Preparations of the masses- Aki 2021

[Kintamayama 45,552]

Houshouryuu did not train today against heyamates Meisei and Aquaman and preferred to lend his chest to the lower rankers of the heya. "I'm feeling good about the way my body is moving and am able to do better sumo than I expected. I'm looking forward to facing the top guys at my highest rank (M1) and hope to get my kachikoshi without injuries. Too bad Hakuhou is out. After all, he's the number one guy I wanted to face. It didn't happen last basho and I was sure I could finally face him this basho and was looking forward to it, but the Corona virus saw to it that it is not to be.." he said. He won't be facing Hakuhou, but his motivation has not waned. "Meisei is there to train with me and we gambarize training with each other. He motivates me to want to get up there in the ranks as well. He is a great training partner and a great senpai!" he added. "I want to concentrate day by day even more than before and take this very seriously.." he summed.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 45,552]

New Sekiwake Meisei trained today at the heya. "I am going all out as usual. I feel I'm coming along well and hoping not to get injured.. " he said. After returning to Makuuchi last Aki basho, he is in the midst of a six basho consecutive kachikoshi run and is the first Sekiwake out of Tatsunami beya since Kitao (later Yokozuna Futahaguro the scandalous) in 1985. "I do want to win double digit wins, but first I need to get my kachikoshi. As for Ozeki aspirations, I'm very far from that at the moment power wise. I'm working to add more power at this rank and hopefully will be able to do my own sumo while aiming higher," he said.

Edited September 7, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Tigerboy1966 1,475]

1 hour ago, Kintamayama said:

"Meisei is there to train with me and we gambarize training with each other. He motivates me to want to get up there in the ranks as well. He is a great training partner and a great senpai!"

Does Tatsunami have the next two ozeki?

[Seiyashi 4,108]

23 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Does Tatsunami have the next two ozeki?

Not out of the question. Meisei hasn't shown anything great so far but he's diligent, for sure, and a late career ozeki promotion certainly is possible. As for Hoshoryu, well, a bit more consistency and he might even be #74/75.

[Tigerboy1966 1,475]

2 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Meisei hasn't shown anything great so far but he's diligent, for sure, and a late career ozeki promotion certainly is possible

Meisei's favourite film quote is from Pulp Fiction:

"That's how you're gonna beat 'em Butch. They keep underestimating you."

[Seiyashi 4,108]

Although in all seriousness having a training partner at your level is historically a really good thing. I wouldn't be surprised if Meisei holds down a lower sanyaku slot from here out and Hoshoryu put together an ozeki challenge from this basho. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,475]

With Takakeisho looking increasingly fragile and Shodai being, well.. Shodai, we are probably going to need a couple of new ozeki fairly soon.  There's always Mitakeumi I suppose, but as I'm in a quoting mood "You say it's gonna happen now, but when exactly do you mean? See I've already waited too long, and all my hope is gone". (Morrissey)

[Yamanashi 3,909]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

With Takakeisho looking increasingly fragile and Shodai being, well.. Shodai, we are probably going to need a couple of new ozeki fairly soon.  There's always Mitakeumi I suppose, but as I'm in a quoting mood "You say it's gonna happen now, but when exactly do you mean? See I've already waited too long, and all my hope is gone". (Morrissey)

Mitakeumi, Takayasu, Ichinojo, Hoshoryu (no crystal ball, just scanning the joi and looking for strength or youth).

[Sue 520]

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

With Takakeisho looking increasingly fragile and Shodai being, well.. Shodai, we are probably going to need a couple of new ozeki fairly soon.  There's always Mitakeumi I suppose, but as I'm in a quoting mood "You say it's gonna happen now, but when exactly do you mean? See I've already waited too long, and all my hope is gone". (Morrissey)

Not sure about "fairly soon," especially for TK, who's young. But hey, if Shodai can make his long-joked-about ozeki run happen, why not Mita?

[Sue 520]

1 hour ago, Yamanashi said:

Mitakeumi, Takayasu, Ichinojo, Hoshoryu (no crystal ball, just scanning the joi and looking for strength or youth).

Mitakeumi: Is "Next Ozeki Mitakeumi" the next "Next Ozeki Shodai" joke? Shodai eventually made it.
Takayasu: He's on a run of good form, and a couple of good performances could bring him back.
Ichinojo: His back problems probably mean he's a no.
Hoshoryu: Potential!

[Yamanashi 3,909]

51 minutes ago, Sue said:

Mitakeumi: Is "Next Ozeki Mitakeumi" the next "Next Ozeki Shodai" joke? Shodai eventually made it.
Takayasu: He's on a run of good form, and a couple of good performances could bring him back.
Ichinojo: His back problems probably mean he's a no.
Hoshoryu: Potential!

Agree on all of these.  All of them have qualifiers on them -- otherwise they'd be the Current Ozeki!

