OK, who's gonna be the second KOMUSUBI?

[Zenjimoto 40]

Let's hear it, people. Is it really a toincoss situation?

Cheers

Zenjimoto, of course!

[Tokimori 0]

Why not three komusubi? (Applauding...)

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

I voted Takamisakari because I'm feeling mean today and wanted Tosanoumi in the maegashira grinder (Applauding...)

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Why not three komusubi? (Applauding...)

It

[Fujisan 533]

I voted for Robocop but Im far from sure-Will his Sansho prize play any part in the decision?

[Zentoryu 154]

There is really no way that Tosanoumi should pass Takamisakari on the banzuke based on the promotion/demotion guidelines. So I think they will either both be Komusubi with Toki, or it will be only Takamisakari and Toki at Komusubi with Tosanoumi ending up at M1.

That said, one never knows what the men in black will do. They've surprised us all in the past. (Applauding...)

Edited July 26, 2003 by Zentoryu

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

There is really no way that Tosanoumi should pass Takamisakari on the banzuke based on the promotion/demotion guidelines.

M5E, Tosanoumi, 10-5

M3W, Takamisakari, 9-6

How could Sakke keep Tosa behind him and as a maegashira?!?!?!

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

There is really no way that Tosanoumi should pass Takamisakari on the banzuke based on the promotion/demotion guidelines.

M5E, Tosanoumi, 10-5

M3W, Takamisakari, 9-6

How could Sakke keep Tosa behind him and as a maegashira?!?!?!

Although the two are more or less equal, one of them has to become Komusubi, and at that altitude, three half-ranks often means that the higher one also will be higher ranked on the next banzuke (and the same actually often applies to demotions). I agree though that this isn

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

M5E, Tosanoumi, 10-5

M3W, Takamisakari, 9-6

M03e: Wakanoyama (9-6, Kanto-sho)

M04w: Tochiazuma (10-5)

M5E, 10-5 -> imaginary M0E

M3W, 9-6 -> imaginary M0W

Tosa predicatably ahead of Sakke.

M3E, 9-6 -> imaginary M0E

M4W, 10-5 -> imaginary M-1W

Tochiazuma predictably ahead of Waka.

My money is still on Tosa's komusubi promotion... (Applauding...)

[Tokimori 0]

If it isn't likely with three komusubi, then Takamisakari will get it due to his incredible status amongst the fans...

This is a 50-50 situation and I believe his popularity will be the deciding factor... (Applauding...)

[Takanobaka 0]

What about 10-ho? 6-9 doesn't seem like enough to knock someone all the way down to Maegashira. That's why I'm somewhat inclined to think he may be K2E....

However, on this poll, I'm going with Robocop....

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

What about 10-ho?  6-9 doesn't seem like enough to knock someone all the way down to Maegashira.  That's why I'm somewhat inclined to think he may be K2E....

However, on this poll, I'm going with Robocop....

One might think 6-9 should be good enough to stay in sanyaku, but in fact it

Edited July 26, 2003 by Yubiquitoyama

[Zentoryu 154]

How could Sakke keep Tosa behind him and as a maegashira?!?!?!

Sheesh, nothing to get upset about. (Eh?) (In a state of confusion...) (Laughing...) :-D

They both end up at the same rank based on their records (east or west). There likely won't be two Komusubi spots open, so I tend to think the Kyokai would give the open slot to Takamisakari rather than have Tosanoumi actually pass him on the banzuke (by a whole rank), which shouldn't happen according to the Kyokai's own guidelines for promotion. It's just not very likely, IMHO.

I'm not saying Tosanoumi shouldn't be a Komusubi, in fact the simplest thing to do under these circumstances would be to promote them both. (It's what I would do). But it's hard to tell if this is what the Kyokai will likely be doing. I somehow doubt it... (Being unsure...)

If they go with just promoting one of them, Takamisakari has too many things working in his favor at the moment. He is two full ranks ahead of Tosanoumi on the banzuke. He went 9-6 against a more difficult schedule and he's also more popular (though I doubt this will have as much influence as some people seem to think it will have). It seems to me the Kyokai would likely be more satisfied with promoting him (a promotion that is deserving and easily justified) and leaving Tosanoumi at M1 as Tosa still gets a reasonable 4 spot promotion. They tend to favor the higher ranked rikishi under these circumstances.

But this is just my opinion. As Yubi says, nothing is written in stone. This could very well go the opposite way and Tosanoumi will end up as the second Komusubi as you expect. :-D

No one knows what the Kyokai will do, we can only make somewhat educated guesses. My guess is based on what I've seen them do in the past in regards to promoting rikishi who *should* end up at the same rank based on their respective win/loss records, but have only one spot open at said rank.

