Best chance to make makuuchi?

[messi19 0]

Mongolians Mokonami, Koryu and Hakuba are three rikishi pretty similar in terms of where they stand at this point of their careers. Koryu and Mokonami are almost the same age (23) while Hakuba is a year older. While Mokonami made it to sekitori earlier than the other two, he also has been the only one temporarily dropping back to Makushita for a short two-basho stint.

I have not included Hoshihikari among the bunch as I imagine most would consider him capable of success in makuuchi while these three are no sure-fire candidates.

Any bets on who will make it first or at all?

Edited December 6, 2007 by messi19

[kaiguma 0]

Mongolians Mokonami, Koryu and Hakuba are three rikishi pretty similar in terms of where they stand at this point of their careers. Koryu and Mokonami are almost the same age (23) while Hakuba is a year older. While Mokonami made it to sekitori earlier than the other two, he also has been the only one temporarily dropping back to Makushita for a short two-basho stint.

I have not included Hoshihikari among the bunch as I imagine most would consider him capable of success in makuuchi while these three are no sure-fire candidates.

Any bets on who will make it first or at all?

Interesting topic. I remember how fantastic was Mokonami's sekitori debut! But after that, quite disappointing. Seeing his lousy performances since then, not seeming to live up to his potential, and perhaps suffering from too much weight gained too fast, I have no hope for him to reach Makuuchi. If he does by banzuke luck I cannot imagine him holding on for a 2nd basho. But then maybe his debut will give another spark!

Hakuba I had much hope for, but now he is quite overshadowed by Hoshihikari. Between Hakuba and Koryu is quite the toss-up. I'd probably side with Hakuba since he has loads of technical skill to outweigh Koryu's size advantage. Koryu seems very inconsistent, but when having a strong basho he looks very powerful.

I doubt Koryu can get KK from his estimated J2E in Hatsu. 6 or 7 wins. Hakuba however is guaranteed a high KK from an estimated J9E. 11 wins hopeful, and 9 at the very least. Also keep in mind that he seemed seriously injured last basho and still managed 5 wins at J2W. Each win was a great struggle. He is certainly a never-say-die type of rikishi.

(Incidentally, I have Mokonami ranked J7E for Hatsu, not benefiting one jot from banzuke luck in contrast to Koryu, who gains 3 "extra ranks" by being only 2 ranks ahead of Mokonami with equal records. I would have to flip a coin to guess whether he will make his 8 next basho.)

[Kintamayama 47,232]

I'm pretty sure all three will make it, as I think there hasn't been a Mongolian rikishi to date who peaked at Juryo. Moukonami was injured and dropped to Makushita, but I think he'll be the first up, and Hakuba and Kouryuu will do it together-at the same basho-not really soon, but in a year's time, I venture all three will be in makuuchi.

Steak time grandioso.

[messi19 0]

Different opinions so far - very interesting!

The thing I noticed about Koryu ever since he made juryo is that he seems to be quite streaky. A 7-bout winning streak in March was followed by a 7-bout losing streak in the next basho. In Nagoya he won 9 out of his 11 last bouts and had another nice 4-bout winning streak to finish 2007 in style.

As kaiguma pointed out, he can look very powerful when on such a positive streak.

Hatsu will be his first basho from direct makuuchi promotion zone while Mokonami and Hakuba have had a shot, but ended up MK - Hakuba of course struggling with injuries at the time.

[Asashosakari 20,252]

I'm pretty sure all three will make it, as I think there hasn't been a Mongolian rikishi to date who peaked at Juryo.

I wouldn't be surprised if one of these three (well, four with Hoshihikari) will be the first. Of course, if you had asked me a year ago, I would have said that Ryuo will clearly be the first Mongolian not to make it out of juryo...I still struggle to understand how he got to makuuchi with what was really pretty pedestrian juryo-level sumo. Of course, the same argument can be made for Asofuji, Ryuho and Daimanazuru - all lucky to have made it during a serious lull in quality in juryo the last year or two. I think things will be a bit more competitive going forward.

Anyway, oshi-zumo being streaky as it is, I guess my very own adoptee Koryu will be in makuuchi at some point, though I doubt he'll be any better than Ryuo. Hoshihikari looks good too, just based on his highly unorthodox style. I'm less optimistic about the other two...if I was in dire need of a steak, I'd say Hakuba will be the one who doesn't make it.

