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Asashosakari

Longest ongoing kachikoshi streaks: Lost In New York

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Welcome to another (and unexpectedly Asashoryu-free) edition of the game where we track those rikishi with a recent string of uninterrupted success. For Haru 2010 we have 18 rikishi with a KK streak of at least 5 basho on offer for you to predict their upcoming results:

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Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Kaio KK

Sokokurai KK

Aoki KK

Takarafuji KK

Takayasu MK

Azumaryu KK

Naoe MK

Takatoshi MK

Takageppo MK

Amatsu KK

Daido KK

Kairyu MK

Sakaguchi KK

Honda MK

Akinoyama KK

TB: 17

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The infallible selections are:

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio MK

Sokokurai KK

6. Aoki KK

Takarafuji MK

Takayasu MK

Azumaryu KK

Naoe KK

Takatoshi MK

Takageppo MK

Amatsu MK

14. Daido MK

Kairyu KK

Sakaguchi KK

Honda MK

Akinoyama KK

and we will end up with 16 candidates for May.

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Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Kaio KK

Sokokurai KK

Aoki KK

Takarafuji KK

Takayasu MK

Azumaryu KK

Naoe KK

Takatoshi KK

Takageppo KK

Amatsu KK

Daido MK

Kairyu MK

Sakaguchi KK

Honda MK

Akinoyama MK

TB: 20

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I don't play this game but . . .

go go Takarafuji go!!!

4 Isegahama sekitori for July!!!

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Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Kaio KK

Sokokurai KK

Aoki KK

Takarafuji KK

Takayasu MK

Azumaryu KK

Naoe KK

Takatoshi KK

Takageppo KK

Amatsu MK

Daido MK

Kairyu MK

Sakaguchi KK

Honda MK

Akinoyama MK

TB: 19

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Hakuho KK

Harumafuji KK

Kotooshu KK

Kaio MK (Got to happen eventually, right?)

Sokokurai MK

Aoki KK

Takarafuji MK

Takayasu MK

Azumaryu KK

Naoe KK

Takatoshi MK

Takageppo KK

Amatsu MK

Daido MK

Kairyu MK

Sakaguchi KK

Honda KK

Akinoyama KK

Tiebreak:16

Ryafuji

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Hmm, pretty sparse participation this time...if anyone still wants to play, feel free; with all rikishi on the ballot in sandanme and above, the 8am JST deadline doesn't need to be quite so fixed. (Sign of approval...) My entry:

+ Hakuho

+ Harumafuji

+ Kotooshu

+ Kaio

+ Sokokurai

+ Aoki

+ Takarafuji

- Takayasu

+ Azumaryu

- Naoe

- Takatoshi

+ Takageppo

+ Amatsu

- Daido

- Kairyu

+ Sakaguchi

+ Honda

- Akinoyama

TB 17

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KK Hakuho

KK Harumafuji

KK Kotooshu

KK Kaio

MK Sokokurai

KK Aoki

KK Takarafuji

MK Takayasu

KK Azumaryu

KK Naoe

MK Takatoshi

MK Takageppo

MK Amatsu

KK Daido

MK Kairyu

KK Sakaguchi

KK Honda

KK Akinoyama

TB: 18

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A little late (read, I forgot), but none of these guys have fought yet today, so hopefully this entry is okay (Sign of approval...)

1. Hakuho KK

2. Harumafuji KK

3. Kotooshu KK

4. Kaio MK (he's due!)

Sokokurai KK

6. Aoki KK

Takarafuji KK

Takayasu MK

Azumaryu KK

Naoe KK

Takatoshi MK

Takageppo MK

Amatsu KK

14. Daido MK

Kairyu MK

Sakaguchi KK

Honda MK

Akinoyama MK

TB = 16

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I'm happy we did reach double-digit players again in the end - here's how you all picked:

Player

Haku

Haru

Osh

Kaio

Soko

Aoki

T'fuj

T'yas

Azu

Naoe

T'tosh

T'gep

Amat

Dai

Kai

Saka

Hon

Aki

TB

Profomisakari

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

16

Holleshoryu

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

20

Mmikasazuma

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

+

-

-

19

Asashosakari

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

17

satsuhikari

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

17

Vikanohara

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

18

Gusoyama

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

16

Jejima

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

-

-

16

Asojima

+

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

16

ryafuji

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

+

16

[/td]

10:0

10:0

10:0

7:3

7:3

10:0

8:2

1:9

10:0

7:3

3:7

6:4

5:5

3:7

2:8

10:0

5:5

5:5

The usual unanimous selections for the top trio, while Kaio received a smattering of down votes as always. I agree with the two Brits, he's due for a MK - and one of these days you'll be correct. (Holiday feeling...) Three more rikishi ran the table in the lower divisions - Aoki doesn't come as much of a surprise (although I'm shocked how massively popular he is over in the MsGame...), while the lack of detractors for Azumaryu and especially Sakaguchi is somewhat unexpected for me. I suppose Takayasu also counts as a unanimous selection since only Profomisakari's robo-vote went against the prevailing opinion. That could end up as incredibly smart or...not. (In jonokuchi...)

First results around the middle weekend as usual.

Edited by Asashosakari

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I agree with the two Brits, he's due for a MK - and one of these days you'll be correct. (In jonokuchi...)

I've correctly predicted Kaio's KK/MK status since this game began! This is the first time I've put him down for an MK.

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I agree with the two Brits, he's due for a MK - and one of these days you'll be correct. (In jonokuchi...)

I've correctly predicted Kaio's KK/MK status since this game began! This is the first time I've put him down for an MK.

Okay, replace "you'll" with "the people who happen to have made this determination for the current basho". (Holiday feeling...)

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I suppose that question will have to remain unresolved, so let's get on with the game. (Nodding yes...)

Day 9:

First, a quick catchup of the handful of nakabi results - down in makushita, prospect Kairyu isn't having such a good basho following his 20th birthday earlier this month, starting off right with four losses. That was generally expected, only the esteemed pair of Game 21 admins were optimistic about his chances. Somewhat less prospecty backupper Sasaki followed suit a few bouts later when he was utchari'ed to an 0-4 of his own by Ryuden. Later in the day, Hakuho provided a point for everyone with his 8-0 start, while Baruto secured his return to the ballot. (His first and thus far only appearance in the game came in the very first edition last July, when he went 4-11. Seems like ages ago...)

And now for today's results - another point for everyone courtesy of Harumafuji's KK, and collegiate prospect Takarafuji improved to 4-1 against recent juryo Daishoumi. That development was also widely predicted, only ryafuji and (again) Asojima missed out. Another early makekoshi was ticketed by Kyokushuho, so no 5th straight KK for him after missing part of Natsu 2009 with injury.

The first standings:

Day 9:

4/18 Decisions, TB 4-25

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Gusoyama

4

16

1

Jejima

4

16

3

Asashosakari

4

17

3

satsuhikari

4

17

5

Vikanohara

4

18

6

Mmikasazuma

4

19

7

Holleshoryu

4

20

8

Profomisakari

3

16

8

ryafuji

3

16

10

Asojima

2

16

Up for Day 10: Kotooshu, Takayasu (no KK picks except Profomisakari!), Sakaguchi and Takageppo go for kachikoshi, while hefty youngster Akinoyama tries to avoid falling to MK. In the backup squad Aisaka and Kishi are also standing at the edge at 1-3.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 10:

Most candidates mentioned above managed to avoid making a decision today, either by losing with KK on the line or winning to stave off the makekoshi. The one bit of positive news was turned in by Naruto-beya's Takayasu who seems determined to give Ryuden and Takanoiwa a run for the title of first Heisei-era sekitori, collecting his sixth straight kachikoshi. Well done! Nobody except Robo-Profo foresaw this outcome. In backup action collegiate rookie Aisaka has faltered in his makushita debut, picking up four straight losses after his 25-4 career start to finish MK this basho. It's getting rather empty on the graduate list - Baruto is of course already KK, but the two other sekitori are just 4-6 and 5-5, and none of the seven toriteki is better than 2-3. All those tie-breaker guesses of 16 and up are looking a bit optimistic right now...

