Promotion/Demotion and Yūshō Discussion Kyūshū 2023

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 10

Makuuchi
8-2: Ō1w Kirishima, S2e Kotonowaka, M8w Atamifuji, M14w Ichiyamamoto
7-3: Ō1e Takakeishō, Ō2w Hōshōryū, M5w Midorifuji, M10e Ryūden, M11w Hiradoumi, M15w Churanoumi
6-4: S1e Daieishō, M3e Takayasu, M4w Nishikigi, M6e Shōnannoumi, M7w Kinbōzan, M9w Mitakeumi, M12e Ōhō, M12w Tamawashi, M14e Tomokaze

We start our PDY coverage this basho with almost half of makuuchi in the arasoi! I have to say, this is the largest arasoi within memory. It's also novel in another way, insofar as all ōzeki and sekiwake are in it for the first time in a long while. A sign of normalty returning, despite some hiccups here and there? You decide.

With 19 sekitori, I won't bother breaking down bout by bout, but suffice to say Hiradoumi ought to be bought a few rounds of drinks tonight for allowing Kirishima, Kotonowaka, and Atamifuji to claw even with Ichiyamamoto. Takakeishō and Hōshōryū are keeping pace just one behind. To me, though, the 6-4s are the ones much more capable of playing spoiler: S1e Daieishō blows either hot or cold (he's practically a gimme for Takakeishō but has been assigned to gatekeep Ichiyamamoto tomorrow), while Mitakeumi, Tamawashi, and Tomokaze may all also be brought up to face higher-level opposition depending on how they do. Those last three are no stranger to joi-level sumo, so some upsets may yet ensue. 

Tomorrow, Takakeishō gets his chance to start getting pulling down his rivals one by one to try and salvage a tsuna bid, with Kotonowaka first in the firing line. Daieishō gatekeeps Ichiyamamoto, while Kirishima takes on a MK-trending Wakamotoharu in what is usually a chūmoku bout in any basho, let alone this one. Atamifuji meanwhile is put in a hiramaku matchup against Churanoumi, and with the sheer number of arasoi members, many of them are facing each other to thin out the numbers a bit more. We should be losing 3-4 people tomorrow, but this promises to be a pretty exciting ending with the top of the division pulling its weight nonetheless.

Jūryō

8-2: J1w Kotoshōhō
7-3: J5e Ōnosato, J7w Tamashōhō, J12e Shimanoumi, J12w Shiden
6-4: J2e Bushōzan, J2w Shimazuumi, J4w Mitoryū, J6e Chiyoshōma, J9e Takahashi, J13e Yūma, J13w Asakōryū

It's rare that jūryō's arasoi is less populous than makuuchi's, although with 12 members, it's also again nearly half the division. Kotoshōhō must be considered the favourite to take the jūryō championship, having had the most top-flight experience as well as having dispatched his closest contender, Ōnosato. But it's still early days and close enough yet that none of them can afford to slip up. Kotoshōhō has also just about worked his way through half of the arasoi, so he starts taking on a lower class of challenger tomorrow beginning with Chiyoshōma, with the J12s and J13s presumably lined up if they continue performing well.

As with makuuchi, there's quite a number of intraarasoi matchups by sheer necessity tomorow.

Edited November 21, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 10

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

Next	Result	East	Rank	West	Result	Next
X	0-0-10	Terunofuji	Y
1	7-3	Takakeishō	O	Kirishima	8-2	O
			O	Hōshōryū	7-3	1
2	6-4	Daieishō	S	Wakamotoharu	4-6	3
O	8-2	Kotonowaka	S
5	3-7	Abi	K	Hokutofuji	2-8	X
X	1-2-7	Asanoyama	M1	Ura	4-6	4
4	5-5	Shōdai	M2	Meisei	3-7	X
3	6-4	Takayasu	M3	Tobizaru	4-6	5
X	4-6	Gōnoyama	M4	Nishikigi	6-4	4
X	2-8	Ōnoshō	M5	Midorifuji	7-3	3
5	6-4	Shōnannoumi	M6	Takanoshō	5-5	X
X	4-6	Hokuseihō	M7	Kinbōzan	6-4	5
X	2-8	Endō	M8	Atamifuji	8-2	4

 

Demotion queue: Hokutofuji, Abi, Wakamotoharu, Daieishō
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Midorifuji, Ura, Shōdai

We have our first demotion in Hokutofuji, who went MK today. Abi is not far behind, and must win out to retain rank. Wakamotoharu is not doing too hot either, although he has the luxury of a higher rank and less losses, and can retain a sanyaku spot with just 3 more wins. Daieishō and Hōshōryū are not yet secure, although it's very likely they'll get their KKs by this week.

