Natsu 2025 discussion (results)

[Octofuji 387]

3 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

This is the trouble for those hopefuls which do too well in the first 9 days. They got too (often far too) strong opposition. Those under the radar (like Onokatsu this time) fare much better. Has M17w tomorrow and may cruise to an 11-4 with very modest opponents.

Arguably, there is even a subjective factor that those who receive attention with large expectations, get even harder opposition than others with same result/rank combination.

This seems especially true for Asakoryu (M17) today brought up to face Wakatakakage. I know they were both (hypothetically) in the yusho race, but it seems a little harsh.

It's not getting easier for Hakuoho, he has Kirishima tomorrow.

 

[Katooshu 3,416]

Onosato was a phenom entering ozumo, reflected in him capturing 5 major amateur titles (those granting tsukedashi) despite a reduced competiton schedule due to COVID. For comparison, no other pro in the last 25 years won more than 2, and most recognizable sekitori from a college background won just 1 or none. He already had the build of a superhuman and the power to go with it. 

That said, it's also clear that despite a very advanced start, he's made significant improvement since he joined the pros two years ago. For example, he used to be far less stable on his feet and more prone to falling forward than he is now - heck, he lost his debut match in that fashion. I don't think being a sumo genius was required to get him to where he is now, but clearly Nishonoseki has a set up that has helped him refine his flaws and advance to the top, and he's stayed relatively healthy in the process unlike some of his rivals.

And when I see some former amateur stars who never progress, or even regress, I can really appreciate that.

Edited May 23 by Katooshu

[Gospodin 240]

1 hour ago, Hankegami said:

Even in case, asking a 30-years-old to save Japanese Ozumo by himself would have been quite the tall order. That's what I meant when I talked about a "consolation prize". Onosato can be reasonably regarded as the next dominant yokozuna, like Takanohana in 1994. Asking the same to Kisenosato would have been delusional.

It is safe to say that Kisenosato was better than the then crop of of Yokozuna, the otherworldly Hakuho being the exception. He was also remarkably injury-free until he fell so unlucky and denied surgery. I do not see why Kisenosato could not have been a fine Yokozuna for three to four years to come, with Hak and the other getting kyujo ever more. Consolation prize ? No, definitely not.

Edited May 23 by Gospodin
Edits and rephrasing

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

4 hours ago, Andreas21 said:

This is the trouble for those hopefuls which do too well in the first 9 days. They got too (often far too) strong opposition. Those under the radar (like Onokatsu this time) fare much better. Has M17w tomorrow and may cruise to an 11-4 with very modest opponents.

Arguably, there is even a subjective factor that those who receive attention with large expectations, get even harder opposition than others with same result/rank combination.

Hakuoho got shafted because he was higher rank than Onokatsu, and at the time of scheduling they were both 8-4. The committee wanted an opponent for Kiri that wouldn't be an embarrassing matchup, and since Kiri was already set to face Oshoma, the next guy in line with an acceptable record was Hakuoho.

Now Onokatsu is the highest-ranked maegashira with nine wins. If he beats Asakoryu, as seems probable, he's the most likely option for Wakatakakage on day 15. If Hakuoho also beats Kirishima, maybe he gets dragged up one more time, but even then I'd put odds on it being Onokatsu. Hakuoho still hasn't faced Kinbozan even though they're so close in rank. Aonishiki v. Sadanoumi and Meisei v. Asakoryu are already sitting there. Onokatsu's free for the san'yaku fight. As long as he wins, it makes the most sense by far.

[lackmaker 446]

1 hour ago, Gospodin said:

2 hours ago, Hankegami said:

 

It is safe to say that Kisenosato was better than the then crop of of Yokozuna, the otherworldly Hakuho being the exception

Is that true?

[Faustonowaka 134]

Four months ago Kotozakura was on a Yokozuna run. Now we have 2 fresh Yokozuna and he isn’t one of them…

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

3 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Is that true?

That Kisenosato was that good? I only have old video to go by, but he was pretty damn good. He just took forever to reach yokozuna because he had twelve JYs before he won a title. He was like the, uh...

checking sports metaphors

Buffalo Bills/Utah Jazz/Arsenal of sumo. 

Yeah. I think those work.

[Gospodin 240]

9 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Is that true?

It´s definitely simplified, who is who ? 

 

 

[Reonito 1,613]

8 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

Just a thought. I know we can have a yokozuna-ozeki in July but they are going to want a proper ozeki as soon as possible. Could they consider moving the line down to 31 for Kirishma or Daieisho?

Hasn't been done since 1985, despite no shortage of needs and opportunities.

[MrGrumpyGills 143]

I wouldn't want anyone to be (re)promoted to Ozeki who isn't ready. We already had several "cursed" and mediocre Ozeki in recent years, after all

[Chartorenji 243]

Doubt they move down the requirement. Kotonowaka is holding down the ranking with ease even with injuries. If he goes Kadoban then I can see it, but as long as he is winning it's not happening. 

 

Of course, I doubt this will be an issue as I bet Kirishima gets the re promotion soon. He looks like his old killer self and if he can do well in July, he should be set for September. Daieisho is someone who needs a back to back 10 to 11 win basho's to have a shot tbh. Doesn't have the skillset to give a 13 or 14 win performance anymore. 

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

8 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

Doubt they move down the requirement. Kotonowaka is holding down the ranking with ease even with injuries. If he goes Kadoban then I can see it, but as long as he is winning it's not happening. 

Of course, I doubt this will be an issue as I bet Kirishima gets the re promotion soon. He looks like his old killer self and if he can do well in July, he should be set for September. Daieisho is someone who needs a back to back 10 to 11 win basho's to have a shot tbh. Doesn't have the skillset to give a 13 or 14 win performance anymore. 

