The quest for tsuna-tori (long)

[Kashunowaka 300]

With Chiyotaikai gunning for yokozuna promotion and in view of the recent discussions elsewhere about the criteria for promotion, I thought I'd have a look at how some previous yokozuna candidates did in the past. I hope some of you will find it interesting as well.

It isn't always obvious as to what the requirements to be considered a yokozuna candidate (tsuna-tori) are. This table shows the records of all rikishi promoted to yokozuna since 1973:

Yokozuna promotions

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Kotozakura	9/72	9-6	11/72	14-1Y	1/73	14-1Y
Wajima	1/73	11-4J	3/73	13-2J	5/73	15-0Y
Kitanoumi	3/74	10-5	5/74	13-2Y	7/74	13-2D
Wakanohana II (Wakamisugi)	1/78	13-2J	3/78	13-2D	5/78	14-1D
Mienoumi	3/79	10-5	5/79	13-2J	7/79	14-1D
Chiyonofuji	3/81	11-4J	5/81	13-2J	7/81	14-1Y
Takanosato	3/83	12-3J	5/83	13-2J	7/83	14-1Y
Futahaguro (Kitao)	3/86	10-5	5/86	12-3J	7/86	14-1D
Hokutoumi	1/87	11-4	3/87	12-3Y	5/87	13-2J
Onokuni	5/87	15-0Y	7/87	12-3J	9/87	13-2J
Asahifuji	3/90	8-7	5/90	14-1Y	7/90	14-1Y
Akebono	9/92	9-6	11/92	14-1Y	1/93	13-2Y
Takanohana II	7/94	11-4	9/94	15-0Y	11/94	15-0Y
Wakanohana III	1/98	10-5	3/98	14-1Y	5/98	12-3Y
Musashimaru	1/99	8-7	3/99	13-2Y	5/99	13-2Y
Asashoryu	9/02	10-5	11/02	14-1Y	1/03	14-1Y

Y = yusho, D = yusho-doten (same result as yusho winner), J = jun-yusho (runner up)

All rikishi being promoted during the last 30 years have fulfilled the following criteria:

• two consecutive basho with yusho or jun-yusho
  
• record at least 12-3 in both basho
  
• ranked ozeki in both basho
  

Note: The last yokozuna not to fulfil these criteria was Tamanoumi, who was promoted in 1970 after 13-2Y / 10-5 / 13-2D.

The record in the third last basho before promotion seems to be of rather little significance. A good record probably helps, but a poor record doesn't necessarily hurt. However, no rikishi has been promoted after make-koshi or being absent in that basho, as far as I know.

During the last 15 years, all yokozuna have been promoted after consecutive yusho. Is that the definite criteria then, or is it a coincidence?

Yokozuna candidates after yusho

Yokozuna candidates after zensho yusho

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Takanosato	7/82	9-6	9/82	15-0Y	11/82	10-5
Wakashimazu	5/84	9-6	7/84	15-0Y	9/84	11-4
Onokuni	3/87	9-6	5/87	15-0Y	7/87	12-3J
Musashimaru	5/94	12-3J	7/94	15-0Y	9/94	11-4
Takanohana II	7/94	11-4	9/94	15-0Y	11/94	15-0Y

Takanohana's 6th and 7th yusho. Onokuni was promoted after yet another basho.

Yokozuna candidates after 14-1 yusho

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Kotozakura	9/72	9-6	11/72	14-1Y	1/73	14-1Y
Kotokaze	11/82	10-5	1/83	14-1Y	3/83	11-4
Wakashimazu	1/84	11-4	3/84	14-1Y	5/84	9-6
Asahifuji	11/87	11-4	1/88	14-1Y	3/88	12-3
Konishiki	9/89	5-10	11/89	14-1Y	1/90	10-5
Asahifuji	3/90	8-7	5/90	14-1Y	7/90	14-1Y
Kirishima	11/90	10-5	1/91	14-1Y	3/91	5-10
Akebono	9/92	9-6	11/92	14-1Y	1/93	13-2Y
Takanohana II	3/93	11-4J	5/93	14-1Y	7/93	13-2D
Takanohana II	11/93	7-8	1/94	14-1Y	3/94	11-4
Takanohana II	3/94	11-4	5/94	14-1Y	7/94	11-4
Takanonami	11/95	9-6	1/96	14-1Y	3/96	11-4
Wakanohana III	11/96	11-4	1/97	14-1Y	3/97	3-1-11
Takanonami	9/97	12-3	11/97	14-1Y	1/98	10-5
Wakanohana III	1/98	10-5	3/98	14-1Y	5/98	12-3Y
Chiyotaikai	5/02	11-4	7/02	14-1Y	9/02	10-5
Asashoryu	9/02	10-5	11/02	14-1Y	1/03	14-1Y

In spite of Takanohana's excellent record in 1993, the Sumo Kyokai waited.

