Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Kyushu 2025

[Reonito 1,814]

Since it's been mooted—what happens if Sadanoumi retires before the banzuke meeting? Would they save Mita or Himukamaru with a win, or promote Seihakuho with a win?

[Gurowake 4,164]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

Since it's been mooted—what happens if Sadanoumi retires before the banzuke meeting? Would they save Mita or Himukamaru with a win, or promote Seihakuho with a win?

Going strictly by the numbers, it looks like Himukamaru with a win ties Mita, and both would be ahead of Seihakuho, so my guess is Seihakuho wouldn't get the benefit and it would be one of the first two.  I think it would be incredibly stupid to save a 5-10 J13 vs. a 4-3 Ms5, numbers be damned, but they seem very inclined to follow the numbers rather than make judgement calls.

[Vancouver BC Sumo Fan 71]

37 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Since it's been mooted—what happens if Sadanoumi retires before the banzuke meeting? Would they save Mita or Himukamaru with a win, or promote Seihakuho with a win?

Wait, whoa, is there a rumour Sadanoumi may retire?

[Reonito 1,814]

6 minutes ago, Vancouver BC Sumo Fan said:

Wait, whoa, is there a rumour Sadanoumi may retire?

I've seen it suggested that he may not want to fight in juryo, but he's been there recently enough that I'd guess he'll give it a go.

[Bunbukuchagama 998]

21 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I've seen it suggested that he may not want to fight in juryo, but he's been there recently enough that I'd guess he'll give it a go.

Who was the last one to retire right after dropping to Juryo? They all seem to try to squeeze a bit more salary out of their careers; dropping to Makushita (or getting close to it) is when a lot of veterans pull the trigger.

[Reonito 1,814]

7 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Who was the last one to retire right after dropping to Juryo? They all seem to try to squeeze a bit more salary out of their careers; dropping to Makushita (or getting close to it) is when a lot of veterans pull the trigger.

Hokuseiho? Oh wait.

Seriously though, looks like Tochiozan was the last one, though I'm not 100% confident this query is right.

[Vancouver BC Sumo Fan 71]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

I've seen it suggested that he may not want to fight in juryo, but he's been there recently enough that I'd guess he'll give it a go.

Ah, ok, I understand. We'll see then. I think he'd try to get a few more bashos in with his salary. I just don't wanna see the old guy retire.

[Gurowake 4,164]

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Who was the last one to retire right after dropping to Juryo? They all seem to try to squeeze a bit more salary out of their careers; dropping to Makushita (or getting close to it) is when a lot of veterans pull the trigger.

Ichinojo almost fits the bill, but i think he was done regardless of where he was ranked.  Okinoumi retired actually before his drop to Juryo was confirmed, and he retired mid basho with no wins in the double digit maegashira area.  Chiyotairyu was similar, but he actually had some wins in the basho he retired.

[Reonito 1,814]

Looks like Yoshikaze too.

[WAKATAKE 2,769]

The judging department has announced that they will be having a meeting to discuss Aonishiki. Takadagawa however said that the details cannot be discussed right now, meaning we don't know if he gets promoted on just an 11-4 or if he wins the yusho

https://www.nikkansports.com/battle/sumo/news/202511220001479.html

 

[Jakusotsu 6,426]

6 hours ago, Reonito said:

Seriously though, looks like Tochiozan was the last one, though I'm not 100% confident this query is right.

There might be some other cases with immediate retirement where the subject wasn't on the Juryo banzuke anymore.

[Reonito 1,814]

34 minutes ago, Jakusotsu said:

There might be some other cases with immediate retirement where the subject wasn't on the Juryo banzuke anymore.

Yeah exactly, no sure how to look for those.

[Tigerboy1966 1,670]

All quite straightforward in the end:

Promoted: Asanoyama, Asahakuryu, Hatsuyama

Demoted: Meisei, Sadanoumi, Shonanoumi

Bad luck for Kotoeiho, Fujiseiun and Daiseizan who all got promotable scores but will have to try again in January.

[Tigerboy1966 1,670]

It's particularly tough on Fujiseiun who has missed out twice in a row after a 10-5 from j5w in September.

[Hakumadashi 28]

The Banzuke Gods have been very cruel in recent months. Takayasu gets to go from Komusubi to Sekiwake with a run of 6-9, 7-8, 8-7, meanwhile the Fujiseiun situation you mentioned, and Kotoeiho has gone 8-7, 9-6 from J2e and isn't getting out of Juryo. Daiseizan in the meantime was at J1e and went 7-8, 9-6, and will end up at J2 I assume (I haven't done a full Banzuke yet but this seems clear unless I missed something at a glance)

[Asashosakari 20,323]

2 hours ago, Hakumadashi said:

The Banzuke Gods have been very cruel in recent months. Takayasu gets to go from Komusubi to Sekiwake with a run of 6-9, 7-8, 8-7 (...)

He did have a 10-5 in between the two MK.

