Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2014

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Day 10 (results, text-only results):

We're having another basho with plenty of sanyaku slots opening up due to Myogiryu's absence and the underperforming komusubi duo. Takekaze is mostly done with his joi opponents, only facing Hakuho tomorrow and Goeido on senshuraku, so at least the 7 wins required to remain as komusubi should be in reach.

The list of promotion candidates is even greater than it was two months ago; no less than 11 of the top 15 maegashira have records between 6-4 and 4-6, with nobody a really strong contender.

(x) kyujo Myogiryu S Takekaze 5-5

3-7 Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu 1-9 (x)

3-7 Terunofuji M1

4-6 Takayasu M2

5-5 Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze 6-4

5-5 Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi 4-6

4-6 Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi 6-4

7-3 Aminishiki M6 Kaisei 4-6 (x)

(x) 4-6 Shohozan M7 Chiyootori 6-4

6-4 Tochiozan M8

M9

9-1 Ichinojo M10

The lower maegashira ranks also present no shortage of potential demotions this basho, led by kyujo Homasho and Azumaryu. Those absences mean that some other rikishi might get lucky, although it probably won't be Tokitenku who's already makekoshi at the bottom rank after today. Nevertheless I'll only ? him instead of x'ing him for now. Sadanofuji has looked quite ungenki to me and he's probably the most likely rikishi to join Tokitenku on the way down.

The two guaranteed slots have already been claimed by Tokushoryu (KK yesterday) and Tochinoshin, which simplifies things a lot for the final five days. Amuru and Homarefuji are in a good position to secure a trip to makuuchi as well, while everybody else probably has too much to do - at least by the numbers. It remains to be seen if there's room for a lucky promotion or two. Satoyama (coming off 4 straight MK) is also in the running, though from his low rank he might need 13 wins to merit consideration.

M8 Arawashi 3-7 (1)

(1) 3-7 Tamawashi M9 Tochinowaka 3-7 (1)

M10

(2) 3-7 Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa 4-6 (1)

M12 Sadanofuji 3-7 (3)

(x) kyujo Homasho M13 Sokokurai 6-4 (o)

(o) 7-3 Kyokutenho M14 Azumaryu kyujo (x)

(2) 5-5 Kyokushuho M15

(?) 2-8 Tokitenku M16 Kagamio 5-5 (3)

(o) 9-1 Tokushoryu J1 Amuru 6-4 (2)

(2) 7-3 Homarefuji J2 Sotairyu 5-5 (4)

(5) 4-6 Shotenro J3 Gagamaru 4-6 (5)

(5) 5-5 Tosayutaka J4

J5 Tochinoshin 10-0 (o)

...

J9 Satoyama 9-1 (3)

J10 Seiro 7-3 (x)

Oddly enough they've already matched up Tokushoryu and Tochinoshin for tomorrow, the two rikishi I'd have considered the most likely to decide the yusho race. Satoyama-Amuru is also an intriguing matchup, while Homarefuji-Seiro will see the elimination of one of the two remaining sort-of-pursuers of the leading trio.

All in all the juryo hoshitori is quite bottom-heavy this basho, with no less than 20 (!) rikishi having records between 5-5 and 3-7. (That's tied for the all-time record in this admittedly trivial category.) Still time for the KK/MK split to become more balanced, of course, but any kachikoshi could end up quite valuable this basho.

Consequently almost half the juryo division is under threat of demotion to makushita right now. 7 rikishi need to win more than half their remaining bouts, although Chiyonokuni definitely won't manage that after his injury withdrawal. Sakigake is on a 5-bout losing streak.

Nobody is guaranteed a juryo promotion yet, but Iwasaki's 5-0 start puts him at #4 in the promotion queue at minimum, which ought to be good enough. Beyond that it's a wide-open race. Tatsu already had his 6th bout in juryo today, but wasn't able to win and missed out on the kachikoshi for now.

(o) 4-6 Tamaasuka J6 Fujiazuma 3-7 (1)

J7 Masunoyama 1-3-6 (3)

(2) 3-7 Tokushinho J8 Chiyoo 5-5 (o)

(1) 4-6 Daieisho J9

(3) 3-7 Sakigake J10

(o) 6-4 Asahisho J11 Yoshiazuma 3-7 (3)

(2) 5-5 Daido J12 Kitaharima 5-5 (2)

(2) 5-5 Akiseyama J13 Chiyonokuni 3-5-2 (x)

(4) 4-6 Kyokutaisei J14 Wakakoyu 5-5 (3)

2-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 3-2

2-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 5-0

3-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 3-3

3-2 Kawabata Ms4 Horyuyama 2-3

(x) 1-4 Higonojo Ms5 Wakanoshima 2-3

Ms6

Ms7 Kizenryu 5-0

As usual the rikishi in the makushita top 5 will already be active on the first day of the next two-day cycle. Tenkaiho has a big bout against Kyokutaisei up in juryo, while Dewahayate-Horyuyama will see one contender eliminated and Kotoeko-Tochihiryu will give us another strong candidate for promotion.

