Takamisakari kyujo/demotion debate

[Itchygao 0]

Day 5 Late Update

West Maegashira 8 TAKAMISAKARI (3-1) has withdrawn. East Maegashira 10 HOKUTORIKI will pick up his 2nd win.

OMG! WHat has happened to "The Strange One"? I hope it is not career threatening.

[Fukurou 534]

Day 5 Late Update

West Maegashira 8 TAKAMISAKARI (3-1) has withdrawn. East Maegashira 10 HOKUTORIKI will pick up his 2nd win.

OMG! WHat has happened to "The Strange One"? I hope it is not career threatening.

I have no idea - I was just reading his comments over in the Quotes from Day 4 thread, and there was no indication of a problem. I guess we're going to have to wait for a more "on the scene" report.

[James H 0]

Day 5 Late Update

West Maegashira 8 TAKAMISAKARI (3-1) has withdrawn. East Maegashira 10 HOKUTORIKI will pick up his 2nd win.

OMG! WHat has happened to "The Strange One"? I hope it is not career threatening.

From what I can tell from the Japanese (and I am sure Kinta, Joe or Mado will come in to clean up afterward) he has broken / chipped a tarsus and also torn some ligaments in his right ankle. Hospital says 6 weeks, Azumazeki says let's see how the ankle is after the swelling goes down and he might be back before the end of the basho.

[ryafuji 824]

(Brain whurs) Will 3 wins at M8 be enough to keep him in the division? Could he get away with a M16 next time?

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

(Brain whurs) Will 3 wins at M8 be enough to keep him in the division? Could he get away with a M16 next time?

I'd say he's teetering right on the edge. Depends on the rest of the picture.

Edited November 15, 2007 by Jakusotsu

[kaiguma 0]

(Brain whurs) Will 3 wins at M8 be enough to keep him in the division? Could he get away with a M16 next time?

He's in. I'd say 99% sure*. He may even slide into a safer spot at M15.

Btw, check out the video and you can see how badly he's limping after the immense utchari thrown by Yoshikaze. He's tryingto hide it, but obviously in quite a bit of pain.

Even so, with chipped bones and torn ligaments... it's a testament to his fortitude that he was able to climb up onto the dohyo without any help.

*EDIT: based on the wins minus losses formula he's solidly at 16, and banzuke makers have lately been fairly lenient, making that more like (w - l + 1) or even (w - l + 2) for anyone who shouldn't clearly be demoted. Jaku's correct to mention the rest of the picture, which would account for my anomalous 1%. :-P

Edited November 15, 2007 by kaiguma

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

And don't forget the Takamisakari factor! The NSK certainly won't want their crowd favourite in Juryo unless absolutely necessary.

[Asashosakari 20,246]

And don't forget the Takamisakari factor! The NSK certainly won't want their crowd favourite in Juryo unless absolutely necessary.

Possible, but the banzuke committee has certainly demonstrated in the past that they're quite willing to dump big names into the J1 rank even if a different solution would be possible, too. (As a semi-appropriate example, there's Iwakiyama/Kasuganishiki this basho.)

Anyway, looking at my basho predictions I had the list of strong demotion candidates as "Kasuganishiki and not much else" and at least so far that looks roughly on target...I'd certainly say there's a bigger than 1% chance that Sakari's spot will be needed. He's lucky that the juryo guys are already getting a free shot due to Tokitsuumi's blank.

[Oimeru 0]

And don't forget the Takamisakari factor! The NSK certainly won't want their crowd favourite in Juryo unless absolutely necessary.

Possible, but the banzuke committee has certainly demonstrated in the past that they're quite willing to dump big names into the J1 rank even if a different solution would be possible, too. (As a semi-appropriate example, there's Iwakiyama/Kasuganishiki this basho.)

Anyway, looking at my basho predictions I had the list of strong demotion candidates as "Kasuganishiki and not much else" and at least so far that looks roughly on target...I'd certainly say there's a bigger than 1% chance that Sakari's spot will be needed. He's lucky that the juryo guys are already getting a free shot due to Tokitsuumi's blank.

Of course Kaio opening up another spot is also a real possibility. That would then be two free shots.

