Sign in to follow this  
Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion discussion Haru 2013

Recommended Posts

Day 10:

A fairly good match between the two sekitori divisions this basho - looks like we're on course to about four demotions from makuuchi, with enough promotion candidates available to fill these spots. Injured Tochinowaka and Sagatsukasa are on the way down already and Kyokushuho almost certain to stage his makuuchi return after a bit more than a year.

M10 Tamawashi 2-8 (3)

M11

M12 Masunoyama 4-6 (2)

(x) 0-7-3 Tochinowaka M13 Sadanofuji 5-5 (1)

(2) 5-5 Chiyonokuni M14 Sagatsukasa 2-6-2 (x)

(2) 5-5 Daido M15 Sotairyu 3-7 (4)

(3) 5-5 Oiwato M16 Wakanosato 7-3 (1)

J1 Kotoyuki 3-7 (5)

(1) 8-2 Kyokushuho J2 Daikiho 7-3 (2)

(2) 7-3 Asahisho J3 Chiyootori 6-4 (3)

(4) 6-4 Homarefuji J4

J5 Tenkaiho 6-4 (4)

...

(3) 9-1 Azumaryu J8

...

J11 Asasekiryu 8-2 (5)

Things are looking differently between juryo and makushita. 5 sekitori currently need to go at least 3-2 to avoid demotion (+ kyujo Homasho) while nobody in makushita has done enough yet to qualify as a strong promotion contender. 4-3 in the promotion zone could end up very valuable this basho.

(?) kyujo Homasho J1

...

(1) 3-7 Wakakoyu J7

J8 Takanoyama 4-6 (1)

(3) 2-8 Miyabiyama J9 Tokushinho 4-6 (1)

(1) 5-5 Satoyama J10 Yoshiazuma 3-7 (3)

(3) 3-7 Kimurayama J11

(1) 6-4 Akiseyama J12 Kagamio 5-5 (2)

J13 Tochihiryu 6-4 (1)

(5) 3-7 Hochiyama J14 Sensho 4-6 (4)

3-2 Kitaharima Ms1

2-3 Arawashi Ms2

3-2 Kotokuni Ms3 Seiro 3-2

4-1 Chiyoarashi Ms4 Sadanoumi 2-3

3-2 Higonojo Ms5 Chiyoo 3-2

Ms6

5-0 Kamei Ms7

After already knocking Chiyomaru out of the race today Hochiyama gets the opportunity to do the same to the other Ms2 Arawashi tomorrow. In the lower division Kitaharima and Kotokuni face off in what's essentially a winner-gets-promoted battle, and Seiro and Higonojo also meet.

(Go Kotokuni!)

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 11:

Sotairyu has his back to the wall now, and fellow debutant Oiwato is in similarly dire straights. On the other hand, Oiwato's winning opponent Sadanofuji has saved himself, with Masunoyama and Tamawashi (suddenly coming alive) also victorious on the day.

On the juryo side things have become complicated for Homarefuji and Tenkaiho after their 5th losses. Kyokushuho is the first rikishi to definitely make a claim for a promotion slot, and Asahisho isn't far away now after reaching KK territory. Kotoyuki (another reanimated rikishi) continues to hang on at juryo-hitto.

One word about yusho-leading Azumaryu - as we've seen with Kyokushuho last basho, a strong record from the lower reaches of the division may be treated unfavourably for promotion. And potential debutants often seem to need to do even a bit more than rikishi who've been there before. (See e.g Asahisho vs Chiyonokuni/Fujiazuma/Takarafuji or Takayasu vs Kimurayama.) Given that, he'll probably need to finish 13-2 to be completely sure to get promoted, but as it looks I think 12-3 would also do it - especially as some of his potential competition are also rikishi who haven't been to makuuchi before (Daikiho, Chiyootori, Homarefuji).