Edited December 6, 2007 by Asashosakari

[Asojima 2,874]

I am sad to say that Mokonami is my choice to be the one that will remain behind. He has the body and mannerisms of my all time hero Wajima when he first came up, and I had high hope for him. He has not developed a good ring sense, and, as someone else mentioned about a year ago, he seems to lack upper body strength. If he makes it to makuuchi, it will be by banzuke luck, and he will only last one basho. Hoshi and Hakuba will make it. Koryu just came onto my radar, and I am only moderately impressed with him.

P.S. I also thought Hakuho would never make it past Sekiwake.

Edited December 6, 2007 by Asojima

[Azumashida 1]

I'd say Koryu is clearly the most powerful and least technical of the three, but that is probably no news to anyone. IMHO he'll make makuuchi before the other two, but I don't think he'll get highest. I see Hakuba (as well as Kirinowaka, but that's OT in this thread) as a spiritual son of Kirishima and therefore I've had the feeling he could go pretty far. Especially if he starts using the same "recipe" as his oyakata did to become ultramuscular (whatever that recipe was)...

Edited December 6, 2007 by Azumaryu

[Randomitsuki 2,900]

This is probably my first post not revolving around numbers (Neener, neener...).

I found Mokonami the most impressive of the three throughout the year. I was wondering why he didn't rise higher - sumo sense or any other quality that is imperceptible to me might be responsible.

I was not impressed by Hakuba. He sometimes wins with spectacular moves and surprising twists, but he loses pretty often in a slightly embarrassing way. Reminds me of Satoyama.

As for Koryu, I found him very impressive in Aki Basho, but only so-so in other basho this year.

While my sense for numbers tells me that all will reach Makuuchi eventually, I could only imagine Mokonami to become a mainstay.

[kaiguma 0]

I'm pretty sure all three will make it, as I think there hasn't been a Mongolian rikishi to date who peaked at Juryo. Moukonami was injured and dropped to Makushita, but I think he'll be the first up, and Hakuba and Kouryuu will do it together-at the same basho-not really soon, but in a year's time, I venture all three will be in makuuchi.

Steak time grandioso.

First, I assume you are bypassing rikishi peaking in makushita or lower? This must tie in to the Juryo>>>Makuuchi promotion ratio : Are Mongolians really running close to 100% ???

I knew Mokonami was injured as he fell out of Juryo, so I didn't mean to sound to dismissive. But since then I haven't heard of continuing injuries and he just seems a shadow of himself form the Juryo debut. Is this a self-confidence issue, the fire (desire) went out, or the injuries are still lingering? Can anyone answer definitively?

(edit: promotion ratio)

Edited December 7, 2007 by kaiguma

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

Mongolian who peaked in juryo, never (to this day, that is) to gain promotion to makuuchi? In addition to those three mentioned, only Hoshihikari and we know how fresh an arrival he is. :-) Intriguing, actually.

Edited December 7, 2007 by Kotoseiya Yuichi

[Kintamayama 47,232]

Mongolian who peaked in juryo, never (to this day, that is) to gain promotion to makuuchi? In addition to those three mentioned, only Hoshihikari and we know how fresh an arrival he is. :-) Intriguing, actually.

What I'm saying is I don't remember any Juryo Mongolians (other than the four you mentioned, since they are the subject of this thread's speculation and of course haven't made it yet..) that did not make it to Makuuchi. I specifically guessed that the three (Hoshihikari was out of the equation, but I'll add him now so there won't be any confusion, so FOUR..) WILL make it, and keep up the 100% in success.

[Kintamayama 47,232]

First, I assume you are bypassing rikishi peaking in makushita or lower? This must tie in to the Juryo>>>Makuuchi promotion ratio : Are Mongolians really running close to 100% ???

Yes, I mean those that made it to Juryo, not all Mongolian rikishi like Dewahikari and Ako who are languini somewhere in Sandanme/Jonidan.

[aderechelsea 125]

Hakuba will be the first (i hope he is not injured) ...

Hoshihikari sometime in the future (needs to bulk up a bit more).

[ilovesumo 12]

They all (and I include Hoshihikari and Ryuo) can and will (in a while).

For Hakuba's injured leg (terribly injured adere), probably better to stay down for a while longer. Koryu is........just watch his bouts and you know :-) His niramiai is priceless.

Moko is also bothered with injuries...Makuuchi is a hard place to fight in.

Hoshi will reach Makuuchi in 2008 for sure. Ryuo had been there, will return.

I wonder about Sogokurai etc. There are some more diamonds hidden in the under divisions.

Good luck guys.

Edited December 7, 2007 by ilovesumo