Heisei Hopefuls - prospect watch

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Kyushu 2014, Tier 3:

Will Abiko make it to juryo after just 6 tournaments?

Heisei Hopefuls for Kyushu 2014 - Tier 3: Still Worth Watching - Age 23 and under
+/-	Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
▲ 10	Abiko	Oitekaze	1991/07/27 (47)	2014.01	Ms4	Mz 3-0	Jk12w 7-0 Y	Jd11w 7-0 Y	Sd21e 6-1	Ms42e 7-0 Y	Ms4e
● 0	Masunoumi	Chiganoura	1991/11/12 (44)	2010.01	Ms6	Ms9e 2-5	Ms21e 4-3	Ms14w 3-4	Ms21e 6-1	Ms8w 4-3	Ms6w
▼ 2	Kawabata	Oitekaze	1991/07/10 (50)	2014.03	Ms4	[/td2]	Ms15Td 5-2	Ms8w 4-3	Ms6e 4-3	Ms4e 3-4	Ms7e
▼ 1	Kawanari	Oguruma	1991/07/07 (51)	2007.03	Ms1	Ms6e 0-0-7	Ms46w 6-1	Ms20w 6-1	Ms7w 3-4	Ms12e 4-3	Ms9w
▼ 1	Chiyoshoma	Kokonoe	1991/07/20 (48)	2009.05	Ms8	Ms25e 4-3	Ms18w 5-2	Ms10e 4-3	Ms8e 3-4	Ms13e 4-3	Ms11w
● 0	Akua	Tatsunami	1990/11/06 (58)	2010.11	Ms12	Ms34w 4-3	Ms28w 2-5	Ms48e 6-1	Ms20w 4-3	Ms17w 5-2	Ms12e
▼ 2	Kotokobai	Sadogatake	1991/03/31 (54)	2006.03	Ms7	Ms33w 5-2	Ms17w 6-1	Ms7e 2-5	Ms18e 4-3	Ms15w 4-3	Ms13e
▲ 1	Matsumoto	Shikoroyama	1992/03/10 (38)	2007.03	Ms16	Ms40w 5-2	Ms25w 3-4	Ms34e 5-2	Ms23w 2-5	Ms40w 5-2	Ms25e
▼ 1	Hakunishiki	Kasugayama	1992/01/13 (39)	2007.03	Ms30	Ms50e 4-3	Ms42w 4-3	Ms35w 3-4	Ms43w 4-3	Ms36w 4-3	Ms30e
New	Takagi	Kise	1992/03/18 (37)	2014.03	Ms31		Mz 2-0	Jk5w 5-2	Jd53w 7-0 D	Sd54w 7-0 Y	Ms31w
▼ 1	Asakoki	Takasago	1990/12/19 (57)	2009.03	Ms34	Jd4e 7-0 D	Sd15e 3-4	Sd31w 4-3	Sd19w 6-1	Ms41w 4-3	Ms34w
● 0	Koba	Kise	1991/03/12 (55)	2013.03	Ms25	Ms31e 4-3	Ms25e 3-4	Ms33e 4-3	Ms25w 2-5	Ms42w 4-3	Ms36e
▼ 6	Onami	Arashio	1991/12/29 (40)	2009.11	Ms20	Ms28e 3-4	Ms37w 5-2	Ms23w 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 3-4	Ms37e
▲ 1	Tomisakae	Isegahama	1992/04/11 (34)	2008.03	Ms38	Sd25w 4-3	Sd13e 4-3	Sd3w 4-3	Ms54e 4-3	Ms46w 4-3	Ms38w
▲ 3	Tochimaru	Kasugano	1992/08/26 (31)	2011.05	Ms23	Ms23w 1-6	Ms48w 3-4	Sd3e 4-2-1	Ms53w 3-4	Sd3e 5-2	Ms43e
New	Shiba	Kise	1991/12/24 (42)	2014.03	Ms47		Mz 2-0	Jk6w 6-1	Jd27w 7-0 Y	Sd29w 6-1	Ms47w
▼ 4	Sasakiyama	Kise	1991/06/12 (53)	2010.01	Ms19	Ms22w 3-4	Ms30e 4-3	Ms26w 3-4	Ms35e 3-4	Ms43e 3-4	Ms52w
New	Kainoryu	Tomozuna	1991/09/03 (46)	2007.03	Ms55	Sd50w 5-2	Sd23e 3-4	Sd41e 5-2	Sd14e 4-3	Sd4w 4-3	Ms55e
▼ 5	Hokutowaka	Hakkaku	1992/06/20 (32)	2008.03	Ms44	Sd59w 4-3	Sd40w 5-2	Sd13w 5-2	Ms53e 4-3	Ms44e 3-4	Ms56e
● 0	Matsubayama	Kasugayama	1991/06/13 (52)	2007.03	Ms36	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1e 5-2	Ms45w 4-3	Ms36w 1-6	Sd6e 4-3	Ms56w
New	Shodai	Tokitsukaze	1991/11/05 (45)	2014.03	Ms59		Jk12w 7-0 Y	Jd10e 6-1	Sd48e 6-1	Ms59e
▲ 2	Wakayama	Onomatsu	1992/04/26 (33)	2011.07	Ms56	Sd23e 4-3	Sd10w 3-4	Sd28e 5-2	Sd4e 3-4	Sd17w 4-3	Sd5w
▼ 7	Kotofukuju	Sadogatake	1991/12/14 (43)	2007.03	Ms17	Ms58w 3-4	Sd13w 5-2	Ms54w 2-5	Sd15e 5-2	Ms56w 3-4	Sd8w
▲ 1	Yoshifuji	Isegahama	1991/12/25 (41)	2010.01	Ms52	Sd55w 4-3	Sd37e 6-1	Ms52w 3-4	Sd3w 2-5	Sd29e 4-3	Sd15w
▼ 4	Aoi	Shikoroyama	1992/04/02 (35)	2008.03	Ms49	Sd47e 3-4	Sd60w 5-2	Sd32w 6-1	Ms49w 2-5	Sd10e 3-4	Sd26e
▼ 9	Kotokensei	Sadogatake	1991/01/06 (56)	2006.03	Ms40	Sd27e 5-2	Sd4e 5-2	Ms47w 4-3	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1w 2-5	Sd27w
▼ 5	Aiyama	Kitanoumi	1992/03/23 (36)	2007.03	Ms52	Sd16w 5-2	Ms56w 3-4	Sd11w 4-3	Ms60w 3-4	Sd14e 2-5	Sd40w
▼ 5	Daijo	Takadagawa	1991/07/19 (49)	2007.03	Ms53	Sd83e 4-3	Sd63w 4-3	Sd51e 5-2	Sd27w 4-3	Sd15w 1-6	Sd53e

Akua turns 24 but has secured another two years in Tier 4, while Asakoki will probably be leaving us (barring a 6-1 this basho).

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Kyushu 2014, Tier 4:

Heisei Hopefuls for Kyushu 2014 - Tier 4: Last Chance Saloon - Ms15+ Age 25 and under
+/-	Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
▲ 1	Takatoshi	Takanohana	1990/04/19 (62)	2009.01	Ms3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 5-2	Ms15e 3-4	Ms22w 6-1	Ms9e 5-2	Ms3w
▼ 1	Ishiura	Miyagino	1990/01/10 (65)	2013.01	Ms2	Ms11w 5-2	Ms5e 4-3	Ms2w 2-5	Ms11e 5-2	Ms6w 3-4	Ms10e
▲ 1	Kairyu	Dewanoumi	1990/03/01 (63)	2005.03	Ms3	Ms26e 6-1	Ms8e 2-5	Ms19w 3-4	Ms26e 5-2	Ms18e 5-2	Ms12w
▲ 3	Nishikigi	Isenoumi	1990/08/25 (60)	2006.03	Ms3	Ms16e 4-3	Ms10w 2-5	Ms22w 4-3	Ms18w 3-4	Ms24w 5-2	Ms15w
▲ 1	Asabenkei	Takasago	1989/02/12 (73)	2007.03	Ms15	Ms35e 5-2	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 5-2	Ms15w 3-4	Ms20w 4-3	Ms17w
▲ 2	Daishoryu	Oitekaze	1989/12/29 (66)	2005.09	Ms12	Ms39e 4-3	Ms31e 5-2	Ms18w 5-2	Ms12w 2-5	Ms26w 4-3	Ms20w
▲ 3	Tochinosato	Kasugano	1989/07/07 (71)	2008.03	Ms4	Ms21w 4-3	Ms16e 3-4	Ms23e 1-6	Ms48e 5-2	Ms32e 5-2	Ms21e
▼ 3	Hokaho	Miyagino	1989/06/21 (72)	2007.03	Ms11	Ms46e 5-2	Ms29e 3-4	Ms38e 5-2	Ms26w 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms26w
▼ 6	Daishoiwa	Oitekaze	1990/10/29 (59)	2006.03	Ms11	Ms51e 3-4	Sd2e 3-4	Sd20e 7-0 D	Ms14e 4-3	Ms11e 1-6	Ms36w
▲ 1	Mankajo	Kasugayama	1990/02/10 (64)	2005.03	Ms6	Ms12e 5-2	Ms6e 2-5	Ms16w 3-4	Ms24e 3-4	Ms33e 3-4	Ms42e
▼ 2	Higoarashi	Kise	1989/08/20 (68)	2006.05	Ms2	Ms21e 7-0 Y	Ms2e 3-4	Ms5w 3-4	Ms9w 1-6	Ms30e 2-2-3	Ms49e
▲ 1	Nogami	Oguruma	1990/08/15 (61)	2009.01	Ms15	Ms27e 3-4	Ms35w 2-5	Ms55e 2-5	Sd16e 2-5	Sd42e 5-2	Sd16w
▼ 1	Byakko	Azumazeki	1989/07/11 (69)	2005.03	Ms13	Ms48w 4-3	Ms40w 2-5	Sd4w 5-2	Ms44w 3-4	Ms53w 2-5	Sd18w
▲ 1	Hamaguchi	Kise	1989/07/11 (69)	2012.05	Ms4	Sd37e 0-0-7	Sd98e 0-0-7	Jd58w 0-0-7	Jk18e 7-0 Y	Jd13e 7-0 Y	Sd22w
▼ 1	Kansei	Sakaigawa	1989/08/25 (67)	2008.03	Ms3	Ms3e 3-4	Ms6w 0-3-4	Ms41w 0-0-7	Sd21w 0-0-7	Sd81w 0-0-7	Jd42e

[Gurowake 4,088]

I think it's scary that Onosho has the potential to completely empty Tier 1. Takagenji with 4-3, Takayoshitoshi with 5-2, Fujihara maybe if lucky with 6-1, and Daishozen with 7-0 are the only ones that I see with a chance to full such a void.

As it stands now almost time for the last bouts of Takagenji and Takayoshitoshi, they both need wins to get promotion to Makushita and be by themselves in tier 1 of this list, assuming Onosho's promotion as a given.

[Andreas21 184]

Heisei Hopefuls slowly take over

Next banzuke a new level will be reached - we'll see two Sanyaku spots occupied by Heisei born rikishi.

Sekiwake Ichinojo - the way he looks and the way he behaves on the Dohyo, and by his results, it is hard to be believe how young he actually is: youngest in Makuuchi, third youngest Sekitori.

Takayasu next time Komusubi has been around quite a while, and has long been the torch bearer of the Heisei born. Coming in small steps lately, the last basho has been his best achievement so far.

Same is also true for Terunofuji who reached Kachikoshi in the Makuuchi Jo'i ranks for the first time.

Endo will be in or close to the Jo'i next banzuke. He is currently in the elevator area - in and out of Jo'i.

Chiyootori, second youngest in Makuuchi - bit hampered by injuries lately, as seen by his wrapped up body, struggles.

This is even more true for Osunaarashi, who "gambarizes" but far from 100%.

Kotoyuki and Chiyomaru just made kachikochi to stay in Makuuchi.

Takanoiwa is not comfortable in Makuuchi, and goes down again.

Injured Chiyoo goes down in Juryo.

Asahisho is comfortable in mid Juryo with a small KK.

Hidenoumi was injured part of the basho but has enough wins to stay.

Daieisho is lucky to stay in Juryo.

Long time mega-hopeful and shin-Juryo Kagayaki seemed to benefit from the magic of first time Sekitorihood and had a great result.

Not so for shin-Juryo Kotoeko and Dewahayate, the latter going down again, the former might be just lucky.

Last but not least Onosho will be the youngest Sekitori next time.

[Asashosakari 19,513]

As it stands now almost time for the last bouts of Takagenji and Takayoshitoshi, they both need wins to get promotion to Makushita and be by themselves in tier 1 of this list, assuming Onosho's promotion as a given.

Neither of them won, so it's time to clear the decks here in Tier 1:

Onosho's impressive two-year run through the lower divisions finally culminates in his sekitori debut thanks to his 5-2 Kyushu performance, his 11th straight kachikoshi. None of the next three highest-ranked youngsters managed to KK (although Meisei only missed out in his final bout), leaving the top spot of the newly combined Tier 1/2 to a current second-level denizen. Hakuyozan will be the top rikishi of the really young guys after 5 wins at his career-high rank.

Our two makushita debutants of the basho, Kotaro and Mizuta, both confirmed their status as deshi to watch for the near future, also finishing KK at career-best positions to maintain their MK-free records.

Heisei Hopefuls for Kyushu 2014 - Tier 1: Top Talents - current yardstick: Tatsu (1994/06/01, debut 2010.03, shin-juryo 2014.11)
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
Onosho	Onomatsu	1996/07/04 (1)	2013.01	Ms3	Ms34e 4-3	Ms28e 5-2	Ms16e 5-2	Ms10e 4-3	Ms8e 5-2	Ms3e 5-2
Terutsuyoshi	Isegahama	1995/01/17 (8)	2010.03	Ms9	Ms11e 2-5	Ms24e 3-4	Ms32e 5-2	Ms22e 5-2	Ms15e 5-2	Ms9e 2-5
Meisei	Tatsunami	1995/07/24 (6)	2011.05	Ms13	Sd8e 4-3	Ms58w 3-4	Sd14e 6-1	Ms38e 6-1	Ms16e 4-3	Ms13w 3-4
Rikishin	Tatsunami	1995/10/07 (5)	2011.05	Ms6	Sd52e 3-4	Sd65w 6-1	Sd11e 5-2	Ms50e 7-0 Y	Ms6e 2-5	Ms16w 2-5
Hakuyozan	Takadagawa	1995/04/13 (7)	2011.05	Ms21	Ms47e 3-4	Ms57e 5-2	Ms43e 4-3	Ms34w 4-3	Ms27e 4-3	Ms21w 5-2
Daishoho	Oitekaze	1994/08/28 (10)	2013.03	Ms18	Sd5e 5-2	Ms44w 5-2	Ms31w 4-3	Ms24w 4-3	Ms18w 3-4	Ms23w 4-3
Kotaro	Fujishima	1995/12/06 (4)	2014.01	Ms45	Mz 3-2	Jk15w 6-1	Jd25e 5-2	Sd87e 6-1	Sd27w 6-1	Ms45w 4-3
Daichi	Shikoroyama	1994/07/15 (11)	2010.03	Ms51	Sd22w 2-5	Sd44w 6-1	Ms57e 3-4	Sd9w 4-3	Ms59w 4-3	Ms51w 3-4
Mizuta	Takanohana	1996/02/10 (3)	2014.01	Ms60	Mz 3-1	Jk13w 5-2	Jd52w 6-1	Sd83e 6-1	Sd24e 5-2	Ms60e 5-2
Kaito	Asakayama	1996/06/19 (2)	2012.05	Ms28	Sd34e 4-3	Sd21e 5-2	Ms59e 6-1	Ms28w 2-5	Ms47e 2-5	Sd9w 4-3
Masunosho	Chiganoura	1994/11/14 (9)	2010.03	Ms18	Sd1e 4-3	Ms53e 4-3	Ms46e 4-3	Ms38w 3-4	Ms48e 2-5	Sd11e 5-2

Tier 2:

And here's the rest of the crowd. Third time was the charm for Sasanoyama who turned around the score from his previous two makushita-joi appearances and finished 5-2 this time. Horikiri even went one better with 6 wins for another strong makekoshi bounceback. Thanks to a barrage of MKs ahead of them in the Kyushu hoshitori, both of them should find themselves promoted into the top 3 ranks for the next basho, potentially just 4 wins away from juryo.

