Persistence Watch - 2013 edition

[aderechelsea 125]

Okino hurt my eyes once more. Today the bout against Sakai portrayed two rikishi with excellent migi-yotsu grips but no idea what to do with these. I don't think i ever watched anyone doing sumo and standing so upright in such an ideal grip.

I REALLY wish him the best in his final bout (i am rooting for all Hakkaku beya guys ... well ... i never rooted for Hokutoriki i think) but any rikishi with a 3-3 record will be too strong for him.

bonus points for staying on the tawara and "over-powering" Sakai in the end.

[akaikeinfo 7]

Well, Day 13 saw Kotouraga lose to Honda to remain in the persistence club.

Our other three 3-3 hopefuls are all in action on Day 14.

I think Chibahibiki will get Moriurara (of all people...) for his final bout, but the full final-round schedule seems quite messy from around Jd70 to jonokuchi so I'm not too sure I've "read" it right.

Very good, Chibahibiki did get former persister Moriurara. Now's your time, sweet Prince.

Miyamoto got Jk10e Yakabe. Yakabe's a big boy at 156 kg and will probably be just too much of an immovable object for Miyamoto.

Okino hurt my eyes once more. Today the bout against Sakai portrayed two rikishi with excellent migi-yotsu grips but no idea what to do with these. I don't think i ever watched anyone doing sumo and standing so upright in such an ideal grip.

I REALLY wish him the best in his final bout (i am rooting for all Hakkaku beya guys ... well ... i never rooted for Hokutoriki i think) but any rikishi with a 3-3 record will be too strong for him.

bonus points for staying on the tawara and "over-powering" Sakai in the end.

Okino got Jk22e Masaya (133 kg). It's hard to see Okino winning unless Masaya makes a really dumb mistake.

I think Chiba's getting out of the club today!

Edited May 24, 2013 by akaikeinfo

[akaikeinfo 7]

I let myself get sucked into the Quest for First Kachi-Koshi.

Okino vs Masaya: Ugh, Okino. Masaya's green as grass and there for the taking, but Okino's lack of athleticism and cluelessness on what to do with a belt grip keeps him in the persistence club. At least 3-4 is his best career basho after getting the weakest of the shin-deshi lot after his 0-7 last time.

Miyamoto vs Yakabe: Yakabe has a huge weight advantage and easily pushes the skinny Miyamoto out of the ring.

Chibahibiki vs Moriurara: Almost as highly anticipated as Hakuho vs Kisenosato! Poor Moriurara. Mr. Persistence himself has both of his knees taped and both elbows heavily bandaged and he limped onto the dohyo clearly not at even his modest 100%. Our "Prince of Three-Four" ended up winning pretty easily. It's Sandanme or Bust for Chiba, now that he has the KK monkey off his back. Moriurara's obviously going to be like Kasachikara and Shikinokawa and yo-yo from low Jonidan to Jonokuchi.

Some possible future persisters: Kaikoki went 0-7 after an 0-5 mae-zumo and got massacred by a Day 13 returnee. Teruju went 1-6 and also got fed to a Day 13 returnee. Both Sakai (2-5) and Terumichi (2-4, Day 15 to come) lost to Okino (as did Kaikoki). Sekizuka went 1-6 and his performance against club member Sadaisamu today was incredibly lame. Who did Sekizuka possibly beat? Oh, it was Okino back on Day 3.

The database is down so I'm not sure if there are any new members to the club, reaching their third MK in the current basho.

[krindel 688]

Sekizuka went 1-6 and his performance against club member Sadaisamu today was incredibly lame. Who did Sekizuka possibly beat? Oh, it was Okino back on Day 3.

One thing I always find incredibly sad is seeing kids on the dohyo who are so obviously scared of contact... It almost feels like someone / something forced them to join. That looked more like schoolyard bullying and less like a contact sports bout. :(

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Final standings for Natsu 2013, without much comment since akaikeinfo already provided excellent running commentary. (Nodding yes...)

