Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Nagoya 2025

[Reonito 1,748]

2 hours ago, Yubinhaad said:

I'm not sure what your complaint is, Shimanoumi has fought the same opponents as fellow J12 Otsuji, with the exception of same-heya Shiden. And OK, not the same Makushita visitor, but both promotion-seeking opponents.

Next up for Shimanoumi is co-leading Nishikifuji, while Otsuji gets Shirokuma. Are they trying to make things easy for him, too?

I would say that my comment was largely in jest; part of the usual banter about Shimanoumi's seemingly remarkable ability to stay in juryo.

[Reonito 1,748]

Makushita promotion queue: 3e Asahakuryu (5-0), 2e Ishizaki (4-1), 1e Kyokukaiyu (3-2), 1w Asanoyama (3-2), 3w Kitanowaka (4-1), 5e Nishinoryu (4-2), 2w Mudoho (2-3).

All of the contenders are in action tomorrow, with the exception of Nishinoryu, who won his crossover bout with Shiden today. All are perforce fighting lower-ranked opponents, including of course Asahakuryu, who takes on Gyotoku in a yusho semifinal.

Juryo demotion queue: 10w Nabatame (0-0-10), 10e Mitoryu (0-5-5), 12w Otsuji (2-8), 12e Shimanoumi (2-8), 13w Daiamami (3-7), 14w Miyanokaze (5-5), 11e Shiden (4-6).

I've taken Kazekeno and Shirokuma off the endangered list, even though each could use another win for mathematical safety. By the numbers, Otsuji and Shimanoumi must win out, Daiamami needs 4 wins, Miyanokaze 3, and Shiden 2. Recent history suggests that an incumbent can survive with even two fewer wins than the target when the alternative is a borderline promotion, so treat these numbers accordingly.

[Oskanohana 341]

On the M18 watch, Ozeki Kotonowakazakura (5-5) is trying his best these last 3 days to end up kadoban and maybe open up a place down low come Kyushu. Sekiwake Kiribayamashima (8-2) won't probably get promoted even with a yusho as his 8-7 result from March is too hard to carry for that. His 11-4 from last basho is good enough, but he'll need a couple of repeats of that and possibly a little bit extra, as being a former ozeki, he'll probably be asked for something definitive to get the rank back. Jo'i mainstay and Ironman Daieisho went kyujo and that will take him out of the jo'i for the first time since 2019 (geez, that long, it's as if somebody cursed him). That leaves us with our 4 usual lower sanyaku. Shin-komusubi Oshoma(2-8) is already makekoshi to nobody's surprise and essentially out of sanyaku because not-shin-komusubi M1e Aonishiki(8-2) has claimed that place already. Kw Takayasu (7-3) and S2w Wakatakakage(6-4) need just one more win each to stay in lower sanyaku, and it's hard to imagine them losing out. M2w Abi(6-4), M4w Tamawashi(8-2) and M8w Abi's-impersonator(9-1) look like the first in line should any of them falter, but they'll need an extremely strong finish anyway as Takayasu's non-demotion showed us last time.

Long story short, if nothing really weird happens, M18e will appear on the next banzuke. M18w for Kyushu might be on the cards, fingers crossed.

Edited July 22 by Oskanohana

[Reonito 1,748]

1 hour ago, Oskanohana said:

M2w Abi(6-4), M4w Tamawashi(8-2) and M8w Abi's-impersonator(9-1) look like the first in line should any of them falter, but they'll need an extremely strong finish anyway as Takayasu's non-demotion showed us last time.

My guess is that what happened last time with this august incarnation of the banzuke committee is that they decided they weren't going to pull someone up to K if they didn't fully earn it by the numbers, even if this had been the modus operandi for the entire six-basho era if someone $%^& the bed as badly as Takayasu did. So I bet they wouldn't have a problem replacing a faltering incumbent with a 9-6 Abi or a 10-5 Tamawashi, though as you say, the chances we'll get to find out are remote.

[Reonito 1,748]

1 hour ago, Oskanohana said:

(geez, that long, it's as if somebody cursed him)

Yes, I see what you did there.

