The New Banzuke

[Mark Buckton 1]

A very good morning from Tokyo,

Here it is:

EAST

Y - Asashoryu

O1 - Chiyotaikai

O2 - Kaio

S - Wakanosato

K - Takamisakari

WEST

Y - Musasimaru

O1 - Tochiazuma

O2 - Musoyama

S - Kyokutenho

K - Iwakiyama

because it is late night in Europe there you are - rest / full will take about 20 mins or so

ANR

[Mark Buckton 1]

Numero Uno - wild applause - here you go

Back from the Kokugikan - about 40 men outside with me the youngest by far. Enough of the small talk - this is what you all want. (hope my Kanji reading makes no mistakes)

EAST

Y - Asashoryu

O1 - Chiyotaikai

O2 - Kaio

S - Wakanosato

K - Takamisakari

M1 - Tochinonada

M2 - Toki

M3 - Aminishiki

M4 - Miyabiyama

M5 - Takanonami

M6 - Kinkaiyama

M7 - Hokutouriki

M8 - Buyuzan

M9 - Kasuganishiki

M10- Jumonji

M11- Wakatoba

M12- Kotonowaka

M13- Tamakasuga

M14- Toyozakura

M15-Tamarikido

WEST

Y - Musasimaru

O1 - Tochiazuma

O2 - Musoyama

S - Kyokutenho

K - Iwakiyama

M1 - Kotomitsuki

M2 - Tosanoumi

M3 - Tamanoshima

M4 - Asasekiryu

M5 - Kyokushuzan

M6 - Tokitsuumi

M7 - Kotoryu

M8 - Kakizoe

M9 - Shimotori

M10- Tochisakae

M11- Takekaze

M12- Takanowaka

M13- Outsukasa

M14- Dejima

M15- Youtsukasa

next one out on Dec24th.

ANR

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

FAST!!!

:-| :-/ (Sigh...)

A simple attempt of an HTML table...

EAST Y - Asashoryu O1 - Chiyotaikai O2 - Kaio S - Wakanosato K - Takamisakari M1 - Tochinonada M2 - Toki M3 - Aminishiki M4 - Miyabiyama M5 - Takanonami M6 - Kinkaiyama M7 - Hokutoriki M8 - Buyuzan M9 - Kasuganishiki M10- Jumonji M11- Wakatoba M12- Kotonowaka M13- Tamakasuga M14- Toyozakura M15- Tamarikido

WEST Y - Musashimaru O1 - Tochiazuma O2 - Musoyama S - Kyokutenho K - Iwakiyama M1 - Kotomitsuki M2 - Tosanoumi M3 - Tamanoshima M4 - Asasekiryu M5 - Kyokushuzan M6 - Tokitsuumi M7 - Kotoryu M8 - Kakizoe M9 - Shimotori M10- Tochisakae M11- Takekaze M12- Takanowaka M13- Otsukasa M14- Dejima M15- Yotsukasa

Edited December 14, 2004 by Exil

[Mark Buckton 1]

Yuichi-san,

how the devil do you get those little icon type thingys? Tried and failed many times.

ANR

Also, don't know if this has been tried before or not but I have some spares of the banzuke - not many but about 5. Anybody want one sending to them?

ANR

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

how the devil do you get those little icon type thingys? Tried and failed many times.

Have you been using only Fast Reply? Try Add Reply and you'll find few dozens of ready-to-click emoticons. From the Show All link at the bottom you'll find even more.

[Asashosakari 20,222]

Poor Otsukasa, only from M15e to M13w due to all the promotees being so strong. And idiot me had him up at M11w because I just couldn't see them being so harsh on him...needless to say, the first GTB guess I made while half-asleep (right after senshuraku) did have him at 13w. Maybe I should start sending in my guesses ASAP too instead of waiting for the last day...

And a round o' thanks to Adachinoryu-zeki for the speedy posting of the banzuke! :-/

[Mark Buckton 1]

As much as the top areas interest me so does the promotion from Juryo.

Whilst giving it all time to sink in though can anyone explain the following:

CURRENT BANZUKE

EAST

M13- Tamakasuga (former EJ1 10-5 record)

M14- Toyozakura (former WJ2 10-5 record)

WEST

M11- Takekaze (former EJ5 13-2 record) EJ5!!!

