How long will Hakuho be the sole yokozuna?

[Jejima 1,415]

And I'm guessing Jejima hasn't been by to vote yet, considering Harumafuji remains entirely vote-less. (Nodding yes...) Short honeymoon indeed as Fay noted.

I voted for Osh.

No, I am not changing my opinion, as my previously outlined scenario involved Harry going into a tsunatori basho (I.e. having already won a yusho - and yes, I still believe he can win a yusho at some stage in the future) and going into the last few days of the second basho still in contention for promotion, at which stage I thought it would be highly likely that the two Yokozunas that he would face on days 13 and 14 from his native Mongolia (and friends), would not be as motivated as he to win those bouts, thereby giving him the 'numbers'. The above discussion is now (sadly) moot, as one of the key variables has changed - so we will never know... (Laughing...)

[but if Harry is in a similar position, andf facing Hakuho on senshuraku of a tsunatori basho, and needs just one more win.... I'd bet on him, *even* if Hakho were still in the yusho race... ;-)]

[Treblemaker 254]

And I'm guessing Jejima hasn't been by to vote yet, considering Harumafuji remains entirely vote-less. (Nodding yes...) Short honeymoon indeed as Fay noted.

[but if Harry is in a similar position, andf facing Hakuho on senshuraku of a tsunatori basho, and needs just one more win.... I'd bet on him, *even* if Hakho were still in the yusho race... (Laughing...)]

I'm not so sure Hak would willingly let anyone get something without paying dearly for it. HF would have to earn that on his own.

Add to the fantasy the element of whether Baruto is involved in a yusho race, and for sure all bets are off. Judging from Hak's comment last basho, I don't think anyone wants to face him in a playoff.

There can be only one variable in this: Hak's health. If he's down with an injury that affects his performance in any way, then it's a different story. As long as he's 100%, and he's proven to be insanely durable, there's a major roadblock on anybody's Road to the Rope.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

[but if Harry is in a similar position, andf facing Hakuho on senshuraku of a tsunatori basho, and needs just one more win.... I'd bet on him, *even* if Hakho were still in the yusho race... (Nodding yes...)]

I'm not so sure Hak would willingly let anyone get something without paying dearly for it. HF would have to earn that on his own.

I'm inclined to say exactly the opposite: I'd bet on any ozeki who actually gets into a tsunatori basho and then finds himself in a yusho decider against Hakuho on Day 15.

[Kintamayama 45,530]

I'm inclined to say exactly the opposite: I'd bet on any ozeki who actually gets into a tsunatori basho and then finds himself in a yusho decider against Hakuho on Day 15.

And that is why I say whoever gets to a point where his tsunatori hinges on his winning his last match against Hakuhou will be promoted regardless.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

I'm inclined to say exactly the opposite: I'd bet on any ozeki who actually gets into a tsunatori basho and then finds himself in a yusho decider against Hakuho on Day 15.

And that is why I say whoever gets to a point where his tsunatori hinges on his winning his last match against Hakuhou will be promoted regardless.

Nah...the Kyokai have boxed themselves in with their "two yusho or bust" approach of the last 20 years and short of a real crisis situation (no active yokozuna left) I doubt it's going to be overturned anytime soon. Functionally we're not really saying anything different, of course, but I do think it's much more likely that the tsunatori'ing ozeki gets that last win and leaves the Kyokai with no choice than that he doesn't and the Kyokai decides to promote him anyway.

It doesn't matter anyway; Hakuho's a student of the game, he knows not to put personal accolades over the overall health of Ozumo. That said, first somebody's gonna have to do the other 97% on his own (yusho, then staying in the next yusho race to senshuraku), and that's the much bigger sticking point.

[Kintamayama 45,530]

Nah...the Kyokai have boxed themselves in with their "two yusho or bust" approach of the last 20 years and short of a real crisis situation (no active yokozuna left) I doubt it's going to be overturned anytime soon.

On the contrary, they have done anything but boxed themselves in in recent years. In recent cases involving U and Tochiazuma, figurehead Oyakata were quoted using the "E" word" very prominently. Granted, this was the usual "garbage talk" they use whenever it's convenient (and I don't subscribe to the notion that this talk is reserved for favored Japanese rikishi only), yet it was never put to the test, as all involved imploded royally. I am convinced that two very strong shows by any Ozeki- one yusho and one final-day jun -yusho or playoff loss would result 100% in a promotion, "quality of Sumo" being of course an important piece in the puzzle.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 19,667]

I am convinced that two very strong shows by any Ozeki- one yusho and one final-day jun -yusho or playoff loss would result 100% in a promotion, "quality of Sumo" being of course an important piece in the puzzle.