M10 Tamawashi 3-8 (2)

M11

M12 Masunoyama 5-6 (1)

(x) 0-7-4 Tochinowaka M13 Sadanofuji 6-5 (o)

(2) 5-6 Chiyonokuni M14 Sagatsukasa 2-6-3 (x)

(2) 5-6 Daido M15 Sotairyu 3-8 (4)

(3) 5-6 Oiwato M16 Wakanosato 7-4 (1)

J1 Kotoyuki 4-7 (4)

(o) 9-2 Kyokushuho J2 Daikiho 7-4 (2)

(1) 8-3 Asahisho J3 Chiyootori 7-4 (2)

(4) 6-5 Homarefuji J4

J5 Tenkaiho 6-5 (4)

...

(2) 10-1 Azumaryu J8

...

J11 Asasekiryu 9-2 (4)

Two crossover bouts tomorrow with Chiyootori having the opportunity to pull down Sotairyu, and his Kokonoe stablemate Chiyonokuni getting challenged by Asahisho.

Between juryo and makushita we're not much wiser yet concerning the rikishi to be demoted. Hochiyama continues to hang on and eliminated another contender in the process, but Sensho has now joined him in needing to win all remaining bouts to avoid demotion. The two J14's actually haven't met yet, so in the unlikely case of both improving towards 7-7 they might be matched up on senshuraku to engineer a demotion between them. (Even more likely the bout could take place on Day 13 or 14 to keep both available for crossover matchups on Day 15.)

Among the other most endangered rikishi only Kimurayama managed to win, while Miyabiyama and Yoshiazuma moved closer to the exit. Wakakoyu hasn't looked much better this basho, but is at least safe for now after winning today.

Makushita now has two strong claims for promotion with division lead Kitaharima reaching KK (against Kotokuni) and Chiyoarashi improving to 5-1. Seiro beat Higonojo in the other direct matchup of promotion contenders. Arawashi was removed from consideration at the hands of Hochiyama as mentioned, and the other 2-3 Sadanoumi bowed out of the basho altogether. Just outside the promotion zone Kamei moved on to 6-0.

(?) kyujo Homasho J1

...

(o) 4-7 Wakakoyu J7

J8 Takanoyama 4-7 (1)

(3) 2-9 Miyabiyama J9 Tokushinho 4-7 (1)

(1) 5-6 Satoyama J10 Yoshiazuma 3-8 (3)

(2) 4-7 Kimurayama J11

(1) 6-5 Akiseyama J12 Kagamio 6-5 (1)

J13 Tochihiryu 6-5 (1)

(4) 4-7 Hochiyama J14 Sensho 4-7 (4)

4-2 Kitaharima Ms1

(x) 2-4 Arawashi Ms2

3-3 Kotokuni Ms3 Seiro 4-2

5-1 Chiyoarashi Ms4 Sadanoumi 2-3-1 (x)

3-3 Higonojo Ms5 Chiyoo 4-2

Ms6

6-0 Kamei Ms7

Given the lack of definite demotions, I suspect they'll skip the makushita 6-0 bout and give Kamei a different opponent instead - Kotokuni would be my guess. (Tough for me, I'd like to see both in juryo...) Higonojo probably has only theoretical chances by now - assuming the Kamei-Kotokuni matchup he's going to have at least 4 rikishi in front of him in the promotion queue, and 5 demotions are unlikely even counting Homasho as a possibility. (In fact, Higonojo should be even behind a 6-1 Kamei.) Chiyoo is a bit of a longshot as well, but should still have some hopes.

Chiyoarashi gets an early 7th bout in juryo tomorrow, facing Sensho who could fall to makekoshi. Kimurayama and Miyabiyama meet up, and Hochiyama has to continue his quest for KK against tougher opposition now, meeting Tokushoryu from the upper half of the division. (So far, 3 of Hochiyama's 4 wins have come against makushita opponents...) Yoshiazuma faces fellow demotion contender Satoyama, the latter with the chance to save himself.

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 12:

Things have cleared up significantly after today, especially in lower juryo, but let's start at the top as always. Daido won the matchup of demotion-threatened rikishi against Oiwato. The latter now needs to win all remaining bouts, joining Sotairyu in that predicament. Tamawashi's turnaround ended at the hands of Jokoryu and he now needs to win 2 out of 3. Wakanosato meanwhile reached KK territory and continues to show he's too good to drop to juryo outside of immediate injury troubles even at age 36.

