Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2014

[Asashosakari 20,223]

Incidentally, here's my proposed Kyushu makuuchi banzuke:

Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu

Harumafuji Y2 ---

Kotoshogiku O1 Kisenosato

--- O2 Goeido

Myogiryu S Takekaze

Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu

Terunofuji M1 Endo

Takayasu M2 Toyonoshima

Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze

Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi

Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi

Aminishiki M6 Kaisei

Shohozan M7 Chiyootori

Tochiozan M8 Arawashi

Tamawashi M9 Tochinowaka

Ichinojo M10 Kitataiki

Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa

Sadanoumi M12 Sadanofuji

Homasho M13 Sokokurai

Kyokutenho M14 Azumaryu

Kyokushuho M15 Okinoumi

Tokitenku M16 Kagamio

It conforms to all three major rules: No KK has been demoted, no MK has been promoted, and no rikishi with X wins has been passed by any rikishi with fewer than X wins. Everything else is just a judgement call, after all.

[krindel 688]

Incidentally, here's my proposed Kyushu makuuchi banzuke:

Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu

Harumafuji Y2 ---

Kotoshogiku O1 Kisenosato

--- O2 Goeido

Myogiryu S Takekaze

Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu

Terunofuji M1 Endo

Takayasu M2 Toyonoshima

Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze

Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi

Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi

Aminishiki M6 Kaisei

Shohozan M7 Chiyootori

Tochiozan M8 Arawashi

Tamawashi M9 Tochinowaka

Ichinojo M10 Kitataiki

Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa

Sadanoumi M12 Sadanofuji

Homasho M13 Sokokurai

Kyokutenho M14 Azumaryu

Kyokushuho M15 Okinoumi

Tokitenku M16 Kagamio

It conforms to all three major rules: No KK has been demoted, no MK has been promoted, and no rikishi with X wins has been passed by any rikishi with fewer than X wins. Everything else is just a judgement call, after all.

I'll take it that was your guess for Aki, not Kyushu?

Late Edit: (Laughing...) ... took me a while to get it, didn't it? Very clever indeed :-)

Edited October 3, 2014 by krindel

[Gurowake 4,149]

Incidentally, here's my proposed Kyushu makuuchi banzuke:

Hakuho Y1 Kakuryu

Harumafuji Y2 ---

Kotoshogiku O1 Kisenosato

--- O2 Goeido

Myogiryu S Takekaze

Jokoryu K Chiyotairyu

Terunofuji M1 Endo

Takayasu M2 Toyonoshima

Aoiyama M3 Yoshikaze

Takarafuji M4 Osunaarashi

Toyohibiki M5 Ikioi

Aminishiki M6 Kaisei

Shohozan M7 Chiyootori

Tochiozan M8 Arawashi

Tamawashi M9 Tochinowaka

Ichinojo M10 Kitataiki

Chiyomaru M11 Takanoiwa

Sadanoumi M12 Sadanofuji

Homasho M13 Sokokurai

Kyokutenho M14 Azumaryu

Kyokushuho M15 Okinoumi

Tokitenku M16 Kagamio

It conforms to all three major rules: No KK has been demoted, no MK has been promoted, and no rikishi with X wins has been passed by any rikishi with fewer than X wins. Everything else is just a judgement call, after all.

Very clever.

[Gurowake 4,149]

I think it's fairly reasonable to have Juryo look something more like this than have ridiculous promotions for 8-7s or the kyujos ranked ridiculously high. Overpromotions and underdemotions abound, but I think this just about evens things out. I'm sure there could be a few reasonable changes, but this is the basic form I think they'll end up going with.

Not that they will, of course.

Sadanofuji M12w 4-11	J1	Tokitenku M16e 6-9
Kagamio M16w 6-9	J2	Chiyoo J8w 9-6
Satoyama J9w 9-3-3	J3	Seiro J10w 9-6
Shotenro J3e 6-9	J4	Sotairyu J2w 5-10
Tosayutaka J4e 6-9	J5	Gagamaru J3w 5-10
Wakanosato J5e 6-9	J6	Fujiazuma J6w 7-8
Tamaasuka J6e 6-9	J7	Asasekiryu J7e 7-8
Asahisho J11w 8-7	J8	Daido J12e 8-7
Tokushinho J8e 6-9	J9	Kitaharima J12w 8-7
Homasho M13e 0-0-15	J10	Daieisho J9e 6-9
Iwasaki Ms2w 6-1	J11	Azumaryu M14w 0-0-15
Tenkaiho Ms1e 4-3	J12	Tochihiryu Ms1w 4-3
Sakigake J10e 6-9	J13	Kotoeko Ms3e 5-2
Dewayahate Ms2e 4-3	J14	Tatsu Ms3w 4-3

[Chiyozakura 163]

You think so? I had the impression that people were pretty upset about certain banzuke positions in the past,even though they had followed sumo for quite some time.

How does that matter? In the situation we're looking at now, Aoiyama is the next East Sekiwake at least 99 times out of 100. You seem to be saying that the lack of fixed rules means people shouldn't be surprised or upset if the committee actually uses the dumb 1% option instead. With that attitude we might as well cancel GTB and stop discussing the banzuke altogether because we'll be presented with the Word of God on banzuke release day and that's all anybody needs.

