Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Talk, Nagoya 2022

[Chartorenji 243]

As soon as Day 11 finishes this should be posted. This one is a bit nutty with the Covid stuff 

 

(o) Takakeisho   O1 Mitakeumi (o*2)  

                  O2 (2) Shodai 

(1) Wakatakakage S Daieisho (2)               

(2) Hoshoryu K Abi (3)               

-

(x) Kiribayama M1                           

(x*1) Kotonowaka M2 Ichinojo (~)           

              M3 Ura (x) 

(x) Wakamotoharu M4                                  

-

                            M6 Tobizaru (4) 

 

Makuuchi-Juryo

(3) Shimanoumi M9                          

-

                                 M14 Tsurugisho (1) 

-

(1-2) Yutakayama M16 Daiamami (x)  

                                M17 Chiyomaru (x) 

-----------------------

                (o) Ryuden J1 Hidenoumi (3)       

-

 (3) Kagayaki J3                      

                           J4 Mitoryu (2-3) 

(4) Chiyonokuni J5                             

                          J6 Bushozan (4) 

-

 (4) Hiradoumi J8                           

 

Juryo-Makushita

                 J10 Ishiura (x) 

    (3-4) Kaisei J11 Tochimaru (3-4) 

           J12 Yago (2) 

-

(1) Gonoyama J14 Chiyosakae (1)     

---------------------------------------

(1) Takakento Ms1 Kinbozan (o)     

(~) Roga Ms2 Kanno (~)  

(1) Tomokaze Ms3 Daishomaru (1) 

 

*1: Due to Covid 

*2 Due to Covid, but is an Ozeki during a tournament. Probably will be still Kadoban next time around, but it's up in the air as far as I know. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Chartorenji

[Seiyashi 4,109]

I hope the forum luminaries won't mind me pitching in to help out with the arasoi writeups.

Day 11 Makuuchi arasoi:
9-2: Y1e Terunofuji, M2w Ichinojō
8-3: Ō1e Takakeishō, M6w Tobizaru, M8w Nishikigi, M17e Nishikifuji
7-4: Ō2w Shōdai, M2e Kotonowaka, M11w Midorifuji, M14e Myōgiryū, M15w Ōhō

Tobizaru and Nishikigi were cut down to size by Takakeishō and Myōgiryū today, falling one behind co-leaders Terunofuji and Ichinojō. Mathematically, the entire 4-loss pack is still in it, although it's guaranteed to lose Kotonowaka after Sadogatake's COVID kyūjō was announced today, and it's kind of unlikely for all three of the hiramaku to stay in it. It's worth noting that because there's three Isegahama rikishi in the arasoi, the options for culling them out are more restrictive than normal.

Of the 4-loss pack, Midorifuji and Myōgiryū have already fought each other, so Ōhō is probably on the cards for one or both of them. Ichinojō will probably be the one pulling gatekeeping duty for the 3-loss pack ahead of a possible sanyaku reascension next basho. Indeed, Tobizaru is up against Ichinojō tomorrow, and with the Day 13 torikumi announced before the Day 12 results, it's likely that Nishikigi will be Ichinojō's Day 13 opponent whatever the outcome of Nishikigi v Takakeishō on Day 12. Nishikifuji meanwhile starts fighting a better class of opponent in ex-ōzeki Tochinoshin tomorrow, and with Ichinojō probably preoccupied on Day 13, might have to wait for Day 14 to have a swing at Ichinojō.

With the big matches between the yokozuna and ōzeki still to go, we could see Terunofuji, Takakeishō, and Shōdai exchange places on the leaderboard. However, they've all fought Ichinojō already, so any intra-sanyaku carnage may wind up feeding Ichinojō the yūshō by default (e.g. if both Takakeishō and Shōdai beat Terunofuji, then Shōdai beats Takakeishō). Terunofuji's still the favourite, but it's not unlikely. With Mitakeumi's withdrawal, Day 13 should be Shōdai v Takakeishō, Day 14 Shōdai v Terunofuji, and Day 15 Takakeishō v Terunofuji, so this storyline will take a while to play out. Ichinojō has to stay perfect till then to safeguard the chance of that happening. Irritatingly, both ōzeki are entirely unpredictable; Takakeishō already has his KK so might decide to play it safe from here out, and Shōdai is Shōdai.

Day 11 Jūryō arasoi:
9-2: J1e Ryūden
8-3: J8e Hiradoumi, J13w Hokuseihō
7-4: J4w Mitoryū, J6w Bushōzan, J14e Chiyosakae, J14w Gōnoyama

This has to be one of the better performances by a jūryō promotion class, with two shin-jūryō bringing up the rear of the arasoi, a sai jūryō (but in his first proper jūryō basho) in hot pursuit, and the last member in all probability being in the thick of it had his stable not been benched.