Edited September 26, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,224]

As mentioned above the juryo yusho race is quite thin this basho with Tochinoshin, Tokushoryu and Satoyama well ahead of the rest, and as they're already blowing one of the matches between them tomorrow, this could be one of those basho where...why the heck is there no succinct English word for "Fernduell"? Anyway, I'm a bit puzzled by the early Tokushoryu-Tochinoshin matchup, but maybe I'm underestimating Satoyama and it does make sense to delay his matchups with the two higher-ranked contenders.

These are the 5-0 contenders in the lower divisions (Day 9/10 results and links to video where available):

Ms2w Iwasaki (Kise)

Ms7w Kizenryu (Kise)

Ms42e Abiko (Oitekaze)

Ms46e Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe)

---

Sd1e Hitachigo (Fujishima)

Sd17e Nankairiki (Kise)

Sd29w Shiba (Kise)

Sd54w Takagi (Kise)

Sd78w Ugonoumi (Minezaki)

Sd87w Omori (Irumagawa)

---

Jd13e Hamaguchi (Kise)

Jd17w Fujihara (Michinoku)

Jd40e Ishii (Chiganoura)

Jd64e Takashinryu (Takanohana)

Jd78e Tochisato (Kasugano)

Jd93w Kaminoyama (Nishikido)

---

Jk14e Yoshimura (Dewanoumi)

Jk17w Ryuden (Takadagawa)

I don't know about you, but I'm rooting for 6-1 playoffs in both makushita and sandanme. ;-) A severe overload of Kise rikishi in those two divisions has opened up the possibility of some major scheduling oddities, starting with tomorrow's pair of 5-0 matchups between single-digit rankers and opponents from outside the top 40. Shiba and Takagi in sandanme will also receive opponents that are ranked lower than usual for this stage of the tournament. I haven't watched nearly enough lower-division action this basho to make even halfway credible yusho predictions here, except that Ryuden won't be stopped and that Hamaguchi should be the favourite in jonidan.

[Gurowake 4,150]

There has not been a 6-1 Sandanme playoff since the division has been fixed to 200 rikishi, but there were ones when the division had 159 (2 not participating), 158 (11 not participating), and 188 (12 not participating). 6 of the 200 from this basho are not participating. There could reasonably be up to 14 Sandanme rikishi at 6-1 this basho.

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Day 11 (results, text-only results):

Aoiyama convincingly beat Jokoryu today, so the komusubi is now makekoshi. I suppose it's possibly for him to survive at the rank with 7 wins, though that's probably more theoretical than anything with four days to go. The other komusubi even dropped out of the basho (giving Endo the free win), and if Tochiozan's demotion last time is an indication Chiyotairyu could find himself all the way down in the double-digit ranks in November. Takekaze also lost, making him 0-18 on the trot against Hakuho.

Terunofuji staved off the looming makekoshi by beating Kaisei, and Takayasu (against Takarafuji) and Aminishiki (against Yoshikaze) had crucial wins against fellow contenders. Last not least Ichinojo won a quick one over ozeki Kisenosato to stay in the race for both the yusho and a sanyaku debut.

(x) kyujo Myogiryu S Takekaze 5-6

(?) 3-8 Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu 1-10 (x)

4-7 Terunofuji M1

5-6 Takayasu M2

6-5 Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze 6-5

5-6 Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi 4-7

5-6 Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi 7-4

8-3 Aminishiki M6

M7 Chiyootori 7-4

7-4 Tochiozan M8

M9

10-1 Ichinojo M10

Things are getting dangerous indeed for Sadanofuji and Kagamio who now need to win 3 out of 4 after losing today. Their winning opponents Tamawashi and Tochinowaka reached safe shores, however. In juryo the top match of the day resulted in a strong Tochinoshin victory over pursuer Tokushoryu, and with Satoyama also losing to Amuru it's a two-win lead for the Georgian. Amuru and Homarefuji (beating Seiro) are likely headed to makuuchi for the next tournament, everybody else that's still on the bubble only has an outside shot now.

M8 Arawashi 3-8 (1)

(o) 4-7 Tamawashi M9 Tochinowaka 4-7 (o)

M10

(2) 3-8 Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa 4-7 (1)

M12 Sadanofuji 3-8 (3)

(x) kyujo Homasho M13

M14 Azumaryu kyujo (x)

(2) 5-6 Kyokushuho M15

(?) 3-8 Tokitenku M16 Kagamio 5-6 (3)

(o) 9-2 Tokushoryu J1 Amuru 7-4 (1)

(1) 8-3 Homarefuji J2 Sotairyu 5-6 (4)

(4) 5-6 Shotenro J3 Gagamaru 4-7 (x)

(x) 5-6 Tosayutaka J4

J5 Tochinoshin 11-0 (o)

...