Kirishima's body would have to hold up for him to get re-promoted. Since he started down the injury path early last year, the glue hasn't kept him held together for two straight bashos, and I think it's overly optimistic to hope that changes until it actually happens. That being said, if he wins out here and goes 12-3 again in July, I could see him at least be discussed for promotion, despite that being 32 over 3, because consecutive 12-3s at sekiwake, at this point in time, is awfully good.

The same might apply to Daieisho if he was capable of 12-3, but it's been quite a while since he pulled that off once, much less twice. So, I concur that his best bet is probably 11-11-11.

[Tigerboy1966 1,539]

49 minutes ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

That Kisenosato was that good?

He probably peaked before he reached yokozuna. Unfortunately his best years coincided with the height of Hakuho's reign of terror when it was very, very difficult for anyone else to win two in a row.

[Chartorenji 243]

1 minute ago, Sumo Spiffy said:

Kirishima's body would have to hold up for him to get re-promoted. Since he started down the injury path early last year, the glue hasn't kept him held together for two straight bashos, and I think it's overly optimistic to hope that changes until it actually happens. That being said, if he wins out here and goes 12-3 again in July, I could see him at least be discussed for promotion, despite that being 32 over 3, because consecutive 12-3s at sekiwake, at this point in time, is awfully good.

The same might apply to Daieisho if he was capable of 12-3, but it's been quite a while since he pulled that off once, much less twice. So, I concur that his best bet is probably 11-11-11.

It's going to be a small window for them to make it as the likes of Aonishiki, Hakuoho, and Onokatsu continue to grow as Rikishi and probably compete for the same spots they hold now. I just find Kirishima staying healthy more likely than Daieisho getting the wins needed at this point. 

[Sumo Spiffy 621]

5 minutes ago, Chartorenji said:

It's going to be a small window for them to make it as the likes of Aonishiki, Hakuoho, and Onokatsu continue to grow as Rikishi and probably compete for the same spots they hold now. I just find Kirishima staying healthy more likely than Daieisho getting the wins needed at this point. 

Agreed that Kiri is more likely to make it than Daieisho. But I don't think the window of opportunity is all that small. All three of the guys you mentioned might just need more seasoning against top competition to figure out how to succeed amongst them, but they've also shown real limitations against those same guys thus far.

• Aonishiki is no doubt the closest in terms of skill, but he's also by far the smallest and it's going to take time to build the size that will maximize the effectiveness of his style (kind of like Hoshoryu).
• Onokatsu is a heavy control wrestler who won't be afforded the chance to sit in static positions and figure out how to win as often as he might like, not to mention the best rikishi are much more likely to find ways to win out of those static positions.
• And Hakuoho might be closest to finding that higher-level success (given his size), but his shoulders may limit his ceiling. That remains to be seen.

Edited May 23 by Sumo Spiffy

[yorikiried by fate 2,035]

2 hours ago, Gospodin said:

It is safe to say that Kisenosato was better than the then crop of of Yokozuna

Ahahahahaha.

Oh, wait. You are serious!

Ahahahahahahahahahaha.

[Bunbukuchagama 827]

9 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

they are going to want a proper ozeki as soon as possible

But why? With 2 Yokozuna, they are insured against such accidents as Kotozakura losing his rank.

[Bunbukuchagama 827]

7 hours ago, warusawa said:

So are we gonna get Hoshoryu vs Onosato on senshuraku? Would be a bout of some significance.

Yes, we are. 

[Reonito 1,613]

4 hours ago, dingo said:

Midorifuji has turned the page completely. 4 wins in a row after a dismal 9 loss start and close to saving his makuuchi rank. Excellent effort!

He's completely safe.

[Gospodin 240]

14 minutes ago, yorikiried by fate said:

Ahahahahaha.

Oh, wait. You are serious!

Ahahahahahahahahahaha.

I kindly ask you to elaborate. To clarify my remark: at the time of his promotion.

Thanks

Edited May 23 by Gospodin

[Bunbukuchagama 827]

3 hours ago, Hankegami said:

My argument was more that now they have to face their fair share of international competition to be considered first

I see exactly 7 non-Mongolian foreign rikishi on the banzuke; I wouldn't call it a huge amount of competition.

If anything, I would argue that one-foreigner-per-heya rule ended up hurting potential recruits from other countries way more. Mongolians have a reputation and (in many cases) connections in ozumo; as a result, most stables decide to play it safe by choosing a Mongolian recruit over someone from a more "exotic" country sumo-wise. 

[Gospodin 240]

Perhaps a Sumo Bosman case is brewing already  ?

[Bunbukuchagama 827]

14 minutes ago, Gospodin said:

Perhaps a Sumo Bosman case is brewing already  ?

Alas, this isn't European Union; there is nobody to defend the rights of poor gaijin. 

[Gospodin 240]

1 hour ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

He probably peaked before he reached yokozuna. Unfortunately his best years coincided with the height of Hakuho's reign of terror when it was very, very difficult for anyone else to win two in a row.

I fondly remember his early days, when he toyed with harite. Even against Asashoryu. Needless to say, the sole Yokozuna did not exactly like it.

[Kaninoyama 1,866]

7 hours ago, dingo said:

Midorifuji has turned the page completely. 4 wins in a row after a dismal 9 loss start and close to saving his makuuchi rank. Excellent effort!

It's worth noting that he's won 4 out of 5 since abandoning the red mawashi in favor of the one that matches his name.

A red mawashi to Midorifuji is like kryptonite to superman.