Heisei Hopefuls - prospect watch

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 4:

Day 14 saw a playoff of sorts, with kachikoshi at stake for the two highest-ranked members of Tier 4 - Chiyonoumi prevailed over Wakamotoharu in that one to secure his third straight kachikoshi and 8th in 9 tournaments since returning from injury, while Wakamotoharu was sent to makekoshi.

Kizaki found himself on 3-3 after 12 days yet again, but unlike the last two tournaments he managed to convert his KK opportunity this time and will be moving a bit closer to juryo again. Tsurubayashi, still in rebuilding mode after his 1-6 setback last July, scored his third KK in a row and is returning to the single-digit ranks. In less good news it was also the third consecutive makekoshi for Kotodaigo and he's now far away from any promotion hopes, as is Tochimaru after a disastrous 1-6.

Tamaki fluked an 8th bout assignment due to a sekitori withdrawal and made the most of it, finishing the basho 3-5 with a win.
 

Heisei Hopefuls for Hatsu 2018 - Tier 4: Last Chance Saloon - Ms15+ Age 25 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.03	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01
Wakamotoharu	Arashio	1993/10/05 (54)	2011.11	Ms5	Ms5w 3-4	Ms9w 3-4	Ms14e 3-4	Ms18w 5-2	Ms11e 4-3	Ms6w 3-4
Chiyonoumi	Kokonoe	1993/01/11 (59)	2015.05	Ms10	Ms32e 4-3	Ms26w 4-3	Ms22e 2-5	Ms39e 5-2	Ms27w 6-1	Ms10e 4-3
Tamaki	Takasago	1993/05/29 (56)	2016.01	Ms10	Ms15e 3-4	Ms20w 3-4	Ms30w 4-3	Ms23e 5-2	Ms15e 4-3	Ms10w 3-5
Kizaki	Kise	1993/05/06 (57)	2016.03	Ms3	Ms13w 5-2	Ms9e 4-3	Ms7e 5-2	Ms3w 3-4	Ms7e 3-4	Ms11e 4-3
Akinohana	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (60)	2008.03	Ms6	Ms43w 4-3	Ms37e 4-3	Ms31w 4-3	Ms25e 5-2	Ms17e 4-3	Ms12w 1-6
Tsurubayashi	Kise	1993/12/31 (52)	2009.03	Ms8	Ms14w 4-3	Ms12e 5-2	Ms8e 1-6	Ms27e 5-2	Ms19e 4-3	Ms15e 5-2
Kotodaigo	Sadogatake	1993/01/14 (58)	2011.05	Ms4	Ms21w 4-3	Ms16w 4-3	Ms13w 6-1	Ms4e 3-4	Ms8e 2-5	Ms19w 3-4
Tochimaru	Kasugano	1992/08/26 (61)	2011.05	Ms3	Ms7e 2-5	Ms16e 2-5	Ms32e 5-2	Ms20e 6-1	Ms8w 2-5	Ms20e 1-6
Irodori	Shikoroyama	1992/03/10 (64)	2007.03	Ms8	Ms18w 5-2	Ms12w 2-5	Ms29e 3-4	Ms39w 6-1	Ms16w 3-4	Ms24e 4-3
Takemasa	Onomatsu	1993/10/22 (53)	2016.03	Ms8	Ms13e 4-3	Ms10w 4-3	Ms8w 2-5	Ms20w 2-5	Ms33e 4-3	Ms26e 3-4
Ayanoumi	Yamahibiki	1992/03/23 (63)	2007.03	Ms14	Ms33w 1-6	Sd5w 4-3	Ms56e 3-4	Sd11e 4-3	Ms60w 5-2	Ms40w 3-4
Tochinobori	Kasugano	1993/09/01 (55)	2009.03	Ms12	Ms22e 3-4	Ms31e 0-2-5	Sd6w 4-3	Ms56w 5-2	Ms39w 3-4	Ms50w 4-3
Wakayama	Onomatsu	1992/04/26 (62)	2011.07	Ms15	Jd32e 7-0 Y	Sd32e 4-3	Sd16e 3-4	Sd36e 3-4	Sd49e 5-2	Sd18w 5-2

Meanwhile, Ichiyamamoto is back:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.03	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01
Ichiyamamoto	Nishonoseki	1993/10/01	2017.01	Ms21	Jk15e 7-0 Y	Jd10e 6-1	Sd49e 6-1	Ms57w 6-1	Ms26e 4-3	Ms21e 5-2

The first rikishi to join under the extended age limit has been doing surprisingly well for somebody from the collegiate ranks who didn't receive a whole lot of hype coming in (beyond that age limit thing itself anyway). With the late start he didn't quite make it into the makushita top 15 in time for his 24th birthday, but after two basho out he is now set to rejoin our prospect tracking. He's still the same powerful pusher-thruster, and while his physique continues to look a bit short of juryo worthiness, I won't be surprised at all if he does manage to make it up to the sekitori ranks over the next year and a half under our watch. Looking and fighting a bit like Abi, I suspect he'll be pretty popular with the audience if he makes it.

Edited March 5, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,786]

The lineups for Haru 2018:

Tier 1 (Q) - Although their results differed, both Shonannoumi and Ryuko acquitted themselves very well in January and they now find themselves near Ms15. It's an area where any KK will count as a big success at their age. Meanwhile Kotokamatani will hope to step up and join them in the upper section of the division, and new youngest makushitan Tochikodai should find himself challenged big-time. And in the qualifiers' watch, it's Inoue back at a rank where a simple 4-3 kachikoshi would secure his debut in makushita. He's already had six sandanme tournaments in which he was just one win short. (Although all of those six basho saw him miss out early, not in his last match.)

Tier 2 (Q) - As we continue to wait for a new promotion out of Tier 1, the second section slowly gets eroded of members. We're now down to just 11 rikishi here (and the Q list doesn't look like reinforcements are coming), and we're set to lose another promising member as #2 Kiribayama turns 22 after the basho. We might actually lose two if Gokushindo, freshly promoted to Ms4 off his 6-1 record, can break out of his pattern and avoid going makekoshi here. Given who was promoted to juryo after Hatsu, it's quite likely that we'll be seeing a large number of demotions again and any simple kachikoshi above Ms5 might mean promotion.

Tier 3 (Q) - Hakuyozan and Wakatakakage find themselves ranked Ms1 after narrowly missing out on promotion last time, and both are clearly strong contenders again for Haru. Sandanme winner Kaisho joins former sandanme tsukedashi Murata in the extended promotion zone, and Tomokaze stands just outside for what might provide our first clear indication of his sekitori chances.

Tier 4 (Q) - Chiyonoumi has reached a new career-high rank at Ms5, and finally gets the opportunities he got derailed from two years ago. Tsurubayashi and Kizaki didn't quite get promoted into the top 5 ranks, but are high enough that any kachikoshi would set them up for a promotion run in May. Ichiyamamoto finds himself ranked Ms11 and, much like Tomokaze one level above, this basho might help tell us if he's for real. Wakayama has finally made it back to the third division after dropping all the way down to maezumo, so for the first time since Haru 2016 everybody in this section is actually ranked in makushita.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Rounding up the Haru basho results...

Tier 1:

A very decent but not outstanding tournament for our three top prospects. Shonannoumi bounced back from his Hatsu MK with a 4-3 record that was never in doubt, as he streaked out to 4-1 before running into ex-komusubi Jokoryu and highly regarded collegiate Ichiyamamoto. Kotokamatani also returned to winning ways with a 4-3.

Ryuko's year-long debut KK streak came to its end, but I'd say all young rikishi (and their oyakata) would be thrilled to have their very first MK be a 3-4 all the way up at Ms17. As always the follow-up will be important now; we've seen other top high schoolers get mired in mid-makushita after a strong career start, although Ryuko's first year has arguably been a cut above even by those standards.

Hatsu sandanme runner-up and makushita rookie Tochikodai had the expected rough debut, and then some: He first missed three rounds of bouts, and then followed up with a four-match losing streak once he'd joined the tournament. Time to regroup in upper sandanme - but it remains to be seen if he's actually competitive there as the 7-0 promotion after Hatsu bypassed so many ranks which he has yet to prove capable of handling. Last not least Haru basho also ended in kyujo for Kirinoryu.

