Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Sumo Spiffy 646]

23 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm rooting for the scenario that would expose inappropriate banzuke-making the most, namely M1 yusho -> K yusho -> ???.

Would that do it more than M1 yusho -> K 9/10 wins -> K yusho?

[Asashosakari 20,134]

56 minutes ago, Reonito said:

If they did Atamifuji-Kotoshoho, I don't know whom Aonishiki could fight.

Hakuoho and Hiradoumi could be options if they're 7-7, I'd say. Reasonably high-ranked, good motivation. If that's not possible, yeah, hard to see who would make sense besides the other frontrunners.

[Asashosakari 20,134]

58 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Would that do it more than M1 yusho -> K 9/10 wins -> K yusho?

I'd argue yes, because back-to-back yusho would create an even more pressurized "how can you not make this guy ozeki now" scenario.

[Reonito 1,748]

Juryo yusho race: the winner of Mita vs. Daiseizan will have 11 wins, the loser will have 10, as will the winner of Shonannoumi vs. Kotokuzan. Daiseizan beat Shonannoumi already, and can't face Kotokuzan, so the schedulers will have to be creative with him. Mita beat Kotokuzan but hasn't faced Shonannoumi, so that's the only available pairing among those in the running.

[Reonito 1,748]

5 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'd argue yes, because back-to-back yusho would create an even more pressurized "how can you not make this guy ozeki now" scenario.

That's always been the unanswered question, hasn't it? No consecutive yusho below ozeki ever IIRC.

[Fashiritētā 209]

8 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

I'd argue yes, because back-to-back yusho would create an even more pressurized "how can you not make this guy ozeki now" scenario.

Almost akin to the Konishiki situation, dont wanna say “if Aonishiki was Japanese, he would have been promoted to Komosubi” but there it is.

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

Just now, Reonito said:

That's always been the unanswered question, hasn't it? No consecutive yusho below ozeki ever IIRC.

Without becoming an Ozeki after the first one or the second one, to be precise?

[Reonito 1,748]

4 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Without becoming an Ozeki after the first one or the second one, to be precise?

Just the first one—no one's done it twice in a row to become O. For maximum clarity, no one has ever won two yusho in a row while ranked M, K, or S in bosh basho.

Edited July 25 by Reonito

[Reonito 1,748]

35 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Just the first one—no one's done it twice in a row to become O. For maximum clarity, no one has ever won two yusho in a row while ranked M, K, or S in bosh basho.

It's a very short list of guys who've won two yusho while ranked below O in their entire career.

[Sumo Spiffy 646]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

I'd argue yes, because back-to-back yusho would create an even more pressurized "how can you not make this guy ozeki now" scenario.

Oh... you're saying it would be goofy for them to not promote him to ozeki after back-to-back yushos? I figure, even if they make him a sekiwake, I'm not convinced they would do it because it's not three bashos in the joi. It would be dumb as hell not to make an exception for him, but...

[Reonito 1,748]

13 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Oh... you're saying it would be goofy for them to not promote him to ozeki after back-to-back yushos? I figure, even if they make him a sekiwake, I'm not convinced they would do it because it's not three bashos in the joi. It would be dumb as hell not to make an exception for him, but...

We know it has to be two yusho in a row at ozeki to make yokozuna; as noted above, two yusho in a row, both below ozeki, hasn't been tested.

[Sumo Spiffy 646]

56 minutes ago, Reonito said:

We know it has to be two yusho in a row at ozeki to make yokozuna; as noted above, two yusho in a row, both below ozeki, hasn't been tested.

Yeah, but if he goes to komusubi and wins again in September, I don't think that necessarily makes for a good test. As wild as that would be, to have only two bashos above M9 and win both, they would use that plus the fact he's not a sekiwake as reason to say "nice job, ten wins in November should be easy now".

[Reonito 1,748]

3 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah, but if he goes to komusubi and wins again in September, I don't think that necessarily makes for a good test. As wild as that would be, to have only two bashos above M9 and win both, they would use that plus the fact he's not a sekiwake as reason to say "nice job, ten wins in November should be easy now".

Sure, something like S 7-8 -> K Y -> S Y would be a more definitive test. It's actually not easy to come up with a sanyaku YY scenario that doesn't fulfill the usual 33/3 in the upper ranks criterion. I suppose something like M7 big score -> K Y -> S Y would be another path, the opportunity for which we were denied by their refusal to promote Ao despite every precedent.

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

10 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Yeah, but if he goes to komusubi and wins again in September, I don't think that necessarily makes for a good test. As wild as that would be, to have only two bashos above M9 and win both, they would use that plus the fact he's not a sekiwake as reason to say "nice job, ten wins in November should be easy now".