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 11:

Already achieved: none

1 win: none

2 wins: Nishikigi, Ryuden, Shonannoumi, Oshoumi, Daiseizan

3 wins: Tomokaze

4 wins: Tochitaikai, Kagayaki

Realised that I have previously had Tomokaze a rung too low.

Edited July 23 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 11:

1 win: Sadanoumi

2 wins: Asakoryu

3 wins: none

4 wins: Chiyoshoma, Kotoeiho*, Shishi

Already demotable: Kayo, Hidenoumi, Endo

*Kotoeiho may be safe with 3 more wins as there should be an 18e slot in September.

Edited July 23 by Tigerboy1966
addition

[Oskanohana 341]

Sanyaku M18 watch:

Ozeki Kotonowakazakura(6-5) stood strong today against time itself and is one step closer to kachikoshi.

Sekiwake Kiribayamashima(8-3) spoiled horrendously a completely winning position against Onosato and is making life harder for himself if he's keen on building an ozeki-run.

Sekiwake Wakatakakage (7-4) dispatched Hakuoho and is guaranteed a spot in sanyaku for Aki.

Komusubi M1e Aonishiki (9-2) defeated Abi and will debut in sanyaku for real next basho.

Maegashira Komusubi Takayasu(8-3) defeated....Abi??? Him too?....I don't know, let's call this guy he defeated .....Abikuron....in a banger of a fight, guaranteeing his stay in sanyaku. Wouldn't it be funny for him to force a third sekiwake slot with 11 wins after being allowed to stay at komusubi with a measly 6-9?

The contenders for komusubi in case that happens (Abi, Tamawashi and Abikuron) all lost today as related. K Oshoma(2-9) is now suuuuurely out of sanyaku, isn't he? For realsies?

Tomorrow, Aonishiki will face Tamawashi, Wakatakakage and Takayasu will be used as yusho-stoppers for the low-maegashira pair of Kusano and Kotoshoho. Kotonowakazakura and Kiribayamashima will debate whose name change was more awful and who wishes harder to be a real ozeki-boy. Meanwhile, Onosato will fight Abikuron.

[Oskanohana 341]

As for the lower division yusho races, I'll wait for @Asashosakari's excellent summary, but I just wonder if they'll do Gonowaka vs Kaki or they will throw a couple of 5-1's their way to stay within their division boundaries. Let's say Kyoda for Kaki and some Jd60-70's for Gonowaka.

[Amamaniac 2,090]

Kirishima was in the driver's seat for a double-digit Ozeki-run-worthy record after the first eight days of the tourney.  The wheels of his car seem to have fallen off.  Is it just my imagination, or did Kiri start the tournament without any suppporter, but now is showing signs of injury with a supporter on his right elbow?  For any real shot at an Ozeki comeback, he'll need three wins over the next four days.  His H2H against Fauxzeki Kotozakura tilts things in his favour, but there is that pesky ... injury to consider.

[Reonito 1,748]

On 21/07/2025 at 16:09, Fashiritētā said:

Im gonna guess Mr. Forever Juryo

And of course he got the fusen win over Nishikifuji 

[Reonito 1,748]

Makushita promotion queue: 3e Asahakuryu (6-0), 2e Ishizaki (5-1), 1e Kyokukaiyu (4-2), 1w Asanoyama (4-2), 3w Kitanowaka (4-2), 5e Nishinoryu (4-2).

The top four contenders all won, and should be set to go up assuming there's room. Kitanowaka lost to Kamito and can finish no better than 5th in the promotion queue; he can be passed for that spot by Nishinoryu depending on the outcomes of their final bouts.

Juryo demotion queue: 10w Nabatame (0-0-10), 10e Mitoryu (0-5-5), 13w Daiamami (3-8), 12w Otsuji (3-8), 12e Shimanoumi (3-8), 14w Miyanokaze (5-6).

