Tigerboy1966

I may be out on a limb with WMH at 5e- Spiffy suggested this on his YT channel, pointing out that a 3.5 demotion for a 6-9 in the jo'i looked a bit harsh. Ah well, if I am right I will be very right. I posted my guess before the entries closed as I got flummoxed by DST/BST/GMT. I live in England, so there are absolutely no excuses.

My guess: Onosato Y Hoshoryu Kotozakura O Wakatakakag S Kirishima Takayasu K Aonishiki Tamawashi M1 Abi Hakuoho M2 Oho Atamifuji M3 Gonoyama Hiradoumi M4 Kotoshoho Wakamotoharu M5 Ichiyamamoto Onokatsu M6 Kusano Ura M7 Takanosho Oshoma M8 Midorifuji Fuinokawa M9 Churanoumi Kinbozan M10 Shodai Takerufuji M11 Mitakeumi Roga M12 Daieisho Meisei M13 Tokihayate Sadanoumi M14 Shonannoumi Asakoryu M15 Tobizaru Tomokaze M16 Nishikigi Ryuden M17 Hitoshi Shishi M18

Yay! I got a juryo yusho. Send the 2 million yen to my bank account: I can make my own scroll.

I think that Shishi's rank depends on what you do with Kotoeiho. If you keep Kotoeiho, he can only be in the very last spot so Shishi can stay on 17w. If you drop Kotoeiho and bring up Hitoshi you can give Shishi a demotion to 18e and slot Hitoshi in at 17w. Opinion seems to be divided on the matter.

Maybe we should have a name for a "not quite exchange match"; Elimination match Loser leaves town match Semi-exchange match Survival match Win-and-you're-in match Last chance saloon match Safety dance match Revolving door match

Hakuho Y Kashiwado Takanohana O Chiyotaikai Kaio S Kotomitsuki Kisenosato K Tochiozan Akinoshima M1 Aminishiki Kotonowaka M2 Kyokutenho Terao M3 Fujinishiki Kurohimeyama M4 Takekaze Aobajo M5 Tamakasuga Futagodake M6 Tochinoshin Takayasu M7 Tamawashi Mitoizumi M8 Aonosato Misugiiso M9 Asasekiryu Dejima M10 Dairyugawa Sadanoumi M11 Toryu Wakanoyama M12 Takamisugi Chiyomaru M13 Kiraiho Kaisei M14 Yutakayama Ishiura M15 Kasugao Wakanosato M16 Tsurugisho

He has pulled out of at least one basho injured in each of the last five calendar years. He has busted his knee, ankle and big toe so it's not surprising that he has looked a bit unsteady on his pins at times. He also injured his bicep in training earlier. this year. These aren't the kind of injuries that wreck careers, but they can certainly slow your progress.

Just checking some history... since 1958 an M17 with a 6-9 record has only survived once, and that was Nishikifuji after Nagoya '24. The best unpromoted record in juryo then was Tamashoho with 9-6 at 6w which is obviously inferior to our two J6 10-5s this time. However, Nishikifuji was at number 42 on the banzuke rather than number 40. Kotoeiho can therefore be moved down a full rank without being relegated.

If that is a mistake, I have made the same one.

You may be right. My thinking was that Kotoeiho's record was pretty damn close to being a "required demotion" and he comes out clearly behind Hitoshi. But if the rule for the J6 candidates is "both or none", then Kotoeiho might be lucky.

Shishi stays, Daiseizan is too low. And M18e will be created. Yup. Spot on. You can get promoted from J6 with 10 wins (I think HItoshi will do so this time), but not ahead of a borderline demotion case like Shishi. Daiseizan misses out by being on the wrong side of the banzuke. Looks like this banzuke won't take too much deliberation once they have decided what to do with Daieisho.

This was a real "under the radar" yusho. When an M15 starts off 3-2 you can safely cross him off any list of contenders. Kotoshoho went on a winning run thereafter but if this one was going to be taken by a maegashira wrestler, that wrestler was going to be Aonishiki, or Kusano, or Ichiyamamoto. KSH did not even appear on the "spirited rikishi" lists until day 13. Well done to him. When he first broke through I was convinced that he was a better prospect than his stablemate Kotonowaka (Kotozakura) as he was younger, faster and had better technical skills. Injuries have held him up but he is still young and his best days should be ahead of him. I think that if he had stayed healthy he would have been established at the top end of the maegashira ranks.

So, in summary: Relegated from maku'uchi: Kotoeiho, Endo, Chiyoshoma, Kayo, Hidenoumi Promoted from juro: Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Ryuden, Nishikigi and almost certainly Hitoshi The last spot in maku'uchi is a tie between Shishi and Daiseizan. I would normally expect the nod to go to the current maku'uchi wrestler, but we shall see.

Juryo promotion to maku'uchi: Already achieved: Shonannoumi, Tomokaze, Nishikigi, Ryuden Missed by one win but may be eligible: Hitoshi (43), Daiseizan (44) Which, as I see it, means that Shishi (44/48) can survive if he wins today The numbers in brackets are where they should be placed "by the numbers" with Y1e being 1, and J1e being 43.

Quick update on maku'uchi demotion queue Based on my reading of the possible results Endo, Kayo, Hidenoumi and Chiyoshoma are all definitely down. There is a mathematical chance that Kotoeiho could stay up but he would need to win (obviously) and have nine other matches to end favourably. I make that odds of around 1023-1. Shishi has a slim chance if he wins, but I gave up trying to calculate the odds, as I would have to take into account the advantage given to maku'uchi wrestlers in the event of a mathematical tie and whether previous banzuke luck would come into play. Let's just say he is up against it and leave it at that.