Juryo Division title winner?

[Ryukaze 0]

Who's your pick to win it all in the always impossible to predict Juryo division? I'll go ahead and throw one out there with recently demoted maegashira'ee "Jumonji." (Nodding yes...)

Edited November 10, 2006 by Ryukaze

[Jakusotsu 6,188]

I went with Tochiozan in Juryo Game.

(see the whole selection stats here)

[Shimpu 0]

I vote for my man Yoshikaze (Nodding yes...)

[Asashosakari 19,943]

Taking a couple of warmup laps in high Makushita usually does a prospect pretty well, so I'll go with Goeido.

[Jejima 1,443]

Wakanosato - depending on how much he has recovered of course. But even a 70% okay Sanyaku regular should cause lower Juryo rikishi probems (who might also not all be 100%)

Edited November 11, 2006 by Jejima

[Tikozan 4]

Difficult to say. Why not an surprise winner? Takanowaka or Tamarikido.

Or Wakanosato, if he is strong enough again.

[Fay 1,677]

I cross my fingers for Mokonami and somehow I still believe in Jumonji.

Edited November 11, 2006 by Fay

[aderechelsea 125]

Tochisakae ... you heard it here first .... (Holiday feeling...)

(Wakanosato as second choice because i am not sure he is healthy)

[yamaneko 2]

IMO, this is the most intriguing juryo since baruto left. Weve got tochiozan and goeido. Youve got mokonami who looked destined for makuuchi, now looks near destined for makushita if he keeps up the poor sumo of late. Wakanosato is in lower juryo. Oga of course. Tokitsumi possible back to 100%?

I predict juryo winner will have 12-3 record.

[yamaneko 2]

Goeido lost his sekitori debut today. Wakanosato wins. Tochiozan wins. Oga wins vs. satoyama...i would have liked to see that rare "middleweight" sekitori bout.

[Araiguma_Rascal 0]

If Wakanosato is back to health, I think he must win. It was not so long ago that he was on the cusp of Ozeki.

[yamaneko 2]

Wow, after only day 3, now only 3 remaining undefeateds: Wakanosato, Oga, Jumonji.

Goeido still winless as a sekitori. I thought the wall he heatted a while back was all finished, but might have found another one.

[Asashosakari 19,943]

Goeido still winless as a sekitori. I thought the wall he heatted a while back was all finished, but might have found another one.

It's my fault, I picked him in Rotosumo. Instant kiss of death for any Juryo rikishi.

[Tikozan 4]

Will Wakanosato have a chance, to come directly back to Makuuchi?

I think yes, but only with 15-0 or 14-1.

What do you think?

[yamaneko 2]

And then there were two...

Only oga and jumonji undefeated, i bet both will have lost by day 7 or earlier.

[yamaneko 2]

Wow. Even faster than i though.

As of day 5, juryo has no undefeateds.

[yamaneko 2]

Early likelies for makushita demotion:

Hokutoiwa, Kambayashi.

Its only day 6, and not only are there NO undefeateds left, but there are now only 3 left with one loss. WHen this kind of thing happens juryo basho after juryo basho, it just really makes barutos zensho that much more amazing to me.

Goeido now has tied rival tochiozan at 3-3. WOnder when we will see these two go at it.

[aderechelsea 125]

Hakkaku is in a deeeeeep slumb ... (Help me...)

[Asashosakari 19,943]

Its only day 6, and not only are there NO undefeateds left, but there are now only 3 left with one loss. WHen this kind of thing happens juryo basho after juryo basho, it just really makes barutos zensho that much more amazing to me.

How so? If you're sufficiently strong, it's certainly easier to go 15-0 in a division full of mediocrities than in one that includes half a dozen other candidates for 10+ wins.

[yamaneko 2]

But, how many great guys have come along in the last 5 years? Hakuho, Asashoryu, Kotooshu. THe past 10 years? Miyabiyama, Kaio, Tochiazuma, the past 20 years? Akebono, musashimaru, etc. etc. No one was able to do it. ANd, the fact that its always so even (juryo) really shows how much head and shoulders above everyone else baruto was.

[aderechelsea 125]

the timing was good for Baruto.

he got skills alright but the Juryo division didn't thrive with quality at that point ....

if you take a look at his opponents back then you can only pick Homasho out of the lot for some quality and form. (sorry Kaiho ...)

[Tikozan 4]

Goeido lost his sekitori debut today. Wakanosato wins. Tochiozan wins. Oga wins vs. satoyama...i would have liked to see that rare "middleweight" sekitori bout.

Goeido from 0-3 to 3-3, he's on the way up. (Applauding...)

[Asashosakari 19,943]

the timing was good for Baruto.

he got skills alright but the Juryo division didn't thrive with quality at that point ....

Yup. Let's look at it this way - if his appendectomy hadn't sent him back into Makushita for a spell, would he have gone 15-0 from J4w? Highly doubtful. He'd have earned his Makuuchi promotion with a good-but-not-great record, just like all the guys yamaneko mentioned did.

If, as a series of experiments, you could send a current joi-jin rikishi into lower Juryo, fully healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 3 zensho in 20 runs*. Just take somebody like Tokitenku...he managed to go 12-3 in lower Juryo at a time when he proved barely strong enough for lower Makuuchi right afterwards. He's much stronger and better now, and Juryo is a bit weaker. Or Kokkai, who did go 14-1...I just watched his only loss again (against Kasugao), and he basically sleepwalked into a kotenage. That could easily have been zensho.

I'm not trying to downplay Baruto's achievement, but saying that the current weakness in Juryo makes it more impressive is like saying that a Sandanme yusho is more amazing than a Makushita yusho.

* Edit: Well, there's nothing like quantifying gut feelings with hard data...going by Doitsuyama's ratings, Baruto's opponents that basho averaged 1882 ratings points. Steady Joi-jin rikishi are generally between 2150 and 2200 points, perhaps even a bit higher. But let's be conservative and put them at 300 points higher than Baruto's average opponent. For simplicity we'll treat every opponent as having that average rating of 1882; that gives us a 85.3% chance of the joi-jin rikishi winning each bout, or 9.2% chance of going zensho. Looks like my guess of 3 in 20 was a bit high, but not by much.

Edited November 17, 2006 by Asashosakari

[aderechelsea 125]

i am so gratefull that there are people like Asashosakari who can express more eloquently (and even backed up with numbers) the things i want to say.

i praise you sir ...

[yamaneko 2]

Well, no matter what, he did something almost no one has done in the last 50 years, and there have been hundreds of different sceanarios for people, even future yokozunas to go through.

When i mention current weakkness, its an ongoing thing, from barutos zensho until now. from before his zensho. The equality is really mind boggling. THus, it impresses me that baruto was so heads and shoulders above everyone, including ex makuuchi, and other up and comers like homasho.

If kokkai would have pulled that zensho i would have given him all the props in the world as well. But im sure there too have been makuuchi guys who had an injury, and dropped down to juryo, but then came back at full strength, and were unable to get zensho.

I really dont see anyone else zenshoing this year or next in juryo. The three up and coming guys, goeido, tochiozan, wakanoho do not have what it takes IMO to do it, even if something were to happen where they to drop down like baruto did due to injury.

But back on topic....

ANyone have any favorites so far to take juryo yusho? I dont think oga will make it. Wakanosato still the favorite for most of you?