On the juryo side Tenkaiho has said goodbye to his promotion hopes now, and Asahisho and Chiyootori made things a little bit more difficult for themselves by losing in makuuchi crossover action. Low-ranked Asasekiryu is also out of the running now with his loss to Kyokushuho in today's top bout. Azumaryu also lost, but still has some room to spare. Kotoyuki, Daikiho and Homarefuji continue to hang in there with wins.

Four exchanges still looks like the most likely outcome here, though it's far from clear who's going to accompany Kyokushuho on the way up.

M10 Tamawashi 3-9 (2)

M11

M12 Masunoyama 5-7 (1)

(x) 0-7-5 Tochinowaka M13

(1) 6-6 Chiyonokuni M14 Sagatsukasa 2-6-4 (x)

(1) 6-6 Daido M15 Sotairyu 4-8 (3)

(3) 5-7 Oiwato M16 Wakanosato 8-4 (o)

J1 Kotoyuki 5-7 (3)

(o) 10-2 Kyokushuho J2 Daikiho 8-4 (1)

(1) 8-4 Asahisho J3 Chiyootori 7-5 (2)

(3) 7-5 Homarefuji J4

J5 Tenkaiho 6-6 (x)

...

(2) 10-2 Azumaryu J8

...

J11 Asasekiryu 9-3 (x)

In lower juryo we have three classes of rikishi after today: Those now gone (Hochiyama and Sensho), those almost gone (Miyabiyama and Yoshiazuma, needing to win all three bouts), and those almost safe (five rikishi needing just one more victory). In addition, Tochihiryu saved himself altogether by beating Akiseyama - a pretty good debut for the guy who was stuck in high makushita for far too long. Satoyama is also assured another juryo appearance now, sending Yoshiazuma to the brink in the process.

As Doitsuyama already mentioned Chiyoarashi's return to juryo is no longer in any doubt now after his win over Sensho...well, maybe some tiny doubt as the two currently open slots could go to Kitaharima and Kamei, but seriously, who here expects Miyabiyama to finish 5-10 and save himself now? (And of course Homasho is there as a demotion possibility, too.)

(?) kyujo Homasho J1

...

J8 Takanoyama 4-8 (1)

(3) 2-10 Miyabiyama J9 Tokushinho 4-8 (1)

(o) 6-6 Satoyama J10 Yoshiazuma 3-9 (3)

(1) 5-7 Kimurayama J11

(1) 6-6 Akiseyama J12 Kagamio 6-6 (1)

J13 Tochihiryu 7-5 (o)

(x) 4-8 Hochiyama J14 Sensho 4-8 (x)

4-2 Kitaharima Ms1

Ms2

3-3 Kotokuni Ms3 Seiro 4-2

6-1 Chiyoarashi Ms4

3-3 Higonojo Ms5 Chiyoo 4-2

Ms6

6-0 Kamei Ms7

The losses by Miyabiyama, Yoshiazuma, Hochiyama and Sensho seem to have impressed into the shimpan committee that there's unlikely to be a shortage of demotable rikishi this time, so Kamei gets the (arguably lucky) direct 7-0 matchup against almost-bottom-of-the-division Takakiho. Barring a four-alarm henka Kamei really has no right losing that given the disparity in skill, but then again I also thought that about the Higoarashi-Takakiho match yesterday.

Seiro goes first in filling the at least 3 crossover slots for the final days, and it's a big bout all around as he's set against Yoshiazuma. I'm actually not sure what the plan is for Days 13 and 14, as it looks like Higonojo will not be put into a juryo bout (but rather against Ms6w Kotomisen), and either Kitaharima or Chiyoo will also be fighting in makushita. I guess they're going to have exchange bouts for Kotokuni and Chiyoo, possibly augmented with appearances by already-MK Arawashi and Chiyomaru.

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Miya's out for summer
Miya's out forever
Miya's been blown to pieces

No more shimpans
No more gyoijs
No more fan's dirty looks

(Being unsure...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 13:

Daido reached the finishing line today, while both debutants Sotairyu and Oiwato have had their tickets back to juryo punched. Chiyonokuni and Masunoyama also lost, but Tamawashi was victorious, leaving all three at one win from safety.