Another corollary of a well-performing sanyaku is a relatively low-scoring joi this time round. No one is really clamouring to take Hokutofuji's place just yet, with the best candidate being a 6-4 Takayasu. Midorifuji, Ura, and Shōdai can also stake a claim.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

1	2-8	Endō	M8	Atamifuji	8-2	O
1	3-7	Myōgiryū	M9	Mitakeumi	6-4	O
O	7-3	Ryūden	M10	Kotoekō	2-8	X
O	5-5	Sadanoumi	M11	Hiradoumi	7-3	O
O	6-4	Ōhō	M12	Tamawashi	6-4	O
3	3-7	Takarafuji	M13	Tsurugishō	5-5	1
O	6-4	Tomokaze	M14	Ichiyamamoto	8-2	O
4	3-7	Tōhakuryū	M15	Churanoumi	7-3	O
4	3-7	Rōga	M16	Nishikifuji	3-7	5
4	4-6	Kitanowaka	M17
3	5-5	Aoiyama	J1	Kotoshōhō	8-2	O
3	6-4	Bushōzan	J2	Shimazuumi	6-4	3
X	2-8	Kagayaki	J3	Ōshōma	4-6	5
5	5-5	Daiamami	J4	Mitoryū	6-4	4
3	7-3	Ōnosato	J5	Shishi	2-8	X
5	6-4	Chiyoshōma	J6	Hakuōhō	0-0-10	X
X	4-6	Daishōhō	J7	Tamashōhō	7-3	4

 

Demotion queue: Kotoekō, Nishikifuji, Kitanowaka, Rōga, Tōhakuryū
Promotion queue: Kotoshōhō, Aoiyama, Bushōzan, Shimazuumi

With his kyūjō today, Kotoekō is almost surely toast, having only garnered 2 wins and sure to end with a 2-13. Sadogatake dual representation in makuuchi won't end with him, as Kotoshōhō is poised to rejoin makuuchi next basho. Nishikifuji is only one loss away from demotion, while the rest of the chaps in the promotion queue had better buck up too. 

Jūryō <-> makushita

O	6-4	Chiyoshōma	J6	Hakuōhō	0-0-10	X
O	4-6	Daishōhō	J7	Tamashōhō	7-3	O
3	2-4-4	Chiyomaru	J8	Tokihayate	5-5	O
O	6-4	Takahashi	J9	Takakentō	2-8	3
2	4-6	Akua	J10	Tenshōhō	3-7	3
5	1-9	Hitoshi	J11	Hidenoumi	5-3-2	1
O	7-3	Shimanoumi	J12	Shiden	7-3	O
1	6-4	Yūma	J13	Asakōryū	6-4	1
3	5-5	Chiyosakae	J14	Azumaryū	0-2-8	X
O	4-1	Hakuyōzan	Ms1	Takerufuji	4-1	O
X	0-0-5	Kihō	Ms2	Ōshōumi	2-3	2
1	3-2	Tochimusashi	Ms3	Kitadaichi	2-3	2
2	2-3	Fukai	Ms4	Tsushimanada	3-3	1
X	1-4	Kototebakari	Ms5	Ōtsuji	2-3	2

Demotion queue: Hakuōhō, Azumaryū, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō
Promotion queue: Hakuyōzan, Takerufuji, Tochimusashi, Tsushimanada, Kitaharima

Rare that this early, we get two confirmed promotions and demotions. Hakuōhō will fall to makushita with another zenkyū, while Azumaryū's basho ended early with no hope of a return. That neatly makes space for the undeniable Ms1 pair, who both have KKs by now.

While Chiyomaru and Hidenoumi also have absences to contend with, they're amazingly not in the greatest danger. Chiyomaru is high enough that some wins could save him, while Hidenoumi has enough wins that he only needs 1 more to avoid demotion. Demotion risk instead goes to Hitoshi, with Chiyosakae and Tenshōhō some distance behind.

Other than the Ms1 pair, not much else of note going on in upper makushita. The results there are best described as middling, although Tochimusashi might come alive with a 5-2 to make a strong case. Kitaharima is also worth mentioning as the only undefeated toriteki in the Ms15e zone, so he might be able to wrangle a surprise promotion if he stays perfect. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Seiyashi

[WAKATAKE 2,759]

Also rare that we don’t have to speculate about Shimanoumi and his miraculous banzuke luck 

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

In terms of promotion from makushita to juryo, wouldn't a 7-0 yusho from Ms11 trump any other candidates? If that's the case would you include Kitaharima in the queue.