I'm mostly saying that it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy of sorts by now - we're not going to see the scenario you've outlined for the exact reason that nobody wants to have to rely on the possibility that the Kyokai will decide to act that way - there's just too much at stake. Just like nobody seems to dare putting together an ozeki run with only 33 wins anymore... Doesn't matter that they might still promote a 33-win guy, they've made too many claims that it takes more now for anybody to rely on the 33-win guideline any longer.

If it comes down to a tsunatori senshuraku Hakuho 13-1 vs. some ozeki 13-1, the ozeki will win, unless the Kyokai is doing something unprecedented like declaring the tsuna run successful even before senshuraku has taken place. And he'll win twice if it's Hakuho 13-1 vs. ozeki 12-2.

Caveat: The above scenario is only valid to about 2013. Once the current leader generation and their fondness for passing the buck and avoiding tough decisions is fully gone, perhaps we'll see some common sense enter the picture again when it comes to major promotions. IMHO the current guys are perceived as simply too chickenshit to ever make an affirmative promotion decision that could possibly be second-guessed. No active rikishi will risk having a tsunatori fail on a final day loss, neither the ozekis nor Hakuho.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 45,530]

No active rikishi will risk having a tsunatori fail on a final day loss, neither the ozekis nor Hakuho.

So you are saying that if and when it will come to it, Hakuhou will throw a tsuna-deciding decisive bout regardless of who his opponent is just so that his opponent will become Yokozuna, and give up on his own yusho just for that ? Am I misunderstanding you?

[Asashosakari 19,667]

No active rikishi will risk having a tsunatori fail on a final day loss, neither the ozekis nor Hakuho.

So you are saying that if and when it will come to it, Hakuhou will throw a tsuna-deciding decisive bout regardless of who his opponent is just so that his opponent will become Yokozuna, and give up on his own yusho just for that ? Am I misunderstanding you?

Depends on your definition of "throw". But no, I wouldn't expect full effort. Is this really a controversial notion? Everybody's always saying how tough it is to be a yokozuna, especially to be the only one - you don't think that's going to be in the back of Hakuho's mind if the opportunity presents itself to have a second one? At that point, the ozeki in question will have had 14 bouts to demonstrate he doesn't want the promotion or that he just plain isn't good enough - once he's taken those 14 hurdles I strongly doubt Hakuho would go into that final bout with the determination to be the showstopper at the last minute. (Again, if they could rely on the scenario you've outlined, this wouldn't apply - but they just can't, not with the guys currently in charge and the trend towards ever more rigid promotion requirements since Futahaguro.)

Ozumo relies on a steady stream of "big names" for its survival as a commercial entity, and it's so tough to reach the two highest levels on the banzuke. I'd be completely stunned if there haven't been several cases over the years of rikishi being given a nudge or two because their peers judged them deserving of the next step (whether to ozeki or to yokozuna), but alas, unfortunately I'm not omniscient to verify this one way or the other. But, it's a common trope that yokozuna (and high-ranking rikishi in general) are tasked with helping bring up the next generation - I think it's a bit naive to assume that only refers to doing keiko with their stable's makushita rikishi. Besides, what's one yusho among 10+ or 20+? Ozumo's a close-knit society, and most top rikishi aren't nearly lone-wolf-ish enough to just ignore the past and the future.

And I haven't even touched upon the issue that today's top stars are tomorrow's Kyokai shareholders, and all that entails for their interest in keeping Ozumo healthy and prosperous...

BTW, rikishi not trusting the guys in charge to make the right decision is not exactly an idea I've only cooked up today:

With the feeling that a fellow Tokyo-born rikishi should not be denied his rightful place, prior to the end of the September 1954 basho, yokozuna Azumafuji announced his retirement. Tochinishiki is said to have sent a messenger to Azumafuji to ask him not to retire because of him, but Azumafuji’s mind was made up. Although pictures of the five yokozuna together exist from this era, in Ozumo there is still no single basho with five yokozuna on the banzuke.

Edited April 9, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 45,530]

Depends on your definition of "throw". But no, I wouldn't expect full effort. Is this really a controversial notion? Everybody's always saying how tough it is to be a yokozuna, especially to be the only one - you don't think that's going to be in the back of Hakuho's mind if the opportunity presents itself to have a second one? At that point, the ozeki in question will have had 14 bouts to demonstrate he doesn't want the promotion or that he just plain isn't good enough - once he's taken those 14 hurdles I strongly doubt Hakuho would go into that final bout with the determination to be the showstopper at the last minute. (Again, if they could rely on the scenario you've outlined, this wouldn't apply - but they just can't, not with the guys currently in charge and the trend towards ever more rigid promotion requirements since Futahaguro.)