J9 Satoyama 9-2 (3)

Sadanofuji's survival chances aren't getting any better, he has to contend with high-ranked maegashira Aoiyama tomorrow. Kagamio goes against Homarefuji who could clinch his makuuchi return.

With Masunoyama's second withdrawal we're now assured of two open slots in juryo, and the J14 duo looks likely to vacate their places as well - Wakakoyu was beaten by Kitaharima in an important bout, and Kyokutaisei fell to top-ranked makushita Tenkaiho to find himself one loss away from demotion. Akiseyama, Sakigake and Yoshiazuma (with the Masunoyama walkover) were victorious and improved their positions considerably, so all rikishi above the bottom rank can save themselves with just 2 wins now.

Kotoeko is our second kachikoshi rikishi in the makushita promotion zone, beating Tochihiryu. The latter is now 3-3, and so are Tenkaiho, Dewahayate and Wakanoshima (with wins) and Kawabata (with a loss). Horyuyama drops out of the race with his loss to Dewahayate, and so does Kizenryu whose zensho hopes were dashed.

J6 Fujiazuma 4-7 (o)

J7 Masunoyama 1-4-6 (x)

(2) 3-8 Tokushinho J8

(1) 4-7 Daieisho J9

(2) 4-7 Sakigake J10

J11 Yoshiazuma 4-7 (2)

(1) 6-5 Daido J12 Kitaharima 6-5 (1)

(1) 6-5 Akiseyama J13 Chiyonokuni 3-5-3 (x)

(4) 4-7 Kyokutaisei J14 Wakakoyu 5-6 (3)

3-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 3-3

3-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 5-1

4-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 3-3

3-3 Kawabata Ms4 Horyuyama 2-4 (x)

Ms5 Wakanoshima 3-3

Ms6

Ms7 Kizenryu 5-1 (x)

Iwasaki isn't quite in juryo yet as they might prefer the two Ms1's with kachikoshi if he finishes 5-2, but with more slots likely to appear he's almost there. The rest of the race remains a free for all though. Tochihiryu gets first dibs and goes up to juryo for an early 7th bout against Wakakoyu tomorrow. Kyokutaisei and Tokushinho will meet and could both really need the win, while the winner of Daieisho-Daido will be safe altogether.

Edited September 26, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,224]

With Tochinoshin seemingly running away with the juryo yusho there's not much excitement there beyond the possibility of a zensho yusho, and the most interesting aspect might well be the schedulers' choices of who to put in his path for the final four days. Tomorrow it's Asahisho.

(Day 11 results and links to video where available)

The Kise duo in makushita saw their yusho hopes dashed, and the yusho will now be contested by low-ranked Abiko and Chiyoarashi. It'll be the first time in 4 years that a zensho decider involves two rikishi from the lower half of makushita, and the first time ever that both are ranked outside the top 40.

The two Kise deshi active in sandanme today were more successful, however, so do-beya or 6-1 playoffs remain possible.

Ms2w Iwasaki (Kise) 5-1

Ms7w Kizenryu (Kise) 5-1

Ms42e Abiko (Oitekaze) 6-0

Ms46e Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe) 6-0

---

Sd1e Hitachigo (Fujishima) 5-1

Sd17e Nankairiki (Kise) 6-0

Sd29w Shiba (Kise) 6-0

Sd54w Takagi (Kise) 5-0

Sd78w Ugonoumi (Minezaki) 5-1

Sd87w Omori (Irumagawa) 5-0

---

Jd13e Hamaguchi (Kise) 5-0

Jd17w Fujihara (Michinoku) 5-0

Jd40e Ishii (Chiganoura) 5-0

Jd64e Takashinryu (Takanohana) 5-0

Jd78e Tochisato (Kasugano) 5-1

Jd93w Kaminoyama (Nishikido) 6-0

---

Jk14e Yoshimura (Dewanoumi) 5-1

Jk17w Ryuden (Takadagawa) 6-0

[lackmaker 454]

With so little upward pressure being applied from the juryo ranks at least one poorly performing maegashira may get lucky. There seem to be too many on the brink to survive demotion on merit alone.

[Asashosakari 20,224]

The Kise duo in makushita saw their yusho hopes dashed, and the yusho will now be contested by low-ranked Abiko and Chiyoarashi. It'll be the first time in 4 years that a zensho decider involves two rikishi from the lower half of makushita, and the first time ever that both are ranked outside the top 40.

That last statement wasn't actually supported by the query I linked - I forgot that this only covers those tournaments that have bout data available. I've checked the other cases (where possible) by hand now, and it does appear to be true - previously, the lowest straight 6-0 yusho decider in makushita was fought in Hatsu 1974 between Ms40w and Ms58e. There was also a bout between Ms47w and Ms51w in Hatsu 1973, but in that case there was a third 6-0 in the high makushita ranks who faced (and lost to) a juryo opponent.

