Baseball gambling aftermath - New reform committee

[Otokonoyama 2,735]

Takanobu Nakajima is a Keio University professor specializing in positive analysis of economics. He is a member of the independent committee to enhance governance in the Japan Sumo Association. His published works include "Ozumo no Keizaigaku" (Economics of grand sumo). He weighs in on the changes he'd like to see in this Asahi.com op/ed piece.

I am of the opinion that the sumo community will change considerably if each stable comes under the association's direct management...

Another thing on my mind is sumo's status as an entertainment business...

Another pet peeve of mine is fans in ringside seats holding up their mobile phones and flashing the victory sign at TV cameras...

[Asashosakari 20,297]

(I feel myself getting too angry just steaming about the yaocho mess in the other thread without thinking about how to treat the problem, so here goes...)

Since we're probably all agreed that the situation will remain terminally screwed up as long as juryo rikishi earn more than 10 times as much as makushita: How about instituting a third "short" division to bridge the gap? Right now maegashira earn about 1.3 million yen per month, juryo a little over 1.0 million yen, and makushita merely 150,000 yen every other month (i.e. per basho). Cut makuuchi back to 34 rikishi as it was in the 1970s (heck, if the Kyokai keeps up its path of financial self-destruction they'll have to do it soon anyway), drop juryo to 900,000 yen or so, then break off the top 15 ranks of makushita as its own division and give it a salary of perhaps 500,000 yen. Pays for itself with the makuuchi reduction while increasing the number of "salaried" positions to some 90. And you can even bump up the other 90 guys in makushita to 200,000 yen per basho without breaking the bank, to end up with a reasonably nice salary curve (0.1/0.5/0.9/1.3) where a guy getting demoted by one division doesn't immediately fall off the financial cliff.

Granted, perhaps that might still feel like a pretty steep drop from the new third division to the "rest of makushita", but I'm hopeful that when a guy gets newly promoted to that third division, having a "starting salary" of only about half the current juryo salary will cause somewhat less of an incentive to cheat your way into staying there, especially if the intangible status stuff of being a third-division rikishi remains markedly less than being a juryo rikishi is today. (Let's say, no heya chores, but also no kesho, no special dohyo-iri and no tsukebito...others of you will have much better ideas how to go about that, I'm sure.) And the details can be quibbled over...maybe bump up the makushita remainder further to 150,000 yen and limit the third division to 400,000, whatever it takes to get a salary curve that doesn't feel like it perpetuates the "bottom of juryo = heaven, top of makushita = hell" impression that (yes, I realize it) the sumo world so perversely prides itself for.

Edited February 2, 2011 by Asashosakari

[shumitto 419]

(I feel myself getting too angry just steaming about the yaocho mess in the other thread without thinking about how to treat the problem, so here goes...)

It's a dream come true arriving in Juryo but it's also very unstable out there. One really awful (like a 2-13) Basho from whatever rank drops you one division and even without that terrible basho a rikishi without lower makuuchi talent will eventually return to makushita one day and it's rather soon.

The idea of adding a third division or sub-division to make Juryo a more stable block is one which I have already thought before and appreciate it, although I fail to see it addressing the problem. There are likely some other rikishi doing the same yaocho in lower makuuchi (prolly less conspicuously) to keep their status simply because people are conservative about what they have achieved and don't like the idea of losing it.

There are plenty of examples of rich and successful athletes going on with their careers just for the joy of it ( and I do happen to know how some curtail oppositon to make it easier).

Obviously the Juryo rikishi we have talking about here are not the most affluent nor victorious of the "athletes", but their misdemeanors are not pushed by financial reasons exclusively and not only status. Their are working to keep their belonging to something and this new third division however better it can be, might be not good enough to put a halt to this greed (for the lack of a better word).

The idea is good though.

Edited February 2, 2011 by shumitto

[Asameshimae 220]

Forgive me, I want to stay positive. For example; I have thought for years that if honbasho ended a few hours later they could get a lot more fans into the venues. And the education issues that ilovesumo continues to bring up are issues that definitely should be addressed. All this thinktank stuff is laudable, but I see next to none of it being implemented, at least not before things get a lot worse. Even when people with pull in the sumo world start talking about wider reforms, very little happens. I would love to be proven wrong.

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Obviously the Juryo rikishi we have talking about here are not the most affluent nor victorious of the "athletes", but their misdemeanors are not pushed by financial reasons exclusively and not only status.