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho	This Basho
Azumayama	Tamanoi	Natsu 2010	17	Jonidan 98 West	Jonidan 93	26-93	0.218	1-6	2-5
Chibahibiki	Shikihide	Natsu 2011	11	Jonidan 84 East	Jonidan 84	35-49	0.417	3-4	4-3
Okino	Hakkaku	Natsu 2011	12	Jonokuchi 24 East	Jonokuchi 2	12-72	0.143	0-7	3-4
Miyakojima	Minezaki	Hatsu 2012	8	Jonidan 97 West	Jonidan 97	14-42	0.250	2-5	1-6
Rikiyushi	Minezaki	Haru 2012	7	Jonidan 88 East	Jonidan 88	12-37	0.245	3-4	0-7
Kotouruga	Sadogatake	Haru 2012	7	Jonidan 89 West	Jonidan 89	16-33	0.327	3-4	3-4
Sadaisamu	Sakaigawa	Natsu 2012	6	Jonokuchi 4 East	Jonidan 91	9-34	0.209	0-7	2-5
Miyamoto	Naruto	Aki 2012	4	Jonokuchi 1 East	Jonokuchi 1	6-22	0.214	1-6	3-4

Miyamoto equalled his win total from the previous three tournaments this month. Kotouruga will probably hang on to a jonidan ranking for July (and becomes the next best hope for KK after back-to-back 3-4's), everybody else should be back in their more familiar jonokuchi surroundings. Except Chibahibiki, of course - he's hopefully going onwards and upwards now. Okino will likely come to rue getting exactly three wins, being next ranked in the vicinity of all the shindeshi who went 3-4 this basho (still an okay-ish bunch, I would say) the 0-4 start into Nagoya can probably be pencilled in already...

No newcomers this time around indeed, the only shindeshi three basho ago was Sato who's already in high jonidan now. Three candidates next tournament, my guess being for two new inductees after that (Nishihata and Ogata, with Morimune narrowly escaping our clutches). Of the 38-strong Haru shindeshi crowd 22 achieved KK to remove themselves from future consideration early.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Lineup for Nagoya 2013:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho
Azumayama	Tamanoi	Natsu 2010	17	Jonokuchi 8 West	Jonidan 93	26-93	0.218	2-5
Okino	Hakkaku	Natsu 2011	12	Jonokuchi 10 West	Jonokuchi 2	12-72	0.143	3-4
Miyakojima	Minezaki	Hatsu 2012	8	Jonokuchi 12 East	Jonidan 97	14-42	0.250	1-6
Kotouruga	Sadogatake	Haru 2012	7	Jonidan 93 West	Jonidan 89	16-33	0.327	3-4
Rikiyushi	Minezaki	Haru 2012	7	Jonokuchi 17 West	Jonidan 88	12-37	0.245	0-7
Sadaisamu	Sakaigawa	Natsu 2012	6	Jonokuchi 11 East	Jonidan 91	9-34	0.209	2-5
Miyamoto	Naruto	Aki 2012	4	Jonokuchi 2 West	Jonokuchi 1	6-22	0.214	3-4

I've got absolutely no expectations for this basho, so any positive result will be a pleasant surprise.

If you're into "prospect" watching, our three candidates for the basho are Ogata, Morimune and the freshly renamed Takaseiryu.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Day 8:

Much better than last basho, and there's even a strong shot at KK in there:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho	This Basho
Azumayama	Tamanoi	Natsu 2010	18	Jonokuchi 8 West	Jonidan 93	26-97	0.211	2-5	0-4
Okino	Hakkaku	Natsu 2011	12	Jonokuchi 10 West	Jonokuchi 2	14-74	0.159	3-4	2-2
Miyakojima	Minezaki	Hatsu 2012	8	Jonokuchi 12 East	Jonidan 97	16-44	0.267	1-6	2-2
Kotouruga	Sadogatake	Haru 2012	7	Jonidan 93 West	Jonidan 89	19-34	0.358	3-4	3-1
Rikiyushi	Minezaki	Haru 2012	7	Jonokuchi 17 West	Jonidan 88	14-39	0.264	0-7	2-2
Sadaisamu	Sakaigawa	Natsu 2012	6	Jonokuchi 11 East	Jonidan 91	10-37	0.213	2-5	1-3
Miyamoto	Naruto	Aki 2012	4	Jonokuchi 2 West	Jonokuchi 1	7-25	0.219	3-4	1-3

Kotouruga's career winning percentage is well ahead of everybody else so it's not a huge surprise to find him as the main KK contender this basho. Okino on the other hand didn't start 0-4 as I predicted, but he's been rather lucky in the scheduling department as two of his bouts were against hapless club fellows Sadaisamu and Azumayama (though he lost the one against Sadaisamu anyway).

And the first "successful" applicant has turned up as well:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	2013.03	2013.05	2013.07
Ogata	Kasugano	Hatsu 2013	3	Jonidan 96 East	Jonidan 96	6-12	0.333	3-4	3-4	0-4

The persistence-clinching loss came at the hands of incumbent Miyamoto today.

[akaikeinfo 7]

Clash of the titans today: Okino vs Miyakojima with the winner having two shots to get the elusive KK. By the way, Miyakojima has won all five of their previous meetings.

Also, Kotouraga is getting Jd90 Nakano as he tries to go 4-1 and graduate from the list. I think Nakano will be a little too much for him; in 7 career basho before Nagoya he's gone 3-4 six times but went 4-3 in his 3rd basho to avoid ever joining the watch and becoming Chibahibiki.

Edited July 14, 2013 by akaikeinfo

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Yup, no luck for Kotouruga in his first go at KK this basho. Okino beat the odds and Miyakojima to improve to 3-2, and so did Rikiyushi. Surely we'll get at least one KK out of these three?

In other news, the most veteran club member Azumayama faced the newest one (Ogata, see above) and greeted him as only he can, by losing to him. Sadaisamu is also makekoshi now, while Miyamoto hangs in there at 2-3 with a win (over former 14-basho persister Azumahikari).

Incidentally, the other day I noticed that non-persister Hidekaze (avoided with a 4-3 in his 3rd basho) has put together an 11-MK streak. He's absent this basho, right after adopting a new shikona no less. The arguably weakest veteran after Kasachikara's departure, Shikinokawa, is also on a 13-MK streak.

[akaikeinfo 7]

We need Okino vs Rikiyushi and then Okino vs Kotouraga to get two guys those elusive KKs.

Today we have "baseball boy" Morimune trying to get his 1st KK in his 3rd basho and avoid joining the club, with his first shot for win #4 against former long-time persister Daishiryu. Miyakojima needs two wins in a row, first against Kozakura, who KK'd his very first basho but only one time since over the past 2.5 years.

Edited July 16, 2013 by akaikeinfo

[Washuyama 662]

The arguably weakest veteran after Kasachikara's departure, Shikinokawa, is also on a 13-MK streak.

I was going to argue and say "Don't forget about Moriurara" until I looked at their head-to-head... He's only beaten Moriurara twice in seven bouts, and not since 2010.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Looks like the 3-2 matches are going to be:

Kotouruga-Ashitakayama (0-1 head to head, standard underdog status for Kotouruga I'd say)

Okino-Kotokojima (first matchup, Haru rookie who only beats persister types but nobody else...probably still too much for Okino)

Rikiyushi-Ryokizan (first matchup, upper jonidan quality guy, can't see Rikiyushi win this)

Edited July 16, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Miyakojima and Miyamoto dropped to 2-4 today and will continue to grace us with their skinny presence.

