Promotion/Demotion and Yusho Discussion Kyushu 2025

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

This might seem a bit early, but with no return for Meisei we have at least one demotion settled:

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 7:

1 win: Abi, Kinbozan, Midorifuji, Tobizaru, Roga, Gonoyama, Tokihayate, Nishikifuji

2 wins: Shishi, Ryuden

3 wins: Miyakeumi, Chiyoshoma, Asakoryu

4 wins: Tomokaze

5 wins: Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi

6 wins: Oshoumi

Already demotable: Meisei

Edited Saturday at 11:44 by Tigerboy1966
spelling

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 7:

Already achieved: none

1 win: none

2 wins: none

3 wins: Daiseizan

4 wins: Fujiseiun

5 wins: Kotoeiho, Kagayaki, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama, Shirokuma

6 wins: Asahakuryu

7 wins: Hitoshi, Tochitaikai, Takerufuji, Fujiryoga

8 wins: Kotokuzan, Kazekeno, Tamashoho

[Reonito 1,793]

5 hours ago, Tigerboy1966 said:

This might seem a bit early

The earliest the topic has been started in my memory, but I'm here for it.

[lackmaker 458]

Ideally the yusho discussion starts the moment Onosato loses a bout.

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

It may be just stating the bleeding obvious by saying that Tomokaze isn't moving well and looks doomed to another demotion, but you have to give the man enormous respect for perseverance and sheer guts. He was the "next big thing" in 2019 and then his right leg effectively snapped at the knee. And yet he has fought his way back to become a solid "top-juryo-lower-maegashira" fixture with only one functioning leg. There are less seriously injured people who spend the rest of their lives on benefits and ride around on mobility scooters. To quote Rod Steiger in "A Fistful of Dynamite", " This man had two balls like the bull ".

[Heather82Cs 15]

Are you telling me there's a chance we get that youngster who looks like an anime character in Makuuchi so soon? I'd like to see him there for, uh, reasons.

[Bunbukuchagama 991]

40 minutes ago, Heather82Cs said:

Are you telling me there's a chance we get that youngster who looks like an anime character in Makuuchi so soon? I'd like to see him there for, uh, reasons.

The mean-mugged one? 

[Reonito 1,793]

1 hour ago, Heather82Cs said:

Are you telling me there's a chance we get that youngster who looks like an anime character in Makuuchi so soon? I'd like to see him there for, uh, reasons.

Fujiryoga? The recently retired Endo is the only guy to ever get promoted from that low a rank, but if he can run the table...

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 8:

Already achieved: none

1 win: none

2 wins: Daiseizan

3 wins:

4 wins: Fujiseiun, Kagayaki, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama

5 wins: Kotoeiho, Asahakuryu, Shirokuma

6 wins: Tochitaikai, Takerufuji, Fujiryoga

7 wins: Hitoshi, Tamashoho

Edited Sunday at 08:01 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 8:

1 win: Roga

2 wins: Shishi, Mitakeumi, Ryuden, Chiyoshoma

3 wins: Tomokaze, Asakoryu

4 wins: none

5 wins: Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi

6 wins: Oshoumi

Already demotable: Meisei

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Catching up on the lower-division yusho races...videos for round four to be added soon-ish.

Day 5/6: 63 rikishi at 3-0 (results) - 14 makushita, 19 sandanme, 25 jonidan, 5 jonokuchi

Day 7/8: 32 rikishi at 4-0 (results, videos)

Makushita (14 > 7)
3-1 Ms5w Seihakuho (Isegahama)
4-0 Ms9w Tochimusashi (Kasugano)
3-1 Ms14w Fukuzaki (Fujishima)
4-0 Ms15w Kazuma (Kise)
4-0 Ms21w Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
4-0 Ms24w Ryusho (Oitekaze)
3-1 Ms30w Mineyaiba (Shikoroyama)
3-1 Ms33e Asonoyama (Sakaigawa)
3-1 Ms38w Gyokuozan (Naruto)
4-0 Ms43e Hokutenkai (Onoe)
3-1 Ms46e Nobehara (Futagoyama)
4-0 Ms48e Shiroma (Onoe)
4-0 Ms55e Ohata (Tokitsukaze)
3-1 Ms58e Chiyonoo (Kokonoe)

