The Komusubi situation...

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Last time the list was pretty much alive for most of the interbasho-lull only because of discussions on the Komusubi situation. This time: Nada... (eh, or rather, not Nada ;-) )

Is this because:

a) Everybody knows exactly how the sanyaku will look in Kyushu

b) No one knows at all, and don't want to flaunt their ignorance.

If a), could someone please tell me (Blushing...)

If b), then I'm first, so everybody making comments can say that however stupid they look, I look more stupid :-)

So, what's going to happen. Basically: Two or three Komusubi???

Since I always start on my GTB at most one day before deadline, I didn't really realize this intricate problem, but now I'm really stumped. Will Kotomitsuki get a third slot or not?

It seems quite clear that Wakanosato and Kyokutenho will be Sekiwake. It could be argued that Takamisakari will take a third Sekiwake slot, but I tend to say he'll become Komusubi East. Then Iwakiyama at Komusubi west, and the troubles begin...

If Kotomitsuki DOES get to be Komusubi, Tochinonada goes into M01e, Toki at M01w and Tosanoumi at M02e. After that, it's starting to need some creative banzuke-making.

If Kotomitsuki does NOT get to be Komusubi, it's not at all clear what will happen. Tochinonada at M01e, Kotomitsuki at M01w and Toki, Tosanoumi at M02 seems probable but far from certain.

But this is all my view, and I don't even know who will be Komusubi, so I suppose that might not be worth much :-/

So, what do you all think??? :-)

[Kintamayama 47,178]

I guess that could be one of the reasons that 7 of the top ten ranked players have yet to submit their respective guesses.. I know Yubi will be entering, but that still leaves 6..

CHICKENS!!! :-)

[Asashosakari 20,223]

I've procrastinated on sending in my guess because I'm not at all sure, either. :-) I'm inclined to go with my first feeling though, which was this possibility you listed:

It seems quite clear that Wakanosato and Kyokutenho will be Sekiwake. It could be argued that Takamisakari will take a third Sekiwake slot, but I tend to say he'll become Komusubi East. Then Iwakiyama at Komusubi west, and the troubles begin...

[...]

If Kotomitsuki does NOT get to be Komusubi, it's not at all clear what will happen. Tochinonada at M01e, Kotomitsuki at M01w and Toki, Tosanoumi at M02 seems probable but far from certain.

Just a gut feeling though, because things seem to fall into place more nicely than with 3 Komusubi...but not like that has ever stopped the Kyokai before. (Blushing...)

Edited October 25, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Takanorappa 97]

It's not the komusubi that's holding me off.

I'm procratisinating because of the gaps at around M5-M7. One more day, and I flip a coin. (note: not an intentioal reference to Dubya...)

Edited October 25, 2003 by Takanorappa

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

I've procrastinated on sending in my guess because I'm not at all sure, either. :-) I'm inclined to go with my first feeling though, which was this possibility you listed:

It seems quite clear that Wakanosato and Kyokutenho will be Sekiwake. It could be argued that Takamisakari will take a third Sekiwake slot, but I tend to say he'll become Komusubi East. Then Iwakiyama at Komusubi west, and the troubles begin...

[...]

If Kotomitsuki does NOT get to be Komusubi, it's not at all clear what will happen. Tochinonada at M01e, Kotomitsuki at M01w and Toki, Tosanoumi at M02 seems probable but far from certain.

Just a gut feeling though, because things seem to fall into place more nicely than with 3 Komusubi...but not like that has ever stopped the Kyokai before. (Blushing...)

Well, it's going to be interesting in any case. I'm leaning towards a three-Komusubi solution, but we'll see ;-)

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Well, it's going to be interesting in any case. I'm leaning towards a three-Komusubi solution, but we'll see ;-)

If it's any help in making your decision - you may recall my gut feeling about the Komusubi slots last time was to pencil in Takamisakari instead of Tosanoumi. A spectacular success it was, too. (Blushing...) :-)

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

Two komusubi is plenty enough.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Two komusubi is plenty enough.

Don't say so. It just convinces me more that I'm completely out of my mind in guessing there will be three. ;-)

And still... :-)

Hm... That choice will probably pretty much mean I'm out of contention in the GTB rankings for a year or so (Blushing...)

[Mark Buckton 1]

With the GTB don't we get a confirmation mail back?

I didn't.

Personally, the ranking problems the above refer to confused me for so long that I did resort to tossing coins.

Connected but side note perhaps - what is the etiquette regarding discussing the banzuke? I'll be in Ryogoku tomorrow ready for the 6am release but would rather not annoy by posting here that which you would prefer to see for yourselves.

Advice?

ANR

[Fujisan 533]

Honestly?

I think we could be talking 3 Komosubi and 3 sekiwake,just dont ask me how that will the rest of the division.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Connected but side note perhaps - what is the etiquette regarding discussing the banzuke?  I'll be in Ryogoku tomorrow ready for the 6am release but would rather not annoy by posting here that which you would prefer to see for yourselves.

Advice?

Considering that usually almost everybody here waits impatiently for the new banzuke, and that the news first tends to come from online newspapers and news agencies anyway (instead of waiting for the "official" publishing on the Kyokai site that normally takes its sweet time to get updated), I think you can safely post any and all details as soon as you get your hands on them. :-)

Edited October 26, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Mark Buckton 1]

Thanks Asa-san.

Any objections from anyone though - please post before tomorrow.

ANR

[Zentoryu 154]

Thanks Asa-san.

Any objections from anyone though - please post before tomorrow.

