Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Kyushu 2025

[Koorifuu 1,125]

Second time in a row for Fujiseiun. Feeling bad for him.

[Reonito 1,814]

6 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Well, if nothing else we did get the closest possible outcome for that fourth slot, thanks to Seihakuho pulling out the kachikoshi while Hakuyozan dropped his last four bouts. I still don't expect it to make any difference, though.

I think you're right, but is there a recent case of someone who computes to Ms3 staying in juryo, at the expense of an available KK in the promotion zone? In the case of the two J14's who got to stay with 6-9 last year, they would have had to go below the invisible line. At least this makes for an interesting test case.

[Asashosakari 20,323]

1 hour ago, Reonito said:

I think you're right, but is there a recent case of someone who computes to Ms3 staying in juryo, at the expense of an available KK in the promotion zone? In the case of the two J14's who got to stay with 6-9 last year, they would have had to go below the invisible line. At least this makes for an interesting test case.

When they didn't promote Kyokukaiyu a couple of tournaments ago, Miyanokaze calculated to Ms2e...

[Asashosakari 20,323]

One thing I see going around elsewhere that's probably just wishful thinking but might actually make more sense than promoting Seihakuho is to save Mita instead of Hakuyozan.

[Hakumadashi 28]

Given how they've been treating outer joi 4-11 recently, I'd be surprised if Hiradoumi and Oshoma didn't get A LOT of leniency. For Shodai sadly I see bad news after an early draft of mine. Don't see how he could profit from the same leniency.

[Reonito 1,814]

Hakuyozan would be the most extreme non-demotion of the last few years (and that's saying something with this banzuke committee), aside from the above-mentioned 6-9 J14's.

[Asashosakari 20,323]

6 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Hakuyozan would be the most extreme non-demotion of the last few years (and that's saying something with this banzuke committee), aside from the above-mentioned 6-9 J14's.

Only half a rank out from Daishoho last year, though.

[Reonito 1,814]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Only half a rank out from Daishoho last year, though.

True, and Kotokuzan was a stronger replacement candidate.

[Reonito 1,814]

On 21/11/2025 at 22:23, Asashosakari said:

A quick "preview" of the next Ms top 5 ranks with one day to go...YMMV about some of these assumptions:

certainties (7)

Mita (J3e 0-3-11)
Himukamaru (J13e 4-10)
Shiden (J14e 5-7-2)

Takakento (Ms1e 3-4)
Inami (Ms6e 4-3)
Yoshii (Ms6w 4-3)

Tochimusashi (Ms9w 5-1)

possibles (3 out of 7)

Shimazuumi (Ms2w 3-4)
Okaryu (Ms8w 4-3)
Shimanoumi (Ms11e 5-2)

Seihakuho (Ms5w 3-3)

Tenshoho (Ms8e 4-2)
Kotokenryu (Ms10e 4-2)

Fukuzaki (Ms14w 5-1)

Tenshoho and Kotokenryu are facing each other on senshuraku.

We can add 4-3 Seihakuho and Fukuzaki (6-1) as certainties. The last spot goes to Kotokenryu (5-2), I guess?

[Yamanashi 4,091]

5 hours ago, Hakumadashi said:

Given how they've been treating outer joi 4-11 recently, I'd be surprised if Hiradoumi and Oshoma didn't get A LOT of leniency. For Shodai sadly I see bad news after an early draft of mine. Don't see how he could profit from the same leniency.

Narutobeya will be sending a really nice fruit basket to Hiradoumi after the tournament.  On successive days he lost to 5-8 Oshoumi [who probably stays in Makuuchi] and 3-11 Oshoma, who will at least pad his fall for next basho.