Sandanme (19 > 9)
4-0 Sd1w Ieshima (Yamahibiki)
3-1 Sd8w Ikazuchido (Ikazuchi)
3-1 Sd11w Soma (Futagoyama)
4-0 Sd17w Fukai (Takasago)
4-0 Sd18w Uzumasa (Isenoumi)
3-1 Sd22e Kassho (Yamahibiki)
3-1 Sd28e Araoyama (Onomatsu)
4-0 Sd31e Kaki (Oitekaze)
3-1 Sd36e Kototsubasa (Sadogatake)
4-0 Sd40e Akitoba (Minato)
4-0 Sd44w Chiyoraizan (Kokonoe)
3-1 Sd49w Hokutosakae (Hakkaku)
3-1 Sd53w Hogasho (Tokitsukaze)
4-0 Sd55w Hakuda (Asahiyama)
4-0 Sd59e Kyokutendo (Oshima)
3-1 Sd66w Imamura (Nishonoseki)
4-0 Sd68w Yutakasho (Sakaigawa)
3-1 Sd74e Niiya (Kasugano)
3-1 Sd77e Suio (Dewanoumi)

Jonidan (25 > 12)
4-0 Jd1w Kawazoe (Isegahama)
4-0 Jd6w Wakaterumoto (Shikoroyama)
3-1 Jd11w Tatsubayama (Tokitsukaze)
4-0 Jd12w Kakueizan (Otowayama)
3-1 Jd20e Nikko (Isenoumi)
3-1 Jd25e Shoryu (Otowayama)
4-0 Jd26w Wakajin (Nishiiwa)
4-0 Jd31w Masakifuji (Isegahama)
3-1 Jd36e Tsugunohana (Onomatsu)
3-1 Jd36w Inaba (Onomatsu)
4-0 Jd45w Ryuho (Otowayama)
3-1 Jd49e Kototaiho (Sadogatake)
4-0 Jd51w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
4-0 Jd56e Shimogama (Sakaigawa)
3-1 Jd58e Kikuryuho (Hidenoyama)
3-1 Jd64w Daitenshin (Onomatsu)
4-0 Jd68e Oginosho (Dewanoumi)
3-1 Jd71w Yukiamami (Tatsunami)
4-0 Jd76w Sawayaka (Shikihide)
3-1 Jd82e Ojiyama (Tagonoura)
4-0 Jd85e Takahara (Futagoyama)
3-1 Jd89w Musashiumi (Fujishima)
4-0 Jd92e Tochinoshima (Kasugano)
3-1 Jd97e Azuma (Ajigawa)
3-1 Jd101e Anzakura (Ajigawa)

Jonokuchi (5 > 4)
4-0 Jk2e Masarufuji (Isegahama)
4-0 Jk9w Fujinoteru (Onoe)
3-1 Jk13e Katsunonishiki (Nishikido)
4-0 Jk18w Onojo (Takadagawa)
4-0 Jk21e Goseiryu (Takekuma)

List without the defeated rikishi (all profile links in one list):

 

Makushita (7)
4-0 Ms9w Tochimusashi (Kasugano)
4-0 Ms15w Kazuma (Kise)
4-0 Ms21w Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
4-0 Ms24w Ryusho (Oitekaze)
4-0 Ms43e Hokutenkai (Onoe)
4-0 Ms48e Shiroma (Onoe)
4-0 Ms55e Ohata (Tokitsukaze)

Sandanme (9)
4-0 Sd1w Ieshima (Yamahibiki)
4-0 Sd17w Fukai (Takasago)
4-0 Sd18w Uzumasa (Isenoumi)
4-0 Sd31e Kaki (Oitekaze)
4-0 Sd40e Akitoba (Minato)
4-0 Sd44w Chiyoraizan (Kokonoe)
4-0 Sd55w Hakuda (Asahiyama)
4-0 Sd59e Kyokutendo (Oshima)
4-0 Sd68w Yutakasho (Sakaigawa)

Jonidan (12)
4-0 Jd1w Kawazoe (Isegahama)
4-0 Jd6w Wakaterumoto (Shikoroyama)
4-0 Jd12w Kakueizan (Otowayama)
4-0 Jd26w Wakajin (Nishiiwa)
4-0 Jd31w Masakifuji (Isegahama)
4-0 Jd45w Ryuho (Otowayama)
4-0 Jd51w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
4-0 Jd56e Shimogama (Sakaigawa)
4-0 Jd68e Oginosho (Dewanoumi)
4-0 Jd76w Sawayaka (Shikihide)
4-0 Jd85e Takahara (Futagoyama)
4-0 Jd92e Tochinoshima (Kasugano)

Jonokuchi (4)
4-0 Jk2e Masarufuji (Isegahama)
4-0 Jk9w Fujinoteru (Onoe)
4-0 Jk18w Onojo (Takadagawa)
4-0 Jk21e Goseiryu (Takekuma)

(Reonito's makushita coverage at Tachiai.org: after Day 4, after Day 6, after Day 8)