Heisei Hopefuls for Haru 2018 - Tier 1: Top Talents - current yardstick: Takagenji (1997/05/13, debut 2013.03, shin-juryo 2017.05)
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03
Shonannoumi	Takadagawa	1998/04/08 (3)	2014.03	Ms9	Ms48e 1-6	Sd23e 6-1	Ms44w 6-1	Ms18w 5-2	Ms9e 3-4	Ms13w 4-3
Ryuko	Onoe	1998/06/23 (2)	2017.01	Ms17	Jd31e 6-1	Sd66w 6-1	Sd11w 5-2	Ms50e 5-2	Ms30w 5-2	Ms17w 3-4
Kotokamatani	Sadogatake	1997/11/19 (4)	2015.11	Ms27	Ms46e 4-3	Ms36w 2-5	Ms53w 4-3	Ms45e 5-2	Ms27w 3-4	Ms36w 4-3
Tochikodai	Kasugano	1999/01/09 (1)	2017.03	Ms46	Jk12w 5-2	Jd70e 5-2	Jd27e 5-2	Sd90w 4-3	Sd71w 7-0 D	Ms46e 0-4-3
Kirinoryu	Michinoku	1997/06/13 (5)	2013.03	Ms52	Sd24e 5-2	Ms60e 4-3	Ms52w 1-6	Sd22w 4-3	Sd8e 3-4	Sd22w 2-3-2

Two new talents are joining the quest to become the new youngest sekitori:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03
Inoue	Kise	1999/08/17	2015.03	Sd4	Sd4e 2-5	Sd32w 5-2	Sd7w 3-4	Sd18w 3-4	Sd34w 5-2	Sd8w 5-2
Onokura	Miyagino	1998/06/09	2014.03	Sd47	Sd88e 3-4	Jd9e 4-3	Sd89w 5-2	Sd53w 2-5	Sd79e 5-2	Sd47w 6-1

I highlighted Inoue's several close calls in the Haru intro notes, and the anti-jinx seems to have worked. He's had somewhat of a favourable schedule that led to his 5-2 record, however, comprising three way-past-it guys in their mid-30s, plus four younger opponents with a combined amount of one kachikoshi above their Haru positions. None of them finished the basho better than 4-3. In other words, this lineup of opponents was as upper sandanme as it gets. No matter though, what counts is that the 19-year-old has finally broken through, and he will now be the new youngest rikishi in makushita.

Inoue's results really are quite remarkable so far - he seems to have received no individual coverage at all during his recruitment basho, and while his alma mater Kyushu Gakuin Middle School (together with the associated High School) appears to have a vibrant sports background, going by the huge number of athlete alumni listed on Wikipedia, I don't believe it's particularly notable in sumo beyond the fact that disgraced ex-maegashira Chiyohakuho also attended it. However, he competed as part of the judo club there, not sumo, and in fact it looks like Inoue has made the same move - here he is in some local judo results from back in 2013.

I'm not sure if one would immediately suspect a judo background from his kimarite profile, in any case, which is topped by hatakikomi and oshidashi and features a whopping two yori victories in his 72 shiroboshi. Admittedly that sounds like a Takekaze-style approach to sumo, another guy who did judo originally, but at 180 cm / 140 kg Inoue's arguably quite a bit bigger (if not exactly "tall") than most combo pusher/slapdown rikishi tend to be. He does feature a smattering of fairly unusual throwing and tripping techniques in the middle section of his kimarite list, so there appears to be some technical knowledge transfer from his judo days, albeit probably just as plan B+.

New entrant #2 arrives as a surprise promotion in the Tochikodai mold. I'm not sure where Onokura's Haru 6-1 came from, considering he had only just begun to demonstrate consistent mastery of lower sandanme. One thing's for sure though, he's been hitting the chanko at Miyagino-beya: The 19-year-old is up to 153 kg from his debut weight of 111 kg after just four years, without any additional gains in height. Style-wise there's not much to say - he's a straight-up pusher, with those techniques comprising almost two-thirds of his winning tally and most of the rest some version of slapping down the opponent. Mawashi work ain't his thing, 5 yorikiri (in 89 wins) are the sum total of his success via that route.

Physically Onokura's probably already on par with what's required for makushita, but I'm highly doubtful that the overall package will be enough for now. That said, we know that pushers can be very streaky in their results, so I wouldn't be completely shocked if he debuts in makushita with a small KK; even if he does so, however, the long run will likely be a different matter. He's definitely got to have some talent to be here at age 19, but I feel he's more of a future Tier 3/4 contender for juryo if at all.

Edited May 8, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 2:

This is frequently the red-headed stepchild of our four prospect sections, but this time the 11 rikishi largely did very well in win-loss terms. On a further look, however, it turns out that all but one of the guys who finished 5-2 or better were fighting well below their previously achieved best ranks.

Considering that, the top Tier 2 performance of the basho was undoubtedly delivered by small Midorifuji who went 6-1, only 9 ranks off his career-high. I've recently seen him called "another Ura" or somesuch elsewhere, and while I wouldn't exactly go that far, you've got to give props to somebody who's below the historical 173 cm height minimum and weighs less than 100 kg. That said, it's still miles and miles from a 6-1 at Ms48 to making juryo, and his future opponents in the upper half of makushita will have a lot more experience dealing with unorthodox builds like his.

It's definitely not miles to juryo from Ms4, though, and Gokushindo acquitted himself alright in his debut appearance in the promotion zone, all things considered. His promotion hopes were dashed early with an 0-3 start, but the 3-4 final score is good enough to keep him near the top. (But on a cautionary note: His three wins came against Daiseido, Toyohibiki and Yamaguchi who've all looked terrible in recent tournaments.) Maybe he can continue his odd streak of alternating 6-1's with 3-4's...he'd probably be in juryo by November if he does that.

Ohata provided the most visible highlight of Haru basho in this tier, collecting a surprise sandanme yusho in what was a wide-open competition. Oddly enough, this one result will be enough to make up for the combined 9-19 record he posted in his recent 4-basho MK streak that cost him more than 80 ranks.

Heisei Hopefuls for Haru 2018 - Tier 2: Promising Youngsters - Age 21 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03
Gokushindo	Nishikido	1996/06/06 (13)	2012.03	Ms4	Ms38e 6-1	Ms16e 2-5	Ms31w 6-1	Ms12w 3-4	Ms17w 6-1	Ms4e 3-4
Kiribayama	Michinoku	1996/04/24 (16)	2015.05	Ms10	Ms18e 6-1	Ms10e 3-4	Ms14w 0-1-6	Ms49w 6-1	Ms21w 4-3	Ms16e 2-5
Kaito	Asakayama	1996/06/19 (11)	2012.05	Ms20	Ms20e 2-5	Ms42w 5-2	Ms27w 4-3	Ms22e 2-5	Ms40e 4-3	Ms31e 4-3
Nakazono	Nishonoseki	1996/05/18 (14)	2012.03	Ms11	Ms29e 6-1	Ms11w 0-0-7	Ms51w 4-3	Ms41w 3-4	Ms52w 4-3	Ms44e 5-2
Honda	Nishikido	1997/03/11 (7)	2012.03	Ms42	Sd17w 5-2	Ms54e 2-5	Sd20w 6-1	Ms42e 3-4	Ms54w 4-3	Ms45w 3-4
Nishikifuji	Isegahama	1996/07/22 (10)	2016.09	Ms23	Sd38w 5-2	Sd13e 4-3	Sd2w 4-3	Ms52w 6-1	Ms23w 1-5-1	Ms47w 5-2
Midorifuji	Isegahama	1996/08/30 (9)	2016.09	Ms39	Ms57w 4-3	Ms46w 3-4	Ms57e 4-3	Ms46e 4-3	Ms39e 3-4	Ms48w 6-1
Oki	Shikoroyama	1996/06/12 (12)	2013.07	Ms25	Ms54w 4-3	Ms43w 4-3	Ms36e 5-2	Ms25e 3-4	Ms32w 2-5	Ms53w 5-2
Yamatoarashi	Shikoroyama	1996/05/11 (15)	2012.03	Ms49	Sd18w 4-3	Sd7e 5-2	Ms49e 3-4	Ms59w 2-5	Sd22w 4-3	Sd11e 5-2
Taichiyama	Chiganoura	1997/04/21 (6)	2013.03	Ms45	Sd3w 0-7	Sd53w 4-3	Sd35w 4-3	Sd24w 6-1	Ms45e 0-7	Sd20w 3-4
Ohata	Tokitsukaze	1996/10/24 (8)	2014.11	Ms40	Ms49w 4-3	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1e 2-5	Sd24e 2-5	Sd50w 3-4	Sd66e 7-0 Y

Kiribayama has turned 22 and will be continuing in Tier 3, but his goodbye basho up here turned out rather forgettable at 2-5. A year ago I'd anointed him a very likely sekitori for the near future, but since then he's come off the rails quite badly and (apologies for the mixed metaphor) he'll have to right the ship soon if he doesn't want to end up as one of the many once-promising rikishi populating the makushita career graveyard.