M12- Takanowaka (former EJ3 12-3 record)

Is it me or is that weird? How does Takekaze jump so high especially when it was Takanowaka that beat him? Admittedly he did beat the other 2 that went up but how? (FYI - his second loss came against Shimotori)

ANR

[Asashosakari 20,222]

As much as the top areas interest me so does the promotion from Juryo.

Whilst giving it all time to sink in though can anyone explain the following:

CURRENT BANZUKE

EAST

M13- Tamakasuga (former EJ1 10-5 record)

M14- Toyozakura (former WJ2 10-5 record)

WEST

M11- Takekaze (former EJ5 13-2 record) EJ5!!!

M12- Takanowaka (former EJ3 12-3 record)

Is it me or is that weird? How does Takekaze jump so high especially when it was Takanowaka that beat him? Admittedly he did beat the other 2 that went up but how? (FYI - his second loss came against Shimotori)

ANR

FWIW, sometimes there seems (to me, at least) to be a certain bonus for the Juryo yusho winner if they can get away with it. The direct encounter usually doesn't appear to matter much though.

But even discounting the possible existence of a yusho bonus, it's not so unusual lately that one more win can compensate for two full ranks...just look at Aminishiki (10-5 at M9w) who passed by Tamanoshima (9-6 at M7w). In Takekaze and Takanowaka's case, it's compounded by Kotonowaka's keeping of M12e, which made Takekaze's advantage even bigger than normal. But don't ask me why they're doing it, I have no idea. :-/

[Fujisan 533]

What interests me most in a morbid way is Kaihos drop to Juryo after 5 years in the top flight-That has to hurt.

[Zentoryu 154]

ANR

FWIW, sometimes there seems (to me, at least) to be a certain bonus for the Juryo yusho winner if they can get away with it. The direct encounter usually doesn't appear to matter much though.

But even discounting the possible existence of a yusho bonus, it's not so unusual lately that one more win can compensate for two full ranks...just look at Aminishiki (10-5 at M9w) who passed by Tamanoshima (9-6 at M7w). In Takekaze and Takanowaka's case, it's compounded by Kotonowaka's keeping of M12e, which made Takekaze's advantage even bigger than normal. But don't ask me why they're doing it, I have no idea. :-/

As Kotoseiya would say, who they beat and who won the Yusho has nothing to do with it.

Based on pure wins over losses, they should both end up promoted to the same rank. Takekaze rising 11 spots based on his 13-2 and Takanowaka rising 9 based on his 12-3. That *should* put them both at M9 with Takekaze getting the east side with his better record.

But because of the road block of rikishi ahead of them, Takekaze simply got preference over Takanowaka (which he should based on simple banzuke making rules of thumb).

[Asashosakari 20,222]

I'm not sure "wins over losses = promotion steps" is any good as an indicator for close promotions, either. For a while it seemed to work fine using 3 half-ranks per win as the deciding rule, but the Kyokai seems to jump back and forth between 3 and 4 these days. This time, one win was good enough to bypass 4 half-ranks (in the two cases mentioned, at least), two months ago it wasn't (Iwakiyama/Kasuganishiki).

And Kotomitsuki should be ahead of Tochinonada now if they had applied it consistently.

We can either chalk it all up to the Kyokai's whims, or grasp for non-win based factors in explaining it, e.g. Aminishiki got preferential treatment because he was the only one to get double-digit wins in the lower Maegashira ranks, and Takekaze did because of his yusho, or what-have-you.

As soon as somebody conclusively proves that the whim explanation is the correct one, I'll start tossing coins to decide close promotions. :-/

[Zentoryu 154]

I'm not sure "wins over losses = promotion steps" is any good as an indicator for close promotions, either.

Yes, but in the specific case of Takekaze over Takanowaka, this is indeed what happened.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

I'll start tossing coins to decide close promotions. (Laughing...)

I've been doing that since June 1878. There actually would be a formula for all this stuff...?!?!? :-O (Blinking...) (In a state of confusion...)

[Asashosakari 20,222]

I'm not sure "wins over losses = promotion steps" is any good as an indicator for close promotions, either.

