Guess Kisenosato's Aite (M1W Endo) March 2019

[Jejima 1,415]

A big round of applause to Jakusotsu for keeping this game afloat! 

Also, congratulations to Jakusotsu for the amazing 13-2 yusho - that has eradicated all memory of the MK from January.  He is a credit to his rank.

Final banzuke for March 2019

Gurowake (Y1E 11-4) Y1 Sakura (Y1W 12-3 )
Kuroimori (YOE 10-5) YO Jakusotsu (YOW 13-2 ) 
Ryoshishokunin (S1E 10-2-3)   S1 Tenshinhan (S1W 11-3-1)   
Jejima (K1E 10-5) K1 chishafuwaku (K1W 11-4)
Umizoi (M1E 8-4-3) M1 orandashoho (M1W 8-5-2)
shimodahito (M2E 6-7-2) M2 Andonishiki (M2W Intai)
Profomisakari (M3E 10-5) M3 WAKATAKE (M3W 9-5-1)
The Kyokai (M4E 2-13) M4 TillerTheChiller (M4W Kosho)

Mae-zumo
Jaakunakunshu (mz 10-5)

KK line: 10-5
OQ line: 13-2

Yusho: Jakusotsu (YOW 13-2)
Jun-Yusho:  Sakura (Y1W 12-3)

Shukunsho:  Jakusotsu
Kantosho:  Gurowake, Sakura, kuroimori, Jakusotsu, Tenshinhan
Ginosho:  Jakusotsu, chishafuwaku

[Jejima 1,415]

New banzuke for May 2019

Jakusotsu (YOW 13-2) Y1 Sakura (Y1W 12-3)
Gurowake (Y1E 11-4) YO Kuroimori (YOE 10-5) 
Tenshinhan (S1W 11-3-1)  S1 Ryoshishokunin (S1E 10-2-3)   
chishafuwaku (K1W 11-4) K1 Jejima (K1E 10-5)
Profomisakari (M3E 10-5) M1 Umizoi (M1E 8-4-3)
orandashoho (M1W 8-5-2)  M2 WAKATAKE (M3W 9-5-1)
shimodahito (M2E 6-7-2) M3 The Kyokai (M4E 2-13)
TillerTheChiller (M4W Kosho) M4 Jaakunakunshu (mz 10-5)

Intai
Andonishiki (M2W Intai)

Comments:
Jakusotsu clearly took the criticism for his previous MK to heart, and had a very fine basho. It is hoped that he continues to shine for the remainder of 2019.
Sakura once again did not disappoint. Although she was slightly short of Ozeki Quality sumo, she had a fine Jun-Yusho.
Kuroimori's 10-5 record is a little misleading, as it was the lowest score possible for a KK.  It is hoped that he performs to a higher level in May.

Edited April 25, 2019 by Jejima

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

For several days I've been pondering if we should make this game a bit more true to its former spirit again. Instead of voting who we're guessing each basho, why not choose another permanent "Kisenosato"? Either Endo or Shodai or another solid joi-elevator might fit that role perfectly.

Besides, I'd love to have some more variety once in a while instead of always recreating the sanyaku-joi schedule.

[Sakura 1,495]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

For several days I've been pondering if we should make this game a bit more true to its former spirit again. Instead of voting who we're guessing each basho, why not choose another permanent "Kisenosato"? Either Endo or Shodai or another solid joi-elevator might fit that role perfectly.

Besides, I'd love to have some more variety once in a while instead of always recreating the sanyaku-joi schedule.

Obviously I was not around for that time, but was Kisenosato chosen because he was a consistent Sanyaku-joi rikishi, but not so stable in position? Ichinojo might fit that bill. Though, whatever you choose I hope it remains to be called Guess Kisenosato's Aite.

[Rocks 1,809]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

For several days I've been pondering if we should make this game a bit more true to its former spirit again. Instead of voting who we're guessing each basho, why not choose another permanent "Kisenosato"? Either Endo or Shodai or another solid joi-elevator might fit that role perfectly.

Besides, I'd love to have some more variety once in a while instead of always recreating the sanyaku-joi schedule.

While not being an actual player here, and not that I am saying I will play in May, but I have to say one of the reasons I don't play this is because I would need to learn and pay attention to something I have very little interest in, that being the sanyaku-joi schedule. There's enough to pay attention to without having to do something which will benefit me virtually nowhere else.  I play JWS exactly because it makes me pay attention to Juryo each day which helps me with Toto and Juryo Game.  Add the bandwagon effect which results from having this schedule dictate most of the picks and this game has little interest for me. Just my 2 cents, take 'em for what they are worth. 