No new rikishi managed to secure entry to Tier 2 in Haru basho.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 3:

Our best two promotion hopes for Haru basho were found in this section, and they didn't let us down: April birthday boy Hakuyozan took the final step needed to cap off the last three years which he'd spent almost entirely in high makushita, and fellow 23-year-old Wakatakakage proved that his yusho in January was no fluke. Congrats to both of them! I'm not totally convinced that lanky Wakatakakage will get to establish himself as a sekitori regular, but Hakuyozan should have all the tools required to become a fixture in juryo and perhaps also in makuuchi before too long. (Of course, barring injury as always.)

Tier 3 was devoid of other obvious highlights this basho, but did feature four more success stories in the shapes of Tomokaze, Takakento, Tochiseiryu and Aomihama, who all finished with 4-3 records at new career-high ranks. It was the 5th straight KK from debut for Tomokaze, so while his speed of advancement appears to be slowing down at last, he's staying on track for now.

Former Sd tsukedashi Murata returned to winning ways as well with a 5-2 record, so once again he has bounced back from a 3-4 with a bigger KK score. Fellow college guy Tanabe also recovered from January's rough makushita debut with a strong 6-1, while Fukuyama from the same Haru 2017 debut class had the expected tough time in his own first makushita basho this time around, finishing just 1-6.

Baraki and Onojo, who had been one-time makushita participants quite a while ago (Hatsu 2014 and Kyushu 2015 respectively), both went 4-3 in high sandanme and have finally earned their return tickets to the third division for another attempt.

January sandanme winner Kaisho returned to upper makushita after a year and a half courtesy of his 7-0 record, but found things rather difficult again and earned only 2 wins. That wasn't entirely unexpected and the more important thing will be to avoid sliding all the way back down to low makushita or even sandanme again, the way many surprising sandanme champions do.

Heisei Hopefuls for Haru 2018 - Tier 3: Still Worth Watching - Age 23 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03
Hakuyozan	Takadagawa	1995/04/13 (25)	2011.05	Ms1	Ms7w 5-2	Ms4e 3-4	Ms8e 3-4	Ms13e 4-3	Ms8w 5-2	Ms1e 6-1
Wakatakakage	Arashio	1994/12/06 (29)	2017.03	Ms1	Sd63w 7-0 Y	Ms38w 6-1	Ms16e 4-3	Ms12e 3-4	Ms17e 7-0 Y	Ms1w 4-3
Kaisho	Asakayama	1995/01/28 (27)	2013.03	Ms12	Ms35w 2-5	Ms55w 5-2	Ms37e 2-5	Ms56e 3-4	Sd8w 7-0 Y	Ms12w 2-5
Murata	Takasago	1994/08/08 (38)	2017.03	Ms8	Sd39e 7-0 D	Ms27e 5-2	Ms16w 3-4	Ms22w 6-1	Ms8e 3-4	Ms13e 5-2
Tomokaze	Oguruma	1994/12/02 (31)	2017.05	Ms18	Mz 3-0	Jk25e 7-0 Y	Jd15e 6-1	Sd53e 7-0 Y	Ms31e 5-2	Ms18e 4-3
Takakento	Takanohana	1996/02/10 (17)	2014.01	Ms20	Ms59e 5-2	Ms39e 3-4	Ms48w 5-2	Ms34w 5-2	Ms24w 4-3	Ms20e 4-3
Tochiseiryu	Kasugano	1995/04/26 (23)	2014.03	Ms20	Sd11e 6-1	Ms35e 4-3	Ms28w 3-4	Ms35w 3-4	Ms47e 6-1	Ms20w 4-3
Kotaro	Fujishima	1995/12/06 (19)	2014.01	Ms14	Ms19w 4-3	Ms15w 2-5	Ms30e 4-3	Ms24w 4-3	Ms19e 3-4	Ms26e 1-6
Kotokuzan	Arashio	1994/03/11 (48)	2009.09	Ms13	Ms37w 2-5	Ms59e 6-1	Ms28e 3-4	Ms34e 6-1	Ms13e 2-5	Ms28e 2-5
Hamayutaka	Tokitsukaze	1995/11/17 (20)	2011.05	Ms17	Ms40w 6-1	Ms17e 3-4	Ms25w 4-3	Ms21e 2-5	Ms37w 4-3	Ms28w 2-5
Asahiryu	Asahiyama	1995/04/22 (24)	2016.05	Ms23	Ms31w 4-3	Ms24e 3-4	Ms34e 5-2	Ms23e 3-4	Ms28e 3-4	Ms37w 4-3
Aomihama	Dewanoumi	1994/10/27 (34)	2010.03	Ms41	Ms57e 2-5	Sd24w 5-2	Ms59w 4-3	Ms48w 3-4	Ms60e 5-2	Ms41w 4-3
Kotoinagaki	Sadogatake	1994/05/14 (42)	2016.03	Ms48	Sd9e 2-5	Sd40w 2-5	Sd72w 6-1	Sd17w 5-2	Ms56e 4-3	Ms48e 3-4
Fukamiyama	Onoe	1994/11/12 (33)	2010.03	Ms47	Sd12e 4-3	Sd1w 3-4	Sd19e 4-3	Sd7e 2-5	Sd36w 6-1	Ms51w 3-4
Kotonoshu	Sadogatake	1994/07/01 (40)	2010.03	Ms53	Sd40w 5-2	Sd15e 3-1-3	Sd35e 4-3	Sd23w 3-4	Sd41w 6-1	Ms54w 2-5
Fukuyama	Fujishima	1995/03/23 (26)	2017.03	Ms56	Jk3w 6-1	Jd33e 6-1	Sd68w 6-1	Sd13e 4-3	Sd2w 4-3	Ms56e 1-6
Chiyonokatsu	Kokonoe	1994/04/13 (47)	2013.03	Ms57	Sd8w 2-5	Sd38e 5-2	Sd12w 3-4	Sd26e 4-3	Sd10w 4-3	Ms59w 4-3
Musashikuni	Musashigawa	1994/12/17 (28)	2013.07	Ms26	Ms53e 2-5	Sd21w 4-3	Sd8e 4-3	Ms57e 4-3	Ms49e 3-4	Sd2e 4-3
Hokutokawa	Hakkaku	1994/08/15 (37)	2013.03	Ms31	Ms46w 5-2	Ms31e 3-4	Ms42w 2-5	Sd2w 5-2	Ms43w 2-5	Sd3w 5-2
Baraki	Shikihide	1994/05/10 (44)	2013.01	Ms58	Sd65w 3-4	Sd84w 5-2	Sd49w 4-3	Sd31w 2-5	Sd62w 6-1	Sd8e 4-3
Onojo	Takadagawa	1996/01/31 (18)	2011.05	Ms60	Sd27e 3-4	Sd48e 3-4	Sd70e 4-3	Sd51e 5-2	Sd20w 4-3	Sd9e 4-3
Itadaki	Isenoumi	1994/09/05 (36)	2010.03	Ms56	Ms56w 2-5	Sd23w 5-2	Ms59e 3-4	Sd11w 4-3	Ms60w 3-4	Sd10e 4-3
Kotohayato	Sadogatake	1994/04/18 (46)	2010.03	Ms48	Ms48w 3-4	Ms58e 3-4	Sd14w 2-5	Sd39w 6-1	Ms53e 2-5	Sd12e 4-3
Tanabe	Kise	1994/05/12 (43)	2017.03	Ms55	Jk6e 6-1	Jd35e 6-1	Sd71w 6-1	Sd16w 5-2	Ms55e 2-5	Sd12w 6-1
Kirinofuji	Michinoku	1994/07/28 (39)	2011.01	Ms46	Sd44e 5-2	Sd17e 3-4	Sd41e 4-3	Sd27e 6-1	Ms46e 1-6	Sd14w 4-3
Matsuda	Minezaki	1994/09/19 (35)	2013.03	Ms53	Jd21e 4-3	Jd1w 4-3	Sd82e 7-0 D	Ms53w 0-7	Sd28w 4-3	Sd19w 3-4
Saidaiji	Irumagawa	1994/06/09 (41)	2013.01	Ms47	Sd33w 2-5	Sd64e 6-1	Sd9w 5-2	Ms47w 2-5	Sd7e 3-4	Sd20e 6-1
Tsuyukusa	Otake	1994/12/06 (29)	2016.09	Ms51	Jd33e 7-0 D	Sd35w 3-4	Sd57w 2-5	Sd79w 7-0 D	Ms51e 1-5-1	Sd22e 4-3
Tamakongo	Kataonami	1995/09/19 (22)	2014.03	Ms25	Ms25w 0-7	Ms60w 1-6	Sd39w 6-1	Ms53e 3-4	Sd5w 2-5	Sd30e 3-4
Yutakasho	Sakaigawa	1994/11/19 (32)	2013.03	Ms49	Sd32w 6-1	Ms49w 2-5	Sd15e 4-3	Sd3e 2-5	Sd32w 3-4	Sd50e 4-3
Nishiyama	Onoe	1994/04/27 (45)	2010.03	Ms22	Ms60w 4-3	Ms50e 3-4	Sd4w 3-4	Sd14e 1-6	Sd51e 0-1-6	Jd12e 5-2
Shuji	Kise	1995/10/24 (21)	2014.03	Ms54	Sd23e 3-4	Sd46e 4-3	Sd33w 3-4	Sd47w 0-0-7	Jd8e 0-0-7	Jd79e 0-0-7