However, the big surprise of the basho comes courtesy of Shinohara who turned a four-basho makekoshi slide into a zensho yusho. He'll be jumping above his previous career high of Ms41 (where the slide began), so it'll be interesting to see if he's more qualified for makushita competition now.

This section also had two makushita-debuting rikishi, and both of them acquitted themselves fairly well with a 4-3 for Tochinobori and a 3-4 for Kotokuzan. Undersized Ohara posted a nice 4-3 at his career high as well to make it into the upper half of the division for the first time. Last not least, the final Tier 2 basho for the Aki twins saw them take opposite paths with a 5-2 for the small one and a 2-5 for the large one.

Heisei Hopefuls for Kyushu 2014 - Tier 2: Promising Youngsters - Age 21 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
Sasanoyama	Kise	1992/12/30 (27)	2011.05	Ms10	Ms29w 4-3	Ms23w 4-3	Ms17w 4-3	Ms13w 2-5	Ms28w 6-1	Ms10w 5-2
Horikiri	Shikoroyama	1994/05/04 (13)	2013.05	Ms7	Sd23w 7-0 Y	Ms13w 3-4	Ms18e 5-2	Ms11w 5-2	Ms7e 3-4	Ms11e 6-1
Mitoyutaka	Nishikido	1993/04/08 (24)	2009.03	Ms16	Ms16w 3-4	Ms23e 4-3	Ms17e 2-5	Ms31w 5-2	Ms19e 4-3	Ms16e 3-4
Ikeru	Onomatsu	1992/11/26 (30)	2010.11	Ms18	Sd24w 4-3	Sd12e 5-2	Ms53e 4-3	Ms44e 5-2	Ms28e 5-2	Ms18w 2-5
Haguroho	Tatsunami	1993/07/08 (22)	2009.03	Ms20	Sd9w 2-5	Sd31w 4-3	Sd17w 5-2	Ms55w 6-1	Ms25e 4-3	Ms20e 3-4
Akinoyama	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (28)	2008.03	Ms21	Sd18w 6-1	Ms39e 4-3	Ms33w 4-3	Ms27w 4-3	Ms21e 3-4	Ms28e 2-5
Akinokawa	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (28)	2008.03	Ms17	Ms42w 3-4	Ms50e 4-3	Ms42e 6-1	Ms17e 3-4	Ms23e 3-4	Ms30w 5-2
Ohara	Shikoroyama	1993/12/14 (18)	2009.03	Ms33	Ms59e 2-5	Sd21w 6-1	Ms41e 3-4	Ms49e 4-3	Ms41e 4-3	Ms33w 4-3
Kotodaigo	Sadogatake	1993/01/14 (26)	2011.05	Ms24	Sd13w 6-1	Ms36w 4-3	Ms31e 3-4	Ms39e 5-2	Ms24e 2-5	Ms41e 4-3
Chiyokiryu	Kokonoe	1993/12/27 (17)	2012.03	Ms44	Sd30w 6-1	Ms50w 3-4	Sd4e 1-6	Sd36w 6-1	Ms51w 4-3	Ms44e 0-0-7
Goshi	Arashio	1993/10/05 (19)	2011.11	Ms7	Ms36w 3-4	Ms43w 4-3	Ms37e 4-3	Ms29w 3-4	Ms37w 3-4	Ms46w 3-4
Tochinobori	Kasugano	1993/09/01 (20)	2009.03	Ms47	Sd14e 3-4	Sd28e 3-4	Sd47w 4-3	Sd34e 5-2	Sd7w 5-2	Ms47e 4-3
Kotokuzan	Arashio	1994/03/11 (15)	2009.09	Ms51	Sd24e 2-5	Sd48e 4-3	Sd35e 4-3	Sd22w 4-3	Sd11w 5-2	Ms51e 3-4
Tsurubayashi	Kise	1993/12/31 (16)	2009.03	Ms12	Ms32e 5-2	Ms17e 4-3	Ms12w 2-5	Ms27e 3-4	Ms35w 2-4-1	Ms53w 5-2
Nishiyama	Onoe	1994/04/27 (14)	2010.03	Ms49	Sd21w 3-3-1	Sd35e 5-2	Sd10e 4-3	Ms59e 4-3	Ms49w 3-4	Sd2w 4-3
Aonosho	Dewanoumi	1993/06/03 (23)	2009.03	Ms38	Ms56w 5-2	Ms38e 2-5	Sd1e 2-5	Sd26w 3-4	Sd40w 5-2	Sd14e 3-4
Takakasuga	Kasugayama	1993/03/06 (25)	2011.07	Ms30	Sd20e 2-5	Sd42w 7-0 D	Ms30e 2-5	Ms45e 3-4	Ms55e 1-6	Sd24e 3-4
Shinohara	Onomatsu	1993/08/21 (21)	2012.01	Ms41	Ms59w 5-2	Ms41e 3-4	Ms49e 3-4	Ms58e 2-5	Sd22e 3-4	Sd39e 7-0 Y
Baraki	Shikihide	1994/05/10 (12)	2013.01	Ms58	Ms58e 0-7	Sd34e 3-4	Sd51w 1-6	Sd83w 4-3	Sd64e 2-5	Sd91w 5-2

Besides Akinokawa and Akinoyama it's also time for Sasanoyama and Ikeru to make the move to Tier 3.

No regular newcomers in either tier up here, so these are the guys we'll be starting the new year with, 25 24 in all.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Finishing up here... First, a small adjustment above, as I'd forgotten about Chiyokiryu's intai.

Tier 3:

Collegiate newcomer Abiko narrowly missed the very quick juryo promotion, falling to makekoshi in his final bout. Fellow gakusei deshi Kawabata also finished 3-4 to lose sight of the sekitori ranks further, and Masunoumi had one of his periodic setbacks. That left it to big Kawanari to set a highlight - a year after a close 3-4 miss of his own that was followed by an injury timeout, he's put up 6 wins in Kyushu to secure another kesho challenge for the coming basho.

Getting back to university rikishi, the makushita-debuting trio all managed to achieve kachikoshi; Takagi wasn't fazed by his high entry rank and scored a strong 6-1, rapidly putting the lie to my assumption that he's all weight and little else. Shiba a bit further down went 4-3, while Shodai at the bottom of the division produced 5 wins.

In other positive news, birthday boy Akua and Hakunishiki both achieved 4-3 records at their career highs, moving a bit closer to juryo. 6-1 scores came courtesy of Tochimaru, Sasakiyama and Wakayama, however only Wakayama was anywhere near his career-best position. On the other hand, our fourth makushita debutant Kainoryu had the worst possible experience, finishing winless at 0-7.

