Math the Banzuke Hatsu 2024

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

On 19/02/2024 at 10:49, Hoshotakamoto said:

In my official GTB submission I moved Meisei ahead of Oho, decided I didn't think they would drop Takayasu below Midorifuji so he got a bump from M9e in my math above to M4w in the submission I sent out. Hiradoumi remained at M5e and Midori dropped one full slot to kick out Tsurugisho at M5w. Kinbozan and Gonoyama remained intact and Tsurugisho re-entered at M7e for a +4.0 instead of a +5.5 at 9-6. Notice we still have to get through 4 more names before we get to the part where I had listed Takayasu originally.

I had Onosato M6w, Tamawashi M8e, and here I assumed Hokutofuji would get consideration over Onosho, who is now a +5.5 at 10-5 instead of +6.5. Finally Takayasu's move is no longer in play, but I did hold Shodai up ahead of Kotoshoho which I'm sure they will agree with in the official decision. I decided to drop Mitakeumi to M12e letting in Shonannoumi and Ryuden -- I also moved Shimazuumi ahead of Sadanoumi which I'm not sure I even realized went against the math. Finally I relegated Myogiryu, Takerufuji, and Endo to the bottom three slots, bumping Hokuseiho, and citing the Hakuoho precedent for placing Takerufuji lower than I wanted to put him (also his record against those higher juryos will probably silence any argument against bias that tends to favor the higher seeded incumbents).

None of this really relied on the analysis I wanted to do that goes into head to head historical ranking-record considerations -- I may end up posting more of that analysis later but my GTB was basically just me being in a hurry with 75 minutes before the deadline.

I'm reading my official submission and the version I posted above landing around 41 and 42 a piece, with my updated version jumping out to an early lead (starting from the top down) and then being overtaken by the middle of the banzuke. I'll do a more indepth look at the choices later.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

All right let's do a math retrospective and see what the decision makers thought of the banzuke math.

I revert to the unstacked changes, although Abi and company move up because there wasn't a lot of room for debate above that line.

My first observation is that Nishikigi moves up to K1w (most people knew this) as the most eligible claimant of K1w. Ura could not hold his spot and Nishikigi calculated ahead of the rest.

Subsequently the committee went the route of counting Ura's 6-9 as -0.5 instead of moving Asanoyama ahead of him. This cost me 2 points in my MTB and my official GTB. The official decision also promotes consistency in the treatment of Ura and Atamifuji, which I might have given more consideration to.

Before I move on, I'll also note that Atamifuji is the obvious pick for M2e, and they agreed.

Available points: 24

MTB points: 22. My official GTB points: 22 (no disagreement yet vs what I had posted publicly).
 

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Now I'll zoom in on my Takayasu debacle.

Reading the stacks below, it seems clear that Tobizaru will hold up as M4e with his 7-8. He mathematically has the best claim to M2w, but he will not be promoted above his starting position.

Meisei vs Oho is the first place where I changed my mind. First I agreed with the popular position, which was that Oho's 10-5 would put him at M2w and Meisei would take M3e. When the time came to submit my entry, I decided 9-6 was the "sweet spot" where you don't get overtaken by 10-5, and whether or not this argument holds water, it did turn out that they decided to agree with me this time.

Now we have to fill M3w. It seems clear that it will be Midorifuji or Takanosho, since they are part of a 3 way tie and Kinbozan isn't going up. I also decided to keep Takayasu's name in play - even though he calculates to M11e, his Komusubi starting point has its advantages and the former Ozeki is a banzuke favorite.

The popular decision here was to go with Takanosho's 10-5, it was the one I posted for math-the-banzuke, it was in my GTB submission, and it was the "correct" choice.

Available points: 30

MTB points: 24. My official GTB points: 28 (I jumped on board with Meisei for fun and profit).

Edited February 26, 2024 by Hoshotakamoto
fixing available points etc ?

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Now is where things decidedly do not go my way. We have to put someone's name in M4w.

It won't be Kinbozan. The next favorite is Midorifuji - do we drop him 2.5 rows for his 5-10?

My thinking on review was that Takayasu might be the wild card here to fill a gaping chasm in the banzuke. If memory serves they basically did agree with my idea to use him exactly this way a couple GTBs ago. Even though Midorifuji calculates to M7e and Takayasu calculates to M11e I thought maybe they'll forgive the 2-4-9 over the 5-10.

But no one agreed with me, least of all the ones making the decisions.

