Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Bunbukuchagama 922]

13 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I hadn't even thought of Takayasu forcing a third sekiwake slot, but it would be a great story.

Another great story would be Aonishiki missing on an Ozeki promotion because he was robbed of a Komusubi slot. If he were to get it, he would be promoted to Sekiwake with 11 wins. As is, he will be a Komusube in Aki. No, I don't think his non-joi basho will count for an Ozeki run, but imagine him getting 9 or 10 wins in Aki. This wll now have him stuck at Komusubi and thus prevent him from becoming Ozeki with a strong performance in Kyushu.

This is the butterfly effect of a single unfair decision. 

Edited July 25 by Bunbukuchagama

[Fashiritētā 209]

Wouldn’t 11 wins at M1E get him a Sekiwake slot?

Just did a query, with 11 wins , its 50/50 , but 12 would get him there.

Edited July 24 by Fashiritētā

[Reonito 1,747]

23 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

Wouldn’t 11 wins at M1E get him a Sekiwake slot?

Just did a query, with 11 wins , its 50/50 , but 12 would get him there.

There's no open slot, so the query is not relevant. The only time this century that someone went M->S2 was Takayasu on that weird Hatsu 2023 banzuke. And then we had this:

2021.01	M1w		13-2 Y	Yusho (1st) Gino-sho (1st) Shukun-sho (3rd)
2021.03	K2w		8-7

[Reonito 1,747]

To be fair, we all thought Daieisho would get an extra sekiwake slot, but he didn't...

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

To be fair, we all thought Daieisho would get an extra sekiwake slot, but he didn't...

Daieisho's 13-2 yusho from M1w in Hatsu '21 got him a promotion to K2w. That was a move that literally no-one playing GTB got correct.

https://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=202103

Edited July 24 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Millwood 41]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Another great story would be Aonishiki missing on an Ozeki promotion because he was robbed of a Komusubi slot. If he were toget it, he would be promoted to Sekiwake with 11 wins. As is, he will be a Komusube in Aki. No, I don't think his non-joi basho will count for an Ozeki run, but imagine him getting 9 or 10 wins in Aki. This wll now have him stuck at Komusubi and thus prevent him from becoming Ozeki with a strong performance in Kyushu.

This is the butterfly effect of a single unfair decision. 

I had already guessed that the lack of promotion was exactly designed to slow down an Ozeki run.

[Reonito 1,747]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Another great story would be Aonishiki missing on an Ozeki promotion because he was robbed of a Komusubi slot. If he were toget it, he would be promoted to Sekiwake with 11 wins. As is, he will be a Komusube in Aki. No, I don't think his non-joi basho will count for an Ozeki run, but imagine him getting 9 or 10 wins in Aki. This wll now have him stuck at Komusubi and thus prevent him from becoming Ozeki with a strong performance in Kyushu.

This is the butterfly effect of a single unfair decision. 

It's actually an interesting scenario. If, for the sake of argument, someone gets 22-23 wins over two basho at joi-M/K or KK, but with 9-10 wins in the second basho, and there's no open S slot, what do they do? Promote to S anyway to enable an Ozeki run? Or leave at K, and either not promote after (say) 13-10-12, or promote from K? As far as I can tell, they've never faced this exact choice...I'd guess they would say the run isn't complete, and ask for 10+ at S in the next basho, but I'm not 100% on this.

[Asashosakari 20,131]

I'm rooting for the scenario that would expose inappropriate banzuke-making the most, namely M1 yusho -> K yusho -> ???.

[Fashiritētā 209]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

There's no open slot, so the query is not relevant. The only time this century that someone went M->S2 was Takayasu on that weird Hatsu 2023 banzuke. And then we had this:

2021.01	M1w		13-2 Y	Yusho (1st) Gino-sho (1st) Shukun-sho (3rd)
2021.03	K2w		8-7

To be fair, the S and K above him had winning records and none of the Ozeki were kadoban for the January tourney, though Keisho was the next tournament.

[Reonito 1,747]

35 minutes ago, Fashiritētā said:

To be fair, the S and K above him had winning records and none of the Ozeki were kadoban for the January tourney, though Keisho was the next tournament.

So we're probably in the same boat here: Kiri and WTK are KK (as is Takayasu) and Koto won't be kadoban unless he loses his last 3. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 13:

Already achieved: Shonannoumi,

1 win: Nishikigi, Ryuden, Tomokaze, Daiseizan

2 wins: Oshoumi

Note that there may be some wiggle room here as there are going to be at least six maku'uchi with demotable records, but not for Nishikigi and Ryuden who MUST get one more win to get KK and be eligible for promotion.

Edited July 25 by Tigerboy1966
addition

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 13:

Not applicable!

We have six demotable records and everyone else is safe. I am putting them in order of the mythical ranks they would end up at if they get no more wins:

M22w: Chiyoshoma, Shishi, Endo

M24e: Kotoeiho

M27e: Kayo

M28w: Hidenoumi

[Reonito 1,747]

1 minute ago, Ack! said:

Huh?

