How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

[Asashosakari 19,669]

2 minutes ago, Asapedroryu said:

As Asashosakari mentions, that basho also had the sekiwake 2 or 3 issue, but that won't impact on the above analisys of the Komosubi.

Of course it does, since players who created additional sekiwake almost certainly would have created further additional komusubi otherwise.

Anyway, disregarding the 6 players who had the wrong number of ozeki:

4 lower sanyaku: 41 players
5 lower sanyaku: 43 players (2S+3K: 26, 3S+2K: 17)
6 lower sanyaku: 10 players (2S+4K: 7, 3S+3K: 2, 4S+2K: 1)

The 4 players who didn't promote Takakeisho to ozeki (= 1 excess lower sanyaku) had 4+2 (twice) and 3+3 (twice), the 2 players who didn't demote Tochinoshin (= 1 too few lower sanyaku) had 2+2 and 2+3.

(There was also a player who inexplicably demoted Takayasu and promoted Mitakeumi, but at least their ozeki count was correct that way... They're included among the 94 players of the main summary.)

[Asapedroryu 235]

1 hour ago, Asashosakari said:

Of course it does, since players who created additional sekiwake almost certainly would have created further additional komusubi otherwise.

 

Are you saying the number I gave for Komosubi is wrong? In my view, what happened above or below the rank didn't impact my results. It could have had an impact, but it didn't.

What would be the correct number of Komosubi, as per your analysis?

There is a way to settle this and get the results 100% correct and not up for discussion, which is to open the individual results of the 100 players and check one by one. Any volunteers?

[Asapedroryu 235]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

So.... it's still easier to create the poll?

(at least until I get the itch to analyse GTB picks with a script or two)

Depends on each individual opinion.

In my view, the poll has 2 premises difficult to prove:

1 - All 100+ players that played gtb will participate in the poll and only those.

2 - That each player will vote exactly the same way they have played.

When we do have the correct data in a few days, from where we can take the results with 100% accuracy, the poll doesn't look the easiest to me.

Please note that I'm not saying this poll is stupid or doesn't make sense or any of that. So far, at least to me, it has given an interesting discussion and I've learnt something, so it is worthy.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

3 hours ago, Asapedroryu said:

Depends on each individual opinion.

In my view, the poll has 2 premises difficult to prove:

1 - All 100+ players that played gtb will participate in the poll and only those.

2 - That each player will vote exactly the same way they have played.

When we do have the correct data in a few days, from where we can take the results with 100% accuracy, the poll doesn't look the easiest to me.

Please note that I'm not saying this poll is stupid or doesn't make sense or any of that. So far, at least to me, it has given an interesting discussion and I've learnt something, so it is worthy.

Yeah, that's definitely fair. The poll was pretty much a way to get a quick and dirty pulse of the GTB sentiments, given that there seems to be more hankering for extra komusubi this basho. 

[Gurowake 4,109]

3 hours ago, Asapedroryu said:

Are you saying the number I gave for Komosubi is wrong? In my view, what happened above or below the rank didn't impact my results.

There is an argument that the number of total lower sanyaku is more relevant that the number of Komusubi when it comes to this sort of analysis, unless you literally only care about the number of Komusubi.  In reality, the actual number that's most important is the total for all sanyaku, but because there's no secrecy to the upper sanyaku, the focus is on getting the number of lower sanyaku correct.  If you get that wrong, whether you have the correct number of Komusubi or Sekiwake is almost entirely irrelevant.

[Gurowake 4,109]

5 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

There was also a player who inexplicably demoted Takayasu and promoted Mitakeumi,

I swear some of the entries are done by making selections at random.  If it's offered by the entry form, someone is probably going to choose it.  See, for example, Shimazuumi being picked for Makuuchi last basho.  I don't know how anyone could actually conclude he'd get promoted, but he was offered as a choice for promotion just in case, and so someone picked up.

[Reonito 1,523]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

There is an argument that the number of total lower sanyaku is more relevant that the number of Komusubi when it comes to this sort of analysis, unless you literally only care about the number of Komusubi.  In reality, the actual number that's most important is the total for all sanyaku, but because there's no secrecy to the upper sanyaku, the focus is on getting the number of lower sanyaku correct.  If you get that wrong, whether you have the correct number of Komusubi or Sekiwake is almost entirely irrelevant.

