How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

[Seiyashi 2,728]

As the title says. There's anecdotal evidence for some guesses with 3 or 4 komusubi, helped by the strong joi performances. Which did you pick?

[WAKATAKE 2,256]

Everybody being conservative this time, and they're probably right

[Yarimotsu 104]

If I were building the banzuke myself, there'd probably be 3 maybe 4. But I'm not, so my guess has 2.

[Kintamayama 38,735]

So I'm the only one who went with three..

[Reonito 392]

31 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

So I'm the only one who went with three..

Who got the extra slot in your guess?

[Kujo 82]

2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

So I'm the only one who went with three..

Three? I am curious as to how you picked one over another (I can see four).

Surely you could have done it properly and went with six komusubi  

I went with two but fully expect this to be my worst GTB ever

Edited June 22 by Kujo

[Hankegami 132]

It's just my second GTB and my first went an awful 5-10, so I don't pretend to be much of a source, but... Well, I went for two since the beginning, well before news that Nishikifuji was promoted to Maakuchi broke out. Part of my reasoning - aside for a well-established tendency to keep only two Sekiwake and Komosubi whenever possible - was that opening extra Komusubi slots would have made M16 the lowest Maakuchi spot, potentially jeopardizing the position of Oho and Yutakayama. Also, such a maneuver would have caused additional problems for the already complex mid-banzuke make-up.

Edited June 23 by Hankegami

[Asapedroryu 157]

Can't we get the real data from the GTB? First time in years i've played GTB, but remember in the past there was a chart that showed how many ppl picked what.

Anyway, my guess of 2 seems in line with most ppl. Unless the ones voted are part of my 0 to 5 wins group.

[Seiyashi 2,728]

4 minutes ago, Asapedroryu said:

Can't we get the real data from the GTB? First time in years i've played GTB, but remember in the past there was a chart that showed how many ppl picked what.

Anyway, my guess of 2 seems in line with most ppl. Unless the ones voted are part of my 0 to 5 wins group.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=202205

You mean this one?

Doesn't break down what each player picked in total, though, so it doesn't necessarily help.

[Kintamayama 38,735]

12 hours ago, Kujo said:

Three? I am curious as to how you picked one over another (I can see four).

Surely you could have done it properly and went with six komusubi  

I went with two but fully expect this to be my worst GTB ever

Easy - Kiribayama with a 10-5  at M2. Takanoshou was 11-4 at W4. Why both of them? I thought Kiribayama should come before Takanoshou. A 10-5 from M2 seemed to me a better shot than an 11-4 from M4, for some reason..

Edited June 23 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 38,735]

14 hours ago, Reonito said:

Who got the extra slot in your guess?

Kiribayama, for reasons stated in the quote before this

[Kujo 82]

 

19 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Easy - Kiribayama with a 10-5  at M2. Takanoshou was 11-4 at W4. Why both of them? I thought Kiribayama should come before Takanoshou. A 10-5 from M2 seemed to me a better shot than an 11-4 from M4, for some reason..

 

That makes complete sense Moti-san, unfortunately the MIB frequently have me scratching my (bald) head in wonder   

[Gurowake 3,098]

3 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=202205

You mean this one?

Doesn't break down what each player picked in total, though, so it doesn't necessarily help.

If you click on the rikishi names, you can get a list of where all players put that rikishi.  It also helpfully tells you the player's score so you know whether each pick is associated with a good score or not.

Edited June 23 by Gurowake

[Seiyashi 2,728]

1 minute ago, Gurowake said:

If you click on the rikishi names, you can get a list of where all players put that rikishi.

I know, but that still doesn't solve our problem of how many players picked exactly how many komusubi (rather than who at where). It's not intractable, but I can't be arsed to write another seven scripts for a relatively basic question - it's not like the answer is waiting on the face of the DB either so far easier to just make a poll, take the pulse and be done with it. 

As it turns out seems like most people stuck with a perception of sanity.

Edited June 23 by Seiyashi

[Gurowake 3,098]

3 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

I know, but that still doesn't solve our problem of how many players picked exactly how many komusubi (rather than who at where). It's not intractable, but I can't be arsed to write another seven scripts for a relatively basic question - it's not like the answer is waiting on the face of the DB either so far easier to just make a poll, take the pulse and be done with it. 

As it turns out seems like most people stuck with a perception of sanity.

True, it takes more work, but the information is there if you want to collate it.  It shouldn't be too hard to see how many extra Komusubi were picked just by adding up all the picks for Komusubi in total.  In fact, just looking at the grid, there were clearly 3 extra Komusubi chosen, and zooming in they were all on different ballots.  If more people pick additionally Komusubi it'll get harder to determine, but it shouldn't be too hard to manually inspect it.  At least, it looks like there's plenty of people that have gone with 2, so I suspect that's still going to be the majority and it won't be hard to see how many extra ones there are.