Heisei Hopefuls for Kyushu 2014 - Tier 3: Still Worth Watching - Age 23 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
Abiko	Oitekaze	1991/07/27 (47)	2014.01	Ms4	Mz 3-0	Jk12w 7-0 Y	Jd11w 7-0 Y	Sd21e 6-1	Ms42e 7-0 Y	Ms4e 3-4
Masunoumi	Chiganoura	1991/11/12 (44)	2010.01	Ms6	Ms9e 2-5	Ms21e 4-3	Ms14w 3-4	Ms21e 6-1	Ms8w 4-3	Ms6w 2-5
Kawabata	Oitekaze	1991/07/10 (50)	2014.03	Ms4	[/td2]	Ms15Td 5-2	Ms8w 4-3	Ms6e 4-3	Ms4e 3-4	Ms7e 3-4
Kawanari	Oguruma	1991/07/07 (51)	2007.03	Ms1	Ms6e 0-0-7	Ms46w 6-1	Ms20w 6-1	Ms7w 3-4	Ms12e 4-3	Ms9w 6-1
Chiyoshoma	Kokonoe	1991/07/20 (48)	2009.05	Ms8	Ms25e 4-3	Ms18w 5-2	Ms10e 4-3	Ms8e 3-4	Ms13e 4-3	Ms11w 3-4
Akua	Tatsunami	1990/11/06 (58)	2010.11	Ms12	Ms34w 4-3	Ms28w 2-5	Ms48e 6-1	Ms20w 4-3	Ms17w 5-2	Ms12e 4-3
Kotokobai	Sadogatake	1991/03/31 (54)	2006.03	Ms7	Ms33w 5-2	Ms17w 6-1	Ms7e 2-5	Ms18e 4-3	Ms15w 4-3	Ms13e 1-6
Matsumoto	Shikoroyama	1992/03/10 (38)	2007.03	Ms16	Ms40w 5-2	Ms25w 3-4	Ms34e 5-2	Ms23w 2-5	Ms40w 5-2	Ms25e 4-3
Hakunishiki	Kasugayama	1992/01/13 (39)	2007.03	Ms30	Ms50e 4-3	Ms42w 4-3	Ms35w 3-4	Ms43w 4-3	Ms36w 4-3	Ms30e 4-3
Takagi	Kise	1992/03/18 (37)	2014.03	Ms31		Mz 2-0	Jk5w 5-2	Jd53w 7-0 D	Sd54w 7-0 Y	Ms31w 6-1
Asakoki	Takasago	1990/12/19 (57)	2009.03	Ms34	Jd4e 7-0 D	Sd15e 3-4	Sd31w 4-3	Sd19w 6-1	Ms41w 4-3	Ms34w 3-4
Koba	Kise	1991/03/12 (55)	2013.03	Ms25	Ms31e 4-3	Ms25e 3-4	Ms33e 4-3	Ms25w 2-5	Ms42w 4-3	Ms36e 3-4
Onami	Arashio	1991/12/29 (40)	2009.11	Ms20	Ms28e 3-4	Ms37w 5-2	Ms23w 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 3-4	Ms37e 5-2
Tomisakae	Isegahama	1992/04/11 (34)	2008.03	Ms38	Sd25w 4-3	Sd13e 4-3	Sd3w 4-3	Ms54e 4-3	Ms46w 4-3	Ms38w 2-5
Tochimaru	Kasugano	1992/08/26 (31)	2011.05	Ms23	Ms23w 1-6	Ms48w 3-4	Sd3e 4-2-1	Ms53w 3-4	Sd3e 5-2	Ms43e 6-1
Shiba	Kise	1991/12/24 (42)	2014.03	Ms47		Mz 2-0	Jk6w 6-1	Jd27w 7-0 Y	Sd29w 6-1	Ms47w 4-3
Sasakiyama	Kise	1991/06/12 (53)	2010.01	Ms19	Ms22w 3-4	Ms30e 4-3	Ms26w 3-4	Ms35e 3-4	Ms43e 3-4	Ms52w 6-1
Kainoryu	Tomozuna	1991/09/03 (46)	2007.03	Ms55	Sd50w 5-2	Sd23e 3-4	Sd41e 5-2	Sd14e 4-3	Sd4w 4-3	Ms55e 0-7
Hokutowaka	Hakkaku	1992/06/20 (32)	2008.03	Ms44	Sd59w 4-3	Sd40w 5-2	Sd13w 5-2	Ms53e 4-3	Ms44e 3-4	Ms56e 4-3
Matsubayama	Kasugayama	1991/06/13 (52)	2007.03	Ms36	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1e 5-2	Ms45w 4-3	Ms36w 1-6	Sd6e 4-3	Ms56w 2-5
Shodai	Tokitsukaze	1991/11/05 (45)	2014.03	Ms59		Jk12w 7-0 Y	Jd10e 6-1	Sd48e 6-1	Ms59e 5-2
Wakayama	Onomatsu	1992/04/26 (33)	2011.07	Ms56	Sd23e 4-3	Sd10w 3-4	Sd28e 5-2	Sd4e 3-4	Sd17w 4-3	Sd5w 6-1
Kotofukuju	Sadogatake	1991/12/14 (43)	2007.03	Ms17	Ms58w 3-4	Sd13w 5-2	Ms54w 2-5	Sd15e 5-2	Ms56w 3-4	Sd8w 4-3
Yoshifuji	Isegahama	1991/12/25 (41)	2010.01	Ms52	Sd55w 4-3	Sd37e 6-1	Ms52w 3-4	Sd3w 2-5	Sd29e 4-3	Sd15w 3-4
Aoi	Shikoroyama	1992/04/02 (35)	2008.03	Ms49	Sd47e 3-4	Sd60w 5-2	Sd32w 6-1	Ms49w 2-5	Sd10e 3-4	Sd26e 3-4
Kotokensei	Sadogatake	1991/01/06 (56)	2006.03	Ms40	Sd27e 5-2	Sd4e 5-2	Ms47w 4-3	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1w 2-5	Sd27w 0-0-7
Aiyama	Kitanoumi	1992/03/23 (36)	2007.03	Ms52	Sd16w 5-2	Ms56w 3-4	Sd11w 4-3	Ms60w 3-4	Sd14e 2-5	Sd40w 4-3
Daijo	Takadagawa	1991/07/19 (49)	2007.03	Ms53	Sd83e 4-3	Sd63w 4-3	Sd51e 5-2	Sd27w 4-3	Sd15w 1-6	Sd53e 5-2

As indicated above, Akua turned 24 before the basho, but having recently made it into the joi, he's getting another 2 years as a Tier 4 denizen. Asakoki also had his birthday, but isn't that fortunate and will have to leave us; he's saying goodbye with a decent performance, having scored 3 wins at his career high. He might make some Tier 4 appearances down the line, but I can't imagine we'll be seeing him in juryo.

One newcomer is joining us here:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
Kototsubasa	Sadogatake	1992/02/23	2007.03	Sd21	Sd51w 4-3	Sd33w 2-5	Sd62e 5-2	Sd35e 4-3	Sd21w 2-5	Sd48w 6-1

Another one off the Sadogatake talent assembly line, Kototsubasa probably isn't as promising as some others we've seen in recent years; having taken 24 basho to reach sandanme and another 22 to go to makushita he's almost 22 years of age already, which is generally not a great sign - not to mention that his makushita debut is of the fluky variety via a low-ranked 6-1. Both a note in his favour and a mark against his future chances is his low weight, which was barely enough to turn pro and still isn't much above 100 kg. If nothing else he's bringing an interesting fighting style to the third division, as attested by his curious kimarite mix - his career top 5 are okuridashi, uwatenage, yorikiri, oshidashi, and tsukiotoshi, which is utterly all over the place.

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Tier 4:

In the most flabbergasting prospect development in years, Takatoshi left the sumo world potentially just one KK away from juryo. Luckily (for us), there's no shortage of promising candidates here, and the other trio of top 15-ranked rikishi all finished kachikoshi. The most stunning result of the basho was produced by Higoarashi, however, who won his second makushita yusho of the year, albeit following a 4-basho slide from Ms2 to Ms49. It remains to be seen if his second jump to the top ranks will prove more successful.