Hopefully they will promote them both, as I think both are deserving. (Clapping wildly...)

Edited July 26, 2003 by Zentoryu

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

They both end up at the same rank based on their records (east or west).

(...)

There likely won't be two Komusubi spots open, so I tend to think the Kyokai would give the open slot to Takamisakari rather than have Tosanoumi actually pass him on the banzuke (by a whole rank)

(...)

...which shouldn't happen according to the Kyokai's own guidelines for promotion.

If they go with just promoting one of them, Takamisakari has too many things working in his favor at the moment. He is two full ranks ahead of Tosanoumi on the banzuke.

(...)

He went 9-6 against a more difficult schedule and he's also more popular (though I doubt this will have as much influence as some people seem to think it will have).

(...)

It seems to me the Kyokai would likely be more satisfied with promoting him (a promotion that is deserving and easily justified) and leaving Tosanoumi at M1 as Tosa still gets a reasonable 4 spot promotion. They tend to favor the higher ranked rikishi under these circumstances.

More or less, Tosa being ahead.

A whole rank (actually kind of half a mai-me the difference being the border of sanyaku & joi-jin between them), yes, due to an inevitable rounding error.

What are those guidelines? I'm aware of only three. Kachikoshi rikishi are never demoted*, makekoshi rikishi are never promoted* and rikishi with the same record keep their relative order between themselves. None of these guidelines supports putting Sakke ahead Tosa.

* With exceptions at both ends of banzuke.

He's not full two ranks ahead. Merely one and half mai-me (M3W, M5E) which is the deciding factor in Tosa's favour.

Schedule and popularity have no influence, merely numbers decide.

M5E to KW with 10-5 is more reasonable than M3W to KW with 9-6. Tosa's promotion wouldn't be any more unreasonable than is Toki's. Sakke's promotion to komusubi under these circumstances would be an injustice of cosmical proportions. As much as I like him...

Edited July 26, 2003 by Kotoseiya Yuichi

[Zentoryu 154]

Indeed, Tosa being ahead.

Point conceded. (Waving white flag...)

He's not full two ranks ahead. Merely one and half mai-me (M3W, M5E) which is the deciding factor in Tosa's favour.

Nit-picker. (Clapping wildly...)

Schedule and popularity have no influence, merely numbers decide.

They might, they might not, how do we know? I tend to think that they won't, at least not as much as some think they will. Though I still believe Taka will get the spot regardless, if Tosa gets the promotion over Taka, I won't complain. (In a state of confusion...)

M5E to KW with 10-5 is more reasonable than M3W to KW with 9-6. Tosa's promotion wouldn't be any more unreasonable than is Toki's.

I never said it would be unreasonable, I said he deserves to be promoted. I just think Taka is more likely to get it than him. You seem to be certain that Tosa will be promoted. I don't think it's that clear cut a case. But I could be wrong, and so could you. The point is, we don't know what the Kyokai will do. They could just as easily promote either man, or throw us all off and promote them both. (Laughing...)

Sakke's promotion to komusubi under these circumstances would be an injustice of cosmical proportions. As much as I like him...

Well the Japanese media doesn't seem to think so as they've already annointed him a Komusubi. "His promotion to Sanyaku is secured," or so they say.

But all of "our" opinions, including those of the media, are meaningless anyway. The Kyokai will do whatever it wants.

I would not be surprised if Tosanoumi takes the west slot. I just don't expect it to happen. You do.

As Kintamayama is so fond of saying... we shall see... (Being unsure...)

Edited July 26, 2003 by Zentoryu

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

M5E, Tosanoumi, 10-5

M3W, Takamisakari, 9-6

M03e: Wakanoyama (9-6, Kanto-sho)

M04w: Tochiazuma (10-5)

M5E, 10-5 -> imaginary M0E

M3W, 9-6 -> imaginary M0W

Tosa predicatably ahead of Sakke.

M3E, 9-6 -> imaginary M0E

M4W, 10-5 -> imaginary M-1W

Tochiazuma predictably ahead of Waka.

My money is still on Tosa's komusubi promotion... (Clapping wildly...)

It

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

We shall see. WE SHALL SEE! (Clapping wildly...) (Being unsure...) (In a state of confusion...) (Getting punched...)

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

What are those guidelines? I'm aware of only three. Kachikoshi rikishi are never demoted*, makekoshi rikishi are never promoted* and rikishi with the same record keep their relative order between themselves. None of these guidelines supports putting Sakke ahead Tosa.

* With exceptions at both ends of banzuke.