Daiamami lost today, while Otsuji and Shimanoumi won (the latter by fusen), so by the numbers, all three must win out, while Miyanokaze needs 3 wins. Recent history suggests that an incumbent can survive with even two fewer wins than the target when the alternative is a borderline promotion, so treat these numbers accordingly. Given the strength of the first four promotion cases though, I would expect at least two demotions from this quartet.

[Bunbukuchagama 926]

5 hours ago, Oskanohana said:

K Oshoma(2-9) is now suuuuurely out of sanyaku, isn't he? For realsies?

Well... Whatever it takes to keep Aonishiki out of sanyaku, right? 

[Asashosakari 20,137]

Day 11 Results

Videos

Makushita (4 > 2)
6-0 Ms3e Asahakuryu (Takasago)
5-1 Ms27w Gyotoku (Tamanoi)
6-0 Ms40w Yago (Oshiogawa)
5-1 Ms54e Ikarigata (Isenoumi)

Sandanme (5 > 2)
6-0 Sd15e Mineyaiba (Shikoroyama)
5-1 Sd30w Anhibiki (Ajigawa)
6-0 Sd42w Kobayashi (Kasugano)
5-1 Sd52e Tochinobori (Kasugano)
5-1 Sd73e Yurikisho (Tokiwayama)

Jonidan (6 > 3)
6-0 Jd5e Kazuma (Kise)
5-1 Jd39e Seiyu (Hidenoyama)
6-0 Jd57w Tatsuosho (Tatsunami)
5-1 Jd66w Matsuda (Sakaigawa)
5-1 Jd80w Tsukioka (Futagoyama)
6-0 Jd98w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonokuchi (2 > 1)
5-1 Jk16w Naniwamusashi (Musashigawa)
6-0 Jk21e Kaki (Oitekaze)

List without the defeated rikishi:

 

Makushita (2)
6-0 Ms3e Asahakuryu (Takasago)
6-0 Ms40w Yago (Oshiogawa)

Sandanme (2)
6-0 Sd15e Mineyaiba (Shikoroyama)
6-0 Sd42w Kobayashi (Kasugano)

Jonidan (3)
6-0 Jd5e Kazuma (Kise)
6-0 Jd57w Tatsuosho (Tatsunami)
6-0 Jd98w Gonowaka (Takekuma)

Jonokuchi (1)
6-0 Jk21e Kaki (Oitekaze)

Fair enough, that was quite a convincing win by Yago. Briefly put under pressure by Ikarigata he nevertheless didn't looked fazed at all and turned the tables on his younger opponent quickly. Asahakuryu had to contend against a somewhat stronger challenge by Gyotoku, but his left-hand outside grip eventually powered him to a clear victory as well. So, it's these two for the makushita yusho on Day 13, although it's safe to say that Yago will be a major underdog in that match-up.

Very nice sumo in all three sandanme matches. Yurikisho tried a henka against Kobayashi that achieved basically nothing, after which a brief exchange of slaps eventually led to Kobayashi getting in close and ending the bout in short order from there. His stablemate Tochinobori was up in the very next match, but wasn't able to follow up with a victory of his own: Wakatakamoto was in control of the match for most of its duration, except for a brief flurry of activity by Tochinobori near the end which Wakatakamoto immediately countered into his win by uwatedashinage. So, it'll be a straight two-man decider in this division as well, where Kobayashi will go against favourite Mineyaiba - who found himself forced back strongly by Anhibiki today, but turned the tables with a technically excellent utchari. Many swing-around attempts lead to close decisions that are only confirmed after mono-ii, but this one was never in doubt.

Incidentally, this is 21-year-old Kobayashi's third consecutive 6-win score since injury took him down from high sandanme all the way to jonokuchi, and he has secured his makushita debut for September now.

The three yusho race bouts in jonidan were won by the favourites Kazuma, Tatsuosho and Gonowaka, all of them without significant trouble. Matsuda managed to give it the best go among the three defeated rikishi, at least managing to move Tatsuosho back for a bit before he was flung down. The sole match-up in jonokuchi was a similarly quick affair, with Kaki now left standing as the division's sole undefeated rikishi.