Heisei Hopefuls for Kyushu 2014 - Tier 4: Last Chance Saloon - Ms15+ Age 25 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
Takatoshi	Takanohana	1990/04/19 (62)	2009.01	Ms3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 5-2	Ms15e 3-4	Ms22w 6-1	Ms9e 5-2	Ms3w 0-0-7
Ishiura	Miyagino	1990/01/10 (65)	2013.01	Ms2	Ms11w 5-2	Ms5e 4-3	Ms2w 2-5	Ms11e 5-2	Ms6w 3-4	Ms10e 4-3
Kairyu	Dewanoumi	1990/03/01 (63)	2005.03	Ms3	Ms26e 6-1	Ms8e 2-5	Ms19w 3-4	Ms26e 5-2	Ms18e 5-2	Ms12w 4-3
Nishikigi	Isenoumi	1990/08/25 (60)	2006.03	Ms3	Ms16e 4-3	Ms10w 2-5	Ms22w 4-3	Ms18w 3-4	Ms24w 5-2	Ms15w 5-2
Asabenkei	Takasago	1989/02/12 (73)	2007.03	Ms15	Ms35e 5-2	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 5-2	Ms15w 3-4	Ms20w 4-3	Ms17w 3-4
Daishoryu	Oitekaze	1989/12/29 (66)	2005.09	Ms12	Ms39e 4-3	Ms31e 5-2	Ms18w 5-2	Ms12w 2-5	Ms26w 4-3	Ms20w 4-3
Tochinosato	Kasugano	1989/07/07 (71)	2008.03	Ms4	Ms21w 4-3	Ms16e 3-4	Ms23e 1-6	Ms48e 5-2	Ms32e 5-2	Ms21e 3-4
Hokaho	Miyagino	1989/06/21 (72)	2007.03	Ms11	Ms46e 5-2	Ms29e 3-4	Ms38e 5-2	Ms26w 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms26w 5-2
Daishoiwa	Oitekaze	1990/10/29 (59)	2006.03	Ms11	Ms51e 3-4	Sd2e 3-4	Sd20e 7-0 D	Ms14e 4-3	Ms11e 1-6	Ms36w 5-2
Mankajo	Kasugayama	1990/02/10 (64)	2005.03	Ms6	Ms12e 5-2	Ms6e 2-5	Ms16w 3-4	Ms24e 3-4	Ms33e 3-4	Ms42e 2-5
Higoarashi	Kise	1989/08/20 (68)	2006.05	Ms2	Ms21e 7-0 Y	Ms2e 3-4	Ms5w 3-4	Ms9w 1-6	Ms30e 2-2-3	Ms49e 7-0 Y
Nogami	Oguruma	1990/08/15 (61)	2009.01	Ms15	Ms27e 3-4	Ms35w 2-5	Ms55e 2-5	Sd16e 2-5	Sd42e 5-2	Sd16w 3-4
Byakko	Azumazeki	1989/07/11 (69)	2005.03	Ms13	Ms48w 4-3	Ms40w 2-5	Sd4w 5-2	Ms44w 3-4	Ms53w 2-5	Sd18w 6-1
Hamaguchi	Kise	1989/07/11 (69)	2012.05	Ms4	Sd37e 0-0-7	Sd98e 0-0-7	Jd58w 0-0-7	Jk18e 7-0 Y	Jd13e 7-0 Y	Sd22w 6-1
Kansei	Sakaigawa	1989/08/25 (67)	2008.03	Ms3	Ms3e 3-4	Ms6w 0-3-4	Ms41w 0-0-7	Sd21w 0-0-7	Sd81w 0-0-7	Jd42e 0-0-7

One newcomer here, as well:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.01	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11
Chiyosakae	Kokonoe	1990/07/12	2009.01	Ms18	Ms24w 4-3	Ms18e 3-4	Ms26e 2-5	Ms41w 4-3	Ms34w 4-3	Ms27w 6-1

Speaking of assembly lines, here's a prospect off the recently even more successful one at Kokonoe-beya. Chiyosakae actually didn't reach makushita until age 22 either, but he came in as a high schooler, so it was only 20 basho in his case. Naturally he was previously with us in Tier 3, but dropped off back in July. Now he's back for another year and a half, and given the highly competitive environment at his stable, he's definitely got at least an outside chance at making juryo.

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Hatsu 2015, Tier 2:

Sorry about the weird double header row on the table, but I didn't want to deny Onosho his rightful mention as the yardstick. ;-) Of course, he's in no danger of losing that spot for the foreseeable future. It doesn't look too unlikely that we'll see a graduation here though, as Horikiri should need just 4 wins to make it to juryo.

Heisei Hopefuls for Hatsu 2015 - Tier 1: Top Talents - current yardstick: Onosho (1996/07/04, debut 2013.01, shin-juryo 2015.01)
Heisei Hopefuls for Hatsu 2015 - Tier 2: Promising Youngsters - Age 21 and under
+/-	Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11	2015.01
▲ 1	Horikiri	Shikoroyama	1994/05/04 (12)	2013.05	Ms2	Ms13w 3-4	Ms18e 5-2	Ms11w 5-2	Ms7e 3-4	Ms11e 6-1	Ms2w
▲ 5	Hakuyozan	Takadagawa	1995/04/13 (6)	2011.05	Ms11	Ms57e 5-2	Ms43e 4-3	Ms34w 4-3	Ms27e 4-3	Ms21w 5-2	Ms11w
▲ 5	Daishoho	Oitekaze	1994/08/28 (9)	2013.03	Ms18	Ms44w 5-2	Ms31w 4-3	Ms24w 4-3	Ms18w 3-4	Ms23w 4-3	Ms18e
▼ 1	Meisei	Tatsunami	1995/07/24 (5)	2011.05	Ms13	Ms58w 3-4	Sd14e 6-1	Ms38e 6-1	Ms16e 4-3	Ms13w 3-4	Ms18w
▼ 4	Terutsuyoshi	Isegahama	1995/01/17 (7)	2010.03	Ms9	Ms24e 3-4	Ms32e 5-2	Ms22e 5-2	Ms15e 5-2	Ms9e 2-5	Ms22e
▼ 2	Mitoyutaka	Nishikido	1993/04/08 (22)	2009.03	Ms16	Ms23e 4-3	Ms17e 2-5	Ms31w 5-2	Ms19e 4-3	Ms16e 3-4	Ms23e
▲ 2	Ohara	Shikoroyama	1993/12/14 (16)	2009.03	Ms27	Sd21w 6-1	Ms41e 3-4	Ms49e 4-3	Ms41e 4-3	Ms33w 4-3	Ms27e
▼ 2	Haguroho	Tatsunami	1993/07/08 (20)	2009.03	Ms20	Sd31w 4-3	Sd17w 5-2	Ms55w 6-1	Ms25e 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w
▲ 14	Shinohara	Onomatsu	1993/08/21 (19)	2012.01	Ms28	Ms41e 3-4	Ms49e 3-4	Ms58e 2-5	Sd22e 3-4	Sd39e 7-0 Y	Ms28w
● 0	Kotodaigo	Sadogatake	1993/01/14 (24)	2011.05	Ms24	Ms36w 4-3	Ms31e 3-4	Ms39e 5-2	Ms24e 2-5	Ms41e 4-3	Ms34e
▲ 5	Tsurubayashi	Kise	1993/12/31 (15)	2009.03	Ms12	Ms17e 4-3	Ms12w 2-5	Ms27e 3-4	Ms35w 2-4-1	Ms53w 5-2	Ms34w
▼ 7	Rikishin	Tatsunami	1995/10/07 (4)	2011.05	Ms6	Sd65w 6-1	Sd11e 5-2	Ms50e 7-0 Y	Ms6e 2-5	Ms16w 2-5	Ms36e
▼ 2	Kotaro	Fujishima	1995/12/06 (3)	2014.01	Ms36	Jk15w 6-1	Jd25e 5-2	Sd87e 6-1	Sd27w 6-1	Ms45w 4-3	Ms36w
▼ 1	Tochinobori	Kasugano	1993/09/01 (18)	2009.03	Ms38	Sd28e 3-4	Sd47w 4-3	Sd34e 5-2	Sd7w 5-2	Ms47e 4-3	Ms38e
▲ 2	Mizuta	Takanohana	1996/02/10 (2)	2014.01	Ms38	Jk13w 5-2	Jd52w 6-1	Sd83e 6-1	Sd24e 5-2	Ms60e 5-2	Ms38w
▲ 4	Masunosho	Chiganoura	1994/11/14 (8)	2010.03	Ms18	Ms53e 4-3	Ms46e 4-3	Ms38w 3-4	Ms48e 2-5	Sd11e 5-2	Ms48e
▲ 1	Nishiyama	Onoe	1994/04/27 (13)	2010.03	Ms49	Sd35e 5-2	Sd10e 4-3	Ms59e 4-3	Ms49w 3-4	Sd2w 4-3	Ms54e
▼ 6	Goshi	Arashio	1993/10/05 (17)	2011.11	Ms7	Ms43w 4-3	Ms37e 4-3	Ms29w 3-4	Ms37w 3-4	Ms46w 3-4	Ms55w
● 0	Kaito	Asakayama	1996/06/19 (1)	2012.05	Ms28	Sd21e 5-2	Ms59e 6-1	Ms28w 2-5	Ms47e 2-5	Sd9w 4-3	Ms58e
▼ 6	Kotokuzan	Arashio	1994/03/11 (14)	2009.09	Ms51	Sd48e 4-3	Sd35e 4-3	Sd22w 4-3	Sd11w 5-2	Ms51e 3-4	Sd1w
▼ 6	Daichi	Shikoroyama	1994/07/15 (10)	2010.03	Ms51	Sd44w 6-1	Ms57e 3-4	Sd9w 4-3	Ms59w 4-3	Ms51w 3-4	Sd2w
▼ 1	Aonosho	Dewanoumi	1993/06/03 (21)	2009.03	Ms38	Ms38e 2-5	Sd1e 2-5	Sd26w 3-4	Sd40w 5-2	Sd14e 3-4	Sd26w
▼ 1	Takakasuga	Kasugayama	1993/03/06 (23)	2011.07	Ms30	Sd42w 7-0 D	Ms30e 2-5	Ms45e 3-4	Ms55e 1-6	Sd24e 3-4	Sd38e
● 0	Baraki	Shikihide	1994/05/10 (11)	2013.01	Ms58	Sd34e 3-4	Sd51w 1-6	Sd83w 4-3	Sd64e 2-5	Sd91w 5-2	Sd57w