Four prospects have turned 24 recently and only one of them will get the two-year extension into Tier 4: Kotokuzan secured the required Ms15+ appearance at nearly the last minute back in January, but I'm not sure it'll matter for the half-Filipino rikishi - his track record thus far arguably doesn't point towards a future sekitori career as he's still rather far away from the required level, probably too far for the 3-4 years of development time he still has left (let alone the two years he'll get under our official watch). I hope I'm wrong, as he's somebody I've been following since before he made makushita.

The other three are sadly an even easier call. Chiyonokatsu and Kotohayato haven't even progressed past the Ms-Sd elevator zone yet, and Nishiyama's performance has declined rather badly since his mid-makushita high point of two and a half years ago, so it would be a major surprise to see them get to Ms15 in the next couple of years, to say nothing of juryo.

One new guy is incoming for Natsu:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03
Shoji	Musashigawa	1994/08/25	2017.07	Sd21		Mz 3-0	Jk25w 7-0 Y	Jd15w 7-0 Y	Sd21e 3-4	Sd37e 6-1

He's already been covered some, largely because of his unusual background as a former student in the national (rather than private) university system. Shoji's reported sumo results from high school and the collegiate circuit painted him as a competent but not hugely talented rikishi, and while that didn't stop him from winning the two lowest divisional yusho against the typically subpar competition down there, it wasn't a huge surprise to see his KK streak end already in January in sandanme. Very nice 6-1 bounceback though, and so he's joining us in makushita after all. Due to his 24th birthday approaching soon he'll only be getting two basho under our watch, and I don't think there's much of a chance that he'll make it to Ms15 this quickly to get transferred to Tier 4. But whether he's good enough to make Ms15 at any point might become clear over his next 14 matches.

There's certainly no arguing with his physical tools. At 190 cm the usual saying "you can't teach height" applies to him in spades, and he should still have room to add some more weight to his current (reasonably athletic-looking) 143 kg. Technique will be the making or breaking of him, and so far he has looked relatively unspectacular in that department, with his biggest attribute seemingly a heavy dose of dohyo intelligence that enables him to patiently wait for opportunities to strike if a bout doesn't immediately go his way.

 

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 4:

Much like Tier 2, lots of pretty-looking records by rikishi competing far below their previously demonstrated levels. Not part of this club was Chiyonoumi who actually wrestled at his best ever ranking, and very nearly secured promotion to juryo with his 5-2 record. Ichiyamamoto matched Chiyonoumi's performance with 5 wins of his own for his 7th straight kachikoshi since debuting, and he'll now be getting his first opportunity in the promotion zone as well.

They'll be joined by Kizaki, seemingly the new specialist for middle-of-the-road records. Just like in January he managed to rally to KK from a 2-3 record, so it doesn't really look as though he's ready to break out and conquer juryo, but it might not stop him from simply getting there soon.

Kotodaigo finally arrested his three-basho slide, and he did so in a big way with 6 wins. That said, Ms27 is arguably a level where he should be performing like that, so it won't end up meaning much unless the Natsu follow-up is strong, too. Tsurubayashi, meanwhile, bounced off in the single-digit ranks again, but 3-4 (with a chance to KK) was still a marked improvement over his 1-6 first attempt last year.

On the other hand it was yet another basho to forget for Tochimaru, who was a serious contender for juryo barely over a year ago, but is now on his second 3-MK slide since then, and he will even drop to sandanme this time. Ouch. I wonder how it's all gone wrong so quickly.

Heisei Hopefuls for Haru 2018 - Tier 4: Last Chance Saloon - Ms15+ Age 25 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.05	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03
Chiyonoumi	Kokonoe	1993/01/11 (57)	2015.05	Ms5	Ms26w 4-3	Ms22e 2-5	Ms39e 5-2	Ms27w 6-1	Ms10e 4-3	Ms5e 5-2
Tsurubayashi	Kise	1993/12/31 (49)	2009.03	Ms6	Ms12e 5-2	Ms8e 1-6	Ms27e 5-2	Ms19e 4-3	Ms15e 5-2	Ms6w 3-4
Kizaki	Kise	1993/05/06 (55)	2016.03	Ms3	Ms9e 4-3	Ms7e 5-2	Ms3w 3-4	Ms7e 3-4	Ms11e 4-3	Ms7e 4-3
Ichiyamamoto	Nishonoseki	1993/10/01 (52)	2017.01	Ms11	Jd10e 6-1	Sd49e 6-1	Ms57w 6-1	Ms26e 4-3	Ms21e 5-2	Ms11e 5-2
Wakamotoharu	Arashio	1993/10/05 (51)	2011.11	Ms5	Ms9w 3-4	Ms14e 3-4	Ms18w 5-2	Ms11e 4-3	Ms6w 3-4	Ms12e 4-3
Tamaki	Takasago	1993/05/29 (54)	2016.01	Ms10	Ms20w 3-4	Ms30w 4-3	Ms23e 5-2	Ms15e 4-3	Ms10w 3-5	Ms19e 5-2
Irodori	Shikoroyama	1992/03/10 (62)	2007.03	Ms8	Ms12w 2-5	Ms29e 3-4	Ms39w 6-1	Ms16w 3-4	Ms24e 4-3	Ms19w 5-2
Kotodaigo	Sadogatake	1993/01/14 (56)	2011.05	Ms4	Ms16w 4-3	Ms13w 6-1	Ms4e 3-4	Ms8e 2-5	Ms19w 3-4	Ms27e 6-1
Takemasa	Onomatsu	1993/10/22 (50)	2016.03	Ms8	Ms10w 4-3	Ms8w 2-5	Ms20w 2-5	Ms33e 4-3	Ms26e 3-4	Ms33w 5-2
Akinohana	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (58)	2008.03	Ms6	Ms37e 4-3	Ms31w 4-3	Ms25e 5-2	Ms17e 4-3	Ms12w 1-6	Ms35e 5-2
Tochinobori	Kasugano	1993/09/01 (53)	2009.03	Ms12	Ms31e 0-2-5	Sd6w 4-3	Ms56w 5-2	Ms39w 3-4	Ms50w 4-3	Ms40e 5-2
Tochimaru	Kasugano	1992/08/26 (59)	2011.05	Ms3	Ms16e 2-5	Ms32e 5-2	Ms20e 6-1	Ms8w 2-5	Ms20e 1-6	Ms41e 2-5
Ayanoumi	Yamahibiki	1992/03/23 (61)	2007.03	Ms14	Sd5w 4-3	Ms56e 3-4	Sd11e 4-3	Ms60w 5-2	Ms40w 3-4	Ms51e 3-4
Wakayama	Onomatsu	1992/04/26 (60)	2011.07	Ms15	Sd32e 4-3	Sd16e 3-4	Sd36e 3-4	Sd49e 5-2	Sd18w 5-2	Ms58w 3-4