To be precise, neither do they support Tosanoumi. (Showing tongue at someone...)

Really, even if Tosanoumi would only be half of a maime behind Takamisakari, he would not be able to call "rule obstruction!" if Takamisakari is ahead of him next banzuke. (In a state of confusion...)

And in the present case it really is not an "injustice of cosmic propotions"... Your calculation is a bit of a naive fallacy if I might say so. The number of cases where this really simple calculation has been "violated" could build a legion of rikishi searching justice. (Clapping wildly...)

And to be honest, the Kyōkai banzuke makers are unpredictable, sometimes they even make me laugh.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

To be precise, neither do they support Tosanoumi. (Showing tongue at someone...)

(...)

Really, even if Tosanoumi would only be half of a maime behind Takamisakari, he would not be able to call "rule obstruction!" if Takamisakari is ahead of him next banzuke. (In a state of confusion...)

(...)

Your calculation is a bit of a naive fallacy if I might say so. The number of cases where this really simple calculation has been "violated" could build a legion of rikishi searching justice. (Clapping wildly...)

Never claimed so.

You mean if Tosa were M4E and Sakke M3W and their respective scores were 10-5 and 9-6, you wouldn't mind seeing Sakke ahead in the next banzuke?!?! I would call that travesty of a banzuke.

My actions are naive in general but in this case all the other options are even more so. I have no doubts these calculations have been violated several times before. I've played GTB few times. Didn't the rikishi once start a rebellion of sorts for this kind of a debute?

Still Tosa belongs ahead of Sakke. You can all come to ring my doorbell and tell it to me face to face, but I still won't accept your reasoning. Stubborn middle name mine is. Collective delusion under are all you. (Showing tongue at someone...)

[Asashosakari 19,668]

I'll throw in my opinion in favour of Takamisakari as the second Komusubi. (In a state of confusion...) Perhaps I'm just imagining it (I've never tried to keep stats on it), but in my opinion that "promotion in mai = wins minus losses" guideline just doesn't apply as strongly when it comes to spare Sekiwake and Komusubi slots. Rather, unless the case is very clear, they seem to be promoting from the top down. A 9-6 M01 will have a hard time being promoted over a Komusubi with 8-7, and if I looked hard enough, I could probably find a case where even a 10-5 at M01 didn't get somebody promoted ahead of an 8-7 Komusubi.

I just doubt the fact that Tosa is only 3 half-ranks ahead of 'sakari instead of "safe" 4 half-ranks plays any role at that banzuke altitude. But yeah, we'll see. (Clapping wildly...)

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

I just doubt the fact that Tosa is only 3 half-ranks ahead of 'sakari instead of "safe" 4 half-ranks (...)

Tosa is behind, not ahead. (In a state of confusion...) We shall see...

[Asashosakari 19,668]

I just doubt the fact that Tosa is only 3 half-ranks ahead of 'sakari instead of "safe" 4 half-ranks (...)

Tosa is behind, not ahead. (In a state of confusion...) We shall see...

Whoops, small blackout there, I meant to have their names the other way around. (Clapping wildly...) Thanks for the heads-up.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

I'll throw in my opinion in favour of Takamisakari as the second Komusubi. (In a state of confusion...) Perhaps I'm just imagining it (I've never tried to keep stats on it), but in my opinion that "promotion in mai = wins minus losses" guideline just doesn't apply as strongly when it comes to spare Sekiwake and Komusubi slots. Rather, unless the case is very clear, they seem to be promoting from the top down. A 9-6 M01 will have a hard time being promoted over a Komusubi with 8-7, and if I looked hard enough, I could probably find a case where even a 10-5 at M01 didn't get somebody promoted ahead of an 8-7 Komusubi.

I just doubt the fact that Tosa is only 3 half-ranks ahead of 'sakari instead of "safe" 4 half-ranks plays any role at that banzuke altitude. But yeah, we'll see. (Clapping wildly...)

There is a world of difference between this case and those you mention. There is a definite line between M01 and Komusubi which makes for a bigger difference than anywhere else on the banzuke (save possibly the Juryo/Makunouchi line). In top Maegashira though, these three half-ranks very much is touch and go and no doubt about it. It

[Asashosakari 19,668]

In top Maegashira though, these three half-ranks very much is touch and go and no doubt about it. It

Edited July 28, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Zenjimoto 40]

OK, here's one: the NSK will pass over Toki, since everybody expects him to go 4-11 in Aki anyways, and instead promotes Takamisakari and Tosanoumi to Komusubi, with Toki at M1w behind Tochinonada!! ;-) (Annoyed...) (Bleh!)

Cheers

Zenjimoto