 

[Asashosakari 19,667]

2 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

For several days I've been pondering if we should make this game a bit more true to its former spirit again. Instead of voting who we're guessing each basho, why not choose another permanent "Kisenosato"? Either Endo or Shodai or another solid joi-elevator might fit that role perfectly.

Besides, I'd love to have some more variety once in a while instead of always recreating the sanyaku-joi schedule.

An alternative idea - how about fixing the game to the 17th position on the banzuke, regardless of which rikishi holds it? That might create some variety between tournaments where that rikishi only fills in gaps in the joi schedule, tournaments where the rikishi moves fully into the joi halfway through due to withdrawals, and tournaments where he's part of the joi right from the start.

(Of course, with continued turnover in the high ranks we might get back to an era where all the high-rankers are healthy and present pretty much all the time, which would mess up that idea.)

Edited March 23, 2019 by Asashosakari

[Rocks 1,809]

17 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

An alternative idea - how about fixing the game to the 17th position on the banzuke, regardless of which rikishi holds it?

Guess Junana's Aite? 

[Jejima 1,415]

The game was originally meant to be a one-off joke (more than a decade ago!) - but it proved to be slightly more popular/interesting than expected.  During the golden era of Kintamayama being the 'pickee', his lowest rank was M4E - so never outside of the joi-jin/sanyaku.

When Kisenosato was no longer a suitable pick, due to being an Ozeki, we switched to Myogiryu for four straight bashos - it was my idea then to make him permanent....  I am not sure why we didn't!  The discussion back then was that the rikishi should be ranked in part of the torikumi where there is some predictability.  It was therefore set that the rikishi chosen should be ranked somewhere between joi-jin and Sekiwake.  It has always been within the top 16 rikishi, apart from one time when we had the 17th ranked rikishi - but with quite a few same heya rikishi pairings ranked above, meant that he was still part of the joi-jin.

The pick one-out-of three rikishis each basho was a compromise, as when I first started choosing rikishi after the Kisenosato golden era, my selection was not always to everyone's choice.

In summary, I would like to go back to having a permanent pick - if players agree.  It should be a rikishi who is usually ranked in the joi-jin / Sekiwake, but okay to drop to lower sometimes for a more 'random' basho.

If we agree to this, then which rikishi?

Jakusotsu suggests Endo or Shodai.

I would like to add Myogiryu (he was the original replacement!) and Ichinojo to the discussion.

[chishafuwaku 476]

22 minutes ago, Jejima said:

we switched to Myogiryu for four straight bashos - it was my idea then to make him permanent....  I am not sure why we didn't! 

Myogiryu 32y (A little late for you I'm afraid)

 

24 minutes ago, Jejima said:

 It should be a rikishi who is usually ranked in the joi-jin / Sekiwake, but okay to drop to lower sometimes for a more 'random' basho.

Jakusotsu suggests Endo or Shodai.

Endo 28y (We will "random" happen frequently)

 

Shodai 27y (http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=12130)

Since coming to Makuchi in 2016 has been in the ideal conditions for the game (albeit rarely in Sanyaku), but frankly I'm a bit tired of looking for someone who seemed to have good potential and became an apathetic.

 

Hokutofuji 26y (It seems to me also possible, but my fear is the injuries  - at least this gives everything)

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

4 hours ago, Jejima said:

The game was originally meant to be a one-off joke (more than a decade ago!) - but it proved to be slightly more popular/interesting than expected.  During the golden era of Kintamayama being the 'pickee', his lowest rank was M4E - so never outside of the joi-jin/sanyaku.

Yeah, right.

Hokutofuji came to my mind, too. Fine choice!

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

Here's a list of all current Sekiwake/Komusubi/Maegashira who have at least ten times met a Yokozuna so far:

Rikishi          Y-Bouts       Age
Kotoshogiku        120          35
Tochiozan           82          32
Aoiyama             49          32
Yoshikaze           49          37
Okinoumi            44          33
Ichinojo            41          25
Myogiryu            41          32
Tamawashi           40          34
Shohozan            39          35
Kaisei              37          32
Mitakeumi           33          26
Shodai              30          27
Takarafuji          30          32
Endo                29          28
Chiyotairyu         24          30
Hokutofuji          14          26

I've highlighted all younger than 30y. My vote would be 1. Endo 2. Shodai 3. Hokutofuji.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Wasn't it little more than a happy accident of history that the game ended up working out so well (and for so long) with the choice of Kisenosato? That was okay for what it was, but I don't feel that random luck is a good basis for game design decisions. If this same discussion had been held three years ago, the most sensible choice of rikishi might have been...Tochiozan? Aoiyama? Takarafuji? Take a look how  much mileage you'd have gotten out of those choices. Two years tops on Tochiozan, even less on the others.