[Seiyashi 2,728]

4 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

True, it takes more work, but the information is there if you want to collate it.  It shouldn't be too hard to see how many extra Komusubi were picked just by adding up all the picks for Komusubi in total.  In fact, just looking at the grid, there were clearly 3 extra Komusubi chosen, and zooming in they were all on different ballots.  If more people pick additionally Komusubi it'll get harder to determine, but it shouldn't be too hard to manually inspect it.  At least, it looks like there's plenty of people that have gone with 2, so I suspect that's still going to be the majority and it won't be hard to see how many extra ones there are.

Please, don't tempt me to write another paper analysing the patterns of GTB picks.... XD

[Ryoshishokunin 203]

29 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Please, don't tempt me to write another paper analysing the patterns of GTB picks.... XD

Pattern: someone always picks more K or S.  At least a few people don't operate the E/W situation correctly when odd numbers are involved.  

[Seiyashi 2,728]

5 minutes ago, Ryoshishokunin said:

Pattern: someone always picks more K or S.  At least a few people don't operate the E/W situation correctly when odd numbers are involved.  

You're not helping~~ 

If someone always picks more K/S, then that's background noise; what we want to know is that above that noise, how many people start thinking extra K/S should be involved when a couple of the joi turn in strong performances. Quite obviously when the whole joi gets murdered by a strong sanyaku, no one in their right mind would be picking extra K/S there.

Also there's the possibility of clerical error, albeit not a very strong possibility...

Edited June 23 by Seiyashi

[Asapedroryu 157]

5 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I know, but that still doesn't solve our problem of how many players picked exactly how many komusubi (rather than who at where). It's not intractable, but I can't be arsed to write another seven scripts for a relatively basic question - it's not like the answer is waiting on the face of the DB either so far easier to just make a poll, take the pulse and be done with it.

Looking at the May one it shows that 1 player choosed 3 Komosubi (Takayasu as K2E) and another player choosed 4 (Ichinojo as K2E and Takayasu as K2W).

If that was July, then the answer to your question would be from the 132 players, 130 choosed 2 K, 1 choosed 3 K and 1 choosed 4 K.

 

[Seiyashi 2,728]

12 hours ago, Asapedroryu said:

Looking at the May one it shows that 1 player choosed 3 Komosubi (Takayasu as K2E) and another player choosed 4 (Ichinojo as K2E and Takayasu as K2W).

If that was July, then the answer to your question would be from the 132 players, 130 choosed 2 K, 1 choosed 3 K and 1 choosed 4 K.

 

So two things: one, we don't have July's yet. And it's trivial where the number of people who pick more than 2 komusubi is so small that their pick is obvious on the face of it, like for May, but say for the 4-komusubi banzuke in Kyūshū 2019, it's not so obvious how many picked what: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=201911. You can sort of vaguely tell that there were 15 picks for K2e and 30 picks for K2w, but does it necessarily follow that 15 went for 3 komusubi and 15 went for 4? (K2w only because there was O2e and 2 yokozuna, so the sanyaku could be balanced).

Edited June 24 by Seiyashi

[Asapedroryu 157]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

So two things: one, we don't have July's yet. And it's trivial where the number of people who pick more than 2 komusubi is so small that their pick is obvious on the face of it, like for May, but say for the 4-komusubi banzuke in Kyūshū 2019, it's not so obvious how many picked what: http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBSelectionBasho.aspx?b=201911. You can sort of vaguely tell that there were 15 picks for K2e and 30 picks for K2w, but does it necessarily follow that 15 went for 3 komusubi and 15 went for 4? (K2w only because there was O2e and 2 yokozuna, so the sanyaku could be balanced).

That was my initial question - "Can't we get the real data from the GTB" - Then the answer is No. Not until banzuke is released.

Btw, results for Kyushu 19 were 62 with 2K, 31 with 3K and 7 with 4K

[Seiyashi 2,728]

7 minutes ago, Asapedroryu said:

Btw, results for Kyushu 19 were 62 with 2K, 31 with 3K and 7 with 4K

How'd you get that?

[Asashosakari 16,472]

That basho also had plenty of people going for more than two sekiwake, though, so not like the komusubi counts alone are all that meaningful.

[Asapedroryu 157]

1 hour ago, Seiyashi said:

How'd you get that?

7 Players picked Hokutofuji as K2E. From those, 5 left K2W blank, while 2 picked Asanoyama

8 Players picked Asanoyama as K2E. From those, 3 left K2W blank and 5 picked someone (all Hokutofuji, btw)

From the above we know already that 7 players picked 4 Komosubi.

To identify how many have picked 3 Komosubi, sum the K2W (27+3=30). From those 30 you need to deduct the 7 that picked 4K and you get to 23. From the analisys on the K2E above, we identified that there were 8 (5 Hoku + 3 Asa) that left K2W blank, so just need to add those 8 to the 23 and get the 31 previously mentioned.

For the 2 Komosubi, just sum the 3K + 4K (31 + 7 = 38) and deduct from the total number of players (100). You will get 62 players as 2K (100 - 38 = 62)

 

As Asashosakari mentions, that basho also had the sekiwake 2 or 3 issue, but that won't impact on the above analisys of the Komosubi.

 

 

[Seiyashi 2,728]

So.... it's still easier to create the poll?

(at least until I get the itch to analyse GTB picks with a script or two)