Yes, but in the specific case of Takekaze over Takanowaka, this is indeed what happened.

Aww, c'mon, that's creating a causality where none is obvious. By the same token, I could claim that J5e who get a 13-2 always get promoted to M11w, and that's why Takekaze ended up on that rank. As an explanation of that one specific case it works perfectly, but as a rule of thumb it would obviously be useless.

I'll start tossing coins to decide close promotions. (Laughing...)

I've been doing that since June 1878. There actually would be a formula for all this stuff...?!?!? :-O (Blinking...) (In a state of confusion...)

Of course there is. The hard part is in figuring out which of their many formulas the Kyokai will use for any given banzuke. :-D

Edited October 27, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Zentoryu 154]

I'm not sure "wins over losses = promotion steps" is any good as an indicator for close promotions, either.

Yes, but in the specific case of Takekaze over Takanowaka, this is indeed what happened.

Aww, c'mon, that's creating a causality where none is obvious. By the same token, I could claim that J5e who get a 13-2 always get promoted to M11w, and that's why Takekaze ended up on that rank. As an explanation of that one specific case it works perfectly, but as a rule of thumb it would obviously be useless.

That's why they're called "rules of thumb". It's a baseline they use for deciding promotions, particularly in the case of Maegashira and Juryo, not a hard fact. It's what "should" happen, not what "always" happens.

In the case of Takanowaka and Takekaze it's VERY obvious that they followed these simple rules. I NEVER said that they do this in EVERY single case. To do so would suggest that I could read the Kyokai's mind, and no one ever knows what exactly the men in black are thinking. If we did, then the GTB would be no fun now would it? (In a state of confusion...)

In the case of Kotomitsuki and Tochinonada, as has been pointed out before by other people, the kyokai seems to follow a whole different road when it comes to Sanyaku promotions. If they followed a set rule, Kotomitsuki would be a Komusubi right now, as you correctly pointed out.

Edited October 27, 2003 by Zentoryu

[Asashosakari 20,222]

Edit #2 to fix a quoting mistake. (In a state of confusion...)

That's why they're called "rules of thumb". It's a baseline they use for deciding promotions, particularly in the case of Maegashira and Juryo, not a hard fact. It's what "should" happen, not what "always" happens.

The thing is, I've seen that guideline mentioned as far back as the early SML days, but it just doesn't seem to hold up to scrutiny, so I'm suspicious. As I mentioned, using 3 half-ranks per win difference instead of 4 half-ranks has seemed to work much better in recent times, but that appears to be changing (again?).

In the case of Takanowaka and Takekaze it's VERY obvious that they followed these simple rules.

Yeah, but I can't shake the feeling that, if the same situation had arisen two months ago, it may very well have gone the other way. (They did go the other way re: Iwakiyama/Kasuganishiki after all.) And something that needs so many qualifiers as to its application can hardly be called a "simple rule" anymore. (Blinking...)

Edited October 27, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Mark Buckton 1]

Notwithstanding the answers thus far given, one thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is this:

Takanowaka has already had his chance, got to sekiwake, came all the way back down and is getting no younger.

Is he, looking at the bigger picture, worth promoting so fast when he (probably) won't be getting any nosebleeds from heights reached again?

ANR

[Asashosakari 20,222]

Should've killed that response sooner... (Oops! )

I won't tell if you don't. (In a state of confusion...) (See above.)

[Zentoryu 154]

Should've killed that response sooner...  (Oops! )

I won't tell if you don't. (Blinking...) (See above.)

I won't either... (In a state of confusion...)

[Kintamayama 47,175]

Notwithstanding the answers thus far given, one thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is this:

Takanowaka has already had his chance, got to sekiwake, came all the way back down and is getting no younger.

Is he, looking at the bigger picture, worth promoting so fast when he (probably) won't be getting any nosebleeds from heights reached again? 

ANR

He wasn't promoted fast. If anything, he should have gotten a bigger promotion. A 12-3 from Juryo 3? The block around M10-11 denied him the promotion he deserved. He was demoted because of a serious injury just as we was really blooming.. He will definitely be hovering around Sekiwake, and may even manage an Ozeki rank. Anyway, future guessing of a rikishi's prospects are totally irrelevant to his promotions/demotions. How can anyone know?

