Juryo promotion

[Andreas21 221]

There's an interesting situation: in top Makushita (Ms1-3) there is Oniarashi at 4:2 and 4 Rikishi at 3:3 (Arawashi Takanoiwa Shironoryu Kei ) and even Ms6 Kotoyutaka at 5:1 have all chances for promotion.

But in the bottom of Juryo 11-14 there are 7 Rikishi at 6:5 are unwlling to go down.

This will be a tight finsh! There might even be more promotion candidates than free spaces above.

[Andreas21 221]

From the bottom 3 ranks only Homarefuji didn't make KK and will go down. Masakaze at J12e and Tokushinho at J11e both at 7-8 are in danger but not definitely out. Satoyama at J10e will be out with 4-11 but Masuraumi at J10w with 6-9 is only on the brink.

Not many candidates for promotion as well: Takanoiwa Oniarashi will surely go up. Kei at Ms3 4-3 may do. Kotoyutaka at Ms6 has a good 6-1 and will likely go up. Shosei and Higonojo won't as there are not so many sure demotion candidates.

My guess is there will be only 3 demotions/promotions.

[The_Arrow87 7]

I think Bushuyama (J8e 3-12) and Satoyama will get demoted. For me Masakaze and Tokushinho will stay in. I also think Homarefuji has a better chance to stay in than Kei or Kotoyutaka getting promoted. So far I never saw a rikishi get demoted with 7-8 on J11 or J12, but maybe I did overlook some bashos. But did it really happen in the last bashos / years that a rikishi fell down more than two ranks with 7-8 at J11 or J12? Maybe someone could find out on sumoreference?

[Randomitsuki 2,898]

Hm, I'd guess that Bushuyama and Satoyama walk out while Oniarashi and Takanoiwa walk in.

EDIT: The Arrow was faster than me.

Edited May 21, 2012 by Randomitsuki

[Asashosakari 20,243]

I think Bushuyama (J8e 3-12) and Satoyama will get demoted. For me Masakaze and Tokushinho will stay in. I also think Homarefuji has a better chance to stay in than Kei or Kotoyutaka getting promoted. So far I never saw a rikishi get demoted with 7-8 on J11 or J12, but maybe I did overlook some bashos. But did it really happen in the last bashos / years that a rikishi fell down more than two ranks with 7-8 at J11 or J12? Maybe someone could find out on sumoreference?

Even somebody in Homarefuji's relative position hasn't been demoted in over 10 years.

[Koorifuu 1,120]

I have one doubt..

Kei's 4-3 at Ms3 was blessed with a 2-1 in juryo visits. I kinda get the feeling the theorically superior comepetition won't be a factor in promotions, but is that so?

I mean, will his positive record against juryo actually play a role on a possible promotion? On a regular case he'd probably find himself on Ms1/Ms2.

That aside, besides Satoyama and Bushuyama having dismal bashos from the bottom half of the banzuke there really isn't any other candidate for demotion. (Which doesn't really help Kei's case) and I'd guess Takanoiwa's KK at Ms1 and Oniarashi's 5-2 at Ms2 will make the cut. Pretty much like everyone else.

Edited May 21, 2012 by Koorifuu