[Reonito 1,783]

10 minutes ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

In terms of promotion from makushita to juryo, wouldn't a 7-0 yusho from Ms11 trump any other candidates? If that's the case would you include Kitaharima in the queue.

We've never had the opportunity to find out if a 7-0 in the extended promotion zone trumps a KK at Ms1e, but yeah, he should definitely be somewhere in the queue, given that there are folks currently in it who also must win out to be considered

[Yamanashi 4,078]

2 hours ago, Reonito said:

We've never had the opportunity to find out if a 7-0 in the extended promotion zone trumps a KK at Ms1e, but yeah, he should definitely be somewhere in the queue, given that there are folks currently in it who also must win out to be considered

If I read the db correctly, 5 examples of 7-0 at Ms11e (with Yusho); all made Juryo, the last in 7/2017 when Yago went to J13w.

[Reonito 1,783]

35 minutes ago, Yamanashi said:

If I read the db correctly, 5 examples of 7-0 at Ms11e (with Yusho); all made Juryo, the last in 7/2017 when Yago went to J13w.

With the infamous exception of Shimoda, every single 7-0 in the Ms6-Ms15 ranks made Juryo since the 7-bout format started in 1960.

[Seiyashi 4,109]

3 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

In terms of promotion from makushita to juryo, wouldn't a 7-0 yusho from Ms11 trump any other candidates? If that's the case would you include Kitaharima in the queue.

Fixed. 

[Reonito 1,783]

7 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Promotion queue: Hakuyōzan, Takerufuji, Tochimusashi, Tsushimanada, Kitaharima

For what it's worth, my current queue order would be 1. Hakuyozan, 2. Kitaharima, 3. Takerufuji, 4. Tochimusashi, 5. Tsushimanada, 6-9. the 2-3 guys in rank order. Tomorrow we'll lose either Oshoumi or Fukai from the 2-3 group, and possibly Kitadaichi and/or Otsuji. Obviously Kitaharima would drop out with a loss. Anyway, we'll know more after day 11, when everyone will have fought 6 times.

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

1 minute ago, Reonito said:

For what it's worth, my current queue order would be 1. Hakuyozan, 2. Kitaharima, 3. Takerufuji

With 3 demotions basically guaranteed, the order of promotion is not that important for these 3 (and Kitaharima might not even make it).

[Reonito 1,783]

2 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

With 3 demotions basically guaranteed, the order of promotion is not that important for these 3 (and Kitaharima might not even make it).

You don't have faith in Hitoshi winning out on a bad ankle after dropping his last 7?

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

Kitaharima just henka'd. He really wants this promotion, I guess. 

[lackmaker 454]

15 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

It's also novel in another way, insofar as all ōzeki and sekiwake are in it for the first time in a long while.

Well not all the sekiwake.

[Bunbukuchagama 976]

5 minutes ago, lackmaker said:

Well not all the sekiwake.

All REAL sekiwake. 

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Yūshō arasoi, Day 11

Makuuchi
9-2: Ō1w Kirishima, S2e Kotonowaka, M8w Atamifuji
8-3: Ō2w Hōshōryū, M5w Midorifuji, M10e Ryūden, M14w Ichiyamamoto
7-4: Ō1e Takakeishō, S1e Daieishō, M3e Takayasu, M9w Mitakeumi, M11w Hiradoumi, M12w Tamawashi, M15w Churanoumi

The first one bites the dust. Ichiyamamoto falls behind courtesy of Daieishō, who did a classic stand him up, slap him down. Kotonowaka avoided suffering the same fate against Takakeishō today, and Kirishima and Atamifuji beat Wakamotoharu and Churanoumi respectively to remain atop the pack.

Other than substituting Ichiyamamoto for Churanoumi, the 8-3 pack remain the same. Hōshōryū preserves his perfect record against Asanoyama, while Midorifuji and Ryūden won scrappy bouts against Hiradoumi and Nishikigi respectively. 

As predicted, we lose 4 people from the 7-4 group: Nishikigi, Shōnannoumi, Kinbōzan, and Ōhō.