I agree, but I do think the balance has shifted. IMO the (mostly intentional) heaven/hell distinction has simply become outmoded over time*, a process that started all the way back in 1957 when real sekitori salaries were introduced. Prior to that, the toriteki/sekitori difference in status was (in my impression at least) the major driver, but as Ozumo has become more professionalized and more of an athletic career choice, the monetary component has taken over to a significant degree. Just check out how many 1950-1960s short-time (and sometimes not so short-time) sekitori retired right away after dropping back to makushita even if they were only 25 or 26 years old, while today practically everyone in that situation will keep trucking on - for several years if needed - attempting to regain their spot in juryo. I doubt they'd go through that if being a sekitori didn't pay $10,000+ per month.

* Much like the original simple "inside the curtain/outside (below) the curtain" distinction was deemed outmoded around 1888 when the juryo division was created out of high makushita, albeit for different reasons (AFAIK).

Edit: Of course, one extremely quick fix would be to make the salaries much more dependent on rank, e.g. J1 paying 40,000 yen more than J2 which is paying 40,000 yen more than J3, etc., with a much smaller gap between J14 and Ms1, of course with correspondingly staggered payments even in the toriteki divisions, so that the "status" differences (tsukebito and so on) are no longer overshadowed by the money and can take on a larger meaning of their own again. But I suspect that idea is even less likely to be implemented than a third salaried division.

Edited February 3, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Peterao 3]

A far more simple and effective solution would be to eliminate salaries for all but the yokozuna, and use that money to increase the prizes for wins and yusho. Everyone gets room and board, but beyond that, make them earn their money on the dohyo, and make yaocho too expensive for anyone to indulge in.

[Asashosakari 20,297]

A far more simple and effective solution would be to eliminate salaries for all but the yokozuna, and use that money to increase the prizes for wins and yusho. Everyone gets room and board, but beyond that, make them earn their money on the dohyo, and make yaocho too expensive for anyone to indulge in.

Well, that would certainly save money as you could probably eliminate all divisions below juryo along with it for lack of rikishi... K-1 business model, I guess.

[Peterao 3]

A far more simple and effective solution would be to eliminate salaries for all but the yokozuna, and use that money to increase the prizes for wins and yusho. Everyone gets room and board, but beyond that, make them earn their money on the dohyo, and make yaocho too expensive for anyone to indulge in.

Well, that would certainly save money as you could probably eliminate all divisions below juryo along with it for lack of rikishi... K-1 business model, I guess.

If anything, I think that plan would increase the number of prospective rikishi. More money would go into the hands of Makushita and below, and the talented recruits would see immediate monetary advantages even before the two or three years it takes to advance to Juryo.

[Asashosakari 20,297]

If anything, I think that plan would increase the number of prospective rikishi. More money would go into the hands of Makushita and below, and the talented recruits would see immediate monetary advantages even before the two or three years it takes to advance to Juryo.

Distributing the entire makuuchi and juryo salaries across all 700 rikishi equally results in about 120,000 yen per month and rikishi. I'm assuming you'd still want the higher-level divisions to receive significantly larger prizes than the lower ones, so the additional amount of money available for the glut of rikishi below juryo would be significantly less than that, perhaps 50,000 yen per rikishi if you're lucky. Factor in the diversion of money from less successful to more successful rikishi even in the lower divisions, and the average sandanme dweller probably ends up earning no better than currently, possibly even less. Anyone not on a path to big success would stick around no longer than they do now, so while it might increase the number of prospective rikishi, I doubt it'll increase the number of active rikishi. In other words, a K-1 style model, where tons of guys have short trials and if they aren't immediately any good they're discarded/decide to do something else.

Edit: And I'm just dying to see the festival of henka and slapdowns that will ensue once a rikishi's entire livelihood depends on winning his bouts. Thrilling!

Edited February 3, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Peterao 3]

In other words, a K-1 style model, where tons of guys have short trials and if they aren't immediately any good they're discarded/decide to do something else.

Isn't that what should be happening already? What good is it for anybody to have a rikishi bouncing between Jonidan and Jonokuchi for years with no future to look forward to?

I think that the sheer quantity of guys willing to take their shot in a more merit based system would be enough to cover for the increased percentage of people leaving within a year.

