).

6.) Next basho Takanohana got a Zensho Yusho (7-0) and the next basho was in Juryo division. Why not Aoiyama do the same ???

I only pray Aoiyama to be healthy next basho and I expect great results.

Go Aoiyama! I am proud of you and I believe in you!

Achiyama (Angel Stoyanov - big fan of sumo)

Edited May 22, 2010 by Achiyama

[Randomitsuki 2,909]

I compare Aoiyama's results with those of the great Yakozuna Takanohana:

1.) They both entered Makushita division at Ms48.

2.) They both got a Zensho Yusho (7-0) at their debut in Makushita.

3.) Next Banzuke Takanohana was Ms6, Aoiyama was Ms5.

4.) They both got makekoshi (MK) during the second basho in Makushita - Aoiyama 2-5, Takanohana - 3-4.

5.) Next banzuke Takanohana was Ms9, Aoiyama ??? (I expect, not to fall beoynd Ms15).

6.) Next basho Takanohana got a Zensho Yusho (7-0) and the next basho was in Juryo division. Why not Aoiyama do the same ???

Now that's a bold comparison. I assume you know that Takanohana was a 16-year old kid when he was in upper Makushita?

[Asashosakari 20,290]

Now that's a bold comparison. I assume you know that Takanohana was a 16-year old kid when he was in upper Makushita?

More tactful than the post I wrote and cancelled. (In a state of confusion...) For a more obvious comparison - Kotooshu had been an ozeki for a year when he was at Aoiyama's current age. Groin injury or not, future greatness (probably) doesn't go 2-5 in high makushita at almost age 24.

Edited May 22, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Fay 1,677]

I wonder if there was any bout in the stream but if there was, you could have seen that he was hopelessly overextended in this region of makushita. Not a single one of his losses was at the edge.

[Kotoviki 16]

When Meike & I were with him the other night he only talked about the fact that in this basho he felt he lost his power every time at the tachi-ai. He couldn't explain why but he was ok with everything and still happy and smiling! He's now getting experience as a tsukebito for Tochiozan and he is really busy.

He has no regrets either and he promised a zensho for July.... I hope he keeps his promise!!

[Asashosakari 20,290]

I wonder if there was any bout in the stream but if there was, you could have seen that he was hopelessly overextended in this region of makushita. Not a single one of his losses was at the edge.

Yes, I saw (I think) three of the first four, and I agree. Maybe I'll clip them for this thread after the basho. I didn't see the one against Yanagawa, but in a way that loss is the most depressing one, as Yanagawa was really overranked even at Ms17. It's just one bout of course, but if that is indicative in any way of Aoiyama's current level, he's got a looong way to go to juryo. (Then again, Aoiyama did beat him last basho so who knows.)

I'm still pulling for the guy, of course, because by all accounts posted here on the forum he's a great kid, but for the moment you do have to wonder if he's less "the next Kotooshu" and more "just another typical 22-year-old shindeshi with limited upside".

[Achiyama 1,272]

I compare Aoiyama's results with those of the great Yakozuna Takanohana:

1.) They both entered Makushita division at Ms48.

2.) They both got a Zensho Yusho (7-0) at their debut in Makushita.

3.) Next Banzuke Takanohana was Ms6, Aoiyama was Ms5.

4.) They both got makekoshi (MK) during the second basho in Makushita - Aoiyama 2-5, Takanohana - 3-4.

5.) Next banzuke Takanohana was Ms9, Aoiyama ??? (I expect, not to fall beoynd Ms15).

6.) Next basho Takanohana got a Zensho Yusho (7-0) and the next basho was in Juryo division. Why not Aoiyama do the same ???

Now that's a bold comparison. I assume you know that Takanohana was a 16-year old kid when he was in upper Makushita?

What does age have to do with this case? The talent is a talent nevertheless the age. Many Japanese kids become sumo wrestlers at age 16, while it's not the same case for foreigners. One of the obstacles for foreigners is the limit of 1 (one) foreign born rikishi per heya.