Right, when Daieisho after his yusho was only promoted to K2 instead of S2 like we all thought he would be, it was only worth 2 GTB points.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

15 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I swear some of the entries are done by making selections at random.  If it's offered by the entry form, someone is probably going to choose it.  See, for example, Shimazuumi being picked for Makuuchi last basho.  I don't know how anyone could actually conclude he'd get promoted, but he was offered as a choice for promotion just in case, and so someone picked up.

Probably some percentage of those is due to fat finger error as well, or just misclicking something.

[Asapedroryu 235]

18 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

There is an argument that the number of total lower sanyaku is more relevant that the number of Komusubi when it comes to this sort of analysis, unless you literally only care about the number of Komusubi.  In reality, the actual number that's most important is the total for all sanyaku, but because there's no secrecy to the upper sanyaku, the focus is on getting the number of lower sanyaku correct.  If you get that wrong, whether you have the correct number of Komusubi or Sekiwake is almost entirely irrelevant.

The question was "How many Komosubi did players picked?". My answer, with the calculations of how i got there is on page 1.

You seemed to have quoted something out of context.

[Gurowake 4,109]

2 hours ago, Asapedroryu said:

The question was "How many Komosubi did players picked?". My answer, with the calculations of how i got there is on page 1.

You seemed to have quoted something out of context.

Yes, if your question is "how many Koumusbi did players pick?" then you should correctly focus only on the Komusubi.  But this thread is specifically about Nagoya 2021, and I don't think there's going to be very many people, if any, that predict more than one Sekiwake, and there's not any uncertainty about the number of upper sanyaku, so the question of "How many Komusubi?" is equivalent to the question of "How many sanyaku?".  The latter question is, in general, the one that's the most relevant when talking about GTB.  The fact that the question for Nagoya 2021 was phrased only in terms of Komusubi reflects the extremely likely situation where every single person predicts the same number of sanyaku other than Komusubi.  If there was a real possibility that people might pick more than 2 Sekiwake for Nagoya 2021, I suspect that the poll would reflect that option.

The point is that if you're going to analyze past GTB picks, you need to consider not only how many extra Komusubi were predicted, but also how many Sekiwake, because it's the sum of those two that's most relevant for the game.  That Sekiwake were not asked about in this poll is simply because there's no uncertainty.

[Reonito 1,523]

11 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

The fact that the question for Nagoya 2021 was phrased only in terms of Komusubi reflects the extremely likely situation where every single person predicts the same number of sanyaku other than Komusubi.  If there was a real possibility that people might pick more than 2 Sekiwake for Nagoya 2021, I suspect that the poll would reflect that option.

I've certainly seen people (not necessarily GTB players) argue for 3 sekiwake, with Hoshoryu moving up, not that there's any real chance of that happening.

[Asapedroryu 235]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

Yes, if your question is "how many Koumusbi did players pick?" then you should correctly focus only on the Komusubi.  But this thread is specifically about Nagoya 2021, and I don't think there's going to be very many people, if any, that predict more than one Sekiwake, and there's not any uncertainty about the number of upper sanyaku, so the question of "How many Komusubi?" is equivalent to the question of "How many sanyaku?".  The latter question is, in general, the one that's the most relevant when talking about GTB.  The fact that the question for Nagoya 2021 was phrased only in terms of Komusubi reflects the extremely likely situation where every single person predicts the same number of sanyaku other than Komusubi.  If there was a real possibility that people might pick more than 2 Sekiwake for Nagoya 2021, I suspect that the poll would reflect that option.

The point is that if you're going to analyze past GTB picks, you need to consider not only how many extra Komusubi were predicted, but also how many Sekiwake, because it's the sum of those two that's most relevant for the game.  That Sekiwake were not asked about in this poll is simply because there's no uncertainty.

Sorry, but did you actually read the full thing or just looked at the last post and decided to reply to that?

Same as my last answer to you. You are quoting out of context and saying things I've never written.

[Asashosakari 19,669]

56 minutes ago, Asapedroryu said:

Sorry, but did you actually read the full thing or just looked at the last post and decided to reply to that?

