The new Ozeki - Kotooshu, Hakuho and who else?

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Kisenosato

Tochiozan

I still have hopes for Ama, too.

Baruto, eventually

Edited January 13, 2007 by Yubiquitoyama

[Kintamayama 47,232]

Miyabiyama

Houmashou

Tochiouzan

Baruto (if he's still healthy)

Ichihara-undecided yet-haven't seen enough of him. See Kushimaumi..

I never believed in Kisenosato or Kotoshougiku, although I'm beginning to rethink the latter.. Rohou? Not in a million years. Mickey?If he goes 12-3 this time, I'm willing to start the countdown.

In any case, no one during 2007, for sure.

[Asashosakari 20,250]

That works out to 4.01 expected new Ozeki just from those 8 guys...pretty optimistic, I'd say.

I take it you are not a gambler. (Sign of disapproval...) Doesn't work like that.

Well, you said "here are the odds as I see them", which to me means odds that you think reflect objective reality, not just odds that reflect public perception. I agree there's a huge difference. But book-making odds aren't terribly useful for a substantive discussion, wouldn't you agree?

At any rate, even for book-making odds I'd say you're aiming way high...I'd easily reject all bets except the one on Kisenosato, and it's not even particularly close on any of the others.

Edited January 13, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,250]

In support of my belief that 1/5 odds (=83%) on Kisenosato making Ozeki within 3 years are probably a fair bet:Youngest at sanyaku debut

Shikona	Age	Basho	Rec	HR	Ozeki	San->O
Takahanada	18y 10m	1991.07	11-4	Y	1993.03	1y 8m
Kitanoumi	19y 7m	1973.01	4-11	Y	1974.03	1y 2m
Hakuho	19y 9m	2005.01	11-4	(O)	2006.05	1y 4m
Wakachichibu	19y 11m	1959.03	2-13	S	---	---
Kisenosato	19y 11m	2006.07	8-7	(K)	?	?
Taiho	20y 0m	1960.07	11-4	Y	1961.01	0y 6m
Onishiki	20y 1m	1973.11	3-12	K	---	---
Musashiyama	20y 5m	1930.05	6-5	Y	1932.02	1y 9m
Hoshi	20y 6m	1984.01	9-6	Y	1986.09	2y 8m
Takanohana	20y 6m	1970.09	9-6	O	1972.11	2y 2m
Asashoryu	20y 6m	2001.05	8-7	Y	2002.09	1y 4m
Fujinokawa	20y 7m	1967.05	7-8	S	---	---

Edited January 13, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Bishonohana 0]

In the next three years, my picks for Ozeki are:

Homasho

Kisenosato

Roho

[stunny 0]

if Baruto can make it..... he need to survive first...

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

Which of our candidates has even come close to meeting these requirement?

Why, Kotomitsuki of course. He had a 13-2 (yusho), 9-6, 12-3 run. Started from M2, but that's close enough.

Miyabiyama's 10-14-10 run just last year seems to be quickly forgotten, as well.

Of course Miyabiyama too, but he never was mentioned, and as the question was for "our candidates", I omitted him.

[Kotobaru 0]

At this point of time I would like to pick Kotoshogiku for the most promising for this year. Few bashos ago I didn't even notice him, then he did two 10-5 bashos and he's 9 wins strike at the end of last basho was impressive and gino-sho honestly earned. He seems to be motivated and eager as Ama. I hope the at the end of this basho Sekiwake and Komusubi slots will be open and he can take one of these. Homasho and Kakuryu are the second chances to go, but possibly next year. Homasho is guy to like (Bow...) he looks so honest and dutiful I think it's easy to be his oyakata. Kakuryu game to center slots of Makuuchi with huge Banzuke-luck and I was sure he conna disappear to Juryo (Happy goodbyes...) with the same 'luck'. I was so wrong (Sign of approval...)

After second day I should have placed Baruto for sure with Kotoshogiku. He did very good start and has improved his tachi-ai. Now I'm not so sure anymore (Going kyujo...) and his attitude toward the injury is not very serious. If it's going to happen over and over again, then the best he can do is to hang in Makuuchi for a while, might be even getting temporary Sanyaku but not 11-12 wins in 3 consecutive bashos. He is able for it for sure, I believe he's sumo is improving basho by basho, but the knee. It seems he just doesn

[Asashosakari 20,250]

Which of our candidates has even come close to meeting these requirement?

Why, Kotomitsuki of course. He had a 13-2 (yusho), 9-6, 12-3 run. Started from M2, but that's close enough.

Miyabiyama's 10-14-10 run just last year seems to be quickly forgotten, as well.

Of course Miyabiyama too, but he never was mentioned, and as the question was for "our candidates", I omitted him.

That's what I meant, sorry to be unclear. "Quickly forgotten" in that he was never mentioned in the early thread at all, to my surprise.

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

Would do I think could make ozeki in the next three years?

I think Hakuho will make Ozeki this year : He will lost his Ozeki rank this month and will win the next Haru Basho as a Sekiwake and the Natsu as an Ozeki, but will not be the next Yokozuna after the May basho because he wins only 1 Yusho as an Ozeki (Sign of approval...)

[sekihiryu 51]

At this point of time I would like to pick Kotoshogiku for the most promising for this year. Few bashos ago I didn't even notice him, then he did two 10-5 bashos and he's 9 wins strike at the end of last basho was impressive and gino-sho honestly earned.

March last year I watched some intense Sadogatake Beya keiko between Shogi and Miki. Miki was comprehensively dispatching Shogi in a series of full effort bouts. I will again watch Sadogatake Keiko in March and will watch with interest the how much the gap has closed between those two.

Ichihara is a wildcard - I have seen him at the Amaworlds and was impressed and so far he has looked nothing but a champion in the few bouts in Ozumo.

He is like Ichiro Suzuki: the best player in Japan who went to the major league in the US and became arguably the best player there.

Ichihara is the Ichiro of Sumo - with the John Wayne Swagger.

Tochiozan has a "special" sticker on him, he could go far.

Gagamaru and Tochinoshin show lots of long term promise, they should at the least reach the same rank as their countryman Kokkai.

Edited January 14, 2007 by sekihiryu