Thanks to lowest-ranked Goseiryu defeating one-loss opponents in his last two bouts that's now a very nice bracket of 32 undefeated rikishi in total, and what makes it even better is that it's 16 in the upper two divisions and 16 in the lower two. Things could still get a bit more messy again if the respective lowest-ranked contenders in makushita fail to take out Ieshima from sandanme in both rounds 5 and 6, but outside of that possibility it looks like a straight-forward battle down to two 6-0's in both divisions. Oitekaze pair Daiyusho and Ryusho have required some messing with the schedule, but shouldn't make regular service outright impossible going forward. Onoe's Hokutenkai and Shiroma being next to each other in the queue would have been an issue for the upcoming round 5 as well, but that was automatically taken care of as a result of the adjustments that were needed for the Oitekaze guys.

Jonidan rikishi saw opponents from other divisions in three separate bouts in round 4, victorious Kawazoe just to make up the numbers but Ajigawa-beya duo Azuma and Anzakura because they couldn't face each other. Both were defeated by contenders from jonokuchi so there's now an unexpectedly high number of four 4-0's down there. There are no other complications in these two divisions, so we should be seeing things come down straight to three 6-0's in jonidan and one in jonokuchi now. It remains to be seen if they'll just do the lowest Jd 6-0 against the one from Jk in the end, or if different pairings will make more sense. There is also a possibility that the top two undefeated jonidan rikishi after round 6 will both be from either Isegahama or Otowayama, but we'll get to that if it actually happens.

Edited 7 hours ago by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Incidentally, as it's technically a promotion matter, I'll briefly hijack this thread to talk about erstwhile jonokuchi yusho contender Katsunonishiki: The unfortunate 18-year-old from Nishikido-beya is currently the rikishi who has been waiting the longest for his first-ever winning record; Kyushu is his 16th ranked tournament. Previously he has had four unsuccessful opportunities to clinch KK with a fourth win (twice in Kyushu 2023, once each in Natsu and Nagoya 2024), but with his 3-0 start this basho he's been giving himself up to four more. The first one didn't work out today, so here's hoping he can get it done at some point in week two.

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 9:

Already achieved: none

1 win: Daiseizan

2 wins: none

3 wins: Hatsuyama

4 wins: Fujiseiun, Asahakuryu, Kotoeiho, Kagayaki, Asanoyama,

5 wins: Shirokuma

6 wins: Hitoshi, Tochitaikai, Takerufuji, Fujiryoga

Edited yesterday at 07:27 by Tigerboy1966
correction

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 9:

1 win: Shishi

2 wins: Tomokaze, Mitakeumi, Ryuden, Chiyoshoma, Asakoryu

3 wins: none

4 wins: Sadanoumi

5 wins: Shonannoumi

6 wins: Oshoumi

Already demotable: Meisei

[Reonito 1,793]

On the makushita side, no clear promotion cases yet. I have Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (3-2) as one win away, as well as Ms3w Dewanoryu (4-1), the only kachi-koshi in the promotion zone. Dewanoryu will try to bolster his case on day 10 when he visits juryo to fight J13e Himukamaru (2-7), currently the most endangered incumbent. Ms1e Takakento (2-3) and Ms15w Kazuma (5-0) are in the same position: they go up if they win out, but any loss drops them from consideration. Ms5w Seihakuho (3-1) can stay in the running for a numerical promotion case by beating Ms10e Kotokenryu tomorrow; Ms2e Otsuji (2-3) and Ms5e Kazuto (2-2) must win out and hope for favorable banzuke luck, while everyone else is either mathematically or effectively out of the picture.

[Reonito 1,793]

Aki champion Ms2w Shimazuumi is 1-4, Ms3e Endo retired, Ms4e Daiamami is 0-5, while Ms4w Miyanokaze is 2-3, and even a 4-3 final score is very unlikely to see him go up from that rank.

Edited 21 hours ago by Reonito

[Oskanohana 370]

Well, the main problem for the makushita guys is that with their policy of no demotions from juryo unless it's blatantly obvious (and maybe not even then) and the current lower juryo crop doing pretty well, there might be not a lot of promotions, even with Mita going down (it would've been interesting if he had won 1 match and he was in the bubble).

Himukamaru looks overwhelmed, so that should be a second slot. The only ones that could open extra spots reasonably would be the J14's: Shiden(4-5), who is slowly getting worse with age but I like the guy and even 6-9 might be enough, here's hoping; and Wakanosho (5-4), who is slowly getting better with age. We all know that Hakuyozan and Tohakuryu will get things done down the stretch because they're a case of the proverbial bad penny.