The updated standings:

Day 10:

5/18 Decisions, TB 5-24

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Gusoyama

4

16

1

Jejima

4

16

1

Profomisakari

4

16

4

Asashosakari

4

17

4

satsuhikari

4

17

6

Vikanohara

4

18

7

Mmikasazuma

4

19

8

Holleshoryu

4

20

9

ryafuji

3

16

10

Asojima

2

16

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Day 11:

The number of decisions doubled today as no less than 5 ballot rikishi decided their fates. Ozeki Kotooshu was the only sekitori among them and was picked for KK by everybody, so one point all around. Another unanimous prediction was collegiate deshi Sakaguchi's KK and he too didn't disappoint. Half a rank higher, however, fellow college entrant Naoe saw his KK streak broken at the hands of semi-prospect Hishofuji, which only 3 players expected. (BTW, what a weight gain since his debut 5 years ago!) Also taking a step back for now is strong middle school deshi Honda, but considering he's had a career start almost like Kisenosato it's hard to complain. Well, unless you were on the wrong side of the 5/5 prediction split on Honda, perhaps. Lastly, the more trusted Ogasawara twin Takageppo came through with his fourth win, though there's still a chance that he and his brother could end up with matching 4-3 records again. In the backup squad oldster Tanno's resurgence came to an end today; no fifth straight KK for the 22nd-oldest man in sumo. (Wow, there are 20 rikishi aged 35 or above now?! That seems a lot.)

Anyway, nobody got today's three non-unanimous decisions correct, so things are staying tight at the top of the standings. Already-trailing ryafuji and Asojima each only got one of those picks right, so they remain stuck in the cellar. Vikanohara also didn't have a good time of it, being the only one to miss out on all three.

Day 11:

10/18 Decisions, TB 8-21

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Gusoyama

8

16

2

Asashosakari

8

17

2

satsuhikari

8

17

4

Mmikasazuma

8

19

5

Holleshoryu

8

20

6

Jejima

7

16

6

Profomisakari

7

16

8

ryafuji

6

16

9

Vikanohara

6

18

10

Asojima

5

16

Up for tomorrow: Shin-juryo Daido has been defying (my) expectations and will get his first opportunity for kachikoshi against Chiyohakuho. And down in sandanme, the trio of Takatoshi, Amatsu and Akinoyama all stand at 2-3 and will try to avoid their fourth loss.

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Day 12:

It's getting rather empty at the tail end of the ballot - Amatsu and Akinoyama both lost today and dropped to 2-4, so now the three lowest-ranking rikishi have all failed to continue their streak. In more positive news, Daido took advantage of his first shot at KK. The two sandanme decisions were split right down the middle in the balloting, Daido's KK was even foreseen only by 3 out of 10 players, so there's nobody who managed to go 3-for-3 today. Gusoyama, Mmikasazuma and Vikanohara at least got two correct, everybody else scored one point. As Gusoyama and Mmikasazuma were already in front they form the new leaders duo.

The guys hoping to graduate onto the ballot are spectacularly bad this basho: Small Tochitsubasa (ex-Kagaya) sees his injury return stopped with makekoshi at Ms20w now, and the two shin-makuuchi Okinoumi and Sagatsukasa are both 5-7 after today and will likely end their KK streaks at 4, as well. Only two more backup rikishi are still in the running, as Tochihiryu and Kishi improved to 3-3 today and may still join Baruto on the way up. More and more it looks like the tie-breaker score will finish below everyone's expectations.