Ryūden remains the frontrunner for the jūryō yūshō as well as makuuchi repromotion, knocking down Bushōzan today for his 9th win. Hiradoumi and Hokuseihō remain in hot pursuit, and Hiradoumi has the chance to open up the race tomorrow by beating Ryūden. If he does, a whole crowd at 7-4 is going to be much more in it, including Chiyosakae and Gōnoyama.

However, options for thinning down the race are limited since a lot of these bouts have already taken place. Ryūden will meet Hiradoumi tomorrow (day 12) and presumably Hokuseihō the day after (day 13), having already dispatched Mitoryū and Bushōzan. Chiyosakae and Gōnoyama are also technically possible opponents for days 14 and 15 even if the gap is a bit big, but it's too early to tell if those bouts will be necessary. Hiradoumi and Hokuseihō have already met, and in fact Hiradoumi has already fought everyone but Mitoryū in the arasoi, so that's probably his day 13 opponent. Bushōzan has already fought Ryūden and Hiradoumi, so with Hidenoumi for his Day 12 opponent, presumably his remaining opponents will be Hokuseihō, Chiyosakae, and Gōnoyama if those bouts are still relevant for the jūryō race. Things will clear up a bit over the next few days, and might even see Ryūden dragged down to 3 losses.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Semifinal-stage lower division arasoi

Makushita
6-0: Ms1w Kinbōzan, Ms38e Yoshii

Kinbōzan has fought like a man possessed after narrowly failing to secure promotion last basho. Barring weird things with the banzuke as a result of the multiple mid-basho COVID kyūjō, he's all but certain to take the place definitely vacated by Ishiura. It's been pointed out elsewhere that Kinbōzan went 7-0, 5-2, 7-0, 5-2 in his 4 basho since his Sd100TD debut in Kyūshū, so if nothing else his history seems to suggest another makushita yūshō is on the cards.

His opponent is Ms38e Yoshii, who was spoken of in somewhat exalted terms on his debut at the (nowadays) relatively tender age of 15 years and 7 months. Strong results in the lower divisions gradually gave way to borderline KKs, although he continued to make plodding progress upwards through makushita, until a pair of 2-5s last year and then a zenkyū in Kyūshū 2021 set him back further. Nonetheless, this 6-0 is his strongest performance in any basho yet (his 2 previous 6-1s both came with a round 3 loss so he was out of contention), though he must surely be the underdog in the ketteisen against Kinbōzan.

Sandanme
6-0: Sd22w Asanoyama, Sd67e Daiseizan, Sd88w Shinohara

As seen with the previous punitive demotions of Ryūden and Abi, the power of a makuuchi mainstay is too much for most regular denizens of sandanme. It would have been a surprise had Asanoyama not been in the arasoi, although he had to work hard for it against Sd39w Suguro today.

Joining him on the leaderboard is Sd67e Daiseizan, Arashio-beya's foreign recruit (from Inner Mongolia like ex-Sōkokurai), and Sd88w Shinohara. Shinohara is a mid-makushita regular, having fallen to sandanme through injury, so while his performance is to be expected, he must be considered the underdog in this arasoi. Daiseizan on the other hand has had a blistering rise up the ranks, pulling 6-1, 6-1 in his two full basho so far (and losing out on the jonidan yūshō last time only to Kototebakari II), so he's certainly a possible contender. With his ceiling as yet unknown, he most probably will be a bigger threat to Asanoyama for the yūshō than Shinohara is, although it's unlikely that he will have the ability to match a former ōzeki at this point.

Jonidan
6-0: Jd62e Hitoshi, Jd85e Rinko

Hitoshi is only in his 4th full basho despite having debuted over a year ago; he spent 3 basho out which effectively restarted his career. Oddly enough, he's gone 5-2 in both of his jonokuchi basho while going 6-0 for both his jonidan basho at this stage; that suggests his ceiling is a bit above jonidan. Rinko is one of the twins from Nishonoseki, in only his second full basho. He had a very average basho last time out, but seems to be on a tear this time out. It's a pity Ōshōumi was benched because of COVID kyūjō, otherwise he would have looked on track to join the two.

Jonokuchi
6-0: Jk17w Takahashi

Takahashi is another Nishonoseki recruit who finds himself the only person with 0 losses in day 6 of the lower division torikumi, with no one else able to catch up. That said, there are a bunch of 4-1s that could become 5-1s that could capitalise on a last minute slipup to force a playoff, though that is contingency upon contingency to speak of at the moment.

Lower division complications

The odd number of challengers in sandanme and jonokuchi seems to me (admittedly with an imperfect understanding of the lower divisions) to suggest that staggered off-division pairings might be used to resolve the lower division yūshō. However, this comes with two wrinkles: a) jonokuchi day 6 has yet to be completed, although the result might be academic, and b) the supposed matchup of Jd85e Rinko (the lower ranked of the jonidan contenders) and Jk17w Takahashi (the sole jonokuchi contender) cannot take place because they both belong to Nishonoseki-beya. This second problem might be sidestepped by assigning Hitoshi as Takahashi's opponent instead, although it's also entirely possible that they keep it entirely in-division instead depending on the jonokuchi day 6 results, and assign Shinohara a 5-1 in his division as his opponent. We'll see how this goes tomorrow.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Overreach be damned, let me at least put something up - if it's wrong by all means tear it down!