Three departures here as well, and while Ayanoumi and Wakayama won't be troubling the kesho-mawashi makers in the future, I still haven't quite given up hope on Irodori eventually making it. He debuted all the way up in Tier 1 in Hatsu 2011 (alongside Chiyootori...), and has been an upper-mid makushita regular for no less than 6 years now, and it might not take that much to turn him into a rikishi who can at least grab a cup of coffee in juryo. Come on, don't let Randomitsuki's sanyaku projection (as Matsumoto) be your biggest claim to fame!

No new entries for Natsu here.

Edited May 9, 2018 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,786]

We're down to 57 tracked rikishi, the lowest total ever in the 8 years this feature has been running. It's not really for a lack of talented young rikishi though, IMHO, more just a fluky combination of the high Haru departure rate - 6 rikishi reaching the age cutoffs in the same basho is extremely rare - plus the recent success rate of rikishi in fact getting to the sekitori ranks, which after all is what we're actually hoping to see here, not just guys endlessly circling in makushita. We've had 17 "prospect" juryo debuts over the last 10 basho, a number that compares quite favourably with the past. (The previous three 10-basho periods had 13, 13 and 15 promotions respectively.)

Anyway, the lineups for Natsu 2018:

Tier 1 (Q) - The biggest storyline of the basho will arguably be Inoue's makushita debut. He hasn't exactly been crushing upper sandanme opposition, so KK is far from assured here, but I'm hopeful. He's unlikely to get into the "who will be the next youngest sekitori?" conversation at this point, of course - that still looks to be a three-way race between Shonannoumi, Ryuko and Kotokamatani. All of them had a decent showing in March and will hope to build on that with another positive result to demonstrate continued improvement.

Tier 2 (Q) - It's going to get very empty here very soon - we're already down to 10 tracked rikishi, and half of them happen to turn 22 over the next six weeks which will send them on to Tier 3. Reinforcements are also unlikely as the less than impressive Q list shows. (Maybe Torakio soon.) Anyway...we've got two main areas of interest here this time: Gokushindo will attempt to further establish himself in top makushita to earn another shot at promotion to juryo in the near future, and small Midorifuji will want to show that his Haru 6-1 was no fluke and that he's in fact got future sekitori potential.

Tier 3 (Q) - No rikishi in the top 5 ranks here for Natsu, so a promotion out of this tier is unlikely. Murata has taken the top spot and looks to avoid continuing his recent alternation of KK and MK records, while Tomokaze is now #2 with his debut KK streak still intact...can he keep going? In addition, some eyes will be on makushita debutant Shoji. And in the list of potential qualifiers we find Kizakiumi, last basho's sandanme tsukedashi starter from Nihon University, who can secure promotion to makushita with another 6-1. Shikona change note: Fujishima-beya's Kotaro is now Bushozan.

Tier 4 (Q) - Our tier of choice for promotion interest this basho with 3 rikishi in the top 5 ranks. Chiyonoumi was slotted in at Ms1w and should need only a simple kachikoshi, while Kizaki (Ms4e) and Ichiyamamoto (Ms5e) will likely require 5 wins to be part of the conversation and 6 to have a strong shot. Freshly promoted Wakatakakage's older brother Wakamotoharu, Kotodaigo, Tsurubayashi and Tamaki round out an interesting top 15 zone for Natsu basho - all of these have a strong enough pedigree and/or track record that they wouldn't look out of place in juryo at some point in the future.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Time to summarize the Natsu basho results...

Tier 1:

A tournament without any real highlights for our main prospects. Kotokamatani was the arguable top performer, scoring 4 wins near his career-high rank to continue his slow march through makushita. Shonannoumi again demonstrated that he's our #1 prospect in ranking terms, as he only fell to makekoshi in his last match of the basho, making it his third straight tournament that he's been either 4-3 or 3-4 in the extended promotion zone. At this point it's all about gaining more experience at this level, so this is nice to see.

Ryuko, who had looked like our top candidate on pure talent thus far, unfortunately had a rather forgettable basho in which he was makekoshi by Day 10, his second straight MK after his career-opening kachikoshi streak. That can happen to the best of them, but Nagoya will now be an important juncture; he'll be ranked in an area that he should easily be able to handle, so another setback would be rather disconcerting and might put him into that unfortunate group I talked about last time, promising high-schoolers who start off very hot but suddenly get mired in mid-makushita.

No major surprises in how our two tier debutants fared in May. Both Inoue and Onokura finished with just 2 wins to book a ticket back to sandanme. I think I'd have to rate Onokura's performance as the better one as his previously demonstrated level was well off from his Natsu position, so a 2-5 is in line with reasonable expectations, while Inoue has already had plenty of experience near the Ms/Sd border and a 3-4 wouldn't have been out of the norm. His second win only came in his final match, against an opponent who finished 0-7 and retired after the basho, so it's not even a particularly good 2-5.

The prospect duo who already was ranked in sandanme for May also didn't have any shock results. Kirinoryu's 6-1 is a welcome sight, but it came at a level that he had already left behind for a couple of years, so it's not a huge surprise, and the more interesting part is that he'll be getting another crack at makushita for Nagoya basho. Tochikodai struggled to a second makekoshi, also not too unusual as he returns to more familiar stomping grounds after his fluky 7-0 in January. The next basho should see him in a more competitive area again, but it's likely to be a little while before he becomes a "real" prospect fighting in makushita on the regular.
 

Heisei Hopefuls for Natsu 2018 - Tier 1: Top Talents - current yardstick: Takagenji (1997/05/13, debut 2013.03, shin-juryo 2017.05)
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03	2018.05
Shonannoumi	Takadagawa	1998/04/08 (5)	2014.03	Ms9	Sd23e 6-1	Ms44w 6-1	Ms18w 5-2	Ms9e 3-4	Ms13w 4-3	Ms11w 3-4
Ryuko	Onoe	1998/06/23 (3)	2017.01	Ms17	Sd66w 6-1	Sd11w 5-2	Ms50e 5-2	Ms30w 5-2	Ms17w 3-4	Ms26e 2-5
Kotokamatani	Sadogatake	1997/11/19 (6)	2015.11	Ms27	Ms36w 2-5	Ms53w 4-3	Ms45e 5-2	Ms27w 3-4	Ms36w 4-3	Ms28e 4-3
Inoue	Kise	1999/08/17 (1)	2015.03	Ms50	Sd32w 5-2	Sd7w 3-4	Sd18w 3-4	Sd34w 5-2	Sd8w 5-2	Ms50e 2-5
Onokura	Miyagino	1998/06/09 (4)	2014.03	Ms58	Jd9e 4-3	Sd89w 5-2	Sd53w 2-5	Sd79e 5-2	Sd47w 6-1	Ms58e 2-5
Tochikodai	Kasugano	1999/01/09 (2)	2017.03	Ms46	Jd70e 5-2	Jd27e 5-2	Sd90w 4-3	Sd71w 7-0 D	Ms46e 0-4-3	Sd22e 2-5
Kirinoryu	Michinoku	1997/06/13 (7)	2013.03	Ms52	Ms60e 4-3	Ms52w 1-6	Sd22w 4-3	Sd8e 3-4	Sd22w 2-3-2	Sd45e 6-1

Another interesting rikishi is set to join for Nagoya:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03	2018.05
Satoyama	Hakkaku	2000/07/24	2016.03	Sd52	Jd49w 5-2	Jd9e 4-3	Sd89e 5-2	Sd52w 3-4	Sd68w 3-4	Sd85e 7-0 D

Satoyama the younger (with a long 'o' unlike the ex-sekitori veteran) comes to us as the latest youngster with a rather fluky makushita debut, and the very first to be born in the year 2000. Congrats! He had a bit of success at the regional level in middle school, but otherwise wasn't overly noteworthy coming into professional sumo. A quick advance towards his personal wall at the jonidan/sandanme border led into a year and a half with relatively little further upwards movement, until this surprise breakout performance.

