Least likely to achieve KK in Natsu

[higginbotham 0]

Not trying to say that everyone else is wrong, but I would like the Kokkai doubters to state what they are basing their doubts on. If it's just a gut feeling, I can respect that. Basing predictions on bout history often has been my undoing on the sumo game.

I think he is joi-jin material. No more, no less. He certainly didn't belong down where he has been lately. This whole "I'm that- yotsu- guy" schtick doesn't fly with me. Down where he was, that "strategy" could work, and it did. Where he is now with the likes of who he has to handle, I give him 5 wins, and I'm being generous here. Having a fellow Georgian in Makuuchi should be a great incentive, but if he doesn't watch out, in one or two basho he will be the second highest ranking Georgian in the vi-llage.

I'll be more than willing to eat my words. I like him a lot. But Disneyland is closed for the summer.

Maybe people is more affraid of Kokkai returning to his old self after a couple of losses up there. It is a considerable risk and it would not help his sumo much. Anyway, Wakanoho looks like a better guess right now... from this bunch

[messi19 0]

Wasn't Tochinoshin fighting with a badly injured big toe when he got the juryo yusho?

I don't know if it was "badly injured", but it was indeed hurt in a bout with Shirononami on Day 7.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7SwXmxfCgk

Anyway, a rikishi like Tochinoshin can overcome such an injury. His yotsu-sumo is so sound and his yorikiri's usually look so "clean" and convincing. I tend to agree with Kintamayama that he will eventually (probably sometime this year) become the better of the Georgians as far as banzuke ranking is concerned.

Edited May 1, 2008 by messi19

[higginbotham 0]

Wasn't Tochinoshin fighting with a badly injured big toe when he got the juryo yusho?

I don't know if it was "badly injured", but it was indeed hurt in a bout with Shirononami on Day 7.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7SwXmxfCgk

Anyway, a rikishi like Tochinoshin can overcome such an injury. His yotsu-sumo is so sound and his yorikiri's usually look so "clean" and convincing. I tend to agree with Kintamayama that he will eventually (probably sometime this year) become the better of the Georgians as far as banzuke ranking is concerned.

Besides that there is the lower back issue, and once he was seen tapped on both elbows in a keiko session. There are so some injuries to overcome. Good luck to him !!!

[Kotoviki 16]

Tochinoshin did win the juryo yusho with a broken toe. He was in terrible pain taking pain medicines and keeping his foot taped up. He was starting to feel some relief when he hurt it again sometime before the last day. I think his tolerance to pain is outstanding!

After the Hatsubasho he started having back pains. This is my own thought nothing he has said to me but I wondered if he might have hurt his back while trying to avoid hurting his foot during the matches after his injury. I'm not sure that even makes sense to me but I mean that he could have been doing something different due to the foot injury that could cause him to use his back differently?

Before Osaka basho we talked and he said he was fine, back a little pain, foot recovered everything was fine.. but soon later I heard his back was really bothering him. He worried that he could even get his kachi-koshi due to his back but he did. Again showing that he has a great tolerance to pain!

Talking to him yesterday he says he is good! No mention of any back problems now.

Since I suffer back pain from a herniated disk about 5 years back I know that back pain can stay with you forever, creeping up when you least expect it. Sometimes I am totally fine and sometimes I can't stand from the futon without great pain! I find it gets worse as the weather warms up in spring. I was seemingly fine during the winter months! So, I wish him well. Back pain is 2nd to a bad toothache in my book!

He is young and strong and has a long way to go!!!

[Bealzbob 0]

Have to say I am amazed in the faith being put in Baruto. Amazed and pleased I might add. I suspect he might be a lot of people's 2nd choice but that others are proving too tempting to choose in this poll (perhaps I should have added a 2nd poll of 'and who's 2nd most likely' which Baruto might run away with). To be honest I'd have expected Tochinoshin to have been voted the least likely to MK. Not long to wait now though :D

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

Have to say I am amazed in the faith being put in Baruto. Amazed and pleased I might add. I suspect he might be a lot of people's 2nd choice but that others are proving too tempting to choose in this poll (perhaps I should have added a 2nd poll of 'and who's 2nd most likely' which Baruto might run away with). To be honest I'd have expected Tochinoshin to have been voted the least likely to MK. Not long to wait now though :D

Hey, Bealzbob!

Forgive me for having an unoriginal thought, but I started a Baruto vs. Kokkai: "M1 who will do better?" thread on another forum that's name is known to all.

So far, Baruto is at 84.6% and will likely increase as more votes come in. No big surprise, but I like to hear people take a stand and record their predictions for later ridicule.

I have been thinking about it a lot and I think there's a certain someone who's style of sumo is is likely to damage Baruto's knee again. But I don't want to say who and expose myself to ridicule if I'm wrong.