Day 12:

13/18 Decisions, TB 9-18

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Gusoyama

10

16

2

Mmikasazuma

10

19

3

Asashosakari

9

17

3

satsuhikari

9

17

5

Holleshoryu

9

20

6

Jejima

8

16

6

Profomisakari

8

16

8

Vikanohara

8

18

9

ryafuji

7

16

10

Asojima

6

16

Up for tomorrow: Kaio's first shot at securing kachikoshi, albeit against yokozuna Hakuho, and decisions for our two undecided makushita rikishi: Aoki goes against recent juryo Kotoyutaka and Azumaryu is up against Rikiryu. As both were unanimously predicted for KK, these bouts won't affect the overall standings, but it might be a bit pathetic if we all ended up getting them wrong...

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Day 13:

And the worst-case scenario is here, courtesy of makekoshi-clinching losses for both Aoki and Azumaryu. Well done, all of us. (Blinking...) Not much else to report today - Kaio failed to beat Hakuho, so nobody scored any points today and the standings remain unchanged. Sokokurai also dropped his bout and has his back to the wall at 6-7 now. At least the backup guys are still stirring: Okinoumi and Sagatsukasa keep fighting for their KK, now at 6-7, and the two remaining toriteki Tochihiryu and Kishi were both victorious today to finish 4-3, the latter earning his sandanme debut (but probably not his missing "ri") in the process.

Yusho possibilities... With three slots remaining and no low-ballot rikishi among them it should be possible to preview the potential outcomes, so here goes:

Kaio KK, Sokokurai KK, Takatoshi KK: outright 13-point yusho for Mmikasazuma

Kaio KK, Sokokurai KK, Takatoshi MK: four-way tie at 12 points; satsuhikari drops out on first bracket, Asashosakari and Gusoyama on second, leaving Mmikasazuma as the winner

Kaio KK, Sokokurai MK, Takatoshi KK: two-way tie at 12 points between Gusoyama and Mmikasazuma, tiebreaker decision as above

Kaio KK, Sokokurai MK, Takatoshi MK: outright 13-point yusho for Gusoyama

Kaio MK, Sokokurai KK, Takatoshi KK: outright 12-point yusho for Mmikasazuma

Kaio MK, Sokokurai KK, Takatoshi MK: five-way tie at 11 points; same participants as in the four-way tie above plus Jejima - who eventually loses to Mmikasazuma on the sixth bracket

Kaio MK, Sokokurai MK, Takatoshi KK: two-way tie at 11 points between Gusoyama and Mmikasazuma; you know the outcome by now...

Kaio MK, Sokokurai MK, Takatoshi MK: outright 12-point yusho for Gusoyama

So, assuming the extremely likely kachikoshi for Kaio and and the likely but not guaranteed MK for Sokokurai, things will turn on tomorrow's bout for the Taka twin where he faces career sandanme Toho. A win will give Mmikasazuma the yusho no matter what, in the event of a loss she'll have to hope for Sokokurai to pull through with two wins on the final days.

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Day 14:

Kaio decided to clinch his kachikoshi early, and Takatoshi also kept his streak alive - giving Mmikasazuma the yusho. Congratulations! (Holiday feeling...) Sokokurai is still in the running after a win today; his bout tomorrow will decide who gets the jun-yusho. It'll be Gusoyama with a loss and last basho's yusho winner Holleshoryu with a win.

Meanwhile the last chance for somebody to hit the tie-break number has faded after backupper Sagatsukasa dropped to MK. Okinoumi is still hanging in for senshuraku.