Also, I don't think Takanohana's debut was so successful in the lower divisions. It took him 2 basho in Jonidan and 3 basho in Sandanme (without an Yusho) to get to Makushuta. While Aoiyama spent only 1 basho in Jonidan (with Zensho Yusho) and 1 basho in Sandanme (missed the Yusho by 1 loss).

What about Hakuho? 2 basho in Jonokuchi, 3 basho in Jonidan, 6 basho in Sandanme, 5 basho in Makushita, and without a single Yusho in the lower divisions, and turned into a hack of a Yokozuna.

Edited May 23, 2010 by Achiyama

[shoutenzan 0]

I wonder if it's a bad thing for him to spend a little longer in makushita. If he rises too quickly, he runs the risk of injury or being seriously outclassed and then floundering in the lower divisions like Raido

[Achiyama 1,272]

I wonder if it's a bad thing for him to spend a little longer in makushita. If he rises too quickly, he runs the risk of injury or being seriously outclassed and then floundering in the lower divisions like Raido

I don't think your example (Raido) is an accurate example. No comparison can be made between Raido and Aoiyama. Raido after Zensho Yusho in Jonokuchi spent 8 basho in Jonidan, 13 basho in Sandanme and 57 basho in Makushita. I don't think this is a right example for a talented rikishi.

[shoutenzan 0]

I wonder if it's a bad thing for him to spend a little longer in makushita. If he rises too quickly, he runs the risk of injury or being seriously outclassed and then floundering in the lower divisions like Raido

I don't think your example (Raido) is an accurate example. No comparison can be made between Raido and Aoiyama. Raido after Zensho Yusho in Jonokuchi spent 8 basho in Jonidan, 13 basho in Sandanme and 57 basho in Makushita. I don't think this is a right example for a talented rikishi.

You're right, of course, that they're not comparable. However, it seems that rikishi who enter sumo older tend to get to the higher divisions quickly, but then flounder. Raido wasn't a good example. Kokkai, on the other hand, took 15 basho to get to makuuchi, but apparently has a neck injury, and has been on the maegashira elevator for the past 2 years since reaching his highest rank at komusubi. I don't think anyone one want to see Aoiyama struggle to get to the upper divisions only to get injured. Better to develop good technique in the lower division even if it takes a little longer to get to the top. Chiyonofuji didn't have the most stellar career in the lower divisions: only one makushita yusho. He even returned to makushita briefly after having made it as high as maegashira 12. Of course, it's their careers in the upper divisions that count, in the end.

[Doitsuyama 1,263]

What does age have to do with this case? The talent is a talent nevertheless the age. Many Japanese kids become sumo wrestlers at age 16, while it's not the same case for foreigners. One of the obstacles for foreigners is the limit of 1 (one) foreign born rikishi per heya.

Well, a quick rise to juryo is optional for a future yokozuna at age 16 as at this age physical development isn't finished (just look at the body changes of Takanohana or Hakuho, just impossible for Aoiyama). But it's an absolute must for a 23 years old. Show me a few rikishi who did exceptionally well after entering Ozumo at 22 years and not going to juryo fast.

[Asashosakari 20,290]

What does age have to do with this case? The talent is a talent nevertheless the age. Many Japanese kids become sumo wrestlers at age 16, while it's not the same case for foreigners. One of the obstacles for foreigners is the limit of 1 (one) foreign born rikishi per heya.

Also, I don't think Takanohana's debut was so successful in the lower divisions. It took him 2 basho in Jonidan and 3 basho in Sandanme (without an Yusho) to get to Makushuta. While Aoiyama spent only 1 basho in Jonidan (with Zensho Yusho) and 1 basho in Sandanme (missed the Yusho by 1 loss).

I'm sorry, but if you really don't understand why it makes a huge difference whether a particular set of results is achieved by a 23-year-old or by a 16-year-old, then you have much to learn. At first I thought you're just overly optimistic about your countryman, but with "I don't think Takanohana's debut was so successful in the lower divisions" you're starting to enter WTF? territory now.

Proper comparisons for Aoiyama start with the flood of (mostly mediocre) 22-year-old collegiate rikishi who have joined in the last 10 years, not a dai-yokozuna.

Edited May 23, 2010 by Asashosakari