Tomorrow, it's Hōshōryū's turn to attempt to knock another leader off - he gets Atamifuji in a hatsukaoawase. The other two leaders, Kirishima and Kotonowaka, face off. We could have a sole leader as early as tomorrow, but we will at least lose one of the 9-2 co-leaders tomorrow. Midorifuji and Ryūden face Daieishō and Takayasu respectively, whereas the remaining 7-4s don't get much respect: Takakeishō gets 4-7 Wakamotoharu, and the remaining hiramaku 7-4s take on journeymen opponents. 

Jūryō

8-3: J1w Kotoshōhō, J5e Ōnosato, J12w Shiden
7-4: J2w Shimazuumi, J4w Mitoryū, J6e Chiyoshōma, J7w Tamashōhō, J12e Shimanoumi, J13e Yūma, J13w Asakōryū
6-5: J1e Aoiyama, J2e Bushōzan, J4e Daiamami, J9e Takahashi, J11w Hidenoumi

Kotoshōhō loses to really bring more than half the division in - no less than 15 rikishi are in the arasoi now. Shiden and Ōnosato capitalised on Kotoshōhō's loss to take the joint lead.

We have 2 8-3 v 7-4 matchups tomorrow: Kotoshōhō takes on Tamashōhō, while Shiden takes on Mitoryū. Ōnosato should have a gimme in the shape of 4-7 Ōshōma. Other notable intra-arasoi matchups are Chiyoshōma v Asakōryū, Daiamami v Yūma, and Takahashi v Shimanoumi. 

Edited November 22, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Seiyashi 4,109]

Promotion/demotion picture, Day 11

? - unknown
X - favourable banzuke outcome failed
O - favourable banzuke outcome reached
~ - favourable banzuke outcome missed except via banzuke luck
N - number of wins for favourable outcome
R - intai

Sanyaku <-> joi

X	0-0-11	Terunofuji	Y
1	7-4	Takakeishō	O	Kirishima	9-2	O
			O	Hōshōryū	8-3	O
O	7-4	Daieishō	S	Wakamotoharu	4-7	3
O	9-2	Kotonowaka	S
4	4-7	Abi	K	Hokutofuji	3-8	X
			M1	Ura	4-7	4
4	5-6	Shōdai	M2
2	7-4	Takayasu	M3	Tobizaru	5-6	4
			M4	Nishikigi	6-5	4
			M5	Midorifuji	8-3	2
X	6-5	Shōnannoumi	M6
			M7	Kinbōzan	6-5	X
			M8	Atamifuji	9-2	3

Demotion queue: Hokutofuji, Abi, Wakamotoharu, 
Promotion queue: Takayasu, Midorifuji, Atamifuji, Ura

Abi staves off demotion for another day, while Wakamotoharu must really start winning. Daieishō has now secured his sanyaku berth, and one more win should see him retain Sekiwake as well. Hōshōryū likewise hits his KK.

Takayasu and Midorifuji move closer to promotion, while Atamifuji makes his first appearance in the queue by virtue of everyone else who needed 4 wins from yesterday, losing today.

Makuuchi <-> jūryō

O	3-8	Endō	M8
O	4-7	Myōgiryū	M9
			M10	Kotoekō	2-8-1	X
			...
3	3-8	Takarafuji	M13	Tsurugishō	6-5	O
			M14
4	3-8	Tōhakuryū	M15
4	3-8	Rōga	M16	Nishikifuji	4-7	4
4	4-7	Kitanowaka	M17
2	6-5	Aoiyama	J1	Kotoshōhō	8-3	O
3	6-5	Bushōzan	J2	Shimazuumi	7-4	2
			J3	Ōshōma	4-7	X
4	6-5	Daiamami	J4	Mitoryū	7-4	3
2	8-3	Ōnosato	J5
4	7-4	Chiyoshōma	J6
			J7	Tamashōhō	7-4	4

Demotion queue: Kotoekō, Kitanowaka, Nishikifuji, Rōga, Tōhakuryū
Promotion queue: Kotoshōhō, Aoiyama, Shimazuumi, Ōnosato

Endō, Myōgiryū, and Tsurugishō are now safe. That fully shines the spotlight on the bottom of the division, all of whom need to win out to stay. Aoiyama, Shimazuumi, and now Ōnosato are slowly but surely clocking up the wins they need to be promotable, so it's a pretty decent chance that we'll see quite a number of exchanges this time out.

Furthermore, with Takanoshō's withdrawal today, a jūryō visitor will be needed to round out the makuuchi bouts every day. That's a prime excuse for exchange bouts, and they start with Shimazuumi taking on Tōhakuryū tomorrow. 