My original objection was effectively what Gurowake has since described. Yes, your counts were correct, but they were the answer to a question that wasn't very meaningful to begin with and, like Gurowake, I doubted that that was the question Seiyashi was intending to have answered in bringing up Kyushu 2019.

Edited June 24, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,109]

17 hours ago, Asapedroryu said:

You are quoting out of context

The context of your quotes are not relevant to the point about caring about Sekiwake.  The point is:

Goeido S Tochiozan

Myogiryu S2  --

Toyonoshima K Aminishiki

has more in common with

Goeido S Tochiozan

Myogiryu K Toyonoshima

Aminishiki K2 ---

than it does with

Goeido S Tochiozan

Myogiryu K Toyonoshima.

for the vast majority of purposes when it comes to GTB.   That's the argument we're making for why you shouldn't be considering Komusubi only when analyzing players' choices for lower sanyaku.  If someone asked for an analysis of the number of Komusubi, then this is an attempt to get them to realize that what they meant to ask for was an analysis of lower sanyaku choices, because the choices for number of Komusubi depend on the choices for the number of Sekiwake.

 

Edited June 25, 2022 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 4,108]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

6 hours ago, Gurowake said:

The fact that the question for Nagoya 2021 was phrased only in terms of Komusubi reflects the extremely likely situation where every single person predicts the same number of sanyaku other than Komusubi.  If there was a real possibility that people might pick more than 2 Sekiwake for Nagoya 2021, I suspect that the poll would reflect that option.

I've certainly seen people (not necessarily GTB players) argue for 3 sekiwake, with Hoshoryu moving up, not that there's any real chance of that happening.

Pretty much yeah. I don't think there's really any question of extra sekiwake slots this time, but extra komusubi is not impossible, and it will throw out the rest of a GTB guess if everyone is in the same order but there's an extra set of haridashi komusubi. If there are 4 komusubi this time, for instance, pretty much all the 2-komusubi guesses are going to be lucky to score much more points than for the sanyaku, as opposed to a misranking of two extra sanyaku members which will only lose 2 points per rikishi as per the Daieishō case.

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

If someone asked for an analysis of the number of Komusubi, then this is an attempt to get them to realize that what they meant to ask for was an analysis of lower sanyaku choices, because the choices for number of Komusubi depend on the choices for the numher of Sekiwake.

I wouldn't put it quite so strongly but it was implicit, yes. As Reonito said, in a situation where there is realistically no chance for haridashi sekiwake, the question of number of komusubi is functionally identical to number of lower sanyaku because the default is overwhelmingly going to be 2 sekiwake and it's usually fairly obvious when there might be 3.

That being said, considering the NSK seems to be stingier and stingier about handing out sekiwake promotions and we probably know how even special situations like demoted ōzeki are handled, the number of sekiwake is generally rarely in doubt and only something quite interesting like Daieishō's "underpromotion" to komusubi disambiguates "how many sekiwake/komusubi" vs "how many lower sanyaku". In that case the number of lower sanyaku was never in doubt, but how high Daieishō was going to be promoted would be.

Edited June 25, 2022 by Seiyashi

[Asashosakari 19,669]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

That being said, considering the NSK seems to be stingier and stingier about handing out sekiwake promotions and we probably know how even special situations like demoted ōzeki are handled, the number of sekiwake is generally rarely in doubt and only something quite interesting like Daieishō's "underpromotion" to komusubi disambiguates "how many sekiwake/komusubi" vs "how many lower sanyaku". In that case the number of lower sanyaku was never in doubt, but how high Daieishō was going to be promoted would be.

But isn't that exactly where something like the Kyushu 2019 GTB shows that a lot of entrants still expect more generous promotions than there are going to be? I would say that nearly all of the "big" GTB players would have been very surprised by more than two sekiwake back then, yet nearly a quarter of the field had 3 or 4 of them anyway. The observed stinginess was hardly a new phenomenon anymore even three years ago. That's why it's rarely a good idea to a priori limit the analysis to just the komusubi.

(And I'd argue that it's likely to be a sizable share this time too, despite even less justification for 3+, since GTB is currently going through a popularity spell and the quality of the average entry tends to drop whenever the game gets a lot of more casual players.)