If there's really a desire to stick with one rikishi, maybe playing the game in "seasons" (one year in duration?) would be the way to go. Some continuity but also a pre-determined rule for regular turnover if needed. If some choice ends up duplicating Kisenosato's longevity, he could still be re-elected for another season.

Edited March 25, 2019 by Asashosakari

[Jakusotsu 6,049]

All valid points by Asashosakari.

I tried a different idea which might yield the desired variance while still remaing in a relevant region of the banzuke: take the Mageashira with the best record (highest ranked in case of a tie) for the next basho.

Starting with Hatsu Basho 2018, we would have had to guess these guys:
S1w Tamawashi
S1w Tochinoshin
M1w Kaisei
M2w Chiyonokuni
M2e Yutakayama
M4w Yoshikaze
M4w Okinoumi
M1e    Kaisei

Hmm, it's essentially the same as what we've done anyway.  So let's try using the second best record:

M1w Ichinojo
K1e Ichinojo
M5w Ikioi
M3w Takakeisho
M5w Asanoyama
M3e Nishikigi
M3w Shohozan
K1w Hokutofuji

Looks a bit better. Still not elegant enough. Back to the think tank...

[Ryoshishokunin 323]

The idea of following one rikishi appeals to me---I like Asashosakari's year-by-year proposal.  We can start with the beginning of the new era shortly :)

I feel like shodai is too bad and I'm worried that ichinojo is `too good' at the present, but would be happy either way.  If we have to try non-joi schedules sometimes then the scores get worse, but I'd be surprised if the best players don't win anyway. 

[Gurowake 4,108]

The fact that I picked for Tamawashi instead of Endo originally on Day 15 made me think what it would be like if we always moved the next pick to whoever was the aite the previous day.  We could do the same rikishi for Days 1 and 2 and only Day 2's aite would become the new target, or we could get really complicated and pick for Day 2 not knowing for sure who it is we're picking for by having it be determined by Day 1.  The only problem with this is if someone outside the top 17 or so is chosen as an aite, so we could limit the shifts to when it will stay inside that range, and that might be at discretion of the gyoji based on kyujo rikishi.  As to who to start with, if the last aite the previous basho qualifies, then him, if not, back up to previous aite until we find someone who does.

I agree with Asashosakari that having Kisenosato being a reasonable choice for so long was a fluke; however, I think Mitakeumi has shown that he's going to stay in the joi and at the same time isn't brushing with Ozeki promotion.  That'll obviously change (Which direction? Who knows?) after we make him permanent because of course it would, but I think it's the best choice if we had to pick someone. 

The "17th ranked rikishi" option is a bit rough because as noted by me previously elsewhere there's a real dearth of future same-stable matchups if you look past the current aging Kasugano trio (will Tochiozan even be in the joi again after such a terrible performance where he barely faced any sanyaku?) and Goeido-Myogiryu.  There are a lot of stables with multiple sekitori, but very few that look to have a sanyaku member and another joi member regularly.  Maybe Endo-Daieisho will continue to be relevant but if they aren't in sanyaku it really doesn't matter.  The 16th is probably a more reasonable choice until we get multiple sanyaku that will always need to go down to the 17th or lower.

[Gurowake 4,108]

On 25/03/2019 at 06:51, Ryoshishokunin said:

If we have to try non-joi schedules sometimes then the scores get worse, but I'd be surprised if the best players don't win anyway. 

It actually wouldn't be that bad for the first week given what they do now, though their very rigid method of making matches week 1 wasn't always like it is now.  If you don't have to pick for someone too low-ranked, the rigid rules might apply until Day 11 or later.  Random picking for the last few days really isn't all that much different than it is now, except there's even less to guide you.  The problem may be the rules are too rigid, as the choice of sanyaku matches is slightly fluid and makes it a bit of a guess what exactly they're going to do.  Unfortunately, a lot of the time exactly what they do is totally irrelevant, but the way to make it more likely to be relevant is to be picking for someone as far down on the banzuke in the joi as possible, like 16th, or 17th when that's reasonable.