Day 11: Promotion/Demotion Picture

Sanyaku
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
	9-2	Terunofuji	Y
	8-3	Takakeisho	O	Mitakeumi	2-5-4	?
			O	Shodai	7-4	1
2	6-5	Wakatakakage	S	Daieisho	6-5	2
2	6-5	Hoshoryu	K	Abi	5-6	3
~	4-7	Kiribayama	M1	Takanosho	1-6-4	X
?	7-4	Kotonowaka	M2	Ichinojo	9-2	~
	4-7	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	5-6
	5-6	Wakamotoharu	M4	Takayasu	0-0-11	X
X	2-9	Endo	M5	Sadanoumi	3-8	X

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Well well, who'd have thunk it. Shōdai is one win away from clearing kadoban and looking like a lock to do it, so no changes in the upper sanyaku this time out. The lower sanyaku have all got average results. On identical records, Wakatakakage and Daieishō can fall no lower than komusubi with 1 more win each, and will secure their ranks with 2 more wins. Hōshōryū needs the full 2 wins, whereas Abi with an inferior record needs 3 wins.

The frontrunner for any open sanyaku spots must be Ichinojō, who's still kicking ass and taking names. However, with almost everyone else in the joi suffering near MKs, there's no immediate candidate to join him other than M6w Tobizaru. There's also an argument to be made that M2e Kotonowaka's 7-4 COVID-truncated result might be extrapolated to a KK by the banzuke committee for the purposes of promotions, which might see him promoted if two or more sanyaku spots open up. In any case, barring a complete and total meltdown of the lower sanyaku (and they must definitely feed wins to each other with the kore yori sanyaku coming up, among other things), it's not very likely that more than one spot opens up, so talking about a shin-sanyaku for either Tobizaru or Kotonowaka is premature. An even longer shot is Kiribayama, who's been wrestling better than his 4-7 would indicate and might claim a second open sanyaku slot by winning out, but... we'll get there when we get there.

There's also an outside possibility of Mitakeumi blocking an open sekiwake slot should either of the sekiwake fail to score their KK, in the event that the banzuke committee extrapolates his 2-5-4 to an MK and demotes him. That'd be a bit harsh, but not technically impossible.

Makuuchi-Jūryō
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
3	1-10	Shimanoumi	M9	Kotoeko	5-6	?
2	6-5	Chiyotairyu	M10	Meisei	6-5	2
?	5-6	Kotoshoho	M11	Midorifuji	7-4	1
3	5-6	Terutsuyoshi	M12	Takarafuji	5-6	3
?	6-3-2	Ichiyamamoto	M13	Chiyoshoma	5-6	3
1	7-4	Myogiryu	M14	Tsurugisho	5-6	3
2	6-5	Onosho	M15	Oho	7-4	1
3	5-6	Yutakayama	M16	Daiamami	2-7-2	X
O	8-3	Nishikifuji	M17	Chiyomaru	3-8	X
O	9-2	Ryuden	J1	Hidenoumi	5-6	3
?	4-7	Azumaryu	J2	Tohakuryu	3-8	?
3	6-5	Kagayaki	J3	Daishoho	3-8	X
~	4-7	Asanowaka	J4	Mitoryu	7-4	3
X	6-5	Chiyonokuni	J5	Tokushoryu	4-7	X
X	6-5	Atamifuji	J6	Bushozan	7-4	X

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

The makuuchi-jūryō exchange picture is complicated by a large number of COVID-kyūjō: Kotoekō, Kotoshōhō, Ichiyamamoto, and the J2 pair of Azumaryū and Tōhakuryū are all out for the count. For simplicity, the present analysis assumes that they won't be moved, although it might be necessary to have a bifurcated analysis at the end of the basho to deal with the various possible options the banzuke committee might choose (freezes or extrapolations).

First up for discussion must be the hapless Shimanoumi, who might have had a bit too much nuptial celebrations than is good for his sumo. 11-12 losses seems to be the dividing line to dump an M9 to jūryō, so let's just say he needs 3 wins to be safe, although I doubt he'll get them in his current state. Most everyone else around him would like to hit their KK for absolute safety, although marginal MKs probably won't do in anyone above M15, and that's what everyone else in this zone is looking likely to get with very average performances. 

The ones definitely going down would be makujiri Chiyomaru who has his MK already, and Daiamami with a combined 9 losses/absences. Nishikifuji is safe, but Yutakayama, Ōnoshō and Ōhō would like more wins for safety. Provisionally, that makes 2 slots open in makuuchi with a likely third (Shimanoumi) joining them, but it's not confirmed as yet.