Jūryō <-> makushita

			J6	Hakuōhō	0-0-11	X
			J7
3	2-5-4	Chiyomaru	J8
			J9	Takakentō	2-9	3
1	5-6	Akua	J10	Tenshōhō	3-8	3
X	1-10	Hitoshi	J11	Hidenoumi	6-3-2	O
			J12
O	7-4	Yūma	J13	Asakōryū	7-4	O
3	5-6	Chiyosakae	J14	Azumaryū	0-2-9	X
O	4-2	Hakuyōzan	Ms1	Takerufuji	5-1	O
			Ms2	Ōshōumi	3-3	1
1	3-3	Tochimusashi	Ms3	Kitadaichi	3-3	1
X	2-4	Fukai	Ms4	Tsushimanada	3-3	1
			Ms5	Ōtsuji	2-4	X

Demotion queue: Hakuōhō, Azumaryū, Hitoshi, Chiyosakae, Tenshōhō
Promotion queue: Hakuyōzan, Takerufuji, Kitaharima, Ōshōumi, Tochimusashi, Kitadaichi, Tsushimanada

Hitoshi's 10th loss all but opens up a third slot in jūryō next basho. Kitaharima is only one win from claiming a zenshō and that third spot, but if he fails, it's a toss-up between all of Ōshōumi, Tochimusashi, Kitadaichi, and Tsushimanada who are all 3-3. Ōtsuji and Fukai removed themselves from contention by going MK today.

The imbalance in makuuchi ripples down to here, and we see the first exchange bout with Ōshōumi taking on Chiyosakae. Chiyosakae can still save himself even if he loses tomorrow, unlike his endangered makuuchi counterparts, but Ōshōumi will need to win to even stand a chance at promotion.

Edited November 25, 2023 by Seiyashi

[Reonito 1,783]

15 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Kitaharima just henka'd. He really wants this promotion, I guess. 

Not quite a henka, he met the initial charge then quickly shifted. Anyway, for someone his size, wiliness is essential to have lasted 20+ years, and this has always been a part of his game.

[Gurowake 4,151]

Kitaharima's final opponent will likely be Satorufuji, who made Makushita with only 5 career Ozumo losses while coming out of high school, so he's clearly a top prospect.  However, one of the losses was against Kitaharima last basho, so the veteran may have a better chance than I'd otherwise expect against the rookie.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Gurowake

[Reonito 1,783]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Promotion queue: Takayasu, Midorifuji, Atamifuji, Ura

At the moment, among the MK-trending joi maegashira, I have Shodai and Nishikigi ahead of Ura in the queue, not that any of them are likely to come into play

[Jakusotsu 6,394]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Promotion queue: Takayasu, Midorifuji, Atamifuji, Ura

Is that another cruel jinx?

[Tigerboy1966 1,634]

15 hours ago, Bunbukuchagama said:

Kitaharima just henka'd. He really wants this promotion, I guess. 

Understandable as this could be his last best chance. If he stalls at 6-1 (and the Satorufuji kid is very dangerous), he will be up at Ms1 which is not an unmixed blessing. Yes you do only need a 4-3 to get promotion, but you have to face-off against the cream of the division in the first week AND have to fight at juryo guys if the numbers don't synchronise.

Edited November 22, 2023 by Tigerboy1966
ce

[Reonito 1,783]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Kitaharima's final opponent will likely be Satorufuji, who made Makushita with only 5 career Ozumo losses while coming out of high school, so he's clearly a top prospect.  However, one of the losses was against Kitaharima last basho, so the veteran may have a better chance than I'd otherwise expect against the rookie.

I'd say certain final opponent, no? They're the only two undefeated guys left, and there are no restrictions against matching them up.

[Reonito 1,783]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Demotion queue: Kotoekō, Kitanowaka, Nishikifuji, Rōga, Tōhakuryū

Takarafuji is not looking so hot either. Do we know for sure Kotoeko won't try to reenter? 

[Gurowake 4,151]

30 minutes ago, Reonito said:

I'd say certain final opponent, no? They're the only two undefeated guys left, and there are no restrictions against matching them up.

Until it's actually scheduled, I leave open the possibility that they'll do something else, because you never know.

[Reonito 1,783]

5 minutes ago, Gurowake said:

Until it's actually scheduled, I leave open the possibility that they'll do something else, because you never know.

That's fair, but I think it would unprecedented to not match them up, assuming both are able to compete.