Not much more clarity in upper juryo yet where we continue to have the same six contenders (besides Kyokushuho). Kotoyuki keeps himself in the race with his 6th win in his last 7 bouts, and Azumaryu still challenges for both the yusho and a low-rank promotion. In direct matchups Chiyootori beat Daikiho and Homarefuji succeeded against Asahisho.

M10 Tamawashi 4-9 (1)

M11

M12 Masunoyama 5-8 (1)

(x) 0-7-6 Tochinowaka M13

(1) 6-7 Chiyonokuni M14 Sagatsukasa 2-6-5 (x)

(o) 7-6 Daido M15 Sotairyu 4-9 (x)

(x) 5-8 Oiwato M16

J1 Kotoyuki 6-7 (2)

(o) 11-2 Kyokushuho J2 Daikiho 8-5 (1)

(1) 8-5 Asahisho J3 Chiyootori 8-5 (1)

(2) 8-5 Homarefuji J4

...

(1) 11-2 Azumaryu J8

Tomorrow's torikumi grab bag has come up with crossover bouts for Homarefuji and Daikiho (the latter against demotion contestant Chiyonokuni) as well as another direct matchup of promotion candidates, this time Azumaryu against Kotoyuki. Chiyootori and Kyokushuho go against opponents that are hunting for KK, and Asahisho has to concern himself with Yoshiazuma who desperately needs to win to avoid going to makushita. All in all, a pretty nice schedule.

A trio of lower juryo rikishi reached secure ground today with Akiseyama, Tokushinho and Takanoyama (in a winner-is-safe match against Kagamio). Yoshiazuma fended off the challenge by makushitan Seiro but still needs to win out, while Kimurayama lost. And so did Miyabiyama as well, sealing his departure from the paid ranks now.

Other than Seiro's loss the only activity on the makushita side came courtesy of Kamei's expected yusho victory.

(?) kyujo Homasho J1

...

J8 Takanoyama 5-8 (o)

(x) 2-11 Miyabiyama J9 Tokushinho 5-8 (o)

J10 Yoshiazuma 4-9 (2)

(1) 5-8 Kimurayama J11

(o) 7-6 Akiseyama J12 Kagamio 6-7 (1)

J13

(x) 4-9 Hochiyama J14 Sensho 4-9 (x)

4-2 Kitaharima Ms1

Ms2

3-3 Kotokuni Ms3 Seiro 4-3

6-1 Chiyoarashi Ms4

3-3 Higonojo Ms5 Chiyoo 4-2

Ms6

7-0 Kamei Ms7

You know, it'll be interesting if the last juryo spot ends up having to be decided between Homasho and Seiro... For now Seiro has really put a damper on his promotion chances with today's loss as both Kotokuni and Chiyoo are in position to pass him.

In fact, Kotokuni goes up to juryo tomorrow, facing Kimurayama. Yoshiazuma has to deal with a makuuchi-chasing rikishi in Asahisho as mentioned, and Kagamio goes against KK-seeking Akiseyama. Kitaharima and Higonojo are active in the confines of makushita as expected.

Outlook for senshuraku: Chiyoo will very likely be placed against whoever's still in demotion danger (Yoshiazuma at the very least), but there's also the possibility of putting Yoshiazuma against Kagamio in case they're both one win from safety. Requires a Yoshiazuma win and a Kagamio loss on Day 14, of course.

(Go Kotokuni!)

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 14:

Chiyonokuni battled to safety against promotion contender Daikiho today, and Masunoyama also saved himself, leaving just Tamawashi in danger of demotion. However, from his position and with too few really strong promotees even a 4-11 might be seeing him stay in the end. We'll have to wait and see what the juryo guys do tomorrow.