As an aside, Mitakeumi might not ever make Ozeki, but he has 2 Yusho (as many as anyone not a Yokozuna) and has spent two-thirds of his career in Sanyaku.  He also seems to be liked by fellow-sekitori and the public.  Mitakeumi may be looked back on as a guy who wasted his potential, but I think he will be remembered fondly.  A breakthrough to Ozeki, of course, would nail down his legacy.

[Sue 520]

Next Ozeki Shonanzakura? Alas, too late.

[Tigerboy1966 1,475]

1 hour ago, Sue said:

Mitakeumi: Is "Next Ozeki Mitakeumi" the next "Next Ozeki Shodai" joke? Shodai eventually made it.
Takayasu: He's on a run of good form, and a couple of good performances could bring him back.
Ichinojo: His back problems probably mean he's a no.
Hoshoryu: Potential!

Shodai needed 3 basho to get from first sekiwake promotion to ozeki promotion: Mitakeumi is on 26 (?) and counting.

I was rooting for Takayasu all the way to his first ozeki promotion but these days I find him annoying although he seems like a lovely bloke. A lot of his wins in his recent resurgence have been... how can I put it... a bit iffy-looking to my inexpert eye.

I would just love it if Ichinojo got there, at his very best he's the #3 active wrestler, but I fear that his time may have come and gone. He's also the man who got me back into sumo but that's a long story...

[Sue 520]

47 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

I would just love it if Ichinojo got there, at his very best he's the #3 active wrestler, but I fear that his time may have come and gone. He's also the man who got me back into sumo but that's a long story...

Ichinojo A is an unstoppable best. Ichinojo B passively gets pushed out. It's all about how much his back is acting up.

[ScreechingOwl 343]

Takayasu was a good ozeki and unfortunate to have lost his position due to injury. He appears to now have regained much of power, but even so he has never had more than 10 wins in a basho since Kyushu 2018, almost three years, including some basho against depleted upper competition. Moreover he's 31 now and even 33 wins over three consecutive basho may not be enough for promotion for him at this stage. (Let's not forget that Miyabiyama was denied a re-promotion to ozeki even after registering 34 wins over three basho.) The second time around things are often much tougher.

With Ichinojo, despite looking very good last basho he still only managed 10 wins. In fact,  in the 4 1/2 years since Hatsu 2017 Ichinojo has only managed more than 10 wins only once. And in addition, of course, he has a bad back which frequently limits his mobility and performance. It's very difficult (at least for me) to see how he's going to manage at least 33 wins over three consecutive basho.

Meisei, Takanosho, and Wakatakakage are all 26. I'm not sure if any of them will get to ozeki: Meisei have never won more that 10 victories at any level; maybe he'll develop ozeki-level ability, but I don't see it. I guess I like Wakatakakage's chances best of all of this group, but I wouldn't bet on any of them.

Mitakeumi has the ability but thus far lacks the consistency. We'll see if that changes. Hoshoryu is young enough and talented enough that if he can put it together he might be able to get to ozeki like Ama did, but it will take some time and a lot of heart. 

I'm most interested in seeing how two rikishi who won't be wrestling this basho look: Hokuseiho and Oshouma. Maybe one of them will be the next ozeki. Or perhaps it will be Asanoyama....

[Reonito 1,531]

6 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Shodai needed 3 basho to get from first sekiwake promotion to ozeki promotion: Mitakeumi is on 26 (?) and counting.

Not exactly; Shodai made his first Sekiwake appearance at Hatsu 2017.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

50 minutes ago, ScreechingOwl said:

Meisei, Takanosho, and Wakatakakage are all 26. I'm not sure if any of them will get to ozeki: Meisei have never won more that 10 victories at any level; maybe he'll develop ozeki-level ability, but I don't see it. I guess I like Wakatakakage's chances best of all of this group, but I wouldn't bet on any of them.

To be fair to this lot, they have only just made their first round of sanyaku appearances and still have plenty of time, relatively speaking. Takanosho did relatively well for a shin-sekiwake and held the rank for 3 basho, which isn't terrible. Meisei is yet to be properly tested at this level and arguably lucked into an early sekiwake appearance, whereas Wakatakakage had a pretty bad shin-komusubi basho but should have at least a psychologically easier torikumi this time.

I agree they're not going to be barnstormer ozeki, but I'd say this group has fairly decent chances at eventually making it in a year or two, even if as a late-career pinnacle kind of thing. Now of course if you're talking about next-ozeki-then-yokozuna, then yes, Hoshoryu is probably the only candidate in makuuchi right now.

[Katooshu 3,335]

None of those 3 will make ozeki in my opinion, just as the vast majority of rikishi who reach sanyaku (let alone those who achieve it at about 26) won't.

Hoshoryu I rate higher though, and while I'm not on the sure thing yokozuna bandwagon I think he shows potential beyond the typical 'he made sanyaku so he's the next ozeki' prospects.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Katooshu

[Yamanashi 3,909]

Remember, there have been 30 rikishi with HD 1960 or later to reach Ozeki, and ~70 who have reached Sekiwake but never made Ozeki.  So, only about 30% of Sekiwake really are the Next Ozeki.