Day 14:

17/18 Decisions, TB 13-15

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Mmikasazuma

12

19

2

Gusoyama

11

16

2

Holleshoryu

11

20

4

Asashosakari

10

17

4

Profomisakari

10

16

4

satsuhikari

10

17

7

Vikanohara

9

18

8

Jejima

8

16

9

ryafuji

7

16

10

Asojima

6

16

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Senshuraku:

Strong finishes by both Sokokurai and Okinoumi resulted in kachikoshi for both, and they will maintain and gain a spot on the ballot, respectively. Holleshoryu takes the jun-yusho behind Mmikasazuma. Final standings:

Day 15:

18/18 Decisions, TB 15

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Mmikasazuma

13

19

2

Holleshoryu

12

20

3

Asashosakari

11

17

3

Gusoyama

11

16

3

Profomisakari

11

16

3

satsuhikari

11

17

7

Jejima

9

16

7

Vikanohara

9

18

9

Asojima

7

16

9

ryafuji

7

16

All in all Haru basho brought 7 exits and 4 arrivals to the KK streaker club:

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I've changed my mind on whether to publish a banzuke for the game. I'm still not sure that it isn't a bit silly, but hey, there's sillier stuff in sumo gaming so why not. Record conversion rules:

Points scored, plus a one-point bonus each for 1) having the top score of the basho, and 2) hitting the tie-breaker. Taking the average of the resulting scores, everything is then adjusted to provide a decent KK/MK split. This will generally mean adding/subtracting as many points as is necessary to get the average closest to 7.5, though I reserve the right to deviate from this.

Since the second basho had extremely screwed-up scores (9 out of 12 players finished with the same result), the first two basho were combined to create the first banzuke. Here are the combined scores:

2009.05/2009.07:

Jejima 16 (7+top / 7+top)

Mmikasazuma 12 (6 / 5+tb)

Asashosakari 11 (6 / 5)

Gusoyama 11 (6 / 5)

Profomisakari 11 (6 / 5)

Fay 11 (5 / 6)

Kintamayama 10 (5 / 4+tb)

Sashohitowa 10 (5 / 5)

Tamanaogijima 10 (5 / 5)

Asojima 9 (4 / 5)

Oshirokita 9 (4 / 5)

Shumitto 8 (7+top / absent)

Sokkenaiyama 8 (7+top / absent)

Zentoryu 7 (6+tb / absent)

Shimodahito 6 (6 / absent)

Ilovetochinoshin 5 (absent / 5)

Barang 4 (4 / absent)

Holleshoryu 4 (4 / absent)

Total: 162 points in 29 entries ---> average 5.59

I've forgotten how I broke ties when I drew up the banzuke a few months ago, but I'm sure I had some rule for it... Anyway, here's the inaugural banzuke for Aki 2009:

Jejima		 O   ---
Mmikasazuma	S   Fay
Profomisakari  K1  Gusoyama
---			K2  Asashosakari
Tamanaogijima  M1  Sashohitowa
Kintamayama	M2  Oshirokita
Asojima		M3  shumitto
Sokkenaiyama   M4  Zentoryu
shimodahito	M5  ilovetochinoshin
Holleshoryu	M6  Barang

---

2009.09:

Asojima 9 (7+top+tb)

ryafuji 8 (7+top)

Sashohitowa 8 (7+top)

shumitto 8 (7+top)

Zentoryu 8 (7+top)

Asashosakari 7 (6+tb)

Profomisakari 6

satsuhikari 6

Kana-san 6 (5+tb)

Jejima 5

Kintamayama 4

Tamanaogijima 4

Total: 79 / 12 ---> 6.58 ---> +1

Banzuke for Kyushu 2009:

Jejima (Oe, 6-9)			  O   ---
Asojima (M3e, 10-5 Y)		 S1  Sashohitowa (M1w, 9-6 J)
---						   S2  Asashosakari (K2w, 8-7)
shumitto (M3w, 9-6 J)		 K   Zentoryu (M4w, 9-6 J)
Mmikasazuma (Se, kosho)	   M1  Fay (Sw, kosho)
Profomisakari (K1e, 7-8)	  M2  Gusoyama (K1w, kosho)
ryafuji (NR, 9-6 J)		   M3  Oshirokita (M2w, kosho)
Tamanaogijima (M1e, 5-10)	 M4  Kintamayama (M2e, 5-10)
satsuhikari (NR, 7-8)		 M5  Kana-san (NR, 7-8)
ilovetochinoshin (M5w, kosho) M6  Sokkenaiyama (M4e, 0-0-15)
shimodahito (M5e, 0-0-15)	 M7  Holleshoryu (M6e, 0-0-15)
Barang (M6w, 0-0-15)		  M8  ---