What they did today were a possibly promotion-clinching win for Chiyootori and the long-delayed end of Kotoyuki's repromotion hopes. The latter was beaten by Azumaryu who has also done enough numerically now, but probably should add a 13th win tomorrow to really impress the banzuke committee and make sure of his promotion. Daikiho (in makuuchi) and Asahisho (against Yoshiazuma) lost and definitely need to win tomorrow. Homarefuji scored a victory today and is actually in the best position to grab the 4th open slot for now; as he can still fall behind the two 8-6'ers he's by no means sure of promotion though.

M10 Tamawashi 4-10 (1)

M11

M12 Masunoyama 6-8 (o)

(x) 0-7-7 Tochinowaka M13

(o) 7-7 Chiyonokuni M14 Sagatsukasa 2-6-6 (x)

M15 Sotairyu 4-10 (x)

(x) 5-9 Oiwato M16

J1 Kotoyuki 6-8 (x)

(o) 11-3 Kyokushuho J2 Daikiho 8-6 (1)

(1) 8-6 Asahisho J3 Chiyootori 9-5 (?)

(1) 9-5 Homarefuji J4

...

(?) 12-2 Azumaryu J8

Up for tomorrow: Masunoyama-Yoshikaze (8-6), Daikiho-Asasekiryu (10-4), Asahisho-Nionoumi (9-5), Chiyootori-Tochihiryu (8-6), Homarefuji-Oiwato (same university, hmm...), and the yusho decider between Azumaryu and Kyokushuho.

Down in juryo there's also just one endangered rikishi now after Kagamio and Kimurayama achieved their last needed win, the latter beating Kotokuni and removing him from the promotion race. :-( Yoshiazuma also won but still has to win on senshuraku as well. Unsurprisingly he's been set against Chiyoo for that bout, and as it stands this bout is likely a direct exchange possibility as Chiyoo should be ahead of Seiro if he wins. (Either way, it does look like the banzuke committee - and Shikoroyama-oyakata personally - will have to decide between Homasho and Seiro, either as the 4th or the 5th potential exchange.)

Higonojo also finished 3-4, losing to Kotomisen, apparently the latest product off the Sadogatake late-bloomer assembly line, while Kitaharima won and will probably put a bit of distance between himself and the bottom of juryo for May.

(?) kyujo Homasho J1

...

(x) 2-12 Miyabiyama J9

J10 Yoshiazuma 5-9 (1)

(o) 6-8 Kimurayama J11

J12 Kagamio 7-7 (o)

J13

(x) 4-10 Hochiyama J14 Sensho 4-10 (x)

5-2 Kitaharima Ms1

Ms2

(x) 3-4 Kotokuni Ms3 Seiro 4-3

6-1 Chiyoarashi Ms4

(x) 3-4 Higonojo Ms5 Chiyoo 4-2

Ms6

7-0 Kamei Ms7

Edited by Asashosakari
  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really hoping for Seiro to get the promotion to Juryo and very happy about my long time favourite Kotomisen :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice to see Myogiryu vs. Okinoumi on the final day. To me that looks basically like a fight over the second Komusubi slot. Myogiryu gets it if he wins, but Okinoumi could steal it with the 11th win.

I'm not particularly bothered about Seiro one way or the other, but if it does come down to a choice between him and Homasho then I'd prefer to see Seiro get the nod. I always like to see how rikishi cope on their first trip to the sekitori ranks, and I'm OK with it in this case as Homasho is easily good enough to charge straight back up when his shoulder is fully healed. (And actually, Seiro's been climbing through the top half of Makushita for a year now, so he's earned his chance)

Edited by Yubinhaad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was under the impression that when Kyokushuho was demoted going kyujo from J1w it was already considered a bit of a stretch (as I remember, previous cases before that one had the rikishi fall to somewhere around J12 - J13).

Is Homasho really in danger in that sense, given that he has another "half rank" so to speak over Kyokushuho's case and stands at the very top of the Juryo banzuke?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is Homasho really in danger in that sense, given that he has another "half rank" so to speak over Kyokushuho's case and stands at the very top of the Juryo banzuke?