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Day 12 (results, text-only results):

Ozeki Kotoshogiku achieved kachikoshi today, dealing a critical blow to yokozuna Kakuryu's yusho hopes in the process. His fellow yokozuna Hakuho is now two wins ahead of him after beating Kisenosato, while the third yusho contender Ichinojo also got an ozeki opponent and slots in between after easily muscling Goeido out of the ring. At 6-6 and with Hakuho and a motivated Takekaze still awaiting him, Goeido should probably worry about his kachikoshi. (Then again, I guess they've established that a "Goeido KK" starts at 7 wins...)

Speaking of Takekaze, the sekiwake is also facing an uphill battle after losing to Osunaarashi, needing a 2-1 to stay in sanyaku and a 3-0 for KK. His stablemate Yoshikaze's chances of promotion are being steadily eroded, today with a defeat against Jokoryu, his third straight losing day. Terunofuji dropped out of the race altogether after losing to Toyohibiki, while Aoiyama, Ikioi and Aminishiki were all victorious and appear best-placed in the sanyaku hunt for now (besides Ichinojo, of course).

(x) kyujo Myogiryu S Takekaze 5-7

(?) 4-8 Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu 1-10-1(x)

(x) 4-8 Terunofuji M1

5-7 Takayasu M2

7-5 Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze 6-6

6-6 Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi 5-7

6-6 Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi 8-4

9-3 Aminishiki M6

M7 Chiyootori 7-5

8-4 Tochiozan M8

M9

11-1 Ichinojo M10

Takayasu and Yoshikaze are having a playoff of sorts tomorrow, with the loser definitely (Takayasu) or likely (Yoshikaze) departing the race. Osunaarashi's kachikoshi hopes rest on beating Kisenosato, and Ikioi has drawn a tough assignment as well in Kotoshogiku. (On the other hand, ozeki on the day after clinching kachikoshi...) Also of note: Aminishiki has been scheduled as stopper for low-ranked Okinoumi (M15w 10-2). And last not least, there's the highly anticipated musubi no ichiban between Kakuryu and Ichinojo.

The low maegashira ranks were characterized by near all-around failure to win today, even the only winner Arawashi had to rely on a sashi-chigae decision after originally being declared the loser against Sokokurai. Sadanofuji and Kagamio are now on the brink of demotion, while Tokitenku is already the proverbial one step ahead of them. On the other side of the divisional chasm we're up to 4 promotions now, with Homarefuji beating Kagamio in their exchange bout and Amuru reaching kachikoshi. Sotairyu and Shotenro lost and would need some luck in addition to three straight wins now, while Satoyama's unfortunate injury from his Day 11 bout has taken him out of the basho (and yusho race) completely.

Speaking of which, the yusho is just about decided as Tochinoshin marched on to 12-0 and Tokushoryu fell three wins back with a henka loss against Seiro.

M8 Arawashi 4-8 (o)

M9

M10

(2) 3-9 Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa 4-8 (1)

M12 Sadanofuji 3-9 (3)

(x) kyujo Homasho M13

M14 Azumaryu kyujo (x)

(2) 5-7 Kyokushuho M15

(x) 3-9 Tokitenku M16 Kagamio 5-7 (3)

(o) 9-3 Tokushoryu J1 Amuru 8-4 (o)

(o) 9-3 Homarefuji J2 Sotairyu 5-7 (x)

(x) 5-7 Shotenro J3

J4

J5 Tochinoshin 12-0 (o)

...

J9 Satoyama 9-3 (x)

I'm not sure I've ever seen all the promotion decisions settled already after 12 days... Technically I shouldn't be marking 4 juryo rikishi as (o) yet as there are only 3 open slots so far, but it's not like all the teetering maegashira will save themselves. (In the event that a lot more slots open up, I'll add the possible lucky promotees back in after Day 14, but as it stands they all need to go 3-0, so there's not much point in dragging them along.)

The lack of suspense on the juryo side is also evidenced in tomorrow's torikumi, where they have elected to send makekoshi Gagamaru up to makuuchi to serve as filler against already-demoted Tokitenku, rather than schedule a more traditional exchange bout. The most notable bout in maegashiraland is probably Chiyomaru-Kyokushuho, the loser of which will need to win both remaining bouts.

For Tochinoshin they're getting a bit desperate in finding opponents now, and I guess they figured "let's just take the biggest guy available", so it's 6-6 Akiseyama for tomorrow, who probably won't appreciate being thrown to the Georgian wolves while he's still trying to secure his continued presence in juryo. There are only two rikishi better than 6-6 that Tochinoshin hasn't faced yet, Seiro and Daido, so those might be his final two opponents. Alternatively they could do what they did with Homasho half a year ago and schedule him against a motivated 7-7 opponent for senshuraku. (Ironically, Daido could still fall to 7-7 and become exactly that opponent, the same role he already filled - successfully - against Homasho.)