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Isn't that what should be happening already? What good is it for anybody to have a rikishi bouncing between Jonidan and Jonokuchi for years with no future to look forward to?

It's not just the no-hope Moriurara types, I'm also talking about rikishi who are joining at 15 or 18 years of age and - even when talented - might need several years just to get up to makushita-quality level. Much like in professional baseball, you simply can't revamp the "minor leagues" to a major degree because some place is needed to provide for your prospects' professional advancement. (Incidentally, providing a steady stream of opposition to the more talented guys is a major and generally overlooked role filled by all those going-nowhere guys in the lower divisions.) If you do decide to scrap major parts of the lower divisions, you need some other place to create the talent for you, which would likely have to be the universities, much like in American football and basketball in the US.

And of course that would mean the overwhelming majority of new sumotori would end up being 21+ years old on joining, as only the very biggest talents could afford to join earlier than that. Again that gets us pretty close to K-1 which generally relies on its athletes gaining their basic proficiencies elsewhere and doesn't do much if any talent development of its own. Maybe that's what's needed nowadays, but it sure won't be anything like current Ozumo. One of the first things that likely would have to fall is the "cannot rejoin at a later date" restriction, and the existence of permanent heya would probably be the next, just by necessity. And I'm not sure the universities would be as willing to play ball and subsidize Ozumo's talent pipeline as their American counterparts are (who make big bucks off the backs of their "amateur student athletes").

I think that the sheer quantity of guys willing to take their shot in a more merit based system would be enough to cover for the increased percentage of people leaving within a year.

As I'm saying, in that case (at least under current budget constraints) the money just isn't there to pay these guys the way you want. Knock off (at least) the jonokuchi and jonidan divisions to drop the number of active rikishi to under 400 and the money might start to be there, but then we're either a) talking about introducing a quota system so Ozumo doesn't get flooded with excessive numbers of new guys trying to get at that money and putting the financials out of whack, or b) there's no such stream of new guys in the first place, in which case your approach has failed to reach its goal.

Edited February 3, 2011 by Asashosakari

[ilovesumo 12]

Beside education, social thinking etc, I vote for:

Salary based on rank and wins - in a very easy form

You earn a fix sum for each win - the sum per win depends on the rank and the more wins, the more money you get per Basho.

No win? No salary plus falling down the Banzuke => means the possible salary for the next Basho is lower.

So loosing to your "friend" means less "salary" for you. That could work for all divisions - so even kids who leave after a few years have some real money already.

No more need for basic salaries, pocket money and whatsoever bonuses.

(I am not talking about this complicated point-system. etc. - would like the whole thing much easier - also makes it taxable.)

Plus - no more need for Sponsors handing over envelopes if kids already earn money. Sponsors should sponsor a Heya.

For many Rikishi and Oyakata, going out with sponsors is nothing but work (sure, depends on the person, there are also some very nice fellows you like to go out with) and all that forced drinking (especially during the Basho) is (excuse me) nothing but nuts.

I think if Sumo means salary from early on, the whole hardship might not be as frightening to youngsters who otherwise would be unemployed - even more of a hardship in Japan, without the big social safetynet. The idea of tatakiage (working up the way to the top) is nice, but working and working for years without making it and then giving up one day, being worse off as before joining...no wonder there are less and less shindeshi - they are much better off working in a Conbini.

Edited February 3, 2011 by ilovesumo

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Ohhh...one of the long-standing mysteries of English-language sumo fandom solved. Maybe not exactly the proper thread for it, but anyway...

It appears some voices within the sumo world are taking notice of the fact that almost invariably there's a veteran low-ranker involved in the scandals. Furuichi was 34 when he was fired last year, with only two juryo tournaments to his credit, and former bookmaker Azusayumi was 30 years at retirement and had spent most of his career in sandanme. The newest entrant is of course Enatsukasa at 31 years who also sports more sandanme appearances than anything else. Some such rikishi have proven valuable in educating new deshi, but others have been known to pull rank and mistreat them. The late Futagoyama-oyakata (Takanohana the elder) once commented: "My stable became better after I dismissed these guys."