So if Kazuma manages to overcome his laziness (he looks absolutely bored out there), there's not much room in the salaried ranks for newcomers.

[Reonito 1,793]

It's pretty likely that there won't be a ton of promotion pressure anyway. Kyokukaiyu and Dewanoryu are the only guys in the promotion zone who could potentially afford another loss, and even they would be left with marginal cases unless they win out. 

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Juryo wins away from promotion (or promotability?) after day 10:

Already achieved: none

1 win: Daiseizan

2 wins: none

3 wins: Asahakuryu, Kagayaki, Asanoyama, Hatsuyama

4 wins: Fujiseiun,  Kotoeiho, Shirokuma

5 wins: Takerufuji, Fujiryoga

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Maku'uchi wins away from "by the numbers" safety after day 10:

1 win: Shishi, Mitakeumi, Chiyoshoma, 

2 wins: Tomokaze, Ryuden, Asakoryu

3 wins: none

4 wins: Shonannoumi, Sadanoumi

5 wins: Oshoumi

Already demotable: Meisei

[Asashosakari 20,301]

Lower division races Day 9: 16 rikishi at 5-0 (results, videos)

Makushita (7 > 4)
4-1 Ms9w Tochimusashi (Kasugano)
5-0 Ms15w Kazuma (Kise)
5-0 Ms21w Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Ms24w Ryusho (Oitekaze)
4-1 Ms43e Hokutenkai (Onoe)
4-1 Ms48e Shiroma (Onoe)
5-0 Ms55e Ohata (Tokitsukaze)

Sandanme (9 > 4)
4-1 Sd1w Ieshima (Yamahibiki)
4-1 Sd17w Fukai (Takasago)
5-0 Sd18w Uzumasa (Isenoumi)
5-0 Sd31e Kaki (Oitekaze)
4-1 Sd40e Akitoba (Minato)
5-0 Sd44w Chiyoraizan (Kokonoe)
4-1 Sd55w Hakuda (Asahiyama)
5-0 Sd59e Kyokutendo (Oshima)
4-1 Sd68w Yutakasho (Sakaigawa)

Jonidan (12 > 6)
5-0 Jd1w Kawazoe (Isegahama)
4-1 Jd6w Wakaterumoto (Shikoroyama)
5-0 Jd12w Kakueizan (Otowayama)
4-1 Jd26w Wakajin (Nishiiwa)
4-1 Jd31w Masakifuji (Isegahama)
5-0 Jd45w Ryuho (Otowayama)
5-0 Jd51w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
4-1 Jd56e Shimogama (Sakaigawa)
5-0 Jd68e Oginosho (Dewanoumi)
4-1 Jd76w Sawayaka (Shikihide)
5-0 Jd85e Takahara (Futagoyama)
4-1 Jd92e Tochinoshima (Kasugano)

Jonokuchi (4 > 2)
5-0 Jk2e Masarufuji (Isegahama)
4-1 Jk9w Fujinoteru (Onoe)
4-1 Jk18w Onojo (Takadagawa)
5-0 Jk21e Goseiryu (Takekuma)

List without the defeated rikishi (all profile links in one list):

 

Makushita (4)
5-0 Ms15w Kazuma (Kise)
5-0 Ms21w Daiyusho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Ms24w Ryusho (Oitekaze)
5-0 Ms55e Ohata (Tokitsukaze)

Sandanme (4)
5-0 Sd18w Uzumasa (Isenoumi)
5-0 Sd31e Kaki (Oitekaze)
5-0 Sd44w Chiyoraizan (Kokonoe)
5-0 Sd59e Kyokutendo (Oshima)

Jonidan (6)
5-0 Jd1w Kawazoe (Isegahama)
5-0 Jd12w Kakueizan (Otowayama)
5-0 Jd45w Ryuho (Otowayama)
5-0 Jd51w Sekimoto (Onomatsu)
5-0 Jd68e Oginosho (Dewanoumi)
5-0 Jd85e Takahara (Futagoyama)

Jonokuchi (2)
5-0 Jk2e Masarufuji (Isegahama)
5-0 Jk21e Goseiryu (Takekuma)

(Reonito's makushita coverage at Tachiai.org: after Day 9)

There goes my pre-basho favourite for the jonokuchi yusho, Onojo. Swings and roundabouts...in round 4 former mid-sandanme Goseiryu still had his hands full against an opponent that has never been beyond mid-jonidan, but this time he proved up to the task of facing makushita regular Onojo. Calling the finish "utchari" was most generous, though. He and young Masarufuji will battle it out for the division's sole 6-0 score now, and then we'll have to see what they decide to do with the last man standing for round 7.