I had Midorifuji M4w and Hiradoumi M5e when I posted publicly. The official decision was to elevate Hiradoumi's 8-7 above Midorifuji's 5-10 and give Hiradoumi the full bump of 4 rows for his 8-7 finish. Because Midorifuji falls to M5e and I had kicked him down to M5w I salvage 1 point in my official GTB submission but the rest of this is a mess.

Now what does this leave? We still need to fill M5w, and the top person available is Kinbozan. He is not moving up. Now we have 5-10 Gonoyama available from M3e and M11e Tsurugisho from 9-6. So of course they officially run with the sexy pick and elevate 11-4 Onosato 10 rows from M15w. Note that this is almost exactly the opposite of anything we've seen in the past few years. I'll pause with M5w filled.

Available points: 38

MTB points: 26. My official GTB points: 31

Shots fired, by the committee.

Edited February 26, 2024 by Hoshotakamoto
forgot I scored 1 point for Midori / fix available points

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

So here's the new lay of the land:

Onosato has fully lapped 9-6 Tsurugisho who had a 4.5 row advantage (maybe that sweet spot wasn't SO sweet). Surely Kinbozan has to uphold his M6e now with the 7-8. Gonoyama is almost certain to be mistreated in comparison to Midorifuji. Takayasu still looms from Komusubi.

From my MTB entry I have Tsurugisho > Kinbozan > Gonoyama, with Tsurugisho's name on the M5 row. From my official GTB entry I have Kinbozan > Gonoyama > Tsurugisho, with Tsurugisho's name on the M7e row.

The Gonoyama pick at M6w cashes in 2 points (this made more logical sense to me with Midorifuji directly above him at M5w), but Tsurugisho at M6e is a total loss for me, and Kinbozan falling to M7e behind Tsurugisho, Onosato, and for that matter Gonoyama just seems petty.

At M7w Tamawashi is an easy pick, which was documented in my MTB post, but of course he landed at M8e in my GTB entry since I had Takayasu above all of these people.

Available points: 46

MTB points: 30. My official GTB points: 33

Edited February 26, 2024 by Hoshotakamoto
fix available points - I got excited

[Reonito 1,613]

51 minutes ago, Hoshotakamoto said:

My thinking on review was that Takayasu might be the wild card here to fill a gaping chasm in the banzuke. If memory serves they basically did agree with my idea to use him exactly this way a couple GTBs ago. Even though Midorifuji calculates to M7e and Takayasu calculates to M11e I thought maybe they'll forgive the 2-4-9 over the 5-10.

Not a lot of recent precedents for a 2-win komusubi, but even with 3 wins, M5w is the highest this century, so such a lenient demotion could only be considered if there were no remotely plausible other candidates for the slot.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

It's not hard to make sense out of the next few official decisions, given what has happened so far.

They do go with Onosho in M8e, and finally Takayasu drops in at M8w, ahead of Hokutofuji, indicating 0.5 slots of sanyaku bias (no big deal - although it is a big deal for my MTB entry since it knocks 4 more points off).

They went with Kotoshoho (M9w) over Shodai (M10e) which was supported by the math although any expectation of joi bias was dashed in the process.

My choices in the official GTB submission to (1) move Takayasu way up to M4, (2) drop Onosho below Hokutofuji, and (3) swap Kotoshoho with Shodai meant I scored 0/8 for M8/M9 (I also lost all the points at M10).

When it came time to break the tie for M10 Mitakeumi's 6-9 (and ozeki past?) prevailed over Ichiyamamoto's 5-10 from a higher spot. I got this wrong in both banzukes where I moved Ichiyamamoto ahead, and did myself no favors by dropping Mitakeumi to M12e in my official GTB entry.

Counting up points through M11e - Ichiyamamoto I get

Available points: 60

MTB points: 36. My official GTB points: 33

Edited February 26, 2024 by Hoshotakamoto
fixed the count

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Ok we're heading into the home stretch of Makuuchi. I'm debating if I've made this too confusing by always putting the graphics below the text. Let's try putting analysis under the graphic.

 

So for M11w our choices look like: (1) break a tie between Sadanoumi and Shonannoumi and put the winner in M11w, (2) Give Shimazuumi the go-ahead for KK (from 5.5 slots further down the banzuke, hmmm), or (3) give Ryuden a nice parachute.