[messi19 0]

Hmm, I'd be interested in which rikishi you're thinking of...though if that rikishi - whoever it is - doesn't end up damaging Baruto's knee in the next couple of basho it wouldn't necessarily mean that you're wrong since a lot of things need to come together for such an unfortunate event to happen.

Thinking along those lines.. the Kotoshogiku-Baruto matchup will be one to follow, but I'm probably just saying that with their last bout in mind when Kotoshogiku's gaburi style forced the crushing abisetaoshi and left Baruto with a major knee injury.

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

OK. You guessed it.

Kotoshogiku's gaburi if properly timed to Baruto's tsuri attempt will be hell on his knees.

I wonder by what day that match-up will come. If it happens early, Bartuo won't kachi koshi.

Actually, I was less worried about ridicule than giving up my advantage with Pollyannas playing the Sumo Game.

Keep dreaming....

Edited May 7, 2008 by That-Satsu-Guy

[Bealzbob 0]

I like to hear people take a stand and record their predictions for later ridicule.

But I don't want to say who and expose myself to ridicule if I'm wrong.

Wow you really invest a lot of thought into the whole 'later ridicule' thing :-D I say let it all hang out and we can all laugh about it afterwards. Am I right in thinking Asashoryu's sumo style would be 'less than sympathetic' to Baruto's plight ? I certainly think so. Which is why Asashoryu is so successful. Totally and utterly ruthless on the dohyo! Perhaps a good bouncing from Kotoshogiku wouldn't be what the doctor ordered either :-)

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

I like to hear people take a stand and record their predictions for later ridicule.

But I don't want to say who and expose myself to ridicule if I'm wrong.

Wow you really invest a lot of thought into the whole 'later ridicule' thing :-D I say let it all hang out and we can all laugh about it afterwards. Am I right in thinking Asashoryu's sumo style would be 'less than sympathetic' to Baruto's plight ? I certainly think so. Which is why Asashoryu is so successful. Totally and utterly ruthless on the dohyo! Perhaps a good bouncing from Kotoshogiku wouldn't be what the doctor ordered either :-)

Twas only a jest!

You know, "I want you to do something that I wouldn't do myself." If was really worried about other people's opinion of my opinions, I wouldn't post at all.

And I certainly wouldn't say:

"Who will get KK?"

High confidence: Kotooshu (must KK)

Confident: Kokkai and Tochinoshin (expected to KK)

Not much confidence: Baruto and Wakanoho (kind of too high on the banzuke to easily get KK, but who knows?)

Edited May 8, 2008 by That-Satsu-Guy

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

"So Satsu, how does it feel to be able to see into the future?"

It's OK, I guess....

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

"So Satsu, how does it feel to be able to see into the future?"

It's OK, I guess....

You could try some of the sumo games out there. Oh, and Kokkai... well, he won today but I'm not that confident in his kachi-koshi (never have been).

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

"So Satsu, how does it feel to be able to see into the future?"

It's OK, I guess....

You could try some of the sumo games out there. Oh, and Kokkai... well, he won today but I'm not that confident in his kachi-koshi (never have been).

Ah, well my question would be, "Who did you vote for, Doitsuyama?"

Kokkai will not KK, but I only said he was likely to, not that he would. Nor did I say that Baruto was light-years better than him like some others had suggested.

[Kintamayama 45,537]

"So Satsu, how does it feel to be able to see into the future?"

It's OK, I guess....

"I've actually warmed up to the idea of all of these guys getting least eight, but Wakanoho seems to be climbing too fast. "

That's seeing the future? Seems only Kotooushuu is sure of a KK. The rest? Far from decided..

Or were you referring to this one:

"High confidence: Kotooshu (must KK)

Confident: Kokkai and Tochinoshin"

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

"So Satsu, how does it feel to be able to see into the future?"

It's OK, I guess....

"I've actually warmed up to the idea of all of these guys getting least eight, but Wakanoho seems to be climbing too fast. "

That's seeing the future? Seems only Kotooushuu is sure of a KK. The rest? Far from decided..

Or were you referring to this one:

"High confidence: Kotooshu (must KK)

Confident: Kokkai and Tochinoshin"

This one:

"High confidence: Kotooshu (must KK)"

Of course, I was only joking about the seeing the future. I scored a three one day in the sumo game this basho.

I never thought Kotooshu would be 8-0, but I knew that he would shake kadoban off. After all, Chiyotaikai and Kaio do it all the time. And of course, the cheese on rice helps....

Do I need emoticons to show when I'm joking?

Edited May 18, 2008 by That-Satsu-Guy

[Doitsuyama 1,192]

You could try some of the sumo games out there. Oh, and Kokkai... well, he won today but I'm not that confident in his kachi-koshi (never have been).

Ah, well my question would be, "Who did you vote for, Doitsuyama?"