Consequently there are calls to encourage a limit to the presence of such rikishi on the Kyokai roster - possibly through the return of a measure once enacted to cut down the number of rikishi and reduce costs. Back in 1957 a rule was put on the books to stop paying stables the training allowance for any rikishi who had failed to reach makushita within 20 basho after starting his career, forcing the stable owners to decide between taking the financial hit or "encourage" their less-than-successful deshi to seek a different path. The deadline was subsequently revised to 25 and then to 30 basho, before the rule was ultimately abolished again after 10 years, having achieved its stated goals. (Says the article anyway...to me it looks like a lot of rikishi only retired when the sekitori divisions were drastically cut after 1967.03, but perhaps both measures were related.) Anyway, following that period such policies were only put in place by individual stables, but no longer at the Kyokai level. Now some - thus far unnamed - people are calling for a revival.

Edited February 4, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Gernobono 467]

Back in 1957 a rule was put on the books to stop paying stables the training allowance for any rikishi who had failed to reach makushita within 20 basho after starting his career, forcing the stable owners to decide between taking the financial hit or "encourage" their less-than-successful deshi to seek a different path. The deadline was subsequently revised to 25 and then to 30 basho, before the rule was ultimately abolished again after 10 years, having achieved its stated goals.

that's interesting

would such a rule not open some bout-fixing in lower divsions....like "let's get him to makushita at least for one basho......."?

that would be very important for heya......

[Asashosakari 20,297]

that's interesting

would such a rule not open some bout-fixing in lower divsions....like "let's get him to makushita at least for one basho......."?

that would be very important for heya......

I'm not sure, actually. The article seems a bit vague on whether a rikishi only needed to reach makushita once, or if the non-payment of the training expenses applied also to those who dropped back below makushita after their 20 basho period. I went with the version that makes more sense to me (and I agree, that seems to open up some room for bout-fixing), but perhaps I'm misinterpreting it. Anyway, my optimistic view: Anybody who is close enough to makushita-quality at the deadline that he can be bout-fixed "across the finish line" (after all, it's going to be hard to buy records higher than 5-2) probably isn't the type of rikishi who should fall victim to such a rule anyway.

Edit: Of course a guy like Enatsukasa did reach makushita relatively early in his 30th basho, so if they are really concerned about unsuccessful rikishi hanging around too long and not simply about the financial side (the article does quote a current Kyokai member: "The training expenses for rikishi in makushita and below have become a burden."), a new version of that measure should probably be based on each rikishi's current rank, not the highest one achieved.

Edited February 4, 2011 by Asashosakari

[ilovesumo 12]

Edit: Of course a guy like Enatsukasa did reach makushita relatively early in his 30th basho, so if they are really concerned about unsuccessful rikishi hanging around too long and not simply about the financial side (the article does quote a current Kyokai member: "The training expenses for rikishi in makushita and below have become a burden."), a new version of that measure should probably be based on each rikishi's current rank, not the highest one achieved.

This rule seems to be good, but there are several problems and I guess those were the reason it couldn't be a rock-solid one. During the 90s it would have been helpful. With all those Shindeshi some Heya might have liked cleaning out the closet.

- what to do with the talentless after Intai? There are guys really seeing the Heya as their family. How to get enough Deshi? (Think of Takashima...) To join Sumo means to join a lifestyle - so this ends after 4 years?

The number of active guys / Shindeshi was shrinking from the 60s on, number of Heya rose, the 2 booms occurred but now the ground is supposed to be hit.

I have been told by a former Rikishi that his Oyakata never wanted to let him go Intai - for the money per head the Heya receives from the Kyoukai.

He was Sandanme at that time (former Makushita).

Sure, quality-Rikishi seem to be the best, but dealing economically with the money from the Kyoukai (and sponsors), wouldn't that mean the more heads the better?

We can expect the Kyoukai to lose financial power, so this won't work anymore. Very few qualiy-Shindeshi -> less Heya -> less of everything.

So kicking out the talentless you need to fill your Keikoba with? It's not said that some new face will fill in the gap...

Whatever happens, the future of Sumo will be different from what we all know.

Loosing the status won't help. You cannot sell the dead horse to a jockey.

[Doitsuyama 1,263]

Consequently there are calls to encourage a limit to the presence of such rikishi on the Kyokai roster - possibly through the return of a measure once enacted to cut down the number of rikishi and reduce costs. .... Now some - thus far unnamed - people are calling for a revival.

The timing is more than a little surprising to me, given that the number of rikishi currently is the lowest since Hatsu 1980. I did not exactly get the impression that this was a pressing issue, especially as more than a few intai seem to be immediately looming. Well, maybe the kyokai is financially more shaky than it seems.