Daieisho famously wasn't promoted to sekiwake after his 13-2 yusho from M1. The approach to extra sanyaku slots was far more lenient for the pre-2000 basho in your query, and the 2023 banzuke had a lot of extra slots to resolve a huge logjam in the joi.

[Ack! 494]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Daieisho famously wasn't promoted to sekiwake after his 13-2 yusho from M1. The approach to extra sanyaku slots was far more lenient for the pre-2000 basho in your query, and the 2023 banzuke had a lot of extra slots to resolve a huge logjam in the joi.

I'm old. I forgot what century we are in. 

[Asashosakari 20,131]

Day 13

               Rank  W-L    max   min    maxQ  minQ
Mitoryu        J10e  0-5-8  Ms9e  Ms11e   2nd   2nd   
Nabatame       J10w  kyujo  Ms11w Ms11w   1st   1st
Shiden      L  J11e  5-8          Ms2e          4th
Shimanoumi  L  J12e  3-10   Ms3e  Ms7e    5th   3rd
Otsuji      W  J12w  4-9    Ms1w  Ms5w    6th   3rd
Daiamami    W  J13w  5-8          Ms4w          3rd
Miyanokaze  W  J14w  7-6          Ms1w          5th

Kyokukaiyu     Ms1e  4-2    J12e  J14e    2nd   4th
Asanoyama      Ms1w  4-2    J12w  J14w    2nd   4th*
Ishizaki       Ms2e  5-1    J11e  J13e    2nd   4th
Asahakuryu  W  Ms3e  7-0    J10e  J10e    1st   1st
Kitanowaka     Ms3w  4-2    J14w  Ms2w    5th*  6th
Nishinoryu     Ms5e  4-2    Ms2e  Ms4e    5th   6th
Takakento      Ms5w  3-3    Ms4w          7th

* As before, Kitanowaka 5-2 assumed behind Asanoyama 4-3

Shiden makekoshi already on Day 13 off of a 3-0 start, rough. Meanwhile, Shimanoumi really ought to be toast now - he can't finish better than 5th in line for demotion, with a virtual destination of Ms3e, and the 5th-best promotion contender already calculates to at least Ms2w. Otsuji won today, but it might be too little, too late - Miyanokaze is numerically ahead of him now (albeit only on tie-break, iffy as that is), so that's one more lifeline gone. Shiden just needs to win one more bout, and Daiamami will finish ahead of Otsuji if he can at least score the same results across Days 14 and 15. (Although that could be too little for him, too.)

Asahakuryu has for all intents and purposes secured the top spot in the promotion queue by winning the makushita yusho today. No other makushita action took place, but we'll be getting plenty tomorrow:

6 hours ago, I am the Yokozuna said:

Any idea what nictitates parings in juryo for all three of Ishizaki, Asanoyama and Kyokukaiyuu? One or two of, I could understand, but all of three of them?

With Nishikifuji coming back tomorrow (= odd total of active sekitori), the four makushita rikishi who are being held back for juryo appearances had to be split either Day 14 one / Day 15 three, or the other way around. I'd argue that they've made the correct choice by going big for Day 14, because there's no guarantee that there will still be three sensible opponents available in juryo on Day 15.

So, we're getting J11e Shiden - Ms1e Kyokukaiyu, J13w Daiamami - Ms1w Asanoyama, and J14w Miyanokaze - Ms2e Ishizaki tomorrow; both "sides" matched up in ranking order, as they usually do. Shiden and Miyanokaze can save themselves outright, while Daiamami would become nominally demotable with a loss. (And would in fact immediately become unable to finish better than 5th in line, which might already assure his demotion.) None of the makushita guys really need the win themselves, but it is what it is. I think they'll still be properly motivated, if only because that's the default mindset in high makushita and recent decisions like last basho's Miyanokaze over Kyokukaiyu have probably put the fear of god into everybody anyway.

As mentioned yesterday, Nishinoryu and Takakento will also be in action against makushita opponents, and at least for Nishinoryu his result could well end up having promotion implications. How that goes exactly is largely out of his hands even with a win, however.

They should have free choice for Kitanowaka's Day 15 opponent among whoever is still on the bubble then; the only juryo rikishi that he already fought is Shimanoumi.

Edited July 25 by Asashosakari

[Reonito 1,747]

Makushita promotion queue: 3e Asahakuryu (7-0), 2e Ishizaki (5-1), 1e Kyokukaiyu (4-2), 1w Asanoyama (4-2), 3w Kitanowaka (4-2), 5e Nishinoryu (4-2).

Juryo demotion queue: 10w Nabatame (0-0-12), 10e Mitoryu (0-5-7), 12e Shimanoumi (3-10), 12w Otsuji (4-9),  13w Daiamami (5-8), J11e Shiden (5-8), 14w Miyanokaze (7-6).

I finally got to bold someone who's competing! Asahakuryu's sekitori debut is 100% confirmed after his yusho-securing win over Yago. Let's hope he fairs better than last basho's yusho winner from the exact same rank, Otsuji. Shimanoumi now heads the demotion queue and must win out and hope for two stronger demotion candidates (who'd have to be Daiamami and Otsuji) and a lot of luck.