I do not think there is a reason to cancel the GtB. When I was still participating in the sumo games I played it myself. One of the things I have learned is that Sumo is different from most other sports in having no written rules for the rankings. A case that looks very much alike to another one might be handled very differently. Even on the same banzuke you sometimes have the exact distances between a 4-3 rikishi and a 5-2 one. And in one case the first is ahead and in another one the second is. You can argue whether that is fair or not but as there are no explanations by the banzuke committee we do not know the reasoning behind it. My conclusion is that it is in a lot of cases impossible to say what is definitely going to happen. By stating it to somebody who is obviously new to banzuke questions it will lead to wrong information and in worst case, to people believing that the real banzuke is a "scandal" (quotation from this basho's banzuke thread). I think this could be prevented by just stating things as they are. And that is all I am saying.

What you make out of it is completely up to you. You can try to figure out the reasoning behind the banzuke like Feginowaka's post shows and get an explanation why the committee has gone out of the way most people here, including me, thought was one of the few rules that stand. Or you can accept that things are decided on a case by case basis and outcomes will differ. The right thing about it, which I think is done by most long-time members here, is probably a mix of both. And the way I see your posts in this forum you are usually doing exactly that, so there is no reason to feel offended.

And as a last possibility you could, like someone in this thread, come to the conclusion that your own view, whch is an individual fan's view, is definitely right and so the banzuke must be wrong, which I would not recommend and consider a surprisingly self-confident assessement, by the way.

[krindel 688]

You think so? I had the impression that people were pretty upset about certain banzuke positions in the past,even though they had followed sumo for quite some time.

How does that matter? In the situation we're looking at now, Aoiyama is the next East Sekiwake at least 99 times out of 100. You seem to be saying that the lack of fixed rules means people shouldn't be surprised or upset if the committee actually uses the dumb 1% option instead. With that attitude we might as well cancel GTB and stop discussing the banzuke altogether because we'll be presented with the Word of God on banzuke release day and that's all anybody needs.

I do not think there is a reason to cancel the GtB. When I was still participating in the sumo games I played it myself. One of the things I have learned is that Sumo is different from most other sports in having no written rules for the rankings. A case that looks very much alike to another one might be handled very differently. Even on the same banzuke you sometimes have the exact distances between a 4-3 rikishi and a 5-2 one. And in one case the first is ahead and in another one the second is. You can argue whether that is fair or not but as there are no explanations by the banzuke committee we do not know the reasoning behind it. My conclusion is that it is in a lot of cases impossible to say what is definitely going to happen. By stating it to somebody who is obviously new to banzuke questions it will lead to wrong information and in worst case, to people believing that the real banzuke is a "scandal" (quotation from this basho's banzuke thread). I think this could be prevented by just stating things as they are. And that is all I am saying.

What you make out of it is completely up to you. You can try to figure out the reasoning behind the banzuke like Feginowaka's post shows and get an explanation why the committee has gone out of the way most people here, including me, thought was one of the few rules that stand. Or you can accept that things are decided on a case by case basis and outcomes will differ. The right thing about it, which I think is done by most long-time members here, is probably a mix of both. And the way I see your posts in this forum you are usually doing exactly that, so there is no reason to feel offended.

And as a last possibility you could, like someone in this thread, come to the conclusion that your own view, whch is an individual fan's view, is definitely right and so the banzuke must be wrong, which I would not recommend and consider a surprisingly self-confident assessement, by the way.

No one here is, I think, under the delusion that our discussion has any bearing to the actual decisions of the committee, or that should the committee decides otherwise than what anyone considers is fair there's anything to do about it other than accept it... However, the banzuke makers are not beyond criticism, nor are they unaffected by their inner politics, the possibility of human mistakes or sometimes plain laziness (especially when it comes to the lower reaches of the banzuke). So if someone thinks that Goeido's rank the previous basho was scandalous or that Tochinoshin's or Tochiozan's rank this basho was the same, then he is welcome to state his opinion here and offer arguments about it. Doesn't change a thing about the real banzuke, of course, but neither will discussing international politics affect anything, doesn't stop people from wanting to talk about it.

I really really fail to see the point of all this. You objected vehemently and at length to a statement made by a member about the certainty of something that noone (including yourself) has offered a single argument against, simply on the grounds that "the banzuke committee can do anything they like and there's nothing anyone can do about it".

My conclusion is that it is in a lot of cases impossible to say what is definitely going to happen. By stating it to somebody who is obviously new to banzuke questions it will lead to wrong information and in worst case, to people believing that the real banzuke is a "scandal"

As for that, I am guessing your proposal for what we should say to anyone new to banzuke questions about anything is "No, its not certain, just wait a couple of months for the new banzuke to be published and we'll see"? Now that will be a very interesting forum to be a part of...

I appreciate the efforts people are making to help understand the banzuke process, and wouldn't want anyone to hold back their opinion to be "politically correct". As far as I am concerned, there are cases where the decision is a toss-up and one can't really know what the committee will decide, other cases where there are strong indications but there are arguments against, and cases that seem pretty clear cut. I would much rather people offer their arguments for and against any possible outcome, than spend two forum pages discussing the relativity of the banzuke process and your taking offense at someone suggesting that there are some things that we can be certain about.

[Andreas21 219]

To me, discussions on Banzuke process are often interesting, as the final published Banzuke is.

Unlike rankings in almost all other sports, the Banzuke combines hard and soft facts, the latter of which are open to discussion. Sometimes the decisions are unfair, but make sense viewed from a different angle.

This is all upon whether one considers the Banzuke committee as knowledgeable or not. I for one believe that they are, and they have reasons. People here often have good ideas what these reasons might be.

Same is true for promotions and pairings. Some of the color of Sumo would be gone if all that would be decided upon a complete algorithm.