Definitely going up would be Ryūden, who has his KK as binbo-gami and completes his return from an ignominious exile. Who joins him in makuuchi is not so clear, though. No one else in the promotion zone has a clear KK yet. If all win out, Mitoryū and Kagayaki would be frontrunners (at J-3 "by the numbers"), pipping Hidenoumi again (at J-2); this is very similar to what happened to Hidenoumi and Ryūden last basho where they were J0 by the numbers but pipped by the J6 11-4 pair going J-1 by the numbers.

Jūryō-Makushita
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
1	5-6	Kaisho	J9	Churanoumi	5-6	1
?	5-4-2	Shimazuumi	J10	Ishiura	0-0-11	X
3	3-8	Kaisei	J11	Tochimaru	3-8	3
2	6-5	Kitanowaka	J12	Yago	4-7	4
?	5-3-3	Oshoma	J13	Hokuseiho	8-3	O
1	7-4	Chiyosakae	J14	Gonoyama	7-4	1
1	3-3	Takakento	Ms1	Kinbozan	6-0	O
	4-2	Roga	Ms2	Kanno	4-2
	3-3	Tomokaze	Ms3	Daishomaru	3-3
	3-3	Kamito	Ms4	Chiyonoumi	2-4	X
X	2-4	Chiyoarashi	Ms5	Shohozan	0-0
X	2-4	Akiseyama	Ms6	Tsukahara	4-2
	3-2	Tsushimanada	Ms7	Kotoyusho	1-4	X
	5-1	Fujiseiun	Ms8	Hamayutaka	1-5	X

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Moving on to the jūryō-makushita exchange picture, only one move is confirmed so far: Kinbōzan will take the sekitori slot vacated by zenkyū Ishiura. It's honestly a bit of a waste for a Ms1 to go 7-0 when there's already a definite open slot and someone else could use the boost into the extended promotion zone, but Kinbōzan must be considered the yūshō favourite and his promotion is all but assured unless the banzuke committee freezes the entire banzuke.

Two more slots might open up depending on the performance of the MK J11 pair, who are thankfully high enough that marginal MKs won't necessarily do them in, as well as Yago who is one rank below but also has one more win. Kaisei in particular is a worry, but his basho has been nowhere near as wretched as Shimanoumi's and he has managed to pull two wins out in the last few days, so he might just stave off a fall to makushita. Tochimaru is not having a very good sophomore jūryō basho either.

Kaishō and Churanoumi will be relatively safe with just one more win, and in theory, Kitanowaka, Chiyosakae, and Gōnoyama aren't safe yet, but the last two have been wrestling well and are in theoretical yūshō contention so it's unlikely that they'll both crash out. 

With a whole bunch of marginal results in the makushita promotion zone, no one else is making a super strong case for promotion. If a second jūryō slot opens up, Takakento can claim it with a KK but might be pipped by whichever of Rōga or Kanno goes 5-2. Unless more slots open up (and in rather dramatic fashion to boot), the 3-3 trio of Tomokaze, Daishōmaru and Kamito are probably hard up, as will be Ms6w Tsukahara and everyone else below him. 

Edited July 20, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 4,150]

This has been perhaps the only basho where I have not looked forward to this thread.  They have some decisions to make in a week's time that have never needed to be considered before, and I don't think it's worth the effort to speculate on what they're going to do now.  For instance, Kotonowaka was very much on track to make a sanyaku debut, but now that he's out with 7 wins, will the fact that he had only 3 real losses make him move up, or will they say "eh, not technically a KK".  How they'll potentially handle Mitaekumi seems downright simple compared to what they'll do with people who have a lot more potential places to end up after being forced out halfway through.  They probably aren't even going to seriously discuss it until after the conclusion of the tournament so that a past decision doesn't come back to bite them as much when things change, so I doubt we'll get any hints as to what they'll do before then.

If you like to make speculation in this sort of very strange environment, I guess that's OK, but I doubt I will contribute to it further than this or even read any of what's written.  There's just too much up in the air for me to seriously contemplate.

Edited July 20, 2022 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Yeah, it's definitely a problem. I think the best policy for now is to assume those rikishi don't exist for the purposes of promotion or demotion, and then when the dust clears on day 15 we can then play with the various possibilities of what the banzuke committee may do. 

Heck, the whole thread might be moot if Isegahama and Oitekaze withdraw tomorrow and the NSK calls off the basho.

[Reonito 1,773]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

In any case, barring a complete and total meltdown of the lower sanyaku (and they must definitely feed wins to each other with the kore yori sanyaku coming up, among other things)

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only bout that hasn't taken place among the quartet is the presumed day 15 first kore yori matchup between Daieisho and Hoshoryu.

[Chartorenji 243]

6 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Yeah, it's definitely a problem. I think the best policy for now is to assume those rikishi don't exist for the purposes of promotion or demotion, and then when the dust clears on day 15 we can then play with the various possibilities of what the banzuke committee may do. 

Heck, the whole thread might be moot if Isegahama and Oitekaze withdraw tomorrow and the NSK calls off the basho.