Kotodaigo is moving to Tier 3 after the basho.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Hatsu 2015, Tier 3:

Two strongly-placed promotion contenders here as well, although I suspect Sasanoyama will need a bit more time. Kawanari is always a mystery for me up in the single-digit ranks, so I'll admit I don't really have a clue about his chances. As usual for guys with his body type, it'll probably come down to how well he'll manage to maintain his balance and avoid silly losses.

Abiko had his first setback last basho and it'll be interesting to see if (and/or how) he bounces back from that.

Heisei Hopefuls for Hatsu 2015 - Tier 3: Still Worth Watching - Age 23 and under
+/-	Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11	2015.01
▲ 3	Kawanari	Oguruma	1991/07/07 (50)	2007.03	Ms1	Ms46w 6-1	Ms20w 6-1	Ms7w 3-4	Ms12e 4-3	Ms9w 6-1	Ms1e
▲ 3	Sasanoyama	Kise	1992/12/30 (25)	2011.05	Ms3	Ms23w 4-3	Ms17w 4-3	Ms13w 2-5	Ms28w 6-1	Ms10w 5-2	Ms3e
▼ 2	Abiko	Oitekaze	1991/07/27 (46)	2014.01	Ms4	Jk12w 7-0 Y	Jd11w 7-0 Y	Sd21e 6-1	Ms42e 7-0 Y	Ms4e 3-4	Ms8e
▼ 1	Kawabata	Oitekaze	1991/07/10 (49)	2014.03	Ms4	Ms15Td 5-2	Ms8w 4-3	Ms6e 4-3	Ms4e 3-4	Ms7e 3-4	Ms12e
▲ 8	Takagi	Kise	1992/03/18 (35)	2014.03	Ms12	Mz 2-0	Jk5w 5-2	Jd53w 7-0 D	Sd54w 7-0 Y	Ms31w 6-1	Ms12w
● 0	Chiyoshoma	Kokonoe	1991/07/20 (47)	2009.05	Ms8	Ms18w 5-2	Ms10e 4-3	Ms8e 3-4	Ms13e 4-3	Ms11w 3-4	Ms16w
▼ 5	Masunoumi	Chiganoura	1991/11/12 (43)	2010.01	Ms6	Ms21e 4-3	Ms14w 3-4	Ms21e 6-1	Ms8w 4-3	Ms6w 2-5	Ms17e
▲ 4	Akinokawa	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (26)	2008.03	Ms17	Ms50e 4-3	Ms42e 6-1	Ms17e 3-4	Ms23e 3-4	Ms30w 5-2	Ms17w
● 0	Matsumoto	Shikoroyama	1992/03/10 (36)	2007.03	Ms16	Ms25w 3-4	Ms34e 5-2	Ms23w 2-5	Ms40w 5-2	Ms25e 4-3	Ms20e
▲ 7	Tochimaru	Kasugano	1992/08/26 (29)	2011.05	Ms21	Ms48w 3-4	Sd3e 4-2-1	Ms53w 3-4	Sd3e 5-2	Ms43e 6-1	Ms21e
▲ 4	Onami	Arashio	1991/12/29 (39)	2009.11	Ms20	Ms37w 5-2	Ms23w 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 3-4	Ms37e 5-2	Ms22w
▼ 1	Hakunishiki	Kasugayama	1992/01/13 (38)	2007.03	Ms24	Ms42w 4-3	Ms35w 3-4	Ms43w 4-3	Ms36w 4-3	Ms30e 4-3	Ms24e
▲ 6	Sasakiyama	Kise	1991/06/12 (52)	2010.01	Ms19	Ms30e 4-3	Ms26w 3-4	Ms35e 3-4	Ms43e 3-4	Ms52w 6-1	Ms26e
▲ 10	Wakayama	Onomatsu	1992/04/26 (31)	2011.07	Ms31	Sd10w 3-4	Sd28e 5-2	Sd4e 3-4	Sd17w 4-3	Sd5w 6-1	Ms31w
▲ 8	Shodai	Tokitsukaze	1991/11/05 (44)	2014.03	Ms37	Mz 2-1	Jk12w 7-0 Y	Jd10e 6-1	Sd48e 6-1	Ms59e 5-2	Ms37w
▼ 8	Ikeru	Onomatsu	1992/11/26 (28)	2010.11	Ms18	Sd12e 5-2	Ms53e 4-3	Ms44e 5-2	Ms28e 5-2	Ms18w 2-5	Ms39e
▲ 1	Shiba	Kise	1991/12/24 (41)	2014.03	Ms40	Mz 2-0	Jk6w 6-1	Jd27w 7-0 Y	Sd29w 6-1	Ms47w 4-3	Ms40e
▼ 11	Kotokobai	Sadogatake	1991/03/31 (53)	2006.03	Ms7	Ms17w 6-1	Ms7e 2-5	Ms18e 4-3	Ms15w 4-3	Ms13e 1-6	Ms40w
▼ 5	Koba	Kise	1991/03/12 (54)	2013.03	Ms25	Ms25e 3-4	Ms33e 4-3	Ms25w 2-5	Ms42w 4-3	Ms36e 3-4	Ms46w
▲ 1	Hokutowaka	Hakkaku	1992/06/20 (30)	2008.03	Ms44	Sd40w 5-2	Sd13w 5-2	Ms53e 4-3	Ms44e 3-4	Ms56e 4-3	Ms49e
▼ 11	Akinoyama	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (26)	2008.03	Ms21	Ms39e 4-3	Ms33w 4-3	Ms27w 4-3	Ms21e 3-4	Ms28e 2-5	Ms50w
▼ 6	Tomisakae	Isegahama	1992/04/11 (32)	2008.03	Ms38	Sd13e 4-3	Sd3w 4-3	Ms54e 4-3	Ms46w 4-3	Ms38w 2-5	Ms57e
▲ 2	Kotofukuju	Sadogatake	1991/12/14 (42)	2007.03	Ms17	Sd13w 5-2	Ms54w 2-5	Sd15e 5-2	Ms56w 3-4	Sd8w 4-3	Ms57w
New	Kototsubasa	Sadogatake	1992/02/23 (37)	2007.03	Ms59	Sd33w 2-5	Sd62e 5-2	Sd35e 4-3	Sd21w 2-5	Sd48w 6-1	Ms59w
▼ 3	Matsubayama	Kasugayama	1991/06/13 (51)	2007.03	Ms36	Sd1e 5-2	Ms45w 4-3	Ms36w 1-6	Sd6e 4-3	Ms56w 2-5	Sd18e
▲ 5	Daijo	Takadagawa	1991/07/19 (48)	2007.03	Ms53	Sd63w 4-3	Sd51e 5-2	Sd27w 4-3	Sd15w 1-6	Sd53e 5-2	Sd24e
▲ 2	Aiyama	Kitanoumi	1992/03/23 (34)	2007.03	Ms52	Ms56w 3-4	Sd11w 4-3	Ms60w 3-4	Sd14e 2-5	Sd40w 4-3	Sd26e
▼ 2	Yoshifuji	Isegahama	1991/12/25 (40)	2010.01	Ms52	Sd37e 6-1	Ms52w 3-4	Sd3w 2-5	Sd29e 4-3	Sd15w 3-4	Sd27w
▼ 9	Kainoryu	Tomozuna	1991/09/03 (45)	2007.03	Ms55	Sd23e 3-4	Sd41e 5-2	Sd14e 4-3	Sd4w 4-3	Ms55e 0-7	Sd30w
▼ 3	Aoi	Shikoroyama	1992/04/02 (33)	2008.03	Ms49	Sd60w 5-2	Sd32w 6-1	Ms49w 2-5	Sd10e 3-4	Sd26e 3-4	Sd42w
▼ 3	Kotokensei	Sadogatake	1991/01/06 (55)	2006.03	Ms40	Sd4e 5-2	Ms47w 4-3	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1w 2-5	Sd27w 0-0-7	Sd87w