[aderechelsea 125]

Okino-Kotokojima (first matchup, Haru rookie who only beats persister types but nobody else...probably still too much for Okino)

indeed he was.

i'll say it once more ... Hakkaku beya needs to start recruiting more talent. Not just new rikishi. Sometimes i wonder what is the level of keiko that goes on there ... i am not a happy fan.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Hey, somebody needs to supply all those tsukebito needed at Kokonoe-beya. ;-) In any case, they do have Amanoshima, and from this year's new crop Kakehashi and Aoto look good to me.

And I must say conceptually I prefer a heya with a good mix of talent like Hakkaku (even if it includes some Okino types), rather than some place like Kise with its 500 interchangeable low-upside college guys.

Edited July 18, 2013 by Asashosakari

[akaikeinfo 7]

All of our 3-2 boys (Okino, Rikiyushi, Kotouraga) are now 3-3. Day 13 sees Kotouraga vs "baseball boy" Morimune in a match that will have a net zero effect on the number of members of the persistence club. If Kotouraga wins, he exits and Morimune will have his 3rd straight MK to start his career. A Morimune win means we need never mention him in this thread again.

[aderechelsea 125]

A Morimune win means we need never mention him in this thread again.

being honest i am hoping for this ...

Musashimaru's rikishi should start picking up wins after all ... (also .... Go Kiyomusashi !!!)

[krindel 688]

A Morimune win means we need never mention him in this thread again.

being honest i am hoping for this ...

Musashimaru's rikishi should start picking up wins after all ... (also .... Go Kiyomusashi !!!)

I seriously hope Musashimaru can do better than Morimune in the long run :-)

[aderechelsea 125]

i hope he can do better than all of his rikishi but i guess it is too early to be judgemental after all. But i always am sooo ...... B-)

[Fay 1,677]

aaaaah nooooo Kotouruga. Well next basho definitely!!

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Maru's Morimune may have narrowly escaped our grubby hands, but another dai-yokozuna shisho wasn't so lucky - Takanohana-beya's Takaseiryu wasn't able to avoid his third MK today. I'll post his career-to-date stats with the final update.

Along with unfortunate Kotouruga another club member has finished his basho with a 3-4 record as Miyakojima beat veteran Shikinokawa and his now 14-MK streak.

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Unfortunately it's settled as zero kachikoshi this basho - Rikiyushi and Okino weren't able to come through against Yamatonami and Kozakura, respectively. In other news Miyamoto beat fellow club member Sadaisamu. ([Kinta] Who is Sam and does anyone know why he's sad? [/Kinta]) Miyamoto finishes 3-4 for the second basho in a row, Sadaisamu ends his campaign at 2-5. Only club-gashira Azumayama has been left for the final day, in a historically appropriate matchup against former club leader Moriurara. Interestingly it's their first-ever meeting.

Edited July 20, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,223]

I think Azumayama became the first rikishi ever to be afraid of Moriurara's power today.

Final standings for Nagoya 2013:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho	This Basho
Azumayama	Tamanoi	Natsu 2010	18	Jonokuchi 8 West	Jonidan 93	27-99	0.214	2-5	1-6
Okino	Hakkaku	Natsu 2011	13	Jonokuchi 10 West	Jonokuchi 2	15-76	0.165	3-4	3-4
Miyakojima	Minezaki	Hatsu 2012	9	Jonokuchi 12 East	Jonidan 97	17-46	0.270	1-6	3-4
Kotouruga	Sadogatake	Haru 2012	8	Jonidan 93 West	Jonidan 89	19-37	0.339	3-4	3-4
Rikiyushi	Minezaki	Haru 2012	8	Jonokuchi 17 West	Jonidan 88	15-41	0.268	0-7	3-4
Sadaisamu	Sakaigawa	Natsu 2012	7	Jonokuchi 11 East	Jonidan 91	11-39	0.220	2-5	2-5
Miyamoto	Naruto	Aki 2012	5	Jonokuchi 2 West	Jonokuchi 1	9-26	0.257	3-4	3-4

Pretty decent results if we overlook the lack of any KK records, I suppose. Too bad about Kotouruga falling from 3-1 to makekoshi; it's his 3rd straight 3-4, involving 5 shots at kachikoshi. Oh, and looking at what I wrote previously: Kudos to Okino for not starting 0-4 after all, but in fact being 3-2 at one point (albeit after 0-2).