Down in the nether regions of juryo we've probably found our third demotee now with Kyokutaisei who lost to Tokushinho. The other J14 Wakakoyu was beaten by makushita visitor Tochihiryu and also looks unlikely to survive. Yoshiazuma and Akiseyama were unsuccessful as well and will have some tense final three days, while Daido won the safety playoff against Daieisho.

J7 Masunoyama 1-4-7 (x)

(1) 4-8 Tokushinho J8

(1) 4-8 Daieisho J9

(1) 5-7 Sakigake J10

J11 Yoshiazuma 4-8 (2)

(o) 7-5 Daido J12 Kitaharima 6-6 (1)

(1) 6-6 Akiseyama J13 Chiyonokuni 3-5-4 (x)

(?) 4-8 Kyokutaisei J14 Wakakoyu 5-7 (3)

3-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 4-3 (o)

3-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 5-1 (o)

4-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 3-3

3-3 Kawabata Ms4

Ms5 Wakanoshima 3-3

Tochihiryu and Iwasaki will both finish 3rd or better in the promotion queue, so they're assured of going up now. Tenkaiho and Kotoeko have a chance to follow them tomorrow, facing Yoshiazuma and Wakakoyu in juryo. It looks like Kawabata and Wakanoshima will be staying in makushita for their last bout, so it's only Dewahayate/Tatsu on the exchange slate for Day 14 or 15.

Edited September 26, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Everything about the juryo "race" is already above, so moving right on to...

(Day 12 results and links to video where available)

Fresh high school heavyweight Ishii somewhat surprisingly lost to younger jonidan regular Takashinryu, while former top makushita Hamaguchi had the expected win to go to 6-0. In sandanme it's a triumvirate of Kise rikishi after all as Takagi dispatched Omori.

Ms42e Abiko (Oitekaze) 6-0

Ms46e Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe) 6-0

---

Sd17e Nankairiki (Kise) 6-0

Sd29w Shiba (Kise) 6-0

Sd54w Takagi (Kise) 6-0

Sd87w Omori (Irumagawa) 5-1

---

Jd13e Hamaguchi (Kise) 6-0

Jd17w Fujihara (Michinoku) 5-1

Jd40e Ishii (Chiganoura) 5-1

Jd64e Takashinryu (Takanohana) 6-0

Jd93w Kaminoyama (Nishikido) 6-0

---

Jk17w Ryuden (Takadagawa) 6-0

It'll probably end up as a straight jonidan yusho decider between Hamaguchi and Takashinryu tomorrow - Kaminoyama has been scheduled against Ryuden and I'd be stunned if Ryuden lost that. The sandanme logjam has been solved the only way possible by placing all three Kise rikishi against somewhat higher-ranked 5-1 opponents, for Nankairiki that means a trip into makushita (against Ms54e Masutoo), his first of the tournament. Shiba goes against Sd1e Hitachigo who already was Nankairiki's previous opponent, and for Takagi they have drawn small speedster Sd36w Yotsugamine. I think the most likely outcomes here are a Takagi loss and possibly one from Nankairiki, for either a Shiba-Nankairiki playoff or a direct Shiba yusho. (I'm definitely rooting for the 6-1 playoff though.)

Edited September 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Incidentally, while querying for other sandanme 6-0's who faced a makushita 5-1 as their final opponent (surprise, it last happened less than a year ago), the DB highlighted an unexpected gem: an even more convoluted three-rikishi-from-the-same-stable mess in sandanme.

Back in Natsu 1977, the list of 4-0 sandanme rikishi looked like this:

Sd6w Warabigawa (Kataonami)

Sd8e Kengo (Isegahama)

Sd10w Terukiyama (Isegahama)

Sd19e Tobishima (Isegahama)

Sd35w Chiba (Mihogaseki)

Sd43w Takanofuji (Izutsu)

Sd51w Takanomori (Miyagino)

Sd64w Takahashiyama (Hanakago)

Sd66e Kotoedo (Sadogatake)

Sd76e Kimigamine (Kimigahama)

The top and bottom rikishi were knocked off by their makushita and jonidan opponents in the next round, leaving just the other 8 - with all three Isegahama rikishi winning, joined by Kotoedo. So unlike this basho where they at least had three 5-0 opponents available for a fairly normal schedule for the Kise trio, they already had to go wacky in the 6th round back then. Kengo and Terukiyama as the highest-ranked two received 4-1 makushita opponents, Tobishima went against Kotoedo. Again all three won, so they ended up with all three sandanme 6-0's located in a tiny 12-rank region. Needless to say all three were sent up into makushita for their 7th bout, Terukiyama and Tobishima beat their 5-1 opponents to set up a playoff, while Kengo lost. (I wonder if there has ever been a same-stable tomoesen?)