Thanks for the work you did here btw, your promotion/demotion post is way more organized then mine haha

[Reonito 1,773]

I know it's weird to speculate in this uncertain environment, but this is my favorite thing to do late in a tournament, and it would be even weirder not to.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the only bout that hasn't taken place among the quartet is the presumed day 15 first kore yori matchup between Daieisho and Hoshoryu.

Yeah you're right, my bad. Just had a look at the w/l matrix and I definitely conflated the remaining ōzeki bouts. So the two of them are almost certain to speak for at least one komusubi slot, since either one of them is definitely going to get one more win. 

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

I know the sanyaku is the interesting part of the division, but what in the world are the top maegashira ranks going to look like?

The simple version is if there are only two komusubi, and even that's... oh boy. Say Abi goes 7-8 again and they treat Kotonowaka as effectively +3 wins over losses. Ichi goes to K, Kotonowaka's M1E, Abi's M1W. 

Then what?

It's starting to look like M1-5 might be mostly guys with losing records who were surrounded by so many other guys with losing records that they didn't have anywhere to fall. I'm really curious what kind of matchups they'll get the rest of the way, especially since we already have Tamawashi against Tsurugisho on day 12. Ura and Wakamotoharu have to win 3 of 4 to not drop, although 7-8 finishes would probably just put them at M5 (maybe M4E for Ura).

Even if all four of them mostly hold their ground, at minimum Takanosho, Endo, and Sadanoumi are tumbling way out of that section. Who replaces those three?

Tobizaru, of course. He's going to get dropkicked to Moscow in September, but he's obviously jumping up, even if he loses out to 8-7.

Nishikigi? He's not getting up there without at least one more win, and while the odds are in his favor, I don't think even that's a given.

Does Aoiyama turn it around to 8-7? What about Hokutofuji getting slapped around by Hoshoryu tonight, then winning out to 9-6? Midorifuji running the table to 11-4?

Tochinoshin in the joi again? 

And we only pick three if Kiri, Tamawashi, Ura, and Wakamotoharu cruise to a finish that keeps them top 5. If any of them collapse, this gets super-wild.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

It feels like not too long ago we had a similar GTB conundrum with a joi void. Looking at past banzuke it appears to be Hatsu-Haru 2021: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=202101. Can't be arsed to dig through the GTB threads to find the one I was complaining about, though.

The joi might be relatively straightforward. If the sanyaku stay the same, Ichinojō, Tobizaru, and Nishikigi are going to be in the joi, as will be Kotonowaka since at minimum his result will be frozen. Takayasu is also going to be frozen and judging by how they've been wrestling, I don't see Kiribayama, Tamawashi, or Wakamotoharu doing so badly that they tumble out of the joi altogether. Endō and Sadanoumi is a different matter, but there's no shortage of reasonable records from slightly lower like Hokutofuji, Tochinoshin, Meisei, Midorifuji and Chiyotairyū to replace then.

It's naturally a bit early to call, but the joi could look something like this:

East	Rank	West
Terunofuji	Y
Takakeishō	Ō	Shōdai
	Ō	Mitakeumi
Wakatakakage	S	Daieishō
Hōshōryū	K	Abi
Ichinojo	M1	Tobizaru
Kotonowaka	M2	Kiribayama
Nishikigi	M3	Ura
Wakamotoharu	M4	Takayasu
Aoiyama	M5	Tochinoshin

Give or take some half ranks (it's not impossible or improbable that Abi and Ichinojō will swap places, for instance) and Tamawashi is a rather glaring omission (probably pushing Aoiyama and Tochinoshin down half a rank), but as a rough draft it just goes to show the joi isn't that complicated - yet. Of course if people start dropping bouts then we have a problem, but we'll get there when we get there.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

It may sort itself out without the need for a lot of hard decisions, but the idea of Aoiyama and Tochinoshin both back up there at the same time is bonkers to me. I got into sumo when they were both hanging around the bottom of makuuchi due to their injury woes and making it really look like no country for old men, so this kind of comeback would be incredible to me.

But if the whole sanyaku holds, what does it take for Ichi to wrench open a third komusubi slot? Normally I would guess 11, but if there are already too many questions around the joi, maybe not. He'd have to get an extra K slot with 12, though, wouldn't he?

[Seiyashi 4,109]

5 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

It may sort itself out without the need for a lot of hard decisions, but the idea of Aoiyama and Tochinoshin both back up there at the same time is bonkers to me. I got into sumo when they were both hanging around the bottom of makuuchi due to their injury woes and making it really look like no country for old men, so this kind of comeback would be incredible to me.

I came in about the time when Tochinoshin had just made ōzeki and lost it about as quickly. So despite not coming into sumo because of him, seeing him up in the joi once more is going to feel like a well-deserved reward for his struggles.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

A quick update to the lower division arasoi. No changes in all divisions except for jonokuchi, where Jk16w Kazuto went 5-1 to emerge as a possible dark horse candidate for the yūshō. Two options here: either they do cross-division matching and Kazuto waits to see if Jd62e Hitoshi can put dirt on Jk17w Takahashi to force a playoff in jonokuchi, or Kazuto may be matched against Takahashi to force the playoff himself (and Shinohara in sandanme gets one of the 5-1s he hasn't already fought in that division).