Yokozuna candidates after 13-2 yusho

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Kitanoumi	3/74	10-5	5/74	13-2Y	7/74	13-2D
Takanohana I	1/75	10-5	3/75	13-2Y	5/75	9-6
Wakanohana II (Wakamisugi)	3/77	9-6	5/77	13-2Y	7/77	9-6
Asashio	1/85	9-6	3/85	13-2Y	5/85	11-4
Hokutenyu	5/85	10-5	7/85	13-2Y	9/85	9-6
Konishiki	9/91	11-4	11/91	13-2Y	1/92	12-3
Konishiki	1/92	12-3	3/92	13-2Y	5/92	9-6
Musashimaru	1/99	8-7	3/99	13-2Y	5/99	13-2Y
Kaio	1/01	10-5	3/01	13-2Y	5/01	4-5-6
Kaio	5/01	4-5-6	7/01	13-2Y	9/01	0-4-11
Tochiazuma	11/01	12-3*	1/02	13-2Y	3/02	10-5

*sekiwake

The closest call was for Konishiki, but he only came in third in Hatsu 1992.

Yokozuna candidates after 12-3 or 11-4 yusho

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Takanohana I	7/75	0-4-11	9/75	12-3Y	11/75	8-7
Hokutoumi	1/87	11-4	3/87	12-3Y	5/87	13-2J
Wakanohana III	9/95	10-5	11/95	12-3Y	1/96	0-4-11
Musashimaru	9/96	11-4	11/96	11-4Y	1/97	12-3
Musashimaru	11/97	12-3	1/98	12-3Y	3/98	8-7
Chiyotaikai	1/03	0-0-15	3/03	12-3Y	5/03	?

12-3 yusho are quite rare, so there are very few precedents. The question whether 0-0-15 / 12-3Y / 12-3Y is good enough to be promoted to yokozuna remains purely hypothetical, at least until after Natsu basho.

11-4 by an ozeki has only ever happened once, and though Musashimaru got 12 wins in the following basho, he was only third. So until someone wins two basho in a row with one of them being 11-4, the question whether that is sufficient is also hypothetical.

Yokozuna candidates after jun-yusho

There hasn't been any 15-0 jun-yusho.

Yokozuna candidates after 14-1 jun-yusho

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Asahikuni	7/77	9-6	9/77	14-1J	11/77	8-7
Asahifuji	11/88	12-3J	1/89	14-1D	3/89	13-2J
Konishiki	3/91	9-6	5/91	14-1D	7/91	12-3J
Wakanohana III	5/94	0-0-15	7/94	14-1J	9/94	12-3

No ozeki won a yusho following a 14-1 jun-yusho. Asahifuji was close, but probably suffered from coming right after the Futahaguro debacle. Konishiki wasn't that close, as the yusho was won with 14-1.

Yokozuna candidates after 13-2 jun-yusho

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Wajima	1/73	11-4J	3/73	13-2J	5/73	15-0Y
Takanohana I	1/77	12-3J	3/77	13-2J	5/77	10-5
Wakanohana II (Wakamisugi)	11/77	10-5	1/78	13-2J	3/78	13-2D
Wakanohana II (Wakamisugi)	1/78	13-2J	3/78	13-2D	5/78	14-1D
Mienoumi	3/79	10-5	5/79	13-2J	7/79	14-1D
Chiyonofuji	3/81	11-4J	5/81	13-2J	7/81	14-1Y
Takanosato	3/83	12-3J	5/83	13-2J	7/83	14-1Y
Wakashimazu	3/83	8-3-4	5/83	13-2J	7/83	11-4
Konishiki	11/87	8-7	1/88	13-2J	3/88	8-7
Asahifuji	1/89	14-1D	3/89	13-2J	5/89	13-2D
Asahifuji	3/89	13-2J	5/89	13-2D	7/89	8-7
Konishiki	1/90	10-5	3/90	13-2D	5/90	12-3
Kirishima	7/90	6-2-7	9/90	13-2J	11/90	10-5
Takanohana II	5/93	14-1Y	7/93	13-2D	9/93	12-3J
Musashimaru	11/94	12-3	1/95	13-2D	3/95	12-3
Musashimaru	7/97	10-5	9/97	13-2D	11/97	12-3
Chiyotaikai	11/01	0-0-15	1/02	13-2D	3/02	7-8

No ozeki since 1983 managed to win yusho following a strong jun-yusho (13-2 or better).

Note: Takanosato was promoted after the remarkable streak 10-5 / 11-4 / 12-3J / 13-2J / 14-1Y. Incredibly enough he completed the streak with 15-0Y, being the only yokozuna who got zensho yusho in his debut.