[Gurowake 4,150]

I was definitely amused by the Tokitenku-Gagamaru match scheduled. It's basically a Juryo bout that gets to be called a Makuuchi bout for the time being.

Is that number (2) for Akiseyama correct? He only needs one win for a 7-8 which should be enough to keep him in Juryo unless the by-the-numbers approach gets modified down there for some reason.

Ishii's loss was pretty stunning, especially considering the way he lost. It wasn't just some stupid fluke, he got engaged in a mawashi battle and he lost straight up. He maybe just has never actually done such a battle before, preferring to just push his opponents out, and once his opponent got too close to be pushed he didn't know how to deal with it.

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Is that number (2) for Akiseyama correct? He only needs one win for a 7-8 which should be enough to keep him in Juryo unless the by-the-numbers approach gets modified down there for some reason.

No, that's very wrong, thanks for catching that. Looks like I've had that error in since I set up the listings (which I do after Day 8) - he was 5-3 there but I marked him as needing 3 wins. Odd. I'm going to fix that in the above posts now.

[Kintamayama 47,183]

All lower division yusho have been decided today:

Juryo-Tochinoshin

Makushita- Abiko, the Japanese monster

Sandanme- Takagi

Jonokuchi- Hamaguchi (back from injury)

Jonidan- Ryuuden (ex-Juryo, back from injury)

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Heh, so much for my assumptions about the sandanme outcome.

(Day 13 results and links to video where available: 6-0 bouts, 6-0 vs 5-1 bouts)

Ms42e Abiko (Oitekaze) 7-0

Ms46e Chiyoarashi (Kokonoe) 6-1

---

Sd17e Nankairiki (Kise) 6-1

Sd29w Shiba (Kise) 6-1

Sd54w Takagi (Kise) 7-0

---

Jd13e Hamaguchi (Kise) 7-0

Jd64e Takashinryu (Takanohana) 6-1

Jd93w Kaminoyama (Nishikido) 6-1

---

Jk17w Ryuden (Takadagawa) 7-0

Shame about that Takagi win, so close to making history... No, seriously, congrats to all yusho winners!

[lackmaker 454]

With Chiyomaru,Kyokushuho and Sadanofuji all desperate for a win there seems a big disparity in there matches tomorrow. The first gets a juryo opponent with little incentive while the other two are facing guys ranked much higher than themselves. Any reason?

[Asashosakari 20,224]

With Chiyomaru,Kyokushuho and Sadanofuji all desperate for a win there seems a big disparity in there matches tomorrow. The first gets a juryo opponent with little incentive while the other two are facing guys ranked much higher than themselves. Any reason?

The rank differences in the Kyokushuho and Sadanofuji aren't unusual at this stage of the tournament (see also Tochinowaka's and Kyokutenho's bouts), as they try to match more by record than by position, and it's sometimes hard to find opponents with comparable records who haven't faced each other yet. Chiyomaru does stick out a bit, though I wouldn't say that Amuru has no reason to be motivated - more wins are always a good idea if you're getting promoted into makuuchi since you don't want to end up at the very bottom of the division where even a 7-8 might send you straight back to juryo.

[Asashosakari 20,224]

Day 13 (results, text-only results):

Ozeki Kisenosato finally achieved his KK in this (for him) difficult basho, sending Osunaarashi to makekoshi. Goeido also moved one step to closer to avoiding kadoban status with a victory over yusho frontrunner Hakuho - who's now no longer the sole leader as phenom Ichinojo beat the other active yokozuna Kakuryu to catch up at 11-1.

Jokoryu's 9th loss (against Takarafuji) leaves no doubt that we're looking for at least three new sanyaku inhabitants. Takekaze is hanging in there with a win over Toyohibiki and could still end up anywhere between sekiwake and maegashira. The highest-ranked sanyaku contenders Takayasu and Aoiyama improved their positions by beating their direct competitors Yoshikaze and Chiyootori. Ikioi succeeded against ozeki Kotoshogiku, while Aminishiki took Okinoumi out of the yusho race.

Toyohibiki and Chiyootori can still reach kachikoshi, but they won't make it to sanyaku as there are now definitely four other rikishi ahead of them.

(x) kyujo Myogiryu S Takekaze 6-7

(x) 4-9 Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu 1-10-2(x)

M1

6-7 Takayasu M2

8-5 Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze 6-7

7-6 Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi 5-8 (x)

(x) 6-7 Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi 9-4

10-3 Aminishiki M6

M7 Chiyootori 7-6 (x)

9-4 Tochiozan M8

M9

12-1 Ichinojo M10

Kagamio is now makekoshi and probably looking at a return to juryo, while Takanoiwa is safe after beating Shohozan. Sadanofuji stays alive for now with a win over Arawashi. Kyokushuho won the head-to-head matchup against Chiyomaru, which has left the big Kokonoe youngster with a need to win both remaining bouts.

