Promotion/Demotion watch

[yamaneko 2]

Hakuho lost today, do you guys think with two losses, theres almost no chance of promotion unless perhaps asa loses one, and then to hakuho?

Miyabiyama was said to keep his hopes alive today...how many more do you think he has to win to get promoted, and do you think its possible?

With the top 3 maegashira doing so poorly, Do you think baruto has a shot at komusubi with 8/9 wins? (looks like all west and east maegashira might be makekoshi).

Will kisenosato rally to keep the komusubi rank, or fall victim to the 4-11 debut that the gaijins seem to get at that rank?

Is takamisakari in danger of juryo demotion if he looses the rest of his bouts?

[bonobo 0]

Will kisenosato rally to keep the komusubi rank, or fall victim to the 4-11 debut that the gaijins seem to get at that rank?

Perhaps not exactly a coincidence but I was thinking about the same thing just before I saw your post. Considering who his opponents have been I'd say 3-6 is actually very good record for Kisenosato. I believe days 1-8 were the most difficult part of the tournament for him and he survived it reasonably well. It'll get (marginally) easier from now on. I think Kisenosato will do much better that 4-11. I wouldn't bet on it but my (bold) prediction is that he'll achieve kachi-koshi.

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

Hakuho lost today, do you guys think with two losses, theres almost no chance of promotion unless perhaps asa loses one, and then to hakuho?

I still think a 13-2 would be enough for promotion even with a jun-yusho, considered his record over the last four basho then. And, your condition starting with "unless" is unnecessary. How else should Hakuho keep two losses if not by beating Asashoryu? It will be difficult for Hakuho as he has to beat all ozeki and the yokozuna on the way.

Miyabiyama was said to keep his hopes alive today...how many more do you think he has to win to get promoted, and do you think its possible?

A 10-5 should be enough for him, as he already has a 24-6 record over the last two basho, all in sanyaku. So he needs a 5-1, not easy giving that Asashoryu, Tochiazuma and Kotomitsuki still are waiting for him.

With the top 3 maegashira doing so poorly, Do you think baruto has a shot at komusubi with 8/9 wins? (looks like all west and east maegashira might be makekoshi).

At the current going even 8-7 would be enough for him, maybe even for the east komusubi. Who else is there for these slots besides Kokkai who should see some tougher opponents now?

Will kisenosato rally to keep the komusubi rank, or fall victim to the 4-11 debut that the gaijins seem to get at that rank?

Kisenosato is 3-6 but has already faced the whole sanyaku to see only the joi-jin maegashira now. This has happened frequently in the past, and unfortunately the candidates rarely beat the maegashira up. Maybe after facing the sanyaku one hasn't much energy left? Or maybe it's just the "law" of averages that some candidates are bound to get a good score against the sanyaku without really being strong... Anyway, my strength ratings give Kisenosato 3.42 wins in his last six bouts (if done against the highest ranked possible opponents, Roho included), so a 6-9 or 7-8 looks very likely.

Is takamisakari in danger of juryo demotion if he looses the rest of his bouts?

With 2-13 he is toast of course. Even 3-12 might not be enough.

[Tikozan 4]

(In a state of confusion...) It's an interesting question. The top 3 maegashira on the way to make-kochi, Asasekiryu will lost his rank, but who will be the new Komusubi?

And Kisenosato. Now he has a better chance to hold his rank. The matches against the Yokozuna, the Ozekis and the Sekiwakes he has behind itself.

Baruto has a good chance with 9-6, with 8-7 I think not.

Roho would have had a chance, but he's out.

Tamanoshima is maegashira 10, but if he would create a 13-2 or better, why not?

Kokkai is Maegashira 5 and in the moment on 6-3. With a 10-5 he would have a chance for the Komusubi Rank.

Hakuho must win the tournament for the promotion. But it's difficult. He's 2 victories behind Asashoryu.

Miyabiyama could be promoted with 11-4 with a little luck with 10-5.

GOOD LUCK FOR ALL!

Edited July 17, 2006 by Tikozan

[Shimpu 0]

Hakuho - I think he will finish this basho with 11:4 record (losses against Tochiazuma and Asashoryu). As for Miyabiyama he won't be promoted either (9-6). Kisenosato - I hope he will keep his rank but it will be very, very difficult. He has shown that he can do when he went 0:4 at the very end of last basho. 8-7. If he will fail I think Komusubi slots will be filled up by Futeno and Baruto.

Edited July 17, 2006 by Shimpu

[Asashosakari 20,250]

Before the basho I was secretly hoping that, if Hakuho fails to be promoted he should be getting a 12-3 jun-yusho. Simply because I'd really like to see a few people's reactions when the YDC extends his tsunatori run just like they did for Tochiazuma. (Of course, if they don't do it, then the egg's on my face, but that's a risk I'm willing to take. (In a state of confusion...))

Incidentally, in the chat earlier this year (either January or March, I don't recall) I predicted that Takamisakari would probably find himself in Juryo before the year is over. I suspect he'll manage to barely save himself this time, but I still stand by that prediction.

Edited July 17, 2006 by Asashosakari

[AsaMoe 0]

Simply because I'd really like to see a few people's reactions when the YDC extends his tsunatori run just like they did for Tochiazuma.

Maybe i am a bit nitpicky here, but Tochiazuma did NOT get a 12-3 Jun-Yusho

[Asashosakari 20,250]

Simply because I'd really like to see a few people's reactions when the YDC extends his tsunatori run just like they did for Tochiazuma.

Maybe i am a bit nitpicky here, but Tochiazuma did NOT get a 12-3 Jun-Yusho

Yes, sorry, regular 12-3 of course.

[Hakuyobaku 33]

As for the Komusubi Rank. I remember one time Mr. Kotomitsuki kept his Komusubi rank with a 7-8 performance. I don't remember the details well but the other candidates were Shimotori(ah..) Kokkai and Hakuho. Maybe that is a possibility considerin that there are not much suitable candidates.

Maybe Kakizoe can have a run to get a KK? Roho, provided he returns the day after tomorrow can have an impact on it too though i doubt he'll get promoted iven if he's eligible.

Kokkai, Futeno - depends on what they do in the remaining days.. Tamanoshima, well, no, he's too far out, I think

[yamaneko 2]

Should be an exciting next few days then.

[Asashosakari 20,250]

As for the Komusubi Rank. I remember one time Mr. Kotomitsuki kept his Komusubi rank with a 7-8 performance. I don't remember the details well but the other candidates were Shimotori(ah..) Kokkai and Hakuho. Maybe that is a possibility considerin that there are not much suitable candidates.

Mickey did it from the East slot though...for Kisenosato to stay with 7 wins, the second-best candidate from the Maegashira ranks probably would have to be extraordinarily bad (8-7 from M5 or somesuch).

[Shomishuu 0]

Even if Baruto is matched up against all of the six remaining sanyaku opponents, he is good enough to win at least two of those, and with that he would be a shoo-in for komusubi if Kisenosato goes down, considering the quality of the opponents he will have beaten. The only way he doesn't make komusubi is if Kisenosato hangs on to his slot and Kokkai goes by him because he gets the easier schedule.

Tamanoshima has no chance because if he wins a couple more, he'll be put in there against the big boys, where he'll be toasted.

Of course Futeno can still win 10 or Aminishiki could get 11..... (Yes, I AM kidding). B-)

Edited July 17, 2006 by Shomishuu