Ozeki with 12-3 jun-yusho has happened 30 times since 1973. Normally this isn't considered good enough to be considered a yokozuna candidate. Nevertheless, two yokozuna were promoted after initial 12-3 jun-yusho, so here are just for the record the cases where 12-3 jun-yusho was followed up by an equal or better performance:

Ozeki with 12-3 jun-yusho followed up by equal or better performance

Rikishi	1st basho	Record	2nd basho	Record	3rd basho	Record	Promoted
Takanohana I	11/76	9-6	1/77	12-3J	3/77	13-2J
Takanosato	1/83	11-4	3/83	12-3J	5/83	13-2J
Futahaguro (Kitao)	3/86	10-5	5/86	12-3J	7/86	14-1D
Onokuni	5/87	15-0Y	7/87	12-3J	9/87	13-2J
Asahifuji	7/88	11-4	9/88	12-3J	11/88	12-3J
Asahifuji	9/88	12-3J	11/88	12-3J	1/89	14-1D
Musashimaru	3/94	9-6	5/94	12-3J	7/94	15-0Y
Wakanohana III	1/96	0-4-11	3/96	12-3J	5/96	12-3J

Neither Asahifuji nor Musashimaru were promoted although their records were just as strong or better than Futahaguro's. So it seems rather unlikely that anyone with a 12-3 jun-yusho will be declared tsuna-tori again.

Onokuni was perhaps helped by the fact that he had won zensho yusho two basho before his promotion basho, and had a 3-basho record of 40-5. Futahaguro's promotion remains a mystery to me.

Yusho followed by jun-yusho or vice versa (by an ozeki) has only happened twice since 1988: Takanohana in 1993 (14-1Y / 13-2D) and Musashimaru in 1994 (12-3J / 15-0Y). When Musashimaru was runner-up in Natsu 1994, Takanohana won with 14-1, so Musa was never considered a yokozuna candidate beforehand.

Takanohana's case in 1993 was arguably stronger (although the win-loss record is the same, 27-3). Kitanoumi Rijicho himself had a remarkably similar record back in 1974, also in his three first basho as ozeki. Takanohana was three months younger and had a slightly better record than Kitanoumi. Kitanoumi was promoted; Takanohana wasn't. I think the fact that two yokozuna retired around Nagoya basho 1974 must have helped Kitanoumi's promotion.

My guess is that the Sumo Kyokai will be happier to promote after a strong jun-yusho followed by a yusho than the other way around. But there hasn't been such a case for 20 years.

Some conclusions:

A yusho is a yusho is a yusho. Asahifuji's record of 40-5 over three basho with zero yusho wasn't enough, but Musashimaru's 34-11 with two yusho was.

The criteria for yokozuna promotion have indeed been interpreted slightly stricter after Futahaguro.

Edited May 6, 2003 by Kashunowaka

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

You're probably wondering why there hasn't been any replies yet. :-P I'd say it's probably because such a heavy load of information tends to be hard to swallow. With such detailed statistical analysis you remind me of a certain compatriot of yours. (Shaking head...)

Interesting message, no doubt! :-)

[Zenjimoto 40]

I'd have to agree with Juhani there... really a wealth of information!! :-) I am still chweing on it... (Shaking head...) Good work!

Cheers

Zenjimoto

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

Looks like a great analysis! Thank you!

I have a couple of questions:

13-2D

What does the D mean after a tournament record?

A yusho is a yusho is a yusho

And so it should be, I think. That's consistent with "The Fast and The Furious" philosophy of "it don't matter it you win by an inch or a mile" -- winning is the important factor. Of course, if you throw in other people being kyujo/injured then the equation becomes more complicated. :-) I think these yokozuna promotion debates are great fun!

[QttP 0]

What does the D mean after a tournament record?

A playoff loss. However, I've seen some J's which should have been D's...

[Kashunowaka 300]

What does the D mean after a tournament record?

A playoff loss. However, I've seen some J's which should have been D's...

There were bound to be some errors... :-)

Futahaguro was involved in a playoff against Chiyonofuji in Nagoya 1986, after which he was promoted. And Asahifuji lost the playoff versus Hokutoumi in Hatsu 1989.

[QttP 0]

There were bound to be some errors... :-)

Bah, it doesn't matter. That was a FABULOUS piece of work!

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

Thank you QttP-zeki. I was also curious as to the actual word signified by the D, and if possible its representation in kanji. I know what yusho and jun-yusho look like so I wanted to complete that set, so to speak :-)

10-5 / 11-4 / 12-3J / 13-2J / 14-1Y. Incredibly enough he completed the streak with 15-0Y

Wow, Takanosato really had an amazing stretch there -- very nice! I'll go looking for videos from that time but I have a feeling they'll be hard to find.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

I was also curious as to the actual word signified by the D, and if possible its representation in kanji.

(Yusho-)doten, I believe. I have no idea about the kanji (as expected). :-/

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

The kanji for dōten are

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

Thanks :-/

[MongolPower 0]

Thank you Kashunowaka!

[QttP 0]

New bump record?