Kokkai will not KK, but I only said he was likely to, not that he would. Nor did I say that Baruto was light-years better than him like some others had suggested.

I voted for Wakanoho. Anway, I prefer to try my future visioniaries in sumo games, with greatly varying success - predicting the future is a tricky thing. Wakanoho is on 6 points and Kokkai on 4 points in my UDH game entry.

[Kintamayama 45,537]

Of course, I was only joking about the seeing the future. I scored a three one day in the sumo game this basho.

Do I need emoticons to show when I'm joking?

No, I guessed I missed the joke. Happens to me all the time, language barriers and all..

[Bealzbob 0]

Indeed. The Borg marches on. Wonder what odds on him @ K1w for Aki :)

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

I don't Wakanoho is any more likely to go MK in natsu than he was this time. He'll have virtually the same opponents and a bit more experience.

Baruto's knee will likely lead to an early withdrawal although I hope not.

I went with Kotooshu. He hasn't looked good for some time now and I think the level of opponents he is facing is moving up slightly as the younger generation start to come into their own.

[very smug expression] Told you so [/very smug expression]

(Sign of approval...)

Yeah, you did!

[mokele 3]

I can't contribute to the poll now, but my choice would have been Kokkai. He's improved his yotsu-zumo a bit lately, but that's from just plain awful to fair. The joi-jin ended up pounding the heck out of him. I thought that Baruto would do a lot better, but 5-10 just isn't good enough for such a giant guy with decent belt skills. He's slow, especially at the tachi-ai, and that's his downfall at this level.

[Asashosakari 19,675]

Indeed. The Borg marches on. Wonder what odds on him @ K1w for Aki :)

I have a feeling that normally he might get a lucky promotion to komusubi.

Doubtful. If there's one record that's least likely to earn lucky promotions in the presence of other candidates, it's 8-7.

[Asashosakari 19,675]

Doubtful. If there's one record that's least likely to earn lucky promotions in the presence of other candidates, it's 8-7.

Doubtful maybe but not without precedent. Kotonowaka and Tosanoumi have gone from M2 to K with 8 wins

M2w Kotonowaka 8-7 -> K1w

M5w Mitoizumi 9-6 -> M1w

M9w Kotofuji 11-4 -> M2e

M2w Tosanoumi 8-7 -> K1w

M6e Kotonowaka 9-6 -> M1w

M2w Wakanoho 8-7

M4w Aminishiki 10-5

M5w Toyonoshima 11-4

There's a reason I included the bolded part... If Aminishiki and Toyonoshima decide to declare their intai between now and Wednesday, and the komusubi decision comes down to Wakanoho and Hokutoriki, yeah, Wakanoho will probably be promoted to komusubi. Absent that, the current case isn't similar to those two old ones at all, so they don't qualify as precedent either. Wakanoho could have had a gino-sho-worthy performance with examplary manners, but 8 wins just doesn't cut it either way given the competition's results. Please let's not start engaging in the type of "magical" banzuke thinking that's so prevalent elsewhere where all kinds of obscure factors are used to explain certain banzuke decisions that are much more easily explained with the records alone.

Edited May 26, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 19,675]

I don't doubt that you know more about banzuke making but I think you are wrong to say it's purely a numbers game. If it were so simple everyone would have near perfect records in GTB. Manners, style of wins, etc etc do influence things. It may only be in small subtle ways but the oyakata are not robots and such things are bound to have some kind of effect.

I don't disagree that those play a role but...this is not a close case. If Wakanoho was 9-6, yeah, then it might become a judgement decision. But with 8-7 there's just no room for subtlety.

Likewise, I'm amazed there are people who believe that Aminishiki has the inside track on the first available komusubi slot over Toyonoshima. (Quick reality check: Who got the komusubi slot on the Haru banzuke, Asasekiryu or Takekaze?)

Edited May 26, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Bealzbob 0]

Asa & Nishi, I did say K1 @ Aki, not Nagoya. I fully expect him @ M1 for Nagoya, but another KK there was what I was pondering.

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

Likewise, I'm amazed there are people who believe that Aminishiki has the inside track on the first available komusubi slot over Toyonoshima. (Quick reality check: Who got the komusubi slot on the Haru banzuke, Asasekiryu or Takekaze?)

Crap, you're right! And you've hurt my feelings...

Although, if you take into account that Takekaze had a 12-3 record from M7e and won the kanto-sho, but Asasekiryu just had a 10-5 from M4w with no sansho. Takekaze's better record and sansho gave him a leg up. I guess...

It's not a fair comparison to Aminishiki M4w 10-5 with his shukun-sho, and Toyonoshima M5w 11-4 sharing the kanto-sho with Kisenosato. They both have a sansho and similar records, so, in this case, I think seniority will be the tie-breaker.

Oh, and Aminishiki had a harder torikumi this basho....