[Chartorenji 243]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

A quick update to the lower division arasoi. No changes in all divisions except for jonokuchi, where Jk16w Kazuto went 5-1 to emerge as a possible dark horse candidate for the yūshō. Two options here: either they do cross-division matching and Kazuto waits to see if Jd62e Hitoshi can put dirt on Jk17w Takahashi to force a playoff in jonokuchi, or Kazuto may be matched against Takahashi to force the playoff himself (and Shinohara in sandanme gets one of the 5-1s he hasn't already fought in that division).

second option seems the most probable 

[Chartorenji 243]

(o) Takakeisho   O1 Mitakeumi (o*2)  

                  O2 (o) Shodai 

(o) Wakatakakage S Daieisho (1)               

(1) Hoshoryu K Abi (3)               

-

(x) Kiribayama M1                           

(x*1) Kotonowaka M2 Ichinojo (~)           

              M3 Ura (x) 

(x) Wakamotoharu M4                                  

-

                            M6 Tobizaru (x) 

 

Makuuchi-Juryo

(3) Shimanoumi M9                          

-

                                 M14 Tsurugisho (1) 

-

(1-2) Yutakayama M16 Daiamami (x)  

                                M17 Chiyomaru (x) 

-----------------------

                (o) Ryuden J1 Hidenoumi (3)       

-

 (3) Kagayaki J3                      

                           J4 Mitoryu (3)   

(3) Chiyonokuni J5                             

                          J6 Bushozan (3) 

-

 (x) Hiradoumi J8                           

 

Juryo-Makushita

                 J10 Ishiura (x) 

     (4) Kaisei J11 Tochimaru (3) 

            J12 Yago (2) 

-

Chiyosakae (o)  J14 (o) Gonoyama       

---------------------------------------

(1) Takakento Ms1 Kinbozan (o)     

(~) Roga Ms2 Kanno (~)  

(1) Tomokaze Ms3 Daishomaru (1) 

 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Day 12 Makuuchi arasoi:
10-2: Y1e Terunofuji, M2w Ichinojō
9-3: Ō1e Takakeishō
8-4: Ō2w Shōdai, M11w Nishikifuji, M14e Myōgiryū, M6w Tobizaru, M8w Nishikigi

With both leaders winning but most of the hiramaku losing, the arasoi saw a pretty drastic simplification today. Kotonowaka takes his formal leave from the arasoi, accompanied by Midorifuji and Ōhō. 

Other than the three senior sanyaku, the only hiramaku to win were Ichinojō and Myōgiryū (Ichinojō at Tobizaru's expense). Takakeishō gave Nishikigi the nodowa from hell to welcome him back to a higher class of opponent, Daieishō was far from his kinboshi form against Terunofuji, and Aoiyama simply had no power against Shōdai today, who cleared kadoban and is looking like his yūshō winning self again.

With the day 13 bouts shaping up, the arasoi promises to lose more contenders again. Nishikigi is up against Ichinojō, while Nishikifuji fights fellow four-loss Tobizaru, so it's a pretty good bet we'll lose two of the three hiramaku from this pack. Myōgiryū faces Meisei, who gave Ōhō a hell of a bout today, so that could go either way.

Moving forward, the endgame becomes clear. The four senior sanyaku embark on the round robin from tomorrow, as such:

• Day 13: Terunofuji v Wakatakakage, Takakeishō v Shōdai
• Day 14: Terunofuji v Shōdai, Takakeishō v Wakatakakage
• Day 15: Terunofuji v Takakeishō, Shōdai v Wakatakakage

While Wakatakakage has secured his sanyaku place, he's still in search for that crucial last win that will see him remain at sekiwake. That puts him in position to play spoiler against any of the senior sanyaku, although to be frank his sumo looks the worst of all four of them at the moment. The intra-sanyaku matchups mean that without losses from Ichinojō, about at most one of them can remain chasing him by senshūraku or else hand him the yūshō on a silver platter. With Terunofuji showing signs of weakness and Takakeishō and Shōdai both looking stronger as the basho goes on, it's anyone's guess who it will be.

Ichinojō on the other hand only needs to remain perfect against lesser opposition; having torn his way through most of the joi, the only opponents of any quality remaining are either the remnants of the arasoi in the form of Nishikifuji and Myōgiryū, or else any extended joi looking for their KK on senshūraku (e.g. Tochinoshin or Hokutofuji). Chances are high that in addition to losing most of the hiramaku, we'll also see at least one of the senior sanyaku drop out each day heading into day 15.