I disagree-I feel that they are getting more lenient, at least on paper and in "wink - wink".

BTW, rikishi not trusting the guys in charge to make the right decision is not exactly an idea I've only cooked up today:

With the feeling that a fellow Tokyo-born rikishi should not be denied his rightful place, prior to the end of the September 1954 basho, yokozuna Azumafuji announced his retirement. Tochinishiki is said to have sent a messenger to Azumafuji to ask him not to retire because of him, but Azumafuji

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Not a good example-that's totally different-that's exactly the opposite ...

How so? In both scenarios it's an incumbent taking matters into his own hands because he feels that the powers-that-be will not promote a deserving guy simply based on the numbers game - strict adherence to "no more than 4 yokozuna" there, "nothing less than 2 straight yusho" in what I'm suggesting. The only difference is that Azumafuji was forced to take more drastic measures. You may feel that one of them is a dishonourable thing to do, I disagree.

And "bah" on your street thug quip. Meritocracy only goes so far when we're talking about potential once-in-a-lifetime opportunities...this isn't a matter of somebody losing on purpose so his opponent can get a promotion to komusubi or something. Am I really the only one outside of Sumotalk who wouldn't be shocked if he was to find out that, say, Masuiyama/Kirishima/Kaio/Kotomitsuki/etc. received a tiny bit of assistance in getting to ozeki, or perhaps the latest Wakanohana did in getting to yokozuna (not necessarily in a senshuraku scenario)? If you're ready to accept (and I'm pretty sure you are) that opponents occasionally fall on their swords for e.g. Kaio because he's perceived as "still ozeki material" and they don't want to cause his demotion and intai, why is it such a huge leap to believe that somebody who is perceived as "should be an ozeki" but has thus far fallen just a bit short may also receive a little boost by sympathetic opponents?

If it makes it more palatable, you can think of it in the usual "guy with something big on the line was really motivated vs. guy with much less on the line was much less motivated" terms...it's just a fact that sometimes somebody will go into a bout not caring much whether he wins or loses, and the line between it being a conscious or a subconscious decision is likely quite blurry in many cases. I'm just acknowledging that for a wider range of scenarios than the beaten-to-death "7-7 on senshuraku" thing, nothing more.

Perhaps the ozeki in my scenario should simply henka the crap out of Hakuho for his senshuraku victory, then it's all "fair and square". (Nodding yes...)

Edited April 10, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Treblemaker 254]

I think all of the arguments presented here are valid and acceptable except for one thing: The scenario of the present day landscape is unlike anything within the last 6-10 years. It's a unique arrangement with a unique Yokozuna on top.

When Asashoryu was the sole Yokozuna, one never expected him to roll over and allow Hakuho to be promoted. At present, don't think for a minute that Hak isn't enjoying his solo moment in the sun, for all his politically correct statements about how hard it is being the sole Boss. Yes, he is a student of the game, but he's also got a lot of cred riding on his every move. I'm pretty sure that he understands that his every bout is scrutinized to the hilt. He seems to be taking the role of the Top Dog seriously, and I doubt that he's willing to share that experience with anyone, regardless of whether it's a good thing for Sumo or not. In his mind, I really believe that he's thinking whether it's a good thing for Hakuho or not.

Very few Yokozuna get the chance to sit on top of the pile by themselves. Sharing the role with no one. Accepting no peers. He might have been genuinely upset at Asashoryu's departure, but that's one thing. He's not going to (inwardly, at least) welcome another Yok to the post. He has enough competition keeping the Ozeki at bay. And that, by definition, may actually be his job description.

It's one thing to be a member of the OBSC, and yes, promotions to Ozeki have been "helped" along to some degree by the various members within the group. It's also quite possible that Hak may have had a hand in HF's promotion, if one allows their mind to stretch that far. It's quite another to expect that the final step up the ladder to be just as simple, or as aided.

As in the article, stepping aside/retiring/whatever to make room for another Ozeki or Yokozuna is one of an honourable and personable choice. At least it's done out there on the table. To expect that even in the heat of a yusho race and with promotion on the line, any Yok would willingly and voluntarily "step out" to allow an Ozeki to be promoted is, let's just say, highly unlikely, as much as I'm firmly convinced that there is a fair amount of waltzing going on between agreeing partners.

