Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Aki 2025

[Reonito 1,773]

It depends on the sumo, too—they were planning to have a board meeting to discuss Takakeisho's promotion but called it off after he got absolutely rag-dolled by Goeido on day 15.

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

Theoretical question: Aonishiki will be top four next time, so the yokozuna will be out of his hair until the final days. Let's say twelve wins is where they'll seriously think about it but might still say no. Is promotion in any of these situations more likely than the others?

• 12-0, loses out (both Y and either Koto or Oho)
• 11-1, leading or tied for lead; loses to both Y, wins day 15
• 10-2, second place, beats one Y, wins day 15
• 9-3, on the edge of contention, beats both Y, wins day 15

Assume no yusho. Maybe JY, but that depends on everyone else.

Edited Tuesday at 20:04 by Sumo Spiffy

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

2 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

12-0, loses out (both Y and either Koto or Oho)

This should be impossible, the last 3 days would be Onosato, Hosh, KTZ (in reverse order). Oho shouldn't be in the picture at that point. Still, a strong performance confirming his incredible reliability and high floor.

9-10 wins is not going to do it no matter what. I wouldn't count on 11 either if he loses to both Y. If he beats one of them - maybe, but still very shaky. 

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

52 minutes ago, Reonito said:

It depends on the sumo, too—they were planning to have a board meeting to discuss Takakeisho's promotion but called it off after he got absolutely rag-dolled by Goeido on day 15.

Let's assume Onosato blasts him out as usual - would it mean anything? 

Because I don't see anybody else clearly embarrassing him.

[Reonito 1,773]

26 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Theoretical question: Aonishiki will be top four next time, so the yokozuna will be out of his hair until the final days. Let's say twelve wins is where they'll seriously think about it but might still say no. Is promotion in any of these situations more likely than the others?

Hard to say, they didn't promote Baruto after this:

Day 1		oshidashi	M3e Hokutoriki 0-1 (3-12)	7-3
Day 2		oshidashi	M3w Kisenosato 2-0 (9-6)	8-2
Day 3		yorikiri	K1w Kakuryu 1-2 (7-8)	9-3
Day 4		fusen	S1w Chiyotaikai 0-4	7[-1]-5
Day 5		yorikiri	O2w Kaio 2-3 (9-6)	3-5
Day 6		oshidashi	K1e Kotoshogiku 2-4 (6-9)	6-6
Day 7		sukuinage	Y1e Hakuho 6-1 (12-3)	1-11
Day 8		yorikiri	O1w Harumafuji 6-2 (10-5)	6-7
Day 9		yoritaoshi	O1e Kotooshu 7-2 (9-6)	5-7[-1]
Day 10		oshidashi	M1e Toyonoshima 4-6 (8-7)	8-1
Day 11		shitatenage	Y1w Asashoryu 10-1 (13-2)	0-9
Day 12		yorikiri	M2e Goeido 6-6 (7-8)	5-3
Day 13		oshidashi	M6w Aminishiki 9-4 (11-4)	6-3
Day 14		osakate	M4e Kakizoe 6-8 (6-9)	2-2
Day 15		uwatedashinage	M5w Kyokutenho 8-7	6-4

 

[Reonito 1,773]

17 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Let's assume Onosato blasts him out as usual - would it mean anything? 

Because I don't see anybody else clearly embarrassing him.

I think losing to Goeido, who was very much on the downslope of his checkered ozeki career and finished 9-6 with a fusen, in completely embarrassing fashion in the final bout of the basho left a particularly bad taste.

[Bunbukuchagama 964]

18 minutes ago, Reonito said:

they didn't promote Baruto after this:

Was there a (semi)-official reason for that? Maybe his 9-win dip in the middle of the run?

[Sumo Spiffy 661]

1 hour ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

This should be impossible, the last 3 days would be Onosato, Hosh, KTZ (in reverse order). Oho shouldn't be in the picture at that point.

Unless Koto is out with an injury. 

[Reonito 1,773]

58 minutes ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Was there a (semi)-official reason for that? Maybe his 9-win dip in the middle of the run?

Before my time; I can only point you to Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baruto_Kaito

I'm sure others here can chime in.

[Reonito 1,773]

On 29/09/2025 at 12:01, Asashosakari said:

FWIW, I've decided to chicken out on a proper guess and wait to see if maaaybe Takarafuji calls it quits before the banzuke-making session. But yeah, it's the 12 guys you mentioned + Daiamami who are in the running for those 10 spots, so definitely a crowded area this time. (Conversely, the full top 15 look quite empty, I only found 27 proper candidates for that at first glance yesterday.)

Well, you called it, it's still 12 guys for 10 spots but that's better than 13.

[Akinomaki 41,748]

The Sponichi guess for sanyaku and makuuchi promotions http://www.sponichi.co.jp/sports/news/2025/10/01/kiji/20251001s00005000095000c.html

They think that the day 15 bouts Takayasu-Kirishima and Takanosho-Wakatakakage were sanyaku deciders, and from recent experience, expect Takayasu to remain as komusubi, and Hakuoho not be promoted. They don't give a direct guess of who will be the 2nd sekiwake, only that Oho and Takanosho will return to sanyaku, and in that order, Oho is the one for sekiwake.

Takerufuji, Nishikigi and Hitoshi to go down, but 5 with records to go up. Fujiseiun and Asahakuryu will likely be left out. Even Hitoshi might stay after winning his final bout against Meisei. Judging from recent developments, his record is more than enough to remain, but in this case of a mass of proper promotion candidates, it is unlikely that he will. If he does, Chiyoshoma will be left out, or, highly unlikely, Meisei will go down.

Edited Thursday at 22:47 by Akinomaki

[Reonito 1,773]

21 minutes ago, Akinomaki said:

The Sponichi guess for sanyaku and makuuchi promotions

Hard to argue with any of it

[Heather82Cs 11]

I am curious, does anyone put their predictions in GTB to see how they fare? (I assume that the top guy in the game is Hakkaku FWIW).

[Yarimotsu 639]

5 hours ago, Heather82Cs said:

I am curious, does anyone put their predictions in GTB to see how they fare? (I assume that the top guy in the game is Hakkaku FWIW).

I assume you mean the predictions in this thread - you may notice that juryo guesses and makushita joi guesses are made here, and aside from the sanyaku discussion - makuuchi is left for GTB. After GTB entries close, the usual contributors here generally post their makuuchi guesses in the relevant thread.