Edited October 27, 2003 by Kintamayama

[Mark Buckton 1]

Notwithstanding the answers thus far given, one thing that hasn't been mentioned at all is this:

Takanowaka has already had his chance, got to sekiwake, came all the way back down and is getting no younger.

Is he, looking at the bigger picture, worth promoting so fast when he (probably) won't be getting any nosebleeds from heights reached again? 

ANR

He wasn't promoted fast. If anything, he should have gotten a bigger promotion. A 12-3 from Juryo 3? The block around M10-11 denied him the promotion he deserved. He was demoted because of a serious injury just as we was really blooming.. He will definitely be hovering around Sekiwake, and may even mange an Ozeki rank. Anyway, future chances of a rikishi are totally irrelevant to his promotions/demotions. And what the heck are "future chances' anyhow?? How can anyone know?

Kintamayama-san

bit confused by your post.

First you said "He will definitely be hovering around Sekiwake, and may even mange an Ozeki rank"

but later you wrapped up with "How can anyone know?"

Huh??

Also, who mentioned the future chances you refer to in "Anyway, future chances of a rikishi are totally irrelevant to his promotions/demotions. And what the heck are "future chances' anyhow??"

I mentioned age - undisputable - older = closer to retirement. Never mentioned future chances.

ANR

[Asashosakari 20,222]

That's why they're called "rules of thumb". It's a baseline they use for deciding promotions, particularly in the case of Maegashira and Juryo, not a hard fact. It's what "should" happen, not what "always" happens.

Never one to miss a chance to "prove" points via statistics, here's what I've come up with for the period starting Hatsu 2002. The following should be all cases in which two Maegashira rikishi went KK, were exactly two ranks apart and the lower-ranked won one more bout; or were exactly four ranks apart with the lower-ranked winning two more bouts. ("Should" because it's 4am here and it's conceivable I overlooked an example.) Cases in which one of them was promoted to sanyaku have been thrown out - as you rightly pointed out, the promotions get more fuzzy up there almost by default. Anyway, with apologies for the messy format, I hope it makes sense anyway...

2002.01: 

Edited October 27, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

Juryo banzuke seems to be available now as well. Banzuke topics isn't yet. (In a state of confusion...)

[Kintamayama 47,175]

[

Kintamayama-san

bit confused by your post.

First you said "He will definitely be hovering around Sekiwake, and may even mange an Ozeki rank"

but later you wrapped up with "How can anyone know?"

Huh??

Also, who mentioned the future chances you refer to in "Anyway, future chances of a rikishi are totally irrelevant to his promotions/demotions. And what the heck are "future chances' anyhow??"

I mentioned age - undisputable - older = closer to retirement.  Never mentioned future chances.

ANR

Well, don't be confused. The " hovering around sekiwake" thing was my personal guess. The "how can anyone know' thingy was referring to the Kyokai's not factoring rikishis' age/retirement chances etc.. "future guessing of a rikishi's prospects are totally irrelevant to his promotions/demotions", is what I wrote. I personally think he will be hovering around Sekiwake..

Takanowaka is close to retirement? He is 27. So is Chiyotaikai. So is Tochiazuma. that's close to the average Makuuchi rikishi's age.

The future chances thingy was edited by me immediately after writing it, since I got it confused with a discussion I had with someone else. The post, as edited and appears on the forum, is the post that should be read.

Edited October 27, 2003 by Kintamayama

[Takanorappa 97]

I was a bit surprised by Dejima's plummet of 4.5 slots (count each E/W as .5) on a 6-9 record at J10E. Normally, he would have ended up around J13E (or even J12W -- 6-9's tend to get "derated"). Instead he ended up at J14W. Is the NHK sending a message to the former Ozeki?

My guess is that they wanted to reward Tamakasuga for the 10-5 at J01E. T'kasuga definitely deserved the bump up he got, but there is precedence for J01E to move to up only one slot. Whe in doubt, I guess, give the KK the move up...

Same thing probably happened to Yotsukasa (a 2-slot drop with a 7-8) to give Toyozakura a little breathing room as a shin-maku.