Day 12 Jūryō arasoi:
10-2: J1e Ryūden
9-3: J13w Hokuseihō
8-4: J6w Bushōzan, J8e Hiradoumi, J14e Chiyosakae, J14w Gōnoyama

Hiradoumi fought valiantly but ultimately failed to capitalise against Ryūden today, and wound up falling further behind the pace, replacing Mitoryū (fresh off a loss to Akua) in the 4-loss pack. While the 4-loss pack is still mathematically in it, they'll need to hope for Ryūden to drop at least 2 bouts for the yūshō line to be 11-4. There's still a possibility for a madcap playoff in jūryō should the three shinjūryō (well, 2+1 depending on how you count) all manage to pull down Ryūden, since they're looking like his most likely opponents for the rest of the basho. J1e v J14w bouts are rare (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&rank1=j1e&rank2=j14w) but have popped up occasionally in the past few years when the rikishi are otherwise well matched (in deep MKs or strong KKs with yūshō implications).

The opposition for Hokuseihō, now sole chaser in the yūshō race, will most likely consist of Ryūden and Bushōzan, the only other people in the yūshō race he has yet to fight. The last opponent will probably be one of the KK-hunting rikishi in jūryō.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Day 12 Promotion/Demotion Picture

All discussions assume for now that COVID-kyūjō rikishi will be frozen in their ranks.

Legend: 
? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome

Sanyaku
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
O	10-2	Terunofuji	Y
O	9-3	Takakeisho	O	Mitakeumi	2-5-4	?
			O	Shodai	8-4	O
1	7-5	Wakatakakage	S	Daieisho	6-6	2
1	7-5	Hoshoryu	K	Abi	6-6	2
3	5-7	Kiribayama	M1	Takanosho	1-6-4	X
?	7-4	Kotonowaka	M2	Ichinojo	10-2	~
3	5-7	Tamawashi	M3	Ura	5-7	3
3	5-7	Wakamotoharu	M4	Takayasu	0-0-11

Shōdai secures his KK with minimum fuss against Aoiyama, confirming no change in the upper sanyaku except perhaps him swapping spots with kyūjō Mitakeumi. Wakatakakage, Hōshōryū, and Abi all moved one step towards safety today. However, Wakatakakage has his work cut out for him, facing all three remaining upper sanyaku and looking not quite as sharp as he was during his yūshō run; that one win might be harder to get than it looks. Daieishō failed to secure sanyaku today, but has another (pretty good) try against Aoiyama tomorrrow. With Hōshōryū v Daieishō coming up on senshūraku, it's fairly certain we're going to see at least one if not both of Daieishō and Hōshōryū in the sanyaku next round, joined by Wakatakakage. With Abi managing to win today and not having many more dangerous opponents, there's a possibility that lower sanyaku might be the current incumbents slightly rearranged next basho.

With his win today, Ichinojō has definitely started the conversation on whether he has done enough to force a sanyaku spot should Abi not fall. He needs to stay perfect to maximise his chances of avoiding a playoff, so assuming the yūshō line is 13-2, he's likely to be able to force K2e if he does win or go to a playoff with Terunofuji. After Daieishō's "snub" for sekiwake, it's safe to say that the NSK tends on the stingy side when deciding when to create extra slots, so it's not clear if 12 wins will do it although 11 probably won't.

Meanwhile, Kiribayama and Tamawashi came one win closer to safety, while Ura and Wakamotoharu lost their bouts today. That puts all four of them on 5-7 needing to win out to stay in the joi. Ura has already fought the other three, so it's basically down to Wakamotoharu's bouts with Kiribayama and Tamawashi to see who stays.

Makuuchi-Jūryō
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
3	1-11	Shimanoumi	M9	Kotoeko	5-6	?
2	6-6	Chiyotairyu	M10	Meisei	7-5	1
?	5-6	Kotoshoho	M11	Midorifuji	7-5	1
3	5-7	Terutsuyoshi	M12	Takarafuji	6-6	2
?	6-3-2	Ichiyamamoto	M13	Chiyoshoma	5-7	3
O	8-4	Myogiryu	M14	Tsurugisho	5-7	3
1	7-5	Onosho	M15	Oho	7-5	1
2	6-6	Yutakayama	M16	Daiamami	2-8-2	X
O	8-4	Nishikifuji	M17	Chiyomaru	4-8	X
O	10-2	Ryuden	J1	Hidenoumi	5-7	3
?	4-7	Azumaryu	J2	Tohakuryu	3-8	?
2	6-6	Kagayaki	J3	Daishoho	4-8	X
3	5-7	Asanowaka	J4	Mitoryu	7-5	3
3	7-5	Chiyonokuni	J5	Tokushoryu	4-8	X
	6-6	Atamifuji	J6	Bushozan	8-4	O
	6-6	Akua	J7	Kotokuzan	6-6

Time is running out for Shimanoumi, who lost again today and might well suddenly find himself in jūryō next basho. He'd better pray that the jūryō joi don't suddenly wake up and start winning or he might well be. Meanwhile, Myōgiryū reached safety, Ōnoshō and Yutakayama both moved closer to it by one step, and Chiyoshōma and Tsurugishō both are one step away from a full MK and a bit more danger if they don't also start picking up some wins.