ANR

What objections? Usually it's a mad scramble to see who can be the first to post the new banzuke. :-)

[Fujisan 533]

I think thats unanimous dont you?

I wanna see it like two days ago,if you get my meaning.

[Mark Buckton 1]

Thanks Asa-san.

Any objections from anyone though - please post before tomorrow.

ANR

What objections? Usually it's a mad scramble to see who can be the first to post the new banzuke. :-)

Well then the race is on.

Released at 6am (did ask the Kyokai to make it 10ish but got a blank stare and silence)

On this page at 8ish if all goes well (times - Japan local of course)

ANR

what's the prize for being first anyhow?

[Jesinofuji 11]

Here's what I think our Sanyaku will be:

SE: Wakanosato

SW: Kyokutenho

KE: Takamisakari

KW: Tochinonada

Here's why:

Tochinonada scored a kachikoshi at M1. If he isn't promoted that would mean he stays at the same rank dispite a kachikoshi, and this is somehting the banzuke-writers want to avoid. Iwakiyama scored will at M5 with 11-4, and it would be enough to get him a komusubi slot if there was room up there, but I don't think its enough to get him into an extra 3rd slot. M1 will be high enough a jump for him.

However, I have yet to score a kachikoshi in Guess the Banzuke so it might be best to ignore the above when making your entry.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

KW: Tochinonada

Here's why:

Tochinonada scored a kachikoshi at M1.  If he isn't promoted that would mean he stays at the same rank dispite a kachikoshi, and this is somehting the banzuke-writers want to avoid.

Not really...they don't seem to mind half-rank promotions at high altitudes, which more often than not means something like M2e -> M1w, but M1w -> M1e is seen fairly regularly, too. (Latest example being Tosanoumi on the Hatsu banzuke earlier this year. M2e -> M1w happened on the same banzuke with Miyabiyama, as well as with Kyokutenho two months later.)

I feel a bit sorry for 'nada though if that's indeed what happens - earlier this year he was only promoted from M2e to M1e with a 9-6, so it'll be sort of a repeat for him. :-) Other guys with more favorable banzuke situations have managed to jump to Sekiwake in such cases, of course...

[Asashosakari 20,223]

To further muddy the waters here, I've dug up a couple of tables I made last month when the Komusubi discussion was first raging. (If I recall, I didn't post them back then because the discussion had already died by the time I got done with 'em.)

At any rate, they operate on the assumption that in cases of close Komusubi promotions, the Kyokai just might look at the quality of opponents for the guys in question. That assumption seems sensible to me, but you might think I'm nuts. :-) In other words, YMMV, so take this with a grain of salt.

I'm pretty sure I looked through results back to 1998 or so, but all 3 cases (small sample, I know...) are from 2002 and 2003. I guess GTB really has gotten more difficult lately. (Blushing...) The letters listed in the 'Opponents' column stand for the ranks of the 15 rikishi that each guy faced, with Y, O, S, K being self-explanatory, I think. M are Maegashira ranked higher than the rikishi himself, m are those ranked lower. For comparison, this month's case is listed as well. Here we go...

Basho	Rank	Rikishi	Record	Opponents
2002.01	M3e	Tochinonada	8-7	YOOOOSSKKMMmmmm
	M6e	Aminishiki	10-5	OSKMMMmmmmmmmmm
	promoted to 2nd Komusubi: Tochinonada
2002.09	M4w	Takanowaka	8-7	YYOOSKMMMmmmmmm
	M6e	Hokutoriki	9-6	MMMMMmmmmmmmmmm
	promoted to 2nd Komusubi: Takanowaka
2003.07	M3w	Takamisakari	9-6	YYOOOOSSKMmmmmm
	M5e	Tosanoumi	10-5	YOOOSMMMmmmmmmm
	promoted to 2nd Komusubi: Tosanoumi
2003.09	M1w	Tochinonada	8-7	YOOOOSSKKmmmmmm
	M5e	Iwakiyama	11-4	YOKMMMMMmmmmmmm
	M6e	Kotomitsuki	11-4	YOSMMMMMmmmmmmm
	promoted to 2nd Komusubi: ?
	promoted to 3rd Komusubi, if any: ?

Conventional wisdom would probably have promoted Aminishiki over Tochinonada in the first one. What may have hurt Ami is that he only faced his 3 sanyaku opponents in the last three days as he wasn't really in joi-jin territory. Takanowaka-Hokutoriki doesn't look too surprising to me, based on that data. On Takamisakari-Tosanoumi, I thought that Sakari would make it, of course, but after throwing together that table, I'm not so surprised anymore that they went with Tosanoumi, as both had substantial sanyaku opposition.

The current case is not really like the other three, especially because of the wider spread in results (three win difference instead of just one or two), so make of this stuff what you will. ;-)

For GTB players, the important question probably is whether Kotomitsuki might be ranked ahead of Tochinonada, as that's the one possibility that would definitely introduce a third Komusubi slot. (Unless they do the probably unprecedented thing of leaving 'nada at the same rank and putting Mickey at M1e.) If you subscribe to all the above, I dare say that Kotomitsuki's small number of sanyaku opponents in Aki would indicate him ending up behind Tochinonada (who may or may not become a Komusubi), but it's not definite at all.

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Kintamayama 47,178]

what's the prize for being first anyhow?

Well, many thankful fans, I guess..anyhow,you stand no chance against the Internet dwellers here..they are very quick. We are talking FULL MAKUUCHI banzuke release, nothing less. We shall see..

And yes, you're suposed to get an e-mail confirmation for GTB, but it doesn't work. Just check the site to see if your name is there. It is, BTW..