The official decision was to let Sadanoumi the veteran win the tiebreaker and drop 1 spot for 6-9. The decision I posted publicly was to give Shonannoumi the benefit of dropping in from M6w, and the decision I made for GTB was to give Ryuden the parachute and land him here (actually I had Shonannoumi's parachute landing him above all of this and Mitakeumi getting the shaft). I still sortof believe in my Shonannoumi / Ryuden choice, but I guess the takeaway here is that they were willing to go with Mitakeumi and the math this time around instead of letting these guys land softly.

But now the choice is deferred to M12e - so which of the above do we believe in? The committee decided to let Shonannoumi go next since the math supports him above Ryuden and Shimazuumi. Certainly defensible. The impact is that my math post had the right idea but broke the tie wrong, so minus 4 points. My GTB entry gets no soup, for putting Mitakeumi in M12e.

And now the committee goes with M17e Shimazuumi winning the math-tie over M5e Ryuden which I guess means that they hate Ryuden (also defensible). This actually worked out for my GTB entry (having Shimazuumi in exactly the right slot), but only because I was erratic and put Sadanoumi underneath all of them.

Once this bit of craziness is resolved, it is fairly academic to slot in Churanoumi (the 7-8 maegashira) over Nishikifuji (the 10-5 juryo) at M13w/M14e and I got full credit across the board for these two picks, as did I'm sure just about everyone.

Available points down to M14e - Nishifuji: 72

MTB points: 40 (only cashing in the last 2 easy picks), my GTB score: 39 (those last 2 plus Shimazuumi emerging from the chaos I created).

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Let's put a bow on the Makuuchi portion of this retrospective:
 

Kitanowaka sure looks like an easy pick for M14w. And indeed, that pick is cashed in across the board. This is where almost all of my fun ends.

We have a mathematical tie across the board for J1 Daiamami, J3 Roga, and J10 Takerufuji. I argued publicly that Takerufuji is the most deserving - and maybe he is - but no one saw it that way and I didn't even send it off that way. I sent off Daiamami - Roga to GTB and let Myogiryu ahead of Takerufuji (ahead of Endo) and they didn't see it that way either.

They decided to let Myogiryu - almost demoted for having a 5-10 at M12w when there is no M17w - jump the line ahead of these three and claim M15e. Well ok then.

They then went ahead and randomly let Roga jump ahead of Daiamami but also stay ahead of Takerufuji, which I can almost agree with except that not only did they do that but they pulled Endo along for the ride, submerging Daiamami and Takerufuji under the pile.

I can understand Takerufuji coming last place but the rest of this feels totally random.

I scored the point for having Roga in the right spot for GTB, because I had him in 2nd place out of these five jokers, but only 2nd to Daiamami, not 2nd to Myogiryu and ahead of Daiamami and the rest.

And then of course I let Hokuseiho in instead of Endo for the public math post, which doesn't warrant any further discussion.

Final score for math-the-banzuke: 42 out of 84 (50% - the result of many coin flips?). Final score for my official submission: 43 - thanks Roga? Final score for correctly keeping in Endo, Takerufuji, and Myogiryu while keeping out Hokuseiho, Tokihayate, and Tohakuryu: zero. It doesn't always pay to be correct.

 

Stay tuned for juryo analysis on a later date when my wife isn't ready to kill me.

 

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Juryo retrospective - seems that the screen shot I provided above is adequate to kick things off.

I actually have no idea where anyone landed aside from Takarafuji at M1w so I'll be learning this as I go.

Even though I liked Hokuseiho to stick around in division 1 for the math banzuke, it is a clear cut Tokihayate - Tohakuryu starting point. So naturally Tohakuryu's 8-7 finish got him a 0.5 slot improvement from J2w to J2e and Takarafuji was kept around for J1w which is a 2.5 slot drop in the sense that he was the 39th rikishi on the banzuke before and now he's the 44th rikishi on the banzuke. Hokuseiho gets passed over, amusingly, and Mitoryu is kept for J2w. Tomokaze, despite starting a full slot above Takarafuji, lands 2 rows below him on the 5 win vs 6 win outcomes, while Hokuseiho's ghost occupies J3e. So in a nutshell they kicked Hokuseiho down one slot, pushed Tomokaze over to the west side, and swapped Tohakuryu with Takarafuji because bias.

If this had been a GTB scenario, then the "strictly following the math" outcome would have been docked 2 points for Hokuseiho, probably docked 2 points for having Mitoryu in his place, and would have lost 4