(2) 3-10 Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa 5-8 (o)

M12 Sadanofuji 4-9 (2)

(x) kyujo Homasho M13

M14 Azumaryu kyujo (x)

(1) 6-7 Kyokushuho M15

(x) 4-9 Tokitenku M16 Kagamio 5-8 (?)

(o) 10-3 Tokushoryu J1 Amuru 8-5 (o)

(o) 9-4 Homarefuji J2

J3

J4

J5 Tochinoshin 13-0 (o)

Tochinoshin's zensho march moves into makuuchi tomorrow as he is set against overperforming maegashira Okinoumi. Chiyomaru's survival hinges on an exchange bout against Amuru as mentioned above, while Sadanofuji has been scheduled against Toyonoshima.

The situation in low juryo cleared up a lot today with Daieisho, Sakigake and Kitaharima all picking up their last needed win. Tokushinho and Akiseyama weren't that fortunate, however. The day's two crossover bouts both saw the makushita visitor win, ensuring a juryo return for Tenkaiho and a debut for Kotoeko. The latter's victory also resulted in former komusubi Wakakoyu's retirement at just 30 years of age today. Tenkaiho's opponent Yoshiazuma finds himself needing to win back-to-back now.

Down in makushita it was an unhappy end to the basho for collegiate tsukedashi starter Kawabata who wasn't able to complete his 4th straight kachikoshi.

J7 Masunoyama 1-4-8 (x)

(1) 4-9 Tokushinho J8

(o) 5-8 Daieisho J9

(o) 6-7 Sakigake J10

J11 Yoshiazuma 4-9 (2)

J12 Kitaharima 7-6 (o)

(1) 6-7 Akiseyama J13 Chiyonokuni 3-5-5 (x)

(x) 4-9 Kyokutaisei J14 Wakakoyu 5-8 (i)

(o) 4-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 4-3 (o)

3-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 5-1 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 3-3

(x) 3-4 Kawabata Ms4

Ms5 Wakanoshima 3-3

Wakakoyu's exclusion from the final two torikumi has allowed the committee to split up Dewahayate and Tatsu, and it's Dewahayate who gets the first call against Yoshiazuma tomorrow. Tatsu might get the same assignment on Day 15 if Yoshiazuma survives that one, although Yoshiazuma can also still face Tokushinho and Akiseyama if need be.

[Gurowake 4,150]

Looking at who they might possibly put against the sanyaku contenders for Day 15, I'm struck at the complete lack of opponents available for Ikioi other than Kisenosato as he's already faced everyone with a possible shot at sanyaku. It seems perfectly reasonable to think that they're going to break Kisenosato vs. Kotoshogiku in order to get Ichinojo vs. Kotoshogiku, and that conveniently gives Ikioi a real opponent.

I also would guess at Aminishiki vs. Aoiyama and Tochiozan vs. one of (Takayasu, Takarafuji, Yoshikaze). All those three have already faced each other as well as the remaining Komusubi, so I'm not sure what they're going to do with the other two. I guess there's Toyohibiki and Kaisei still potentially KK, and both have faced Takarafuji, so I'm thinking Takarafuji vs. Tochiozan, and whatever with the other 4 mentioned.

[Kintamayama 47,183]

With Chiyomaru,Kyokushuho and Sadanofuji all desperate for a win there seems a big disparity in there matches tomorrow. The first gets a juryo opponent with little incentive while the other two are facing guys ranked much higher than themselves. Any reason?

I wouldn't say that Amuru has no reason to be motivated - more wins are always a good idea if you're getting promoted into makuuchi since you don't want to end up at the very bottom of the division where even a 7-8 might send you straight back to juryo.

And with Kagamiou who has the Kitazakura karma gets somehow lucky and there will only be three demotions, Amuuru needs that 9th win badly. 8 won't cut it. But Kagamiou is down this time for sure so forget I was here.

[shimodahito 336]

Ryuden: one of Kofuji's adopted rikishi (his good deeds to this forum and the sumo fan diaspora live on) -- hats off and glasses raised!

[HenryK 38]

If Ichinojo wins the basho, his promotion to Sekiwake is pretty much a done deal - right?

[Gurowake 4,150]

Well, it's possible the winner will only have 13 victories, and that would not be enough by-the-numbers for Ichinojo to make Sekiwake if any two of Takekaze, Aminishiki, Ikioi and Aoiyama win their remaining two matches. If Ichinojo goes 14-1, only Aminishiki could be potentially promoted further than him, but he probably wouldn't be given a new Sekiwake slot in the case Takekaze maintains his space as well. Ichinojo 14-1 vs. Aminishiki 12-3 from 4 ranks higher is actually a toss-up, and they went with the lower rank for the Aki Banzuke (Chiyotairyu over Terunofuji), so maybe it would be enough. It's impossible to say.