That being said, he had to beat well-regarded high school rookies Kototebakari and Naya en route to this 7-0 record, so he didn't have the easy ride some other low sandanme zensho rikishi have lucked into on occasion. Still, I would be stunned if he has suddenly turned into a makushita-quality rikishi already, and a results arc like Tochikodai's is probably more likely for the next few tournaments.

Anyway, he's a relatively short and somewhat stocky guy (currently listed as 177 cm / 123 kg, barely changed from his debut numbers), and he likes to get into close combat in order to push out his opponents with short, quick shoves before they have a chance to start working on the mawashi. Yorikiri does feature as his #2 winning kimarite, but I suspect many of these were of the "no hands on mawashi, but full-body contact" type, i.e. what would lead to sukuinage if a throw were to be executed from the position, rather than a force-out. It's an interesting style to watch, but I suspect he'll need to build his physique a bit more before it plays at the makushita level.

(On a sidenote: The national middle school tournament that was mentioned in the linked shindeshi post apparently wasn't the one Akinomaki referenced, but rather this one. Sato(yama) "reached the finals" of the individual competition in the sense that he qualified for the knockout rounds after the preliminary bouts. However, he went out in the last 64 there, losing against an opponent who proceeded to reach the semifinals.)

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 2:

Gokushindo struck again, bouncing back from a 3-4 makekoshi with impressive 6 wins as is his wont. His sumo looked patient and controlled in Natsu basho, and if he can build on that for Nagoya he'll have a good chance of securing his sekitori debut. (If he can avoid the 3-4 this time...) At 5-0 he was even in the midst of the makushita yusho race, getting stopped only by the eventual yusho winner Kiribayama.

There were no other major highlights, but it was still a fairly successful basho for this group of prospects, capped by Kaito and Yamatoarashi scoring strong 5-2's near their career-highs. Nakazono also went 5-2 and will be back near his own top position for Nagoya, exactly one year after he had to sit out the basho there and fell sharply down the rankings.

Our Haru top performer Midorifuji had the expected rough ride in his first upper-half appearance and can probably be content with the 2 wins he got, allowing him to regroup at a position for Nagoya that's likely still going to be a challenge, but a manageable one.
 

Heisei Hopefuls for Natsu 2018 - Tier 2: Promising Youngsters - Age 21 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03	2018.05
Gokushindo	Nishikido	1996/06/06 (15)	2012.03	Ms4	Ms16e 2-5	Ms31w 6-1	Ms12w 3-4	Ms17w 6-1	Ms4e 3-4	Ms7w 6-1
Midorifuji	Isegahama	1996/08/30 (11)	2016.09	Ms20	Ms46w 3-4	Ms57e 4-3	Ms46e 4-3	Ms39e 3-4	Ms48w 6-1	Ms20w 2-5
Kaito	Asakayama	1996/06/19 (13)	2012.05	Ms20	Ms42w 5-2	Ms27w 4-3	Ms22e 2-5	Ms40e 4-3	Ms31e 4-3	Ms24e 5-2
Nakazono	Nishonoseki	1996/05/18 (16)	2012.03	Ms11	Ms11w 0-0-7	Ms51w 4-3	Ms41w 3-4	Ms52w 4-3	Ms44e 5-2	Ms27e 5-2
Nishikifuji	Isegahama	1996/07/22 (12)	2016.09	Ms23	Sd13e 4-3	Sd2w 4-3	Ms52w 6-1	Ms23w 1-5-1	Ms47w 5-2	Ms30w 4-3
Oki	Shikoroyama	1996/06/12 (14)	2013.07	Ms25	Ms43w 4-3	Ms36e 5-2	Ms25e 3-4	Ms32w 2-5	Ms53w 5-2	Ms37e 3-4
Ohata	Tokitsukaze	1996/10/24 (10)	2014.11	Ms40	Ms40e 2-5	Sd1e 2-5	Sd24e 2-5	Sd50w 3-4	Sd66e 7-0 Y	Ms41w 3-4
Yamatoarashi	Shikoroyama	1996/05/11 (17)	2012.03	Ms49	Sd7e 5-2	Ms49e 3-4	Ms59w 2-5	Sd22w 4-3	Sd11e 5-2	Ms51w 5-2
Honda	Nishikido	1997/03/11 (9)	2012.03	Ms42	Ms54e 2-5	Sd20w 6-1	Ms42e 3-4	Ms54w 4-3	Ms45w 3-4	Ms55e 4-3
Taichiyama	Chiganoura	1997/04/21 (8)	2013.03	Ms45	Sd53w 4-3	Sd35w 4-3	Sd24w 6-1	Ms45e 0-7	Sd20w 3-4	Sd34w 4-3

As mentioned before the basho we're losing half the Tier 2 membership to Tier 3 this time. It's starting to get rather empty now, and of course only Tier 1 can do something about that. Gokushindo is obviously the highest-profile departure and it's a bit of a shame that he won't be competing for his juryo debut from up here.

No new additions to Tier 2 for Nagoya.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 3:

With so many rikishi it's usually a mixed bag in here, and Natsu basho was no exception. Kiribayama, freshly in from Tier 2, did what I hoped for before the basho and finally got back on track after a year marred by injury and underperformance; this 7-0 has arguably been the best or second-best result of his career (next to the 6-1 he scored up at Ms18 a year ago) and it will propel him straight into promotion contention for the first time.

Also making his first trip to the promotion zone will be Murata, who streaked to 6 straight wins after a shonichi loss to fellow Ms7 Gokushindo from Tier 2. A 6-1 record was also scored by Kotoinagaki in high sandanme, good enough to jump way past his previous career-high rank on the next banzuke.

The list of promising Natsu results is rounded out by a bunch of 4-3's at career-highs, namely for Tomokaze (still on straight KKs after six basho), Aomihama and Tanabe. Takakento and our sole makushita debutant Shoji got close but had to settle for 3-4 scores.

Last not least an unlikely award for a prospect became part of the Natsu records as Shuji returned to action after three off-basho and easily collected the jonokuchi yusho, his second already. The other one came off an injury descent two years ago as well. He followed that up with the jonidan yusho, and he'll be a candidate for the double this time, too.
 