Now that anybody who's going to be an Ozeki already is one, and let's pretend that Baruto or HF manages to yusho at some point later this year. The next basho, if they're 14-0 going into the last bout, even with promotion on the line, the chances of Hak voluntarily granting that "last out" (as in baseball) are slim and none. For one thing, people will be watching for it. Especially the Kyokai. And with dozens of cameras all around, the last thing anyone wants is proof that someone "lost", rather than someone "won". That would do incredible damage to the rep of sumo more than anything.

[Kintamayama 45,530]

If it makes it more palatable, you can think of it in the usual "guy with something big on the line was really motivated vs. guy with much less on the line was much less motivated" terms...it's just a fact that sometimes somebody will go into a bout not caring much whether he wins or loses, and the line between it being a conscious or a subconscious decision is likely quite blurry in many cases. I'm just acknowledging that for a wider range of scenarios than the beaten-to-death "7-7 on senshuraku" thing, nothing more.

Perhaps the ozeki in my scenario should simply henka the crap out of Hakuho for his senshuraku victory, then it's all "fair and square". :-)

I think Treblemaker wrote exactly what I was going to, so please regard his post as my view too, exactly , word for word. The bottom line is that I agree with your general assessments 100%, except that I don't think they hold when it comes to a Yokozuna promotion, in any scenario. I am not naive concerning the various goings-on, but I (and they, I'm convinced) draw the line at a Yokozuna promotion.

Edited April 10, 2010 by Kintamayama

[Jejima 1,415]

The next basho, if they're 14-0 going into the last bout, even with promotion on the line, the chances of Hak voluntarily granting that "last out" (as in baseball) are slim and none. For one thing, people will be watching for it. Especially the Kyokai. And with dozens of cameras all around, the last thing anyone wants is proof that someone "lost", rather than someone "won". That would do incredible damage to the rep of sumo more than anything.

I'd imagine that in the case above, a 14-1 record (behind Hak with a 15-0 record or 14-1 yusho play-off victory I guess - what an exciting senshuraku, that would be!) might still be enough for Yokozuna promotion - on the back of a 13-2 or better Yusho (maybe 12-3Y even?) from the previous basho, whilst there is currently just a single Yokozuna.

A more interesting case would be if Yokozuna contender and Hakuho were both going into the final day with (say) 12-2 or 13-1 records, with no one else in the race. I'd favour Harumafuji in that situation (although I am starting to feel that maybe I am wearing polarised glasses), but not Baruto or Osh or et al.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Fair enough.

Now that anybody who's going to be an Ozeki already is one, and let's pretend that Baruto or HF manages to yusho at some point later this year. The next basho, if they're 14-0 going into the last bout, even with promotion on the line, the chances of Hak voluntarily granting that "last out" (as in baseball) are slim and none. For one thing, people will be watching for it. Especially the Kyokai. And with dozens of cameras all around, the last thing anyone wants is proof that someone "lost", rather than someone "won". That would do incredible damage to the rep of sumo more than anything.

Still, do make sure you're also looking for it on Day 14. I don't have to struggle too hard to imagine a scenario where, say, the ozeki is 13-0 and Hakuho is 12-1 after 13 days, and one day later it just so happens to be 14-0 and 12-2, making the legitimacy of their subsequent senshuraku bout a moot issue. Or where they're tied after 13 days and the ozeki is one ahead after 14 (and then the presumptive favourite for senshuraku anyway), and so on.

But in the end this is probably all academic - I highly doubt any yokozuna promotion while Hakuho remains active will be coming down to the last couple of bouts anyway. It's much more likely that Hakuho will be out injured altogether or having a late-basho injury meltdown like Asashoryu did in Hak's tsunatori.

(Heh, I hijacked my own thread. Weird feeling.)

Edited April 10, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Okay, one more:

I've been checking the latest previous promotions to Yokozuna and can't find one single instance where this was even remotely possible to have happened (all after-Futahaguro Yokozunas).

Natsu 1999, Musashimaru tsunatori, senshuraku bout Musashimaru 12-2 vs. Akebono 11-3. Sekiwake Kaio had improved to 12-3 by the time the musubi-no-ichiban took place. No aspersions intended, just disproving the "can't possibly have happened anywhere" part.

Here's the bout, BTW.

Edited April 10, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 45,530]

Okay, one more:

I've been checking the latest previous promotions to Yokozuna and can't find one single instance where this was even remotely possible to have happened (all after-Futahaguro Yokozunas).

Natsu 1999, Musashimaru tsunatori, senshuraku bout Musashimaru 12-2 vs. Akebono 11-3. Sekiwake Kaio had improved to 12-3 by the time the musubi-no-ichiban took place. No aspersions intended, just disproving the "can't possibly have happened anywhere" part.