---

2009.11:

Kintamayama 9 (8+top)

Asojima 9 (8+top)

Asashosakari 7

Fay 7

Jejima 7

Tamanaogijima 7

Barang 6

Profomisakari 6

Sashohitowa 6

Zentoryu 6

ryafuji 5

Total: 75 / 11 ---> 6.82 ---> +1

Banzuke for Hatsu 2010:

Jejima (Oe, 8-7)		  O   Asojima (S1e, 10-5 D)
Asashosakari (S2w, 8-7)   S   Kintamayama (M4w, 10-5 Y)
Fay (M1w, 8-7)			K   Sashohitowa (S1w, 7-8)
shumitto (Ke, kosho)	  M1  Tamanaogijima (M4e, 8-7)
Zentoryu (Kw, 7-8)		M2  Profomisakari (M2e, 7-8)
ryafuji (M3e, 6-9)		M3  Barang (M8e, 7-8)
satsuhikari (M5e, kosho)  M4  Kana-san (M5w, kosho)
Gusoyama (M2w, 0-0-15)	M5  Mmikasazuma (M1e, 0-0-15)
Oshirokita (M3w, 0-0-15)  M6  ilovetochinoshin (M6e, 0-0-15)

---

2010.01:

Holleshoryu 16 (15+top)

Asashosakari 16 (15+top)

Sashohitowa 16 (15+top)

Vikanohara 16 (15+top)

Gusoyama 15 (14+tb)

Asojima 14

Profomisakari 14

Kintamayama 13

Mmikasazuma 13

ryafuji 13

Fay 11

Jejima 11

Total: 168 / 12 ---> 14.00 ---> -6

Banzuke for Haru 2010:

Asojima (Ow, 8-7)		  O   Jejima (Oe, 5-10)
Asashosakari (Se, 10-5 D)  S   Sashohitowa (Kw, 10-5 D)
Holleshoryu (NR, 10-5 Y)   K   Vikanohara (NR, 10-5 D)
Kintamayama (Sw, 7-8)	  M1  Profomisakari (M2w, 8-7)
Gusoyama (M5e, 9-6)		M2  Zentoryu (M2e, kosho)
ryafuji (M3e, 7-8)		 M3  Barang (M3w, kosho)
Fay (Ke, 5-10)			 M4  Mmikasazuma (M5w, 7-8)
shumitto (M1e, 0-0-15)	 M5  satsuhikari (M4e, 0-0-15)
Kana-san (M4w, 0-0-15)	 M6  ---

---

2010.03:

Mmikasazuma 14 (13+top)

Holleshoryu 12

Asashosakari 11

Gusoyama 11

Profomisakari 11

satsuhikari 11

Jejima 9

Vikanohara 9

Asojima 7

ryafuji 7

Total: 104 / 10 ---> 10.4 ---> -3

Banzuke for Natsu 2010:

Asojima (Oe, 4-11)		 O   ---
Asashosakari (Se, 8-7)	 S1  Holleshoryu (Ke, 9-6 J)
Mmikasazuma (M4w, 11-4 Y)  S2  Jejima (Ow, 6-9)
Profomisakari (M1w, 8-7)   K   Gusoyama (M2e, 8-7)
Sashohitowa (Sw, kosho)	M1  Kintamayama (M1e, kosho)
Vikanohara (Kw, 6-9)	   M2  satsuhikari (M5w, 8-7)
ryafuji (M3e, 4-11)		M3  Fay (M4e, kosho)
Zentoryu (M2w, 0-0-15)	 M4  Barang (M3w, 0-0-15)

Edited by Asashosakari

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I assume I am VERY kadoban. (Clapping wildly...) (Clapping wildly...) (Holiday feeling...)

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