Heisei Hopefuls for Natsu 2018 - Tier 3: Still Worth Watching - Age 23 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03	2018.05
Murata	Takasago	1994/08/08 (39)	2017.03	Ms7	Ms27e 5-2	Ms16w 3-4	Ms22w 6-1	Ms8e 3-4	Ms13e 5-2	Ms7e 6-1
Tomokaze	Oguruma	1994/12/02 (31)	2017.05	Ms13	Jk25e 7-0 Y	Jd15e 6-1	Sd53e 7-0 Y	Ms31e 5-2	Ms18e 4-3	Ms13e 4-3
Takakento	Takanohana	1996/02/10 (19)	2014.01	Ms14	Ms39e 3-4	Ms48w 5-2	Ms34w 5-2	Ms24w 4-3	Ms20e 4-3	Ms14w 3-4
Tochiseiryu	Kasugano	1995/04/26 (25)	2014.03	Ms15	Ms35e 4-3	Ms28w 3-4	Ms35w 3-4	Ms47e 6-1	Ms20w 4-3	Ms15w 2-5
Kaisho	Asakayama	1995/01/28 (28)	2013.03	Ms12	Ms55w 5-2	Ms37e 2-5	Ms56e 3-4	Sd8w 7-0 Y	Ms12w 2-5	Ms26w 2-5
Asahiryu	Asahiyama	1995/04/22 (26)	2016.05	Ms23	Ms24e 3-4	Ms34e 5-2	Ms23e 3-4	Ms28e 3-4	Ms37w 4-3	Ms29w 3-4
Aomihama	Dewanoumi	1994/10/27 (34)	2010.03	Ms33	Sd24w 5-2	Ms59w 4-3	Ms48w 3-4	Ms60e 5-2	Ms41w 4-3	Ms33w 4-3
Kiribayama	Michinoku	1996/04/24 (18)	2015.05	Ms10	Ms10e 3-4	Ms14w 0-1-6	Ms49w 6-1	Ms21w 4-3	Ms16e 2-5	Ms35w 7-0 Y
Tanabe	Kise	1994/05/12 (44)	2017.03	Ms36	Jd35e 6-1	Sd71w 6-1	Sd16w 5-2	Ms55e 2-5	Sd12w 6-1	Ms36w 4-3
Saidaiji	Irumagawa	1994/06/09 (42)	2013.01	Ms42	Sd64e 6-1	Sd9w 5-2	Ms47w 2-5	Sd7e 3-4	Sd20e 6-1	Ms42w 2-5
Hamayutaka	Tokitsukaze	1995/11/17 (22)	2011.05	Ms17	Ms17e 3-4	Ms25w 4-3	Ms21e 2-5	Ms37w 4-3	Ms28w 2-5	Ms45w 3-4
Hokutokawa	Hakkaku	1994/08/15 (38)	2013.03	Ms31	Ms31e 3-4	Ms42w 2-5	Sd2w 5-2	Ms43w 2-5	Sd3w 5-2	Ms47e 3-4
Shoji	Musashigawa	1994/08/25 (37)	2017.07	Ms52	Mz 3-0	Jk25w 7-0 Y	Jd15w 7-0 Y	Sd21e 3-4	Sd37e 6-1	Ms52e 3-4
Musashikuni	Musashigawa	1994/12/17 (29)	2013.07	Ms26	Sd21w 4-3	Sd8e 4-3	Ms57e 4-3	Ms49e 3-4	Sd2e 4-3	Ms52w 5-2
Bushozan	Fujishima	1995/12/06 (21)	2014.01	Ms14	Ms15w 2-5	Ms30e 4-3	Ms24w 4-3	Ms19e 3-4	Ms26e 1-6	Ms56e 4-3
Baraki	Shikihide	1994/05/10 (45)	2013.01	Ms58	Sd84w 5-2	Sd49w 4-3	Sd31w 2-5	Sd62w 6-1	Sd8e 4-3	Ms59e 3-4
Onojo	Takadagawa	1996/01/31 (20)	2011.05	Ms59	Sd48e 3-4	Sd70e 4-3	Sd51e 5-2	Sd20w 4-3	Sd9e 4-3	Ms59w 0-1-6
Itadaki	Isenoumi	1994/09/05 (36)	2010.03	Ms56	Sd23w 5-2	Ms59e 3-4	Sd11w 4-3	Ms60w 3-4	Sd10e 4-3	Ms60e 3-4
Kotoinagaki	Sadogatake	1994/05/14 (43)	2016.03	Ms48	Sd40w 2-5	Sd72w 6-1	Sd17w 5-2	Ms56e 4-3	Ms48e 3-4	Sd2e 6-1
Kirinofuji	Michinoku	1994/07/28 (40)	2011.01	Ms46	Sd17e 3-4	Sd41e 4-3	Sd27e 6-1	Ms46e 1-6	Sd14w 4-3	Sd4e 4-3
Fukamiyama	Onoe	1994/11/12 (33)	2010.03	Ms47	Sd1w 3-4	Sd19e 4-3	Sd7e 2-5	Sd36w 6-1	Ms51w 3-4	Sd8w 2-5
Tsuyukusa	Otake	1994/12/06 (30)	2016.09	Ms51	Sd35w 3-4	Sd57w 2-5	Sd79w 7-0 D	Ms51e 1-5-1	Sd22e 4-3	Sd9e 3-4
Kotonoshu	Sadogatake	1994/07/01 (41)	2010.03	Ms53	Sd15e 3-1-3	Sd35e 4-3	Sd23w 3-4	Sd41w 6-1	Ms54w 2-5	Sd14w 4-3
Fukuyama	Fujishima	1995/03/23 (27)	2017.03	Ms56	Jd33e 6-1	Sd68w 6-1	Sd13e 4-3	Sd2w 4-3	Ms56e 1-6	Sd19e 5-2
Matsuda	Minezaki	1994/09/19 (35)	2013.03	Ms53	Jd1w 4-3	Sd82e 7-0 D	Ms53w 0-7	Sd28w 4-3	Sd19w 3-4	Sd30w 5-2
Yutakasho	Sakaigawa	1994/11/19 (32)	2013.03	Ms49	Ms49w 2-5	Sd15e 4-3	Sd3e 2-5	Sd32w 3-4	Sd50e 4-3	Sd35w 4-3
Tamakongo	Kataonami	1995/09/19 (24)	2014.03	Ms25	Ms60w 1-6	Sd39w 6-1	Ms53e 3-4	Sd5w 2-5	Sd30e 3-4	Sd43e 4-3
Shuji	Kise	1995/10/24 (23)	2014.03	Ms54	Sd46e 4-3	Sd33w 3-4	Sd47w 0-0-7	Jd8e 0-0-7	Jd79e 0-0-7	Jk11e 7-0 Y

For the second straight time we're losing four rikishi to the age cutoff at once, and this time there's not even a Tier 4-eligible rikishi among them.

Tanabe hasn't fulfilled the early promise of last year, when he was still widely assumed to be nearly equal in skill to classmate Enho, but we should still get to see him in Tier 4 eventually as getting to the top 15 makushita ranks within the next couple of years ought to be doable for him. I'm less optimistic about his chances to become sekitori.

Kotoinagaki has been competing at lower ranks than Tanabe, but may well be the better prospect. The former junior national champion in freestyle wrestling remains a work in progress, as his athletic chops are not in doubt and more competitive sumo experience may be all he needs to shine. He'll be making his debut in the upper half of makushita in Nagoya, and I for one will continue to keep an eye on him, until we can hopefully welcome him back as a Tier 4 member before too long.

The other duo are almost certainly handing in their prospect badges for good, however. Having made it merely to borderline makushita status by the time of their 24th birthday, it's extremely unlikely that Saidaiji and Baraki will be getting anywhere near a juryo promotion challenge in the future.

Prospect spots will be newly filled by these two in turn:

Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03	2018.05
Shingaku	Otake	1994/09/20	2013.11	Sd12	Sd59w 4-3	Sd41w 0-0-7	Jd1w 0-0-7	Jd72e 7-0 D	Sd71w 6-1	Sd16w 5-2
Kizakiumi	Kise	1995/05/05	2018.03	Sd40					Sd100Td 6-1	Sd40e 6-1

There's not much I can really say about Shingaku. He's only two basho away from turning 24 as well, so it's likely going to be a short-lived prospect stint for him. He's another short and stocky rikishi at 171 cm / 125 kg whose physique hasn't got any larger since his 2013 debut out of high school (albeit nearly a year later than most others of his class). He was apparently good enough to win at the prefectural level, but of course that doesn't mean that much unless we're talking about powerhouse prefectures like Saitama, Ishikawa or Aomori. His kimarite profile is one of the stranger ones I've seen lately, with almost equal proportions of yorikiri, oshidashi and hatakikomi victories.

Kizakiumi is obviously the much more interesting debutant this time. The highly regarded collegiate was allowed to make his debut as sandanme tsukedashi and has thus far done as well as one would expect from a rookie afforded that privilege. Both 6-1 records started off with 6 straight wins before he was taken out of the yusho race on Day 13 by fellow contenders. (Neither bout was a straight-up yusho decider though, his two opponents both went to playoffs afterwards.)

The usual caveat applies, of course: Measuring high-level amateur competitors by what they do below makushita usually doesn't have much of a point. Having watched his first two sets of professional bouts, I must admit I'm not that bullish on his future prospects. He's very competent at his preferred oshi-zumo and his physique is alright (although he's rather short), but he's without any real flair to his sumo that would set him apart from other sekitori-quality rikishi.