Normally 0-0-15 is treated a bit more harshly than zero wins with actual dohyo appearances, which is why it's difficult to see him get away with less of a drop than Kyokushuho did. Unless they decide they really effed up there and go back to general leniency with very high-ranked juryo rikishi... I honestly don't have a clue how this is going to shake out. I'd love to know what's going through Shikoroyama's mind looking at the situation. Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is an interesting conundrum, that's for sure :-) ,

If it were up to Shikoroyama, I would assume it would depend on his estimate on Seiro's potential and his knowledge of Homasho's situation.

A healthy Homasho will be back to Makuuchi in the minimum amount of basho required, But either as J13 or as Ms1, he'll still need two basho to make it back up to the big boys. If, however, he is not all that healed by the next basho, maybe a stint at Makushita would be a less physically straining way for him to come back (7 matches and all).

If he thinks Seiro has a shot at retaining sekitori status once he has it, then Yubinhaad's reasoning should apply, that getting a new sekitori is always a good idea, after all, Homasho will be back pretty much for certain...

Of course, all the above bean counting fails to take into account intra-heya relationships, and personal favorites...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Due to lack of candidates for promotion to Juryo I think that Homasho is safe while Chiyoo will be the fourth promotion this time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have a feeling Chiyoo will be Ms1e and both Yoshiazuma and Homasho fill the J14 spots... Well, if I'm mistaken, then it'll sure be a very productive basho for Kokonoe-beya. Chiyotairyu (injury notwithstanding) earned a kinboshi and looked very capable as a joi-jin. Chiyonokuni is safe in makuuchi. Chiyootori gets the promotion there. Chiyoarashi back to juryo, Chiyoo debuting there. Not to forget Chiyomaru's 3-4 will have him still within juryo's range in May.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 15:

Daikiho, Chiyootori and Homarefuji made sure of their makuuchi debuts with wins today, while Asahisho lost to Nionoumi and is certain to remain in juryo. Azumaryu also lost (and ended up losing the yusho altogether in the end), and combined with the other contenders' victories his own promotion is now a bit questionable. There's a 5th slot by the numbers as Tamawashi lost as well, but it's a very borderline decision. My guess: Azumaryu gets another basho in juryo to prove himself.

M10 Tamawashi 4-11 (?)
M11
M12
(x) 0-7-8 Tochinowaka M13
M14 Sagatsukasa 2-6-7 (x)
M15 Sotairyu 4-10 (x)
(x) 5-10 Oiwato M16

J1
(o) 12-3 Kyokushuho J2 Daikiho 9-6 (o)
(x) 8-7 Asahisho J3 Chiyootori 10-5 (o)
(o) 10-5 Homarefuji J4
...
(?) 12-3 Azumaryu J8



The last questionable rikishi in lower juryo lost, too, but here he had to contend with a promotion candidate. I'm fairly sure Yoshiazuma is going to makushita with that; the main possible deviation I can see from the straight-forward approach would be to have both Homasho and Seiro in juryo, and keep Chiyoo in makushita.

Then again, they've got prior form in producing head-scratchers: Occasionally cases like Seiro vs Chiyoo (who are essentially in the same position for the promotion queue) end up with neither getting promoted, and some juryo rikishi getting lucky instead. Of course, this time it would mean two lucky juryo (both Homasho and Yoshiazuma), which I think makes that outcome less likely. My guess: five promotions.

(?) kyujo Homasho J1
...
(x) 3-12 Miyabiyama J9
J10 Yoshiazuma 5-10 (x)
J11
J12
J13
(x) 5-10 Hochiyama J14 Sensho 4-11 (x)

5-2 Kitaharima Ms1
Ms2
Ms3 Seiro 4-3
6-1 Chiyoarashi Ms4
Ms5 Chiyoo 5-2
Ms6
7-0 Kamei Ms7


Hochiyama is just one sekitori basho away from qualifying for kabu possession, and I'm sure he'll do his damnedest to get back to juryo for at least that one tournament. He might have done the first step today by beating Sensho in the juryo-jiri matchup, as he ought to be staying in the immediate promotion zone now.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 15:

Daikiho and Homarefuji made sure of their makuuchi debuts with wins today.