In makushita at 18, but unfortunately on the road to nowhere at 24; we're saying goodbye to Kotokensei.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Hatsu 2015, Tier 4:

Probably no immediate promotion candidates here, but between yusho winner Higoarashi and forum favourite Ishiura (and for me personally also Akua), there should still be some rikishi of interest. Tier newcomer Chiyosakae may also be one to keep an eye on, as his Kyushu 6-1 could as easily portend a significant upturn in form as it could indicate a severe battering to come.

Former promotion contender Kansei will have to return from his injury absence this basho or he'll be taking a trip off the banzuke.

Heisei Hopefuls for Hatsu 2015 - Tier 4: Last Chance Saloon - Ms15+ Age 25 and under
+/-	Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2014.03	2014.05	2014.07	2014.09	2014.11	2015.01
▲ 11	Higoarashi	Kise	1989/08/20 (66)	2006.05	Ms2	Ms2e 3-4	Ms5w 3-4	Ms9w 1-6	Ms30e 2-2-3	Ms49e 7-0 Y	Ms6e
▼ 1	Ishiura	Miyagino	1990/01/10 (63)	2013.01	Ms2	Ms5e 4-3	Ms2w 2-5	Ms11e 5-2	Ms6w 3-4	Ms10e 4-3	Ms6w
▲ 1	Nishikigi	Isenoumi	1990/08/25 (58)	2006.03	Ms3	Ms10w 2-5	Ms22w 4-3	Ms18w 3-4	Ms24w 5-2	Ms15w 5-2	Ms7w
▼ 2	Akua	Tatsunami	1990/11/06 (56)	2010.11	Ms8	Ms28w 2-5	Ms48e 6-1	Ms20w 4-3	Ms17w 5-2	Ms12e 4-3	Ms8w
▼ 2	Kairyu	Dewanoumi	1990/03/01 (61)	2005.03	Ms3	Ms8e 2-5	Ms19w 3-4	Ms26e 5-2	Ms18e 5-2	Ms12w 4-3	Ms9e
New	Chiyosakae	Kokonoe	1990/07/12 (60)	2009.01	Ms11	Ms18e 3-4	Ms26e 2-5	Ms41w 4-3	Ms34w 4-3	Ms27w 6-1	Ms11e
▲ 1	Hokaho	Miyagino	1989/06/21 (70)	2007.03	Ms11	Ms29e 3-4	Ms38e 5-2	Ms26w 4-3	Ms20e 3-4	Ms26w 5-2	Ms15w
▼ 2	Daishoryu	Oitekaze	1989/12/29 (64)	2005.09	Ms12	Ms31e 5-2	Ms18w 5-2	Ms12w 2-5	Ms26w 4-3	Ms20w 4-3	Ms16e
▲ 1	Daishoiwa	Oitekaze	1990/10/29 (57)	2006.03	Ms11	Sd2e 3-4	Sd20e 7-0 D	Ms14e 4-3	Ms11e 1-6	Ms36w 5-2	Ms21w
▼ 5	Asabenkei	Takasago	1989/02/12 (71)	2007.03	Ms15	Ms20e 3-4	Ms27w 5-2	Ms15w 3-4	Ms20w 4-3	Ms17w 3-4	Ms25e
▼ 4	Tochinosato	Kasugano	1989/07/07 (69)	2008.03	Ms4	Ms16e 3-4	Ms23e 1-6	Ms48e 5-2	Ms32e 5-2	Ms21e 3-4	Ms29w
▲ 2	Byakko	Azumazeki	1989/07/11 (67)	2005.03	Ms13	Ms40w 2-5	Sd4w 5-2	Ms44w 3-4	Ms53w 2-5	Sd18w 6-1	Ms41e
▲ 2	Hamaguchi	Kise	1989/07/11 (67)	2012.05	Ms4	Sd98e 0-0-7	Jd58w 0-0-7	Jk18e 7-0 Y	Jd13e 7-0 Y	Sd22w 6-1	Ms45e
▼ 3	Mankajo	Kasugayama	1990/02/10 (62)	2005.03	Ms6	Ms6e 2-5	Ms16w 3-4	Ms24e 3-4	Ms33e 3-4	Ms42e 2-5	Ms60w
▼ 2	Nogami	Oguruma	1990/08/15 (59)	2009.01	Ms15	Ms35w 2-5	Ms55e 2-5	Sd16e 2-5	Sd42e 5-2	Sd16w 3-4	Sd30e
● 0	Kansei	Sakaigawa	1989/08/25 (65)	2008.03	Ms3	Ms6w 0-3-4	Ms41w 0-0-7	Sd21w 0-0-7	Sd81w 0-0-7	Jd42e 0-0-7	Jk15e

One birthday boy here, too, as Asabenkei turns 26 and sees his prospect status expire for good.

Edited January 8, 2015 by Asashosakari

[krindel 673]

Since Onosho is being a spoilsport and cleared out Tier 1, might be interesting to have a note of the currently highest ranked rikishi who is younger than him?

Not sure if I did the query correctly, but seems like Takayoshitoshi is the current Top Tier 1 potential candidate at Sandanme 6, and seems close to moving up, since he comes from three KK.

Takagenji is relatively close at Sandanme 23, although he was even closer last basho and ended up MK...

Three more rikishi (Yakabe, Honda and Aoto) are also in Sandanme, although non of the three seems to be consistent enough to break into Makushita anytime soon...

Seems like after a few quick yardstick changes last year, Onosho is likely to remain the youngest sekitori for even longer than Chiyootori was, unless Omichi or another collegiate champion decides to join and takes advantage of his Ms start...

[Asashosakari 19,513]

Yup, you've named all five candidates in sandanme.

Forget about collegiate rikishi though - even the current first-year students are older than Onosho. ;-)

Edited January 8, 2015 by Asashosakari

[krindel 673]

Yup, you've named all five candidates in sandanme.

Forget about collegiate rikishi though - even the current first-year students are older than Onosho. ;-)

True :-). I was thinking of Ichinojo's recent short stint as yardstick, forgetting both how young he is compared to normal tsukedashi and how much younger Onosho is than previous incumbents of the yardstick tittle (including Chiyootori who stayed there for ages)... Hope he manages to also stick around at the sekitori ranks like most of the rest did, even though he's so much younger...

So I guess we should get used to a mostly empty Tier 1 for a very very long time...