It's still some way from low makushita to juryo, but I would guess we'll see him follow older brother Churanoumi into the paid ranks by the end of 2019 at the latest. Not a university guy who will join the likes of Endo and Mitakeumi in challenging for the higher honours of sumo though, IMHO, and I'm not sure I'd bet on him being equal to previous SdTd's Asanoyama and Yutakayama either, who have found their home in the mid-to-low maegashira ranks for now.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Tier 4:

And speaking of Churanoumi (having competed as Kizaki), here he is as one of our two promotion-clinching prospects of Natsu basho. 4 wins at Ms4 often aren't enough to go to juryo, but a sufficient number of slots opened up for him to make it this time. He's only marginally taller than his brother and less heavy at this point (though he's added some 10 kg to his debut weight of 126 kg from two years ago), but I find his sumo to be a lot more well-rounded and if he can make further gains on the physical side I think Churanoumi will turn out to be a maegashira regular eventually, though some Tsurugisho-like time in juryo may be in his immediate future for now.

He's being joined on the way up by Chiyonoumi, another former upper-level contender on the university circuit. Owing to his major elbow injury from two years ago he's had a rather weird path to juryo  - he's now already 18 basho into his career but has only had one real makekoshi. I'm very high on his energetic style, which reminds me a bit of early-career Yoshikaze, and I'm hopeful that he'll be able to establish himself as a sekitori now.

And we might soon be getting another juryo debut in this section as Ichiyamamoto also went 4-3 in the promotion zone to extend his debut KK streak to 8 tournaments. He'll be ranked high enough for Nagoya that he could conceivably earn his promotion with another 4 wins. Wakamotoharu also booked a return to the top 5 ranks courtesy of his 5-2 Natsu record, as he continues to try to catch back up to younger brother Wakatakakage.
 

Heisei Hopefuls for Natsu 2018 - Tier 4: Last Chance Saloon - Ms15+ Age 25 and under
Rikishi	Heya	DOB	Debut	HiRk	2017.07	2017.09	2017.11	2018.01	2018.03	2018.05
Chiyonoumi	Kokonoe	1993/01/11 (55)	2015.05	Ms1	Ms22e 2-5	Ms39e 5-2	Ms27w 6-1	Ms10e 4-3	Ms5e 5-2	Ms1w 4-3
Kizaki	Kise	1993/05/06 (53)	2016.03	Ms3	Ms7e 5-2	Ms3w 3-4	Ms7e 3-4	Ms11e 4-3	Ms7e 4-3	Ms4e 4-3
Ichiyamamoto	Nishonoseki	1993/10/01 (50)	2017.01	Ms5	Sd49e 6-1	Ms57w 6-1	Ms26e 4-3	Ms21e 5-2	Ms11e 5-2	Ms5e 4-3
Wakamotoharu	Arashio	1993/10/05 (49)	2011.11	Ms5	Ms14e 3-4	Ms18w 5-2	Ms11e 4-3	Ms6w 3-4	Ms12e 4-3	Ms10e 5-2
Kotodaigo	Sadogatake	1993/01/14 (54)	2011.05	Ms4	Ms13w 6-1	Ms4e 3-4	Ms8e 2-5	Ms19w 3-4	Ms27e 6-1	Ms10w 4-3
Tsurubayashi	Kise	1993/12/31 (47)	2009.03	Ms6	Ms8e 1-6	Ms27e 5-2	Ms19e 4-3	Ms15e 5-2	Ms6w 3-4	Ms11e 2-5
Tamaki	Takasago	1993/05/29 (52)	2016.01	Ms10	Ms30w 4-3	Ms23e 5-2	Ms15e 4-3	Ms10w 3-5	Ms19e 5-2	Ms12e 4-3
Takemasa	Onomatsu	1993/10/22 (48)	2016.03	Ms8	Ms8w 2-5	Ms20w 2-5	Ms33e 4-3	Ms26e 3-4	Ms33w 5-2	Ms17w 0-1-6
Akinohana	Takadagawa	1992/11/30 (56)	2008.03	Ms6	Ms31w 4-3	Ms25e 5-2	Ms17e 4-3	Ms12w 1-6	Ms35e 5-2	Ms19e 5-2
Tochinobori	Kasugano	1993/09/01 (51)	2009.03	Ms12	Sd6w 4-3	Ms56w 5-2	Ms39w 3-4	Ms50w 4-3	Ms40e 5-2	Ms24w 2-5
Kotokuzan	Arashio	1994/03/11 (46)	2009.09	Ms13	Ms59e 6-1	Ms28e 3-4	Ms34e 6-1	Ms13e 2-5	Ms28e 2-5	Ms45e 6-1
Tochimaru	Kasugano	1992/08/26 (57)	2011.05	Ms3	Ms32e 5-2	Ms20e 6-1	Ms8w 2-5	Ms20e 1-6	Ms41e 2-5	Sd5e 0-0-7

No new entrants here in Tier 4.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Another drop in the total number of our tracked prospects, from 57 to 54. But it's still not for lack of talent, quite the opposite in fact; no less than 5 of them are ranked at Ms5+ and are thus gunning for promotion to juryo this basho, the most we've had in two years.

Here are the tier lineups for Nagoya 2018:

Tier 1 (Q) - This is the closest that Kotokamatani has been to the #1 prospect spot since he lost it to Shonannoumi a year ago. It's of course also a new career-high rank for Sadogatake-oyakata's son, so perhaps the race to become the next youngest sekitori has been reset now. Quite possibly the bigger storyline will be Ryuko though, who will be looking for a strong basho after his recent back-to-back MK setback. Satoyama makes his makushita debut after his massive 7-0 promotion and will likely have his hands full at this level; my usual judgement applies here, anything better than 1-6 will be a success.

I'd also like to direct your attention to the possible new qualifiers this basho, a list that includes recent high school debutants Tsukahara, Hoshoryu, Kototebakari and Naya, all within 6-1 distance of a promotion to makushita.

Tier 2 (Q) - We're entering the final year of Tier 2 as currently constituted; our youngest sekitori Takagenji turns 22 in May next year, and if nobody in Tier 1 has managed to succeed him by then, we'll have a merged Tier 1+2 for Nagoya 2019. Anyway, we're already down to just 5 members now, and another 2 of them will be shuffled down to Tier 3 after the basho, namely the Isegahama duo Nishikifuji and Midorifuji. They're also the two highest-ranked rikishi in this section, so things may become somewhat uninteresting here after Nagoya, especially as the Q list of potential additions continues to not look all that promising for quick reinforcements.

Tier 3 (Q) - This is probably where the action will be in Nagoya basho. Tier 3 is led by Murata, Gokushinho and Kiribayama, all of whom scored 6 or 7 wins in May and who now occupy positions among the first 3 makushita ranks, quite possibly just one small kachikoshi away from juryo. Tomokaze has dropped from #2 to #4 in this group, but his KK streak remained intact in Natsu basho, and he'll look to add another positive record and perhaps even put his shikona into the promotion zone for September as well. And of course there's also Kizakiumi in his makushita debut - will he be good enough to play a role in the yusho race for the third straight basho, even at this level? Another five rikishi are going to be dropped for age reasons here after Nagoya, with only Murata set to move to Tier 4 (if he's not headed to juryo, of course).

Tier 4 (Q) - And here's the second part of the prospect promotion race with Ichiyamamoto and Wakamotoharu also holding top 5 spots. Kotodaigo is in the single digits again, back from his three-MK slide, while Tamaki is ranked this high for the first time. Tochimaru, who was absent in May, turns 26 next month and will have an ignominious end to his prospect tenure down in sandanme.

I'll be rather disappointed if we don't see at least two promotions out of our five candidates.

[Ack! 433]

For those of you who have been missing updates on this thread, here is a link to a Sumo database query that approximates the data presented -- but without Asashosakari's helpful commentary.  http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&columns=6&showbirthdate=on&showhighest=on&form1_basho_nr=6&form1_year=2020&form1_month=3&form1_ms=on&sort_by=birthdate&offset=100

Edited April 23, 2020 by Ack!