I would forget about Ozeki promotion after Aki, that ship has sailed without even dropping anchor. 

I am still more concerned about Aonishiki not getting to Sekiwaki for Kyushu if he gets less than 11 wins as a Komusubi in Aki; it would make any result in Kyushu irrelevant - "he wasn't a Sekiwake". 

[Sakura 1,520]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

It's a very short list of guys who've won two yusho while ranked below O in their entire career.

6 of whom became Yokozuna and another 2 made Ozeki.

[Reonito 1,748]

23 minutes ago, Sakura said:

6 of whom became Yokozuna and another 2 made Ozeki.

Yup, only Kotonishiki and Tamawashi didn't.

[Reonito 1,748]

57 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

I would forget about Ozeki promotion after Aki, that ship has sailed without even dropping anchor. 

I am still more concerned about Aonishiki not getting to Sekiwaki for Kyushu if he gets less than 11 wins as a Komusubi in Aki; it would make any result in Kyushu irrelevant - "he wasn't a Sekiwake". 

This also hasn't been tested.

[Jakusotsu 6,321]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

1 hour ago, Sakura said:

6 of whom became Yokozuna and another 2 made Ozeki.

Yup, only Kotonishiki didn't and Tamawashi didn't hasn't yet.

fixed

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 14:

Already achieved: Shonannoumi,

1 win: Nishikigi, Ryuden, Tomokaze, Oshoumi, Daiseizan

2 wins: Hitoshi, Kagayaki, Mita

"But Tigerboy, you innumerate buffoon!", I hear you cry, "how can you include rikishi who need two wins with only one day left?" Because, dear reader, there are six vacancies in  maku'uchi so juryo wrestlers who miss their target by one could still be in contention. Two wrestlers who cannot benefit from this situation are Nishikigi and Ryuden: they need a win on day 15 to get KK and be eligible for promotion.

Another way of showing this would be:

Already achieved: Shonannoumi

Needs a win OR some luck: Tomokaze, Oshoumi, Daiseizan

Needs a win: Nishikigi, Ryuden

Needs a win AND some luck: Hitoshi, Kagayaki, Mita

Oh, and if this isn't tricky enough, strong finishes by Chiyoshoma or Shishi in maku'uchi could give them a squeak at survival ahead of a juryo "near miss".

Edited July 26 by Tigerboy1966
spelling

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 14:

Not applicable!

We have six demotable records and everyone else is safe. However, there is only one stone cold certain juryo promotion case, so some of these men do have a chance of survival. I am putting them in order of the mythical ranks they would end up at if they get no more wins:

M20w: Shishi

M22e: Kotoeiho

M22w: Chiyoshoma, Endo

M25e: Kayo

M28w: Hidenoumi

[hypnoowl 23]

All this ozeki talk reminds me of the last year's Hiradoumi debacle. Though in case of Aonishiki it is definitely a lot more justified, he can't keep grabbing legs, and his low stance shenanigans are obviously hard on his back judging by the cupping marks. Sounds like a broken record at this point, but it may be wise to wait another basho before declaring him ozeki.

Edited July 26 by hypnoowl

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

4 minutes ago, hypnoowl said:

All this ozeki talk reminds me of the last year's Hiradoumi debacle. Though in case of Aonishiki it is definitely a lot more justified, he can't keep grabbing legs, and his low stance shenanigans are obviously hard on his back judging by the cupping marks. Sounds like a broken record at this point, but it may be wise to wait another basho before declaring him ozeki.

He lost 3 bouts!

He is done, call the undertaker.

 

[hypnoowl 23]

17 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

He lost 3 bouts!

He is done, call the undertaker.

 

Not at all what I meant. It's just that his stance is doing his back no favors in the long run and people are already getting wise to the leg grab. I just wonder if  he's going to be that good without the low stance.

Injuries are the bane of sumo and here is a potential self-inflicted one.

Edited July 26 by hypnoowl

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

11 minutes ago, hypnoowl said:

I just wonder if  he's going to be that good without the low stance.

Would Takakeisho be any good without his tachiai?

Would Hoshoryu be any good without his judo throws?

Would Tochinoshin be any good without his lifting power?

Etc.

[hypnoowl 23]

Tochinoshin destroyed his knees with unnecessary tsuridashi. And regarding Hoshoryu, his most embarassing losses come from ill-advised throw attempts. So yes, perhaps he would be better off without trying to force as many of those.

Edited July 26 by hypnoowl