Here's the bout, BTW.

It's not anywhere near the "14-0 Yokozuna lets the 13-1 contender win and then loses to him in the playoffs as well" scenario you were painting. This was an 11-3 Yokozuna who wasn't having such a great basho to begin with-totally plausible loss. I can see the conspiracy theory here, but I don't buy it in this case. Again, we both will never know.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

It's not anywhere near the "14-0 Yokozuna lets the 13-1 contender win and then loses to him in the playoffs as well" scenario you were painting.

It was just one scenario among several. The common denominator is merely this: I don't believe we'll see anybody miss out on a yokozuna promotion at the very last moment, and not (as you're saying) because the Kyokai would do what's right and promote even a non-yusho candidate anyway. Maybe I should work through all post-Futahaguro tsunatori and see how they developed...

FWIW, they didn't promote Takanohana in Nagoya 1993. After Day 11: Akebono 11-0, Wakanohana 10-1, Takanohana only 9-2. After Day 14: Akebono 13-1, Taka & Waka 12-2. Takanohana beat Akebono on senshuraku to create a three-way playoff, in which Akebono beat both brothers (Waka first, then Taka). No promotion for Taka after 14-1Y, 13-2D...granted, it was just his third ozeki tournament, and 17 years have passed, but: That's pretty much the "acceptable minimum" scenario you've outlined for a successful Baruto run. Promotion still this year, second yusho not necessarily required, just an "equivalent" showing. A Hakuho-Baruto playoff in a tsunatori basho would be intriguing, that's for sure. We could both be proven wrong at the same time with a Baruto loss followed by non-promotion...

This was an 11-3 Yokozuna who wasn't having such a great basho to begin with-totally plausible loss.

And the tsunatori guy was only 6-2 before he rattled off 7 straight wins to secure the promotion - that's a game we can play all day long. :-) It's not Hakuho or Takanohana going 15-0 in a tsunatori basho where nobody else exceeded 12 wins.

[Treblemaker 254]

I just realized... The title of this thread is actually a trick question:

Q: How long will Hakuho be the sole yokozuna?

A: Until the next one comes along.

Subsequently, all discussions are moot. Null and void.

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

I just realized... The title of this thread is actually a trick question:

Q: How long will Hakuho be the sole yokozuna?

A: Until the next one comes along.

Subsequently, all discussions are moot. Null and void.

It's more tricky than you thought. I can offer more possible answers:

B: Until Hakuho retires

C: Until Hakuho gets thrown out of Ozumo

D: Until Hakuho dies...

E: Until Hakuho changes his shikona

B to E must happen before another yokozuna promotion of course...

[Treblemaker 254]

I just realized... The title of this thread is actually a trick question:

Q: How long will Hakuho be the sole yokozuna?

A: Until the next one comes along.

Subsequently, all discussions are moot. Null and void.

It's more tricky than you thought. I can offer more possible answers:

B: Until Hakuho retires

C: Until Hakuho gets thrown out of Ozumo

D: Until Hakuho dies...

E: Until Hakuho changes his shikona

B to E must happen before another yokozuna promotion of course...

Well, according to the very old rule I just made up, your comments have been officially nulled and voided because they have been mooted.

(Then again, my own comments have also been nulled, voided, ..... Darn..)

[Asashosakari 19,667]

The first stage has passed...Hakuho has gone through all of 2010 as the sole yokozuna, and arguably in even more dominant fashion than anyone could have expected back in April.

Meanwhile, the one person betting on Kotomitsuki (sorry!) has had to find a different horse to back, and while Baruto hasn't looked quite as strong after his promotion as most of us thought he would, I suspect he'd still win this poll in a landslide by sheer lack of other credible contenders. (However, for a prediction way out of leftfield, check out Koukai's stab at Takayasu in post #24...that one's looking surprisingly un-crazy now, four tournaments later.)

In case we're getting a bunch of late votes now, here's the current voting totals preserved:

[Washuyama 641]

Bump.

[Asashosakari 19,667]

Ah, the heady days of the first Baruto hype...

quite remarkable that the Harumafujihype seems to be totally gone

And the post-Harumafuji hype. On the upside, that means it's probably too early to write off Baruto now, too.

Side note on the original poll options: If it wasn't for the cancelled Haru 2011 basho, Hakuho's stint as sole yokozuna (quasi-16 basho) would slot in right between Akebono (11) and Asashoryu (21).

Edited September 25, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 45,530]

Some excellent discussions there, and some stuff that eerily came totally true, including the right names and the fact we'll never really know..