Also, it's amusing to see that back on day 5, Aminishiki was 2-3 with losses to Arawashi and Tamawashi. You probably could have gotten really good odds that he wouldn't end up with 10 wins.

Edited September 27, 2014 by Gurowake

[HenryK 38]

Well, it's possible the winner will only have 13 victories, and that would not be enough by-the-numbers for Ichinojo to make Sekiwake if any two of Takekaze, Aminishiki, Ikioi and Aoiyama win their remaining two matches. If Ichinojo goes 14-1, only Aminishiki could be potentially promoted further than him, but he probably wouldn't be given a new Sekiwake slot in the case Takekaze maintains his space as well. Ichinojo 14-1 vs. Aminishiki 12-3 from 4 ranks higher is actually a toss-up, and they went with the lower rank for the Aki Banzuke (Chiyotairyu over Terunofuji), so maybe it would be enough. It's impossible to say.

Also, it's amusing to see that back on day 5, Aminishiki was 2-3 with losses to Arawashi and Tamawashi. You probably could have gotten really good odds that he wouldn't end up with 10 wins.

Well, that's my question: would an Ichinojo yusho overturn the normal numbers game, and if so to what extent. I understand in the past it was standard practice to promote a lower-ranked maegashira who wins a basho at least to komusubi, even if it mean having a K2 category. But more recently this has not been the case (see Kyokutenho).

[Gurowake 4,150]

They are now extremely reluctant to increase the number of junior sanyaku slots beyond the minimum. Here is all the 2 line of such slots since 2001. Extra sekiwake slots are caused by either 11 wins at Komusubi or demotion of an Ozeki. Extra Komusubi slots haven't been made since 2006, when it took a 10-5 from M1 and a 11-4 from m3, both promoting to "-4". From m10 a 14-1 would promote to "-3" and might not be considered enough for the creation of an extra slot.

As to whether the Yusho would mean anything regarding his banzuke placement outside of Ozeki or Yokozuna consideration, probably not. It certainly didn't help Tochinoshin, and while that was Juryo, as you note it didn't help Kyokutenho when he certainly was a viable candidate with theoretical promotion to "-2" with a 12-3 at m7.

[Gurowake 4,150]

Looking at who they might possibly put against the sanyaku contenders for Day 15, I'm struck at the complete lack of opponents available for Ikioi other than Kisenosato as he's already faced everyone with a possible shot at sanyaku. It seems perfectly reasonable to think that they're going to break Kisenosato vs. Kotoshogiku in order to get Ichinojo vs. Kotoshogiku, and that conveniently gives Ikioi a real opponent.

I also would guess at Aminishiki vs. Aoiyama and Tochiozan vs. one of (Takayasu, Takarafuji, Yoshikaze). All those three have already faced each other as well as the remaining Komusubi, so I'm not sure what they're going to do with the other two. I guess there's Toyohibiki and Kaisei still potentially KK, and both have faced Takarafuji, so I'm thinking Takarafuji vs. Tochiozan, and whatever with the other 4 mentioned.

Well, at least I got Tochiozan vs. Takarafuji right. They went with the regular sanyaku Day 15 schedule and put Ikioi against Okinoumi.

Asashosakari will presumably have his nice chart later, but this is what I see:

S1w Takekaze 7-7. Range: S-K

M3e Aoiyama 9-5. Range: S+-K

M10e Ichinojo 12-2. Range: S-M1

M6e Aminishiki 10-4. Range: S-M1

M5w Ikioi 9-5. Range: K-M2

M2e Takayasu 7-7. Range M1-M3

M4e Takarafuji 8-6. Range: M1-M3

M8e Tochiozan 10-4. Range: M1-M3

Intersquad fights: Ichinojo vs. Aminishiki, Aoiyama vs. Takayasu, and Takarafuji vs. Tochiozan.

Aoiyama and Takekaze are guaranteed Komusubi due to the Ichinojo-Aminishiki match only possibly allowing 3 ahead of them, and will be Sekiwake with a win. If one of them loses, the winner of Ichinojo-Aminishiki will be Sekiwake, whereas if they both win the winner of the latter match will be Komusubi. If both lose, Aoiyama will probably default to Sekiwake, as he should be ahead of Ikioi even with an Ikioi win. If Ikioi does win, he will be Komusubi. If Ikioi loses, there will be a major tossup between the loser of Aminishiki-Ichinojo, the winner of Tochiozan-Takarafuji, and Takayasu if he wins. Last time the toss-up went to the rikishi with the better record, so Takarafuji and Takayasu may be out of the race completely, but last time the two candidates were both well outside the joi, whereas Takarafuji and Takayasu fought all the sanyaku that they could and thus may be favored.

Edited September 27, 2014 by Gurowake