With an even eight rikishi up for the final round of the yusho competitions, it's indeed a very good question whether or not they will pair up Gonowaka and Kaki. I think they will, mostly because the alternatives don't look any more appealing. There's certainly a bigger risk of the jonokuchi leader dropping the bout than there usually is, and thus the spectre of a 6-1 playoff looms - most low-jonidan 6-0's are posted by regulars of the division who just had a bad basho two months before, while Gonowaka was actually competitive in mid-sandanme before missing two basho. Nevertheless, even though Kaki does not appear to be all that great by university graduate standards, I would expect him to be around low makushita strength as it stands, and thus be a reasonably clear favourite against Gonowaka. If the match is made and he wins, all four divisional yusho will be decided on Day 13. In this scenario, jonidan would be down to the match-up between Kazuma and Tatsuosho; the latter already proved himself in makushita briefly before his injury, but former MsTd Kazuma would have to be considered the favourite.

For completeness, the theoretically conceivable alternatives would be:

• Kazuma - Tatsuosho goes ahead, but Gonowaka and Kaki both get 5-1 opponents. Looking at the potential candidates for selection (typically taken from around 15 to 20 ranks higher than the 6-0 guy), I don't see anyone that would trouble Gonowaka, while the only significant obstacle to Kaki would be makushita-experienced Kyoda. I don't see much of a point of this solution - giving creampuff opponents to both 6-0's will just lead to a near-inevitable jonidan playoff, while doing Kaki - Kyoda would mean an even greater risk of a jonokuchi 6-1 playoff, and if they're actually okay with that, they can just do Gonowaka - Kaki.
• The 6-0 match-up in jonidan is made as Tatsuosho - Gonowaka instead, and it's Kazuma who joins Kaki in getting a 5-1 opponent. Competition-wise this would most likely ensure that the final match of the jonidan division is actually between the two strongest contenders, just as a playoff then (as opposed to doing Kazuma - Tatsuosho on Day 13 straight-up with underdog Gonowaka potentially forcing the playoff against the winner), and purely based on rank difference Tatsuosho - Gonowaka is slightly more justified than Kazuma - Tatsuosho. But I honestly don't see who Kazuma's 5-1 opponent would be - as per the above, it would have to be somebody ranked higher than him, but there's just nobody available within jonidan due to Kazuma being up at Jd5 himself, and cross-divisional 6-0 vs 5-1 matches are extremely rare unless it's Jk 6-0 vs Jd 5-1. (For reference, here's the same query with Jk vs Jd included...a much longer list.)

So, IMHO Gonowaka - Kaki makes the most sense. We'll see. I'll provide a small update once the schedule is out after Day 12 has concluded, and for a bonus I'll be taking a quick look at who has already secured debuts in makushita and sandanme, and which rikishi are still in the running for that in their final matches.

Edited July 23 by Asashosakari

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 12:

Already achieved: none

1 win: Nishikigi, Shonannoumi,

2 wins: Ryuden, Tomokaze, Oshoumi, Daiseizan

3 wins: Tochitaikai

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 12:

1 win: Sadanoumi, Asakoryu

2 wins: none

3 wins: Chiyoshoma, Kotoeiho*

Already demotable: Kayo, Hidenoumi, Endo, Shishi

*Kotoeiho should be safe with 3 more wins as long as there is an 18e slot in September.

[hypnoowl 23]

In a strange twist of fate Tamawashi's theoretical chance at komusubi depends on him losing to Takayasu tomorrow. 

Should he win, Takayasu stays at komusubi and even winning out to 11-4 does nothing for an extra slot. Should he lose, Takayasu still has a chance of forcing sekiwake and, depending on others, even losing out may be enough to fill an open regular slot.

Edited July 24 by hypnoowl

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

2 hours ago, hypnoowl said:

Should he lose, Takayasu still has a chance of forcing sekiwake and, depending on others, even losing out may be enough to fill an open regular slot.

I hadn't even thought of Takayasu forcing a third sekiwake slot, but it would be a great story.