Tomorrow, we get Ishizaki-Miyanokaze, Asanoyama-Daiamami, and Kyokukaiyu-Shiden. Otsuji fights Fujiseiun and Shimanoumi has Hitoshi—does this mean the schedulers think they can't avoid demotion? In that case, what might look like exchange bouts are really about creating additional slots. Kitanowaka is being held in reserve for day 15, while Nishonoryu fights Toseiryu; he'll need a win, a loss by Kitanowaka, and 5 demotions to even have a chance.

(Posted right before I saw @Asashosakari's analysis immediately above.)

Edited July 25 by Reonito

[Asashosakari 20,131]

13 minutes ago, Reonito said:

(Posted right before I saw @Asashosakari's analysis immediately above.)

Somebody has to add the common sense view that Shimanoumi is not in fact toast yet no matter what the numbers say.  Appreciate your take as always, we're arguably so different in presentation style that there's something to enjoy for everyone reading this.

Edited July 25 by Asashosakari

[Millwood 41]

Forgive my ignorance - what do the W or L next to some names signify?

[Jakusotsu 6,320]

15 minutes ago, Millwood said:

Forgive my ignorance - what do the W or L next to some names signify?

Win/Loss on day 13, it seems.

[Reonito 1,747]

57 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Somebody has to add the common sense view that Shimanoumi is not in fact toast yet no matter what the numbers say.  Appreciate your take as always, we're arguably so different in presentation style that there's something to enjoy for everyone reading this.

Out of reacts, but the feeling is mutual. And yes, I won't believe it until I see it 

[Reonito 1,747]

Makuuchi demotion queue: Hidenoumi, Kayo, Endo, Kotoeiho, Shishi, Chiyoshoma. As @Tigerboy1966 notes above, everyone is already demotable, though the last three could potentially save themselves by winning out, depending on the promotion cases, which are currently scarce.

Juryo promotion queue: Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Daiseizan, Nishikigi, Ryuden, Oshoumi. Only Shonannoumi has done enough. The next four guys need a win apiece, while Oshoumi needs two. Nishikigi, Ryuden, and Oshoumi have yet to reach 8 wins, so if they fail to do so and there are more than 3 stone-cold demotions, several other guys who can't reach their numerical promotion targets could yet come into play.

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

12 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Nishikigi, Ryuden, and Oshoumi have yet to reach 8 wins, so if they fail to do so and there are more than 3 stone-cold demotions, several other guys who can't reach their numerical promotion targets could yet come into play.

I hadn't thought of this. Hitoshi, Tochitaikai, Mita & Kagayaki would be only one short of their targets if they win out. I will add this to my snapshot view tomorrow morning (UK time).

Edited July 25 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Reonito 1,747]

9 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I hadn't thought of this. Hitoshi, Tochitaikai, Mita & Kagayaki would be only one short of their targets if they win out. I will add this to my snapshot view tomorrow morning (UK time).

Yup, those are the four, the pecking order should be Hitoshi/Tochitaikai, Kagayaki, Mita.

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

On 24/07/2025 at 18:32, Tigerboy1966 said:

On 24/07/2025 at 17:32, Asashosakari said:

For completeness, the potential playoff participants in jonokuchi would be:

Kyoda (Jk3e 5-1)
Kakusho (Jk13e 5-1)
Naniwamusashi (Jk16w 5-1)
Yabugasaki (Jk20w 5-1)

I had Kyoda and Yabugasaki down as the two favourites at the start of the basho.

Kyoda has beaten all of his jonokuchi opponents and it would not be unfair if he got a second bite at the cherry.

Well that worked out well: Kyoda, Yabugasaki and Kaki in a tomoe-sen. My money would be on Kyoda if such a thing were legal.

[Reonito 1,747]

Given the title of this thread, should we discuss the sekitori yusho races? 

In Makuuchi, we have 3 relevant day 14 bouts, assuming the schedulers don't do anything really bone-headed on day 15 which could keep some of the current 9-win guys in contention:

• Aonishiki (11-2) vs. Kusano (10-3)
• Atamifuji (10-3) vs. Takayasu (8-5)
• Kotoshoho (11-2) vs. Kirishima (8-5)

If Aonishiki and Kotoshoho both win, I don't see any way they wouldn't get matched up, eliminating everyone else and giving as a straight yusho decider. If Aonishiki wins to go 12-2 and Kotoshoho loses, Kusano is out, and we'd have Kotoshoho and possibly Atamifuji at 11-2. Presumably the schedulers would give one of them the chance to force a playoff against Aonishiki, which the other could join. A loss by Aonishiki and a win by Kotoshoho to go 12-2 would leave us with 2 or 3 chasers at 11-3, and the only reasonable option would seem to be to give Aonishiki a shot at the leader. If both lose, we'll have either 3 or 4 guys at 11-3, and I am not sure what the schedulers would do. Obviously, Atamifuji and Kusano can't meet, and Kotoshoho beat Kusano on day 3. So the possible pairings are Aonishiki-Kotoshoho or Aonishiki-Atamifuji, with the other(s) presumably getting sanyaku opponents. If they did Atamifuji-Kotoshoho, I don't know whom Aonishiki could fight.