Six fairly one-sided matches followed in the jonidan race. The next round's winner of the Kawazoe - Kakueizan meeting ought to be the favourite for the title, although one probably shouldn't entirely rule out talented 18-year-olds Ryuho and Takahara, both only in their third tournament. Sekimoto is just in year two of his career as well, but had hit a bit of a wall in upper jonidan for now, while Oginosho is a 32-year-old veteran who at his best was a frequent face in makushita. (Albeit without ever truly establishing himself there; 32 basho in total but never more than 6 in a row. His 13 promotions from Sd to Ms are fairly high up the record lists.) The Otowayama double is still on, but it might not matter much for scheduling purposes as they may want to bring in a 5-1 rikishi for the final round's matchups no matter what.

The action in sandanme was largely more competitive than earlier on, and it started off with somewhat of a surprise as semi-prospect Kyokutendo prevailed over experienced Yutakasho; he's admittedly 30 years old but was still in upper makushita as recently as a year ago (since then he has gone 12-30 with five makekoshi and dropped over a hundred ranks, though). Chiyoraizan - Hakuda had an even bigger age difference, but this one went in favour of the 38-year-old veteran. Jonokuchi/jonidan double champion Kaki had to work a bit against Akitoba but ultimately came through convincingly as he aims for a third straight title. And lastly, a decisive victory for 17-year-old top prospect Uzumasa against upper makushita regular Fukai who's down here after back-to-back incomplete tournaments.

Two very entertaining matches opened up the makushita section of these races, with Ohata and Ryusho taking the wins. 29-year-old Ohata is a former makushita semi-regular (similar career arc as Oginosho), but is currently back in the division for the first time in almost two years, and his 5-0 record is arguably not what anyone could have expected. Conversely, Ryusho is of course a very recent makushita tsukedashi starter who has had two decent 5-2's so far and has at minimum assured himself of another one with his current five wins. Ryusho's stablemate Daiyusho had one of the two quicker victories of the day, impressively earning himself a second consecutive 5-0 start. (Last basho's went to 6-0 before he was finally stopped by Aki champion Shimazuumi.) And finally, another Kazuma procession as he dispatched former juryo Tochimusashi.

Makushita and sandanme will each play down to two 6-0 scores now. The two Oitekaze representatives in makushita aren't causing a schedule deviation for once, although they could create another messy situation for the final round if they both win tomorrow. That being said, Kazuma will of course want to make that irrelevant by defeating Daiyusho. As good as he has looked, I'm not quite ready to hand him the winner's certificate (and juryo promotion) just yet...fast and tricky Ryusho in particular may still be able to do something about it.

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Key juryo promotion matches for day 11 (wins needed for promotabilty in brackets):

• Fujiryoga (5) vs Kazekeno
• Takerufuji (5) vs Tamashoho
• Kagayaki (3) vs Asanoyama (3)
• Daiseizan (1) vs Hatsuyama (3)
• Asahakuryu (3) vs Tochitaikai
• Kotoeiho (4) vs Shirokuma (4)
• Fujiseiun (4) vs Nishikigi

Edited 5 hours ago by Tigerboy1966

[Tigerboy1966 1,644]

Key maku'uchi relegation matches for day 11 (wins needed for safety in brackets):

• Ryuden (2) vs Oshoumi (5)
• Mitakeumi (1) vs Meisei
• Tomokaze (2) vs Sadanoumi (4)
• Shishi (1) vs Asakoryu (2)
• Shonannoumi (4) vs Midorifuji
• Chiyoshoma (1) vs Kinbozan

[Reonito 1,793]

In Makushita, Ms3w Dewanoryu (5-1) now has the first promotion zone record that's guaranteed to compute into Juryo after he defeated endangered incumbent J13e Himukamaru (2-8), who can't afford any more losses. Ms1w Kyokukaiyu (3-2) can join him tomorrow by beating Ms5e Kazuto (3-2). Ms1e Takakento (2-3) and Ms15w Kazuma (5-0) must win tomorrow to stay in contention. Even two wins by Ms2e Otsuji (2-3) may well not be enough, while everyone else is either mathematically or effectively out of the picture.

[Reonito 1,793]

On the Juryo side, we have injury victim Mita, who is ticketed for a division drop all the way from J3e. Beyond the above-mentioned Himukamaru, the other most-endangered incumbents are J10w Tohakuryu (3-7), J14e Shiden (5-5), and J10e Hakuyozan (3-7), who need 3 wins apiece for mathematical safety, though 2 wins will probably end up being enough in practice.