 

 

[Tigerboy1966 1,475]

3 hours ago, Reonito said:

10 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Shodai needed 3 basho to get from first sekiwake promotion to ozeki promotion: Mitakeumi is on 26 (?) and counting.

Not exactly; Shodai made his first Sekiwake appearance at Hatsu 2017.

Thanks for the correction, I missed that. Attempt #2...

Shodai had 4 basho at sekiwake before his ozeki promotion: Mitakeumi has had 16 and counting.

[Seiyashi 4,108]

19 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Mitakeumi has had 16 and counting.

Not to mention at least 3 would-be ozeki runs IIRC. And they weren't even formal runs (i.e. those where the NSK said hit X in this basho and we'll promote you), they were super-outside chances that turned up only because he happened to have a flamingly good basho and just enough wins in the past basho to make it mathematically possible to hit 33 in the third basho - which of course never happened.

[Kintamayama 45,552]

Takayasu no longer has ex-Kisenosato to train with as the latter has branched out on his own. "I did the fundamentals. Since the joint Kyokai sessions, I have been properly doing the fundamentals and sweating profusely and lending my chest to the lower rankers. I've been doing all sorts of stuff and working hard," he said. That being said, he has put himself in disadvantageous positions against the lower rankers and trying out ways to get out of them.  "I've been training in all sorts of ways and my body is in great shape and the quality of my sumo is good as well. I'm in good shape. At this point I'm working hard and gambarizing, " he reiterated. After Ichinojou was found positive, Takayasu was confined to his house for a few days and had to improvise some training at home. "I did some abdominal muscle and back muscle training so my body did not weaken," he added. He injured his back before last basho, joining the basho on day three and getting a makekoshi, after training aggressively against ex- Kisenosato. "I was ready 140% at the time. Looking back, I may have overdone it and injured my back like a rookie," he reminisced. "This time, I feel I have properly been listening to my body and taking things slower. I want to go through the 15 days without pain and it's best to be in the best condition (he said that in English..). I want to remain in the yusho race till senshuraku. and add excitement to the basho. We are living in difficult times and as a rikishi I would like to show some spirited and positive sumo," he summed.

Edited September 8, 2021 by Kintamayama

[Katooshu 3,335]

7 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Remember, there have been 30 rikishi with HD 1960 or later to reach Ozeki, and ~70 who have reached Sekiwake but never made Ozeki.  So, only about 30% of Sekiwake really are the Next Ozeki.

 

 

Related to that, a very informative post about age of sanyaku debut and future ozekihood. While the overall rate may be around 30 percent, it's only 13.8 percent for rikishi who made their sanyaku debut at 25 (like Meisei and Wakatakakage; and Takanosho turned 25 the same month he debuted as sekiwake). Two of the successful 25 year olds are Shodai and Asanoyama, who are collegiate rikishi and due to their late start were hard pressed to make sanyaku any earlier than they did.

Also interesting: everyone who reached sanyaku as a teenager became yokozuna, and 12/14 who reached it at 20 became ozeki (6 of them later became yoks).

 

Edited September 8, 2021 by Katooshu

[nelimw 80]

18 hours ago, ScreechingOwl said:

 (Let's not forget that Miyabiyama was denied a re-promotion to ozeki even after registering 34 wins over three basho.) The second time around things are often much tougher.

However, Miyabiyama had 5 ozeki ahead of him on the banzuke on his 34 win streak. It could look A LOT different for Takayasu should he get 33 wins. But you are right, it is hard seeing Takayasu getting 33 over 3 basho right now. 

[Gurowake 4,109]

On 08/09/2021 at 03:55, Katooshu said:

While the overall rate may be around 30 percent, it's only 13.8 percent for rikishi who made their sanyaku debut at 25 (like Meisei and Wakatakakage; and Takanosho turned 25 the same month he debuted as sekiwake). Two of the successful 25 year olds are Shodai and Asanoyama, who are collegiate rikishi and due to their late start were hard pressed to make sanyaku any earlier than they did.

Yup, this is basically what I've seen as well as I've tracked people who are prospective talents based on age.  Reaching the joi (if not sanyaku) by the time you would have graduated from college, or graduating from college and then having little problem making it to Makuuchi, is generally what you see of those who have the talent to eventually make Ozeki.  I suppose of those being talked about, Wakatakakage might fit into that mold, though he was a bit slower climbing the Ozumo ranks when compared to Shodai, who barely scraped an Ozeki run together, and much slower than Mitakeumi who hasn't even made it.  Meisei and Takanosho, if they had been talented enough, had plenty of time in Ozumo to get to the top of the ranks at a younger age; they still might improve somewhat, but given their relative lack of big scores so far, they're probably just going to stick around as perennial joi members for several years.  It remains to be seen whether they can win 10 matches in the joi even once, not to mention multiple times in short succession.

If there's anyone that we should be talking about that's not being mentioned, it's Onosho, although clearly he's not currently living up to his potential that we saw several years ago when he stacked a bunch of 10-5s from his Makuuchi debut at a young age.