Edited June 25, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,109]

12 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

the NSK seems to be stingier and stingier about handing out sekiwake promotions

I wouldn't put it quite on those terms.  There's only been one occasion recently where a Sekiwake promotion was expected and not given, and that was in a very rare situation.  11 win Komusubi without open Sekiwake slots available happen a bit more often, there's a very clear line that's been put in place, and they haven't stopped promoting those.  Sure, maybe once upon a time they promoted 10 win Komusubi as well, but that was a long time ago, and they handed out more Komusubi promotions too then.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

1 hour ago, Gurowake said:

I wouldn't put it quite on those terms.  There's only been one occasion recently where a Sekiwake promotion was expected and not given, and that was in a very rare situation.  11 win Komusubi without open Sekiwake slots available happen a bit more often, there's a very clear line that's been put in place, and they haven't stopped promoting those.  Sure, maybe once upon a time they promoted 10 win Komusubi as well, but that was a long time ago, and they handed out more Komusubi promotions too then.

I take the general sentiment, but IIRC there hasn't been an 11-win komusubi without an open sekiwake slot since Daieishō's case, right?

[Reonito 1,523]

38 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I take the general sentiment, but IIRC there hasn't been an 11-win komusubi without an open sekiwake slot since Daieishō's case, right?

There has, none other than Daieisho himself two years ago; he went 11-4, as did both incumbents, and was duly promoted to S2e, conveniently opening up a slot for M1e Endo (8-7) and denying us a chance to see whether that would have forced an extra komusubi slot. I treat 11+ wins at komusubi as an automatic promotion until I see a counterexample.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

3 minutes ago, Reonito said:

There has, none other than Daieisho himself two years ago; he went 11-4, as did both incumbents, and was duly promoted to S2e, conveniently opening up a slot for M1e Endo (8-7) and denying us a chance to see whether that would have forced an extra komusubi slot. I treat 11+ wins at komusubi as an automatic promotion until I see a counterexample.

Eh, that predates the stingier than expected promotion for him for his 2021 yūshō, doesn't it? The point I'm trying to get at is whether Daieishō being promoted to komusubi rather than sekiwake in 2021 heralds the banzuke committee perhaps tightening forced promotion criteria, which we haven't had any chance to find out the hard way whether a komusubi now requires e.g. 12 wins to force an extra slot, for instance.

[Reonito 1,523]

46 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Eh, that predates the stingier than expected promotion for him for his 2021 yūshō, doesn't it? The point I'm trying to get at is whether Daieishō being promoted to komusubi rather than sekiwake in 2021 heralds the banzuke committee perhaps tightening forced promotion criteria, which we haven't had any chance to find out the hard way whether a komusubi now requires e.g. 12 wins to force an extra slot, for instance.

Right, sorry, got my dates mixed up. I don't think we really had a clear idea of what it takes to force an extra sekiwake (rather than komusubi) slot from maegashira, as there haven't been any instances of this since the 1990s, while 11+ at komusubi has been very consistently applied. The criteria may only have been "tightened up" relative to our expectations, which were based on what was done in a very different banzuke era (when, for instance, the kosho system was still in effect).

Edited June 25, 2022 by Reonito

[Gurowake 4,109]

15 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I don't think we really had a clear idea of what it takes to force an extra sekiwake (rather than komusubi) slot from maegashira

It's one of those things that happens rarely enough that we're probably never going to get a set answer.  Based on some of their choices in the last 5 years or so I'm surprised that the line at 11 wins as a Komusubi is as clean-cut as it is.  There's certainly a very good argument to be made that 10 wins should be enough, as it was in times in the past.

[Reonito 1,523]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

It's one of those things that happens rarely enough that we're probably never going to get a set answer.  Based on some of their choices in the last 5 years or so I'm surprised that the line at 11 wins as a Komusubi is as clean-cut as it is.  There's certainly a very good argument to be made that 10 wins should be enough, as it was in times in the past.

I'm tempted to say that if 13-2 Y from M1 wasn't enough, nothing is, but as you say, it comes up rarely enough that the next time the logic could be entirely different.