Will Kaio become Yokozuna?

[MongolPower 0]

Kaio has a good chance to become next yokozuna.

[Sasanishiki 57]

I put him at 60% chance. He obviously is well placed if he has a strong basho, and he seems relatively fit (or at least as fit as he gets). There are some interesting factors to consider for his performance in Kyushu.

*Pressure - at his age and with his history of injuries, this could be Kaio's last chance at yokozuna. This might inspire him, or could just be too daunting and too muc pressure

*Hometown dis/advantage - the Kyushu basho is his home basho and there will be a lot of support for him (and for Chiyotaikiai). This could be healthy in terms of numbers cheering, kensho, warm weather and the like. However, the assoicated responsibilities of looking after koenkai and other connections, as well as the weight of expectation from most of the locals everyday could be overwhelming.

*An Asashoryu with hurt pride - While Asa will only face Kaio once, it is likely it will be when everything is on the line. If he is close to Asa or they are leading then this is probably good for Kaio as he needs jun-yusho with good numbers. If however, Asa is off the pace but Kaio needs the win for the yusho or to get into a kettei-sen it will be tough. As Asa himself said, he will be an insurmountable wall. Can Kaio find a way over or around it?

*An overall disappointing ozeki performance in Aki - Kaio was clearly the pick of the ozeki. Will he get to meet similarly weak Ozeki in Kyushu, or will they have rebounded with a point to prove. Chiyotaikai will obviously have hometown support, and who knows about the fate of Musouyama and Tochiazuma. If they are weak or absent then Kaio may benefit, not only in his matches but in the results other, lower rikishi get and this may alter some of the bouts Kaio has in the second week of Kyushu. If the ozeki are strong in Kyushu then Kaio will have a tough final quarter of the tournament.

*Injuries - this is the never-ending question with Kaio. Will he be healthy? I think this has been the impediment to his previous shots at yokozuna, and it is really a waiting game to see how he gets through the jungyo and pre-basho training. If he goes too hard then he may be in trouble. But, he can't be wrapped in cotton wool either, because he will not be ready for the challenge otherwise.

Overall, he has a few things in his favour, but he will need to be effective and on his game in the first week to make sure he is really ready for the second week when the real challenge will come.

[Jakusotsu 6,392]

I put him at 60% chance.

60%-votes are still zero...

Good summary though! ;-)

I went with the most obvious option: maybe

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

Your summary is fine indeed. But how in hell do you arrive at 60% percent with this summary? This number looks more like wishful thinking.

I say, everything considered, his chance for Yokozuna promotion basically hinges on achieving a yusho. As a consummate statistician I also like very much just to forget this basho, and look at Kaio's overall performance. He now has four yusho in 25 basho as Ozeki. Let's scrap the five unfinished basho (despite the next basho could be unfinished as well, of course), and we arrive at a 20% yusho chance for him. So I voted 20%.

I could justify a higher percentage only if I'd really see a 'new and improved' version of Kaio, but sorry, I absolutely am seeing the same Kaio here who just happened to win a yusho. Sometimes the very best of Ozeki luck out and win two yusho in a row becoming Yokozuna, which is what happened to Wakanohana and what could happen to Kaio. Just look at my historical rating comparation and you'll see that Kaio probably is the second best Ozeki since 1973 behind Konishiki (before Aki, I'd say now he is the best ahead of Konishiki), but still closely behind Onokuni who isn't considered as a 'good' Yokozuna.

Somehow I have the feeling Kaio also wouldn't be considered as a 'good' Yokozuna if he makes it. Still, better be a mediocre Yokozuna than a top-notch Ozeki, so I'd be happy with him if he makes the step.

[Zuikakuyama 1]

It really doesn't matter a whole lot how Asashoryu does. The most he can do is to give Kaio a loss, and a 14-1 jun-yusho (and maybe even a 13-2 jun yusho) is enough for Kaio to get promoted.

So it really does depend on him and on whether he can beat guys he has trouble with like Wakanosato, Tochinonada and Dejima.

[Kashunowaka 300]

I say, everything considered, his chance for Yokozuna promotion basically hinges on achieving a yusho. As a consummate statistician I also like very much just to forget this basho, and look at Kaio's overall performance. He now has four yusho in 25 basho as Ozeki. Let's scrap the five unfinished basho (despite the next basho could be unfinished as well, of course), and we arrive at a 20% yusho chance for him. So I voted 20%.

I reasoned almost exactly the same way as Doitsuyama (without first reading his post) and reached the same number, 20%. An alternate approach is to estimate the chance that Kaio gets 13 wins or more, but that has also happened four times in his ozeki career, so there we are.

I am convinced that 13 wins will be enough, yusho or no yusho. A 12 win yusho will also cut it, but 12-3 yusho are unusual. On Kaio's plus account is the fact that he has reached 13 wins twice this year. With that in mind I am willing to go as far as a 25% chance. ;-)

[aderechelsea 125]

i believe he will need a yusho or a 14-1 jun-yusho to get the promotion.

none of these look easy if you ask me.

i give him 10% but in case Asa is injured untill the basho he is a clear favourite....

[Fujisan 535]

Would I like to see Kaio become Yokozuna? :-D :-) B-)

Do I think he will become Yokozuna? :-D :-P :-)

Who knows though,its been an unusual year. ;-)

[Sasanishiki 57]

Let me clarify. With the factors I have outlined, and each being the best case scenario for Kaio, I give him 60% chance of winning.

That is: if he is inspired by the home crowd and the chance for yusho rather than being daunted; if he is injury free; if he has only to face Asa on the last day to decide yusho or jun-yusho, not to catch up and try for an appearance in kettei-sen; if the ozeki are suitably poor or absent as in Aki.

ANyh of these factors working against Kaio will reduce his odds, the biggest one being injury, the next probably being the performance of ozeki, next his performance and position against Asa, and finally the pressure of home.

I'm not a statistician nor an odds maker. I just thought that his chances given these factors and his form in the Aki basho compared to others gives him a slightly better than even chance of yusho or jun-yusho.

[amgaa99 0]

maybe is best answer of this poll.

[hoshidango 0]

Fair chance. If not next basho, he should win 1-2 tournaments at least before retire I feel. So before he hits like 35yrs old, chances remain.

[Mark Buckton 1]

Could I? Could Nishinoshima? Would back both of us before backing Kaio. B-)