Incidentally, Tamawashi and Takayasu are the only two wrestlers who have been in maku'uchi since I started watching sumo again in Aki 2014... and it looks like they both have a couple of years left in them yet. There like much-loved old cars: the engine might fall out at any moment but they keep passing the MOT.

[Asashosakari 20,137]

18 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

So, IMHO Gonowaka - Kaki makes the most sense. We'll see. I'll provide a small update once the schedule is out after Day 12 has concluded, and for a bonus I'll be taking a quick look at who has already secured debuts in makushita and sandanme, and which rikishi are still in the running for that in their final matches.

Gonowaka - Kaki it is. So, we're either done with the yusho races tomorrow, or there are playoffs in both jonidan and jonokuchi.

For completeness, the potential playoff participants in jonokuchi would be:

Kyoda (Jk3e 5-1)
Kakusho (Jk13e 5-1)
Naniwamusashi (Jk16w 5-1)
Yabugasaki (Jk20w 5-1)

These guys are battling it out for two 6-1 scores in that order tomorrow.

As for rikishi earning a first-time trip to a higher division:

Debut in makushita secured
Ryuji (Sd7w 4-2)
Kobayashi (Sd42w 6-0)

Debut in makushita possible
Harunishiki (Sd5w 3-3)
Koki (Sd9w 3-3)
Soma (Sd10e 3-3)
Kassho (Sd20w 4-2)
Tenei (Sd29w 5-1)
Senshoho (Sd35w 5-1)
Tenrosei (Sd48e 5-1)

Debut in sandanme secured
Hikarumusashi (Jd33e 5-1)
Shoryu (Jd34w 5-1)

Debut in sandanme possible
Matsugi (Jd4e 3-3)
Kikunoshiro (Jd27e 4-2)
Oatari (Jd34e 4-2)
Musubiyama (Jd53w 5-1)
Matsuda (Jd66w 5-1)
Kazunofuji (Jd70w 5-1)

Musubiyama and Matsuda are facing off on Day 14.

Edited July 24 by Asashosakari

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

55 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

For completeness, the potential playoff participants in jonokuchi would be:

Kyoda (Jk3e 5-1)
Kakusho (Jk13e 5-1)
Naniwamusashi (Jk16w 5-1)
Yabugasaki (Jk20w 5-1)

I had Kyoda and Yabugasaki down as the two favourites at the start of the basho.

Kyoda has beaten all of his jonokuchi opponents and it would not be unfair if he got a second bite at the cherry.

[Asashosakari 20,137]

Juryo versus makushita, the strictly numerical view (with the usual "this is all based on unconfirmed hypotheses" caveats)...

Day 12

Shirokuma   W  J4w   3-9    safe
Kazekeno    W  J8e   5-7    safe

               Rank  W-L    max   min    maxQ  minQ
Mitoryu        J10e  0-5-7  Ms7e  Ms11e   3rd   2nd   
Nabatame       J10w  kyujo  Ms11w Ms11w   1st   1st
Shiden      L  J11e  5-7          Ms2e          3rd
Shimanoumi  L  J12e  3-9    Ms1e  Ms7e    7th   3rd
Otsuji      L  J12w  3-9    Ms1w  Ms7w    7th   3rd
Daiamami    W  J13w  4-8          Ms6w          3rd
Miyanokaze  W  J14w  6-6          Ms3w          3rd

Kyokukaiyu     Ms1e  4-2    J12e  J14e    1st*  4th
Asanoyama      Ms1w  4-2    J12w  J14w    2nd   4th**
Ishizaki       Ms2e  5-1    J11e  J13e    1st   4th
Asahakuryu     Ms3e  6-0    J10e  J12e    1st   3rd*
Kitanowaka     Ms3w  4-2    J14w  Ms2w    5th** 6th
Nishinoryu     Ms5e  4-2    Ms2e  Ms4e    5th   6th
Takakento      Ms5w  3-3    Ms4w          7th

Queue ordering assumptions contrary to the usual "tie goes to the better record":

*  Asahakuryu 6-1 behind Kyokukaiyu 5-2
** Kitanowaka 5-2 behind Asanoyama 4-3

Based on Ms1 possibly being worth just a little extra when it's close. The first one isn't very relevant, of course; these guys aren't going to get stuck in makushita with those records. Kitanowaka / Asanoyama could conceivably matter.