Nothing much changed in the jūryō joi. Everyone who had a chance of promotion other than Ryūden and Bushōzan lost today, leaving the promotion picture still unclear. Assuming winouts, Kagayaki and Mitoryū would beat Hidenoumi to any open spots, but if they all lose, the only other confirmed KK is J6 Bushōzan, who's a bit low for a promotion candidate who hasn't won the yūshō. If more losses pile up, the divisional exchange might not clear up till day 14.

EDIT: Most of the lower makuuchi results can probably do with one win less. As per @Sakura, even with a worst-case 7-8, Ōnoshō and Ōhō are safe, even if M17w disappears due to Ichinojō forcing K2e. 6-9 would almost certainly send Yutakayama down but a 7-8 would be more touch and go, especially with the lack of strong promotion candidates from jūryō. Correspondingly, Kagayaki and Mitoryū need to do much more to force the issue otherwise; both probably need to win out to try and make their case as strong as possible. Chiyonokuni and Bushōzan are probably going to have to wait one more basho.

Jūryō-Makushita
Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
O	8-4	Hiradoumi	J8	Enho	5-7	3
?	5-7	Kaisho	J9	Churanoumi	6-6	2
?	5-4-2	Shimazuumi	J10	Ishiura	0-0-11	X
3	3-9	Kaisei	J11	Tochimaru	4-8	3
2	6-6	Kitanowaka	J12	Yago	4-8	X
?	5-3-3	Oshoma	J13	Hokuseiho	9-3	O
O	8-4	Chiyosakae	J14	Gonoyama	8-4	O
1	3-3	Takakento	Ms1	Kinbozan	6-0	O
1	4-2	Roga	Ms2	Kanno	4-2	1
~	3-3	Tomokaze	Ms3	Daishomaru	3-3	~
~	3-3	Kamito	Ms4	Chiyonoumi	2-4	X
X	2-4	Chiyoarashi	Ms5	Shohozan	0-0

The biggest news here is Chiyosakae and Gōnoyama both securing their KKs today and ensuring another salaried basho, capping a very successful debut by most standards. On the other hand, almost everyone else in the double digit zone who was in danger lost, including Kaisei, Kitanowaka, and Yago (who went to a full MK this time). They might still save themselves with winouts, but more losses will start opening up some slots for promotion, chief amongst them Rōga and Kanno. Whether or not Takakento leapfrogs them depends on the result of the 7th round of makushita bouts. It's not looking likely that any more than the top 4 makushita toriteki will be promoted, assuming there isn't a catastrophic collapse in the bottom half of jūryō over the next three days.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,109]

4 hours ago, Chartorenji said:

second option seems the most probable 

Yep you're correct. Shinohara gets Sd71e Hanafusa (5-1) for his final day opponent, leaving Jonidan to sort itself out with Jd62e Hitoshi v Jd85e Rinko, and Jk17w Takahashi 6-0 against Jk16w Kazuto 5-1. Playoffs may result in sandanme and jonokuchi, if Shinohara and Kazuto win.

[rhyen 1,858]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

A quick update to the lower division arasoi. No changes in all divisions except for jonokuchi, where Jk16w Kazuto went 5-1 to emerge as a possible dark horse candidate for the yūshō. Two options here: either they do cross-division matching and Kazuto waits to see if Jd62e Hitoshi can put dirt on Jk17w Takahashi to force a playoff in jonokuchi, or Kazuto may be matched against Takahashi to force the playoff himself (and Shinohara in sandanme gets one of the 5-1s he hasn't already fought in that division).

The NSK might relish having playoffs for day 15, if only to pad some time fillers between Juryo & Makuuchi. 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

25 minutes ago, rhyen said:

The NSK might relish having playoffs for day 15, if only to pad some time fillers between Juryo & Makuuchi. 

Needs Shinohara and Kazuto to win in both cases. Otherwise, Takahashi wins and gets the yūshō, and Shinohara goes 6-1 with the loser of Asanoyama-Daiseizan. Shinohara forcing a playoff might be good though, gives Asanoyama an early return to a bit of the limelight. 

Edited July 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

Quick question, because Google isn't helping me enough here: is the arasoi the leaderboard? Seems like it, given how it's being used here, but all Google says is that it means conflict or similar general words.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Yeah, the kanji for arasoi literally means struggle, fight, conflict, but in the context of the phrase "yūshō arasoi" means leaderboard by metaphor. It's literally the fight for the yūshō. The standalone usage in English is a bit deceiving since it discards the noun that lends it context.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Sakura 1,523]

@Seiyashi. Obviously this is going to be different since COVID-kuyjos, but I'd posit that Onosho and Oho are already safe despite not having a kachi-koshi and that Kagayki needs 3 by the numbers (amongst other similar results).