Edit: On a semi-related note, would be interesting to see how the previous guys who had a tenure as "Youngest sekitori" did overall in their career... Is there any way to query this? Otherwise I guess I could just leaf through this thread and copy down names :-)

Edited January 9, 2015 by krindel

[Gurowake 4,088]

If anyone's interested, here are the record holders since (appropriately enough) the start of the Heisei era. Haru 1995 was special in that three shin-juryo renewed the old record at once, so I'm listing all of them. Data given are birthdate, sekitori debut basho and eventual career-high rank (still open to revision for several newer arrivals, of course). More gaps of longer than two years than I expected...

Kyokugozan 1968/09/18, 1988.11 (M9)

Takanohana 1972/08/12, 1989.11 (Y)

Rikio 1972/12/20, 1993.07 (M4)

Tsurunofuji 1973/01/29, 1994.11 (J9)

Kyokushuzan 1973/03/08, 1995.03 (K)

Gokenzan 1973/07/12, 1995.03 (J6)

Daihisho 1973/08/30, 1995.03 (M10)

Chiyotaikai 1976/04/29, 1995.07 (O)

Tochiazuma 1976/11/09, 1996.05 (O)

Miyabiyama 1977/07/28, 1998.11 (O)

Aminishiki 1978/10/03, 2000.01 (S)

Asashoryu 1980/09/27, 2000.09 (Y)

Asasekiryu 1981/08/07, 2002.07 (S)

Hakuho 1985/03/11, 2004.01 (Y)

Kisenosato 1986/07/03, 2004.05 (O*)

Tochiozan 1987/03/09, 2006.09 (S*)

Wakanoho 1988/07/08, 2007.01 (M1)

Masuraumi 1988/10/15, 2010.03 (J5*)

(And as a reminder of just how awesome Wakanoho's rise was, when he reached juryo in 2007.01 nobody younger than him had even reached makushita.)

*Rank highs updated for events after original post.

Covered in this thread:

Masunoyama

Chiyoarashi

Chiyootori

Ichinojo

Daieisho

Kagayaki (Tatsu)

Onosho

Also, Takayasu and Kotoyuki were promoted to Juryo the same basho as Masunoyama and Chiyoarashi, respectively.

Edited January 9, 2015 by Gurowake

[Ack! 471]

In makushita at 18, but unfortunately on the road to nowhere at 24; we're saying goodbye to Kotokensei.

Just curious if you have specific criteria for who merits making the list? As a case in point, Sasayama has been a slow climber and turns 25 this week, but hasn't been on the Tier 4 list.

[Gurowake 4,088]

Tier 4 requirement is career high rank of Ms15 or better (ok, not in Juryo either).

[Ack! 471]

Just curious if you have specific criteria for who merits making the list? As a case in point, Sasayama has been a slow climber and turns 25 this week, but hasn't been on the Tier 4 list.

Tier 4 requirement is career high rank of Ms15 or better (ok, not in Juryo either).

That makes sense. But there are numerous exceptions to that rule on the list -- too many to list, in fact. Sasayama may or may not make MS15 before he passes the age limit at the rate he is going. I really enjoy this thread!

Edited January 11, 2015 by Ack!

[Asashosakari 19,513]

But there are numerous exceptions to that rule on the list -- too many to list, in fact.

Can you clarify this, please? I'm a bit confused right now.

[Gurowake 4,088]

They have to have already had a basho ranked at Ms15 or higher when they go on the list. We can't predict what their future high rank is going be.

[Ack! 471]

But there are numerous exceptions to that rule on the list -- too many to list, in fact.

Can you clarify this, please? I'm a bit confused right now.

Here's a notable exception to the stated rule of a having achieved Ms15 prior to being added to the list: Kototsubasa was newly added to the Tier 3 list for this tournament, having achieved a career high rank of Ms59 for the current basho. There are numerous others in Tier 3 with career high ranks below Ms15. Or is the Ms15 criteria only applied to Tier 4? If so, what is the criteria for the other tiers? I am genuinely curious!

[krindel 673]

But there are numerous exceptions to that rule on the list -- too many to list, in fact.

Can you clarify this, please? I'm a bit confused right now.

Here's a notable exception to the stated rule of a having achieved Ms15 prior to being added to the list: Kototsubasa was newly added to the Tier 3 list for this tournament, having achieved a career high rank of Ms59 for the current basho. There are numerous others in Tier 3 with career high ranks below Ms15. Or is the Ms15 criteria only applied to Tier 4? If so, what is the criteria for the other tiers? I am genuinely curious!

OK, here is a try to explain...

1) Tier 1: Having a career high rank in Makushita and being born after the current youngest guy to have made it to sekitori (the "yardstick")

2) Tier 2: Being 21 years old or younger and having a career high rank in Makushita

3) Tier 3: Being 23 years old or younger and having a career high rank in Makushita

4) Tier 4: Being 25 years old or younger and having a career high rank of Ms15 or better.

P.S. To the best of my knowledge we don't yet have a rule of what happens if the "yardstick" is demoted, as I don't think it has happened yet since the start of this thread.

Edit: Well, Chiyoarashi was demoted a couple of basho before Chiyootori was promoted to replace him, so I guess we did have a precedent... Although if Onosho doesn't manage to stick to the sekitori ranks, we might have a far longer issue of a yardstick that is not an actual sekitori :-)

Edited January 12, 2015 by krindel

[Asashosakari 19,513]

P.S. To the best of my knowledge we don't yet have a rule of what happens if the "yardstick" is demoted, as I don't think it has happened yet since the start of this thread.

Edit: Well, Chiyoarashi was demoted a couple of basho before Chiyootori was promoted to replace him, so I guess we did have a precedent... Although if Onosho doesn't manage to stick to the sekitori ranks, we might have a far longer issue of a yardstick that is not an actual sekitori :-)

The whole thing started out as just an attempt to look for the next youngest guy to reach the sekitori ranks, before it morphed into an all-purpose talent tracker. Given that, what the yardstick himself does isn't important - even if he's demoted, he's still the youngest rikishi with sekitori experience after all. (It predates this thread, but in Wakanoho's case he as the youngest sekitori was actually no longer in sumo when the next rikishi took over the baton.) Edited January 12, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Rufakiyama 16]

How Do You Make That

[Ack! 471]

But there are numerous exceptions to that rule on the list -- too many to list, in fact.

Can you clarify this, please? I'm a bit confused right now.

Here's a notable exception to the stated rule of a having achieved Ms15 prior to being added to the list: Kototsubasa was newly added to the Tier 3 list for this tournament, having achieved a career high rank of Ms59 for the current basho. There are numerous others in Tier 3 with career high ranks below Ms15. Or is the Ms15 criteria only applied to Tier 4? If so, what is the criteria for the other tiers? I am genuinely curious!

OK, here is a try to explain...

1) Tier 1: Having a career high rank in Makushita and being born after the current youngest guy to have made it to sekitori (the "yardstick")

2) Tier 2: Being 21 years old or younger and having a career high rank in Makushita

3) Tier 3: Being 23 years old or younger and having a career high rank in Makushita

4) Tier 4: Being 25 years old or younger and having a career high rank of Ms15 or better.

Thanks! That adds meaning to the data. IMO where you draw the line to qualify is arbitrary. It just depends on how many rikishi you want to track. But knowing where the line is says a lot more about performance since qualification.

[Pikenoyama 27]

Since Onosho is being a spoilsport and cleared out Tier 1, might be interesting to have a note of the currently highest ranked rikishi who is younger than him?

Not sure if I did the query correctly, but seems like Takayoshitoshi is the current Top Tier 1 potential candidate at Sandanme 6, and seems close to moving up, since he comes from three KK.

Takagenji is relatively close at Sandanme 23, although he was even closer last basho and ended up MK...............................

The younger Takanohana twins are setting the base for renewed Tier 1 this basho.

By the way we have yet another guy younger than Onosho, who might be interesting to watch as the potential yardstick holder and that is Sato also from Takanohana beya.

As it has not been mentioned yet in this thread let me remind that all existing Tiers last basho produced one promotion to Juryo with Tier 2 Horikiri/Abi, Tier 3 Kawanari/Amakaze and Tier 4 Ishiura.

Edited February 26, 2015 by Pikenoyama