[Asashosakari 20,323]

Juryo/makushita by the numbers:

Day 15

Hidenoumi   W  J9e   5-10   safe

               Rank  W-L    calcs to   queue
Mita           J3e   0-3-12   Ms4e      2nd
Hakuyozan   L  J10e  4-11     Ms3e      4th
Himukamaru  W  J13e  5-10     Ms4e      3rd
Shiden         J14e  5-7-3    Ms5e      1st

Kyokukaiyu     Ms1w  5-2      J12w      2nd
Dewanoryu   L  Ms3w  5-2      J14w      3rd
Seihakuho   W  Ms5w  4-3      Ms4w      4th
Kazuma         Ms15w 7-0      auto      1st

Well, if nothing else we did get the closest possible outcome for that fourth slot, thanks to Seihakuho pulling out the kachikoshi while Hakuyozan dropped his last four bouts. I still don't expect it to make any difference, though. Dewanoryu was defeated by Tochimusashi, and he just might have cost himself as many as three spots on the next banzuke: He's obviously no longer going to move ahead of Kyokukaiyu, but I also wouldn't be totally surprised if he's now behind Kazuma and (boo, hiss) even behind Hakuyozan.

As Hidenoumi saved himself altogether against hapless Hitoshi, it's a neat four-and-four in the next table putting the queues against each other:

      Down Queue         Rk Diff     W-L Diff         Up Queue
Shiden      J14e  5-7-3   automatic promotion   Kazuma      Ms15w 7-0
Mita        J3e   0-3-12  12.5   <  15+3 = 18   Kyokukaiyu  Ms1w  5-2
Himukamaru  J13e  5-10     4.5   <   5+3 =  8   Dewanoryu   Ms3w  5-2
Hakuyozan   J10e  4-11     9.5   >   7+1 =  8   Seihakuho   Ms5w  4-3

What can I say, it's not even particularly close there in the last row.

[Gurowake 4,164]

So the sanyaku picture looks pretty clear with Aonishiki being promoted, Kirishima and Takayasu as Sekiwake, Oho as Komusubi, and either Ichiyamamoto or Wakamotoharu as the other Komusubi.  As I indicated previously, despite Ichiyamamoto being theoretically better by the numbers, I don't think he'll be given a spot over someone with a KK in the joi who calculates only a single slot behind him.  They would have to really weigh that final day head-to-head as being meaningful and overcome the bias against both promotions from outside the joi and for those without sanyaku experience against someone who is both in the joi and has sanyaku experience.

[Gurowake 4,164]

There's a fairly big hole in the banzuke in the mid maegashira area.  Fujinokawa, Gonoyama, Tokihayate and Roga are likely to get out-sized promotions into the high single digits.  That's followed closely by 6 guys who are calculating to M12.  Oshoma and Shodai, despite being one rank different with the same record, could easily end up very far apart from each other based on how crowded the banzuke is in the area they land, plus some potential bias for Oshoma being in the joi.

Edited Sunday at 17:13 by Gurowake

[Wakawakawaka 219]

^ GTB: Guess the M7-M13 train wreck edition?

Otherwise looks pretty clean, the K1w coin flip, whichever order one wants to put Tamawashi - Atamifuji - Daieisho, and maybe who gets M17w?

That is assuming of course the Aonishiki Ozeki promotion is official?

Edited Sunday at 17:10 by Wakawakawaka

[Gurowake 4,164]

There's good reason to believe that we'll see another 8-7 not get a promotion in Juryo next basho - Kotoeiho belongs 3 slots ahead of Fuijseiun, so it doesn't seem reasonable to promote Fujiseiun one slot, keeping him ahead of Kotoeiho who also would only get a one slot promotion despite having a better record, when they just had a 8-7 nonpromotion last basho (and Hidenoumi a while ago failed to get a promotion at the same rank/record).

[Gurowake 4,164]

Asakoryu, Asanoyama, and Asahakuryu all being in the same general area of the banzuke next time, and that area being near the bottom of the division, means that they will on average get opponents higher ranked than everyone else around them, as there are two forbidden opponents for each ranked right near them and they would be facing the few that will be ranked below them regardless so there's nowhere to go but up.  I suppose it means that if there are Juryo exchange bouts they might be slightly more likely to be chosen for them, but that's not usually how that works.

Edited Sunday at 17:17 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,164]

14 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Oshoma and Shodai, despite being one rank different with the same record, could easily end up very far apart from each other

I also just noticed that Hiradoumi also has a 4-11 only 3 slots above Oshoma, and the gap between them could also expand, depending on how nicely they treat each of them relative to the guys I pointed out that are likely to get big promotions.

[Gurowake 4,164]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Bad luck for Kotoeiho, Fujiseiun and Daiseizan who all got promotable scores but will have to try again in January.

At least Daiseizan lost his match.  If he had won, there would have been some terrible decisions to make about how to order the guys with promotable records that would be staying in Juryo, which might have led them to promote Daiseizan in favor of Oshoumi.  Unless they would have done that in such a situation, they'd have to either 1) demote Fujiseiun, 2) not promote Kotoeiho even a single slot with a 9-6, or 3) have Daiseizan's win mean absolutely nothing, ranking him behind both of them.  It's good that they can just go with the third option there and not worry about it too much.

[Bunbukuchagama 998]

12 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

I also just noticed that Hiradoumi also has a 4-11 only 3 slots above Oshoma, and the gap between them could also expand, depending on how nicely they treat each of them relative to the guys I pointed out that are likely to get big promotions.

It could be as much as 4 ranks.