Anyway, after today we have four juryo rikishi who calculate into makushita as well as (at least) four makushita rikishi who calculate into juryo, so a minimum of four exchanges should be assured. The third and fourth exchanges won't necessarily come at the expense of Shimanoumi and Otsuji though, in case other guys still drop into the demotion queue ahead of them.

Takakento should be out of the running for sure; the virtual position that he can still earn (Ms4w) as a theoretical 7th promotee is worse than what the worst possible 7th demotee from juryo can still fall to (Shiden to Ms2e). Nishinoryu still has some chances if he goes to 5-2, but a lot of losing in juryo will be required (and if last basho's Miyanokaze vs Kyokukaiyu comparison is now authoritative for ties, then Shiden is already out of his reach). Kitanowaka dropping to 4-3 may or may not help Nishinoryu, depending on who Kitanowaka would be losing to.

In any case, no makushita rikishi up in juryo for Day 13. Kyokukaiyu / Asanoyama / Ishizaki / Kitanowaka all don't have matches on the posted provisional Day 14 / 15 schedules; Ishizaki and Asanoyama will be getting juryo opponents with certainty, while Kyokukaiyu and Kitanowaka could also be paired up directly if they're not needed up there.

Takakento goes against Ms8w Tochimusashi and Nishinoryu will face Ms10e Toseiryu, both on Day 14.

Edited July 24 by Asashosakari

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Key juryo promotion matches for day 13:

DAISEIZAN (needs 2 wins) vs TOCHITAIKAI (must win)

OSHOUMI (needs 2 wins) vs Hitoshi

TOMOKAZE (needs 2 wins) vs Hatsuyama

SHONANNOUMI (needs 1 win) vs Tsurugisho

RYUDEN (needs 2 wins) vs Fujiseiun

NISHIKIGI (needs 1 win) vs Kagayaki

Very much looking forward to the last-named bout. Don't expect any innovations; these two just do what they do. Two old bulls locking horns for the 23rd time.

Edited July 24 by Tigerboy1966

[Tigerboy1966 1,615]

Key maku'uchi relegation matches for day 13:

ASAKORYU (needs 1 win) vs KOTOEIHO (must win)

CHIYOSHOMA (must win) vs Shodai

SADANOUMI (needs 1 win) vs Hidenoumi

Of course, if there aren't enough viable promotion candidates, there may be some lucky survivors.

[Reonito 1,748]

Makushita promotion queue: 3e Asahakuryu (6-0), 2e Ishizaki (5-1), 1e Kyokukaiyu (4-2), 1w Asanoyama (4-2), 3w Kitanowaka (4-2), 5e Nishinoryu (4-2).

Juryo demotion queue: 10w Nabatame (0-0-12), 10e Mitoryu (0-5-7), 12w Otsuji (3-9), 12e Shimanoumi (3-9), 13w Daiamami (4-8), 14w Miyanokaze (6-6), J11e Shiden (5-7).

See the thorough analysis by @Asashosakari up-thread. The first 4 promotion candidates should have sufficiently strong cases to push down the J12 duo already, though with this banzuke committee, who knows. Daiamami and Miyanokaze won, reducing their targets to 3 and 2 wins, respectively. I've added Shiden, who still needs one more after losing to Daiamami. Wins by Shirokuma and Kazekeno ensured that everyone else is mathematically safe.

[Asashosakari 20,137]

A fun (or "fun") thing to think about is where a 4-3 Nishinoryu would slot in. He'd still be the 6th best promotion candidate, calculating to Ms4e, while the worst possible 6th demotion contender is Miyanokaze calculating to Ms3w. So yeah, by the numbers we could be seeing a J14w staying with 6 wins again.