[kaiguma 0]

I'd certainly say there's a bigger than 1% chance that Sakari's spot will be needed. He's lucky that the juryo guys are already getting a free shot due to Tokitsuumi's blank.

Of course I'm just being silly here, so don't take me too seriously... :-P

Seems the probability could be close to 1 : 100

How often do we have enough juryo promotion candidates (by their own rights) to outnumber Makuuchi demotion candidates (by the same measure)?

Maybe not 100 : 1, but clearly it is muuuuuch more likely that demotion candidates outnumber promotion candidates. We generally see at least one promotion beyond it's merit and/or at least one would-be demotion saved by banzuke luck.

Have the opposite happen more than once in the past 16 years? Or just once in the past 8 years? That's what it takes to make it to 2%...

[Asashosakari 20,246]

How often do we have enough juryo promotion candidates (by their own rights) to outnumber Makuuchi demotion candidates (by the same measure)?

Maybe not 100 : 1, but clearly it is muuuuuch more likely that demotion candidates outnumber promotion candidates. We generally see at least one promotion beyond it's merit and/or at least one would-be demotion saved by banzuke luck.

That's probably correct, but the implicit assumption you're making is that Takamisakari will be the best-ranked demotion candidate, and that's far from certain. If Yoshikaze goes 4-11, or Hakurozan 5-10, that calculus changes mighty quickly.

Edit: I wonder if the blank means that Sakari only has 7.5 ranks below himself instead of 8, or if they're going to treat it like an actual existing slot for the rank comparisons...

Edited November 15, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Oimeru 0]

Edit: I wonder if the blank means that Sakari only has 7.5 ranks below himself instead of 8, or if they're going to treat it like an actual existing slot for the rank comparisons...

Interesting question. If Tokitsuumi hadn't turned into Tokitsukaze-oyakata, he'd still be on the banzuke like any other late retiree. It would seem strange to me if they handled this differently than they normally do. I'll put my money on treating it like an existing slot. It's occupied by the ghost of Tokitsuumi :-D

Somehow this is steering slightly off-topic, though...

Edited November 15, 2007 by Oimeru

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

*EDIT: based on the wins minus losses formula he's solidly at 16,

Not that I don't agree with your big picture, but I'd like to point out that "16" or "17" is a pretty decisive difference here, and 8 -3 + 12 just happens to be a rock solid 17.

[kaiguma 0]

*EDIT: based on the wins minus losses formula he's solidly at 16,

Not that I don't agree with your big picture, but I'd like to point out that "16" or "17" is a pretty decisive difference here, and 8 -3 + 12 just happens to be a rock solid 17.

That explains how I've ended up on the wrong side of this discussion ;-)

Should have double-checked the banzuke - in my mind he was currently ranked 7!

Still, I feel he will be protected far more easily than any obvious demotion from m12-m16, and thus will only be demoted if mathematical promotions (in their own right) equal or outnumber mathematical demotions.

So now I'd say: 95% chance he avoids demotion, rather than my initial judgment of 99% (Sign of disapproval...)

[Asashosakari 20,246]

Interesting question. If Tokitsuumi hadn't turned into Tokitsukaze-oyakata, he'd still be on the banzuke like any other late retiree. It would seem strange to me if they handled this differently than they normally do. I'll put my money on treating it like an existing slot. It's occupied by the ghost of Tokitsuumi (Holiday feeling...)

On the other hand, how often does a current maegashira/juryo retire between tournaments (giving us a "ghost 0-0-15")? Most of the time it's somebody who has already fallen to Makushita. Sumo Reference only has 11 cases in the last 35 years, the most recent being Kotoryu's retirement - and at least there, the evidence looks inconclusive to me. Check out Takanotsuru and Kinkaiyama...6.5 ranks (when counting the ghost), 3 wins, and the "wrong" banzuke decision according to conventional wisdom. If it's only 6 ranks, it would be correct. (On the other hand, there's Asofuji vs. Kobo on the same banzuke where they did it the other way around...) Anyway, I don't think we know how such a case is treated by the banzuke makers. Then again, it probably won't matter anyway. :-)