Miyakojima built a nice foundation for Aki basho - historically many rikishi have escaped persistence status in their 10th basho, which might be part destiny and part this 10th basho usually falling into the weak half of the year for the jonokuchi division (Aki to Hatsu). Kotouruga meanwhile will probably hang on to a jonidan ranking again, and Azumayama will be bracing himself for his 100th all-MK loss.

Speaking of rookies, this year's newcomers showed some interesting trends in their second basho. 7 deshi went 3-4 in their banzuke debut last basho; 5 of them achieved a KK this time in their second chance, one only fell to 3-4 in his last bout, and the other was completely absent. On the other hand, 8 rikishi were 2-5 or worse in their debut - of these 8, only 2 scored a KK this basho, and they both had an injury-shortened basho last time (actual on-dohyo performances 2-3 and 1-2), so all "real" 2-5's or worse from May had another MK now.

That's going to give us 7 persistence candidates for Aki, barring any retirements, but I'm getting a bit ahead of things here. Looking at this basho's three candidates, we find Morimune narrowly escaping as detailed above, while the following two rikishi will now be joining us for closer examination:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	2013.03	2013.05	2013.07
Takaseiryu	Takanohana	Hatsu 2013	3	Jonokuchi 8 East	Jonidan 98	7-14	0.333	2-5	2-5	3-4
Ogata	Kasugano	Hatsu 2013	3	Jonidan 96 East	Jonidan 96	8-13	0.381	3-4	3-4	2-5

Back again when the new banzuke is out. (Bye, bye...)

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Lineup for Aki basho:

Shikona	Heya	Debut	MK	Current Rank	Highest Rank	Record	Win%	Last Basho
Azumayama	Tamanoi	Natsu 2010	18	Jonokuchi 13 West	Jonidan 93	27-99	0.214	1-6
Okino	Hakkaku	Natsu 2011	13	Jonokuchi 6 West	Jonokuchi 2	15-76	0.165	3-4
Miyakojima	Minezaki	Hatsu 2012	9	Jonokuchi 7 West	Jonidan 97	17-46	0.270	3-4
Kotouruga	Sadogatake	Haru 2012	8	Jonokuchi 1 East	Jonidan 89	19-37	0.339	3-4
Rikiyushi	Minezaki	Haru 2012	8	Jonokuchi 8 West	Jonidan 88	15-41	0.268	3-4
Sadaisamu	Sakaigawa	Natsu 2012	7	Jonokuchi 10 West	Jonidan 91	11-39	0.220	2-5
Miyamoto	Naruto	Aki 2012	5	Jonokuchi 4 East	Jonokuchi 1	9-26	0.257	3-4
Takaseiryu	Takanohana	Hatsu 2013	3	Jonokuchi 4 West	Jonidan 98	7-14	0.333	3-4
Ogata	Kasugano	Hatsu 2013	3	Jonokuchi 6 East	Jonidan 96	8-13	0.381	2-5

On the back of his first 3-4 of the year Miyakojima battles against attaining dai-persistence status, while Kotouruga comes into the basho with a streak of three 3-4 records. And club-gashira Azumayama will be collecting loss #100 at some point.

Prospects for Kyushu inclusion: Katayama, Sakai, Kaikoki, Okamoto, Teruju, Sekizuka, Terumichi.

[krindel 688]

I have no idea how to even look for that in the database, so thought I'd ask here in case someone knows:

Is there a success story to give hope to members of this club? Has anyone who was eligible to be a member of this club went on to become a sekitori for example?