Did we just get two new tsuyuharai for the Yokozuna?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah, it would still be Aminishiki/Takarafuji, I guess.

But will Daikiho be the first tsuyuharai without an oicho-mage?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah, it would still be Aminishiki/Takarafuji, I guess.

But will Daikiho be the first tsuyuharai without an oicho-mage?

Hmmm... I was under the impression that Homarefuji was a bit of a protegee for Harumafuji, but I guess I am mistaken in that :-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 15:

Hochiyama is just one sekitori basho away from qualifying for kabu possession.

Unless he can ask Kasugayama-oyakata for some tips ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A makushita-joi guess:

Homasho (J1e 0-0-15) Ms1 Yoshiazuma (J10w 5-10)

Kotomisen (Ms6w 4-3) Ms2 Sakigake (Ms13w 6-1)

Endo (Ms10Td 5-2) Ms3 Hochiyama (J14e 5-10)

Arawashi (Ms2e 3-4) Ms4 Chiyomaru (Ms2w 3-4)

Shoho (Ms9e 4-3) Ms5 Kotokuni (Ms3e 3-4)

Sensho (J14w 4-11) Ms6 Sakaguchi (Ms10w 4-3)

Osunaarashi (Ms23e 6-1) Ms7 Hamaguchi (Ms12e 4-3)

Higonojo (Ms5e 3-4) Ms8 Higoarashi (Ms17e 5-2)

Kasugakuni (Ms14w 4-3) Ms9 Fukugoriki (Ms15e 4-3)

Dewahayate (Ms20e 5-2) Ms10 Wakamisho (Ms20w 5-2)

Fujimoto (Ms7w 3-4) Ms11 Sadanoumi (Ms4w 2-3-2)

Saishin (Ms16w 4-3) Ms12 Ryuonami (Ms32w 6-1)

Yamatofuji (Ms22w 5-2) Ms13 Kawanari (Ms1w 1-6)

Nishikigi (Ms6e 2-5) Ms14 Takatoshi (Ms19w 4-3)

Hokaho (Ms11w 3-4) Ms15 Kairyu (Ms8e 2-5)

Probably too lenient on the makekoshi, but there's a real shortage of KK rikishi here. This reverses itself to the bottom of the division...24 scheduled promotions from sandanme, near the all-time high. Unless there are some retirements by makushita rikishi, there will be some very harsh demotions this time. (Currently, the "last" demotion should be either Ms34e Sasakiyama 2-5 or Ms42w Amatsu 3-4. No rikishi has dropped to sandanme from that high in the Heisei era.)

And I wonder again if we're finally going to see sandanme reduced in size. Right now there's no possible way to have more than 101.5 ranks in jonidan for May, and that would require zero retirements (other than Miyabiyama's) of rikishi who are in line to be ranked above jonokuchi.

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since this about promotions, what are the chances that Tochiozan will be promoted to Sekiwake after consecutive KK's at K1e?

Edited by ronnie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since this about promotions, what are the chances that Tochiozan will be promoted to Sekiwake after consecutive KK's at K1e?

He better be, or my entire GTB entry, as usual, will be in the toilet.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since this about promotions, what are the chances that Tochiozan will be promoted to Sekiwake after consecutive KK's at K1e?

It's the first komusubi record better than 8-7 since the current banzuke committee took charge, so why knows. ;-) History says that 10-5 isn't enough to force a promotion, though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since this about promotions, what are the chances that Tochiozan will be promoted to Sekiwake after consecutive KK's at K1e?

It's the first komusubi record better than 8-7 since the current banzuke committee took charge, so why knows. ;-) History says that 10-5 isn't enough to force a promotion, though.

He did defeat all the Ozeki though, and he has an equal or better record to any of the upper rankers other than Hakuho. It was quite a respectable performance, overall.

And yet, what I think matters most is that I don't think there's a "feeling" that he is being held back at the moment, which I think is what usually puts in motion a forced promotion... After all, he's been Sekiwake before, more than once.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a pitty though, I for one believe that 10-5 at K is quite a good result and should be promoted to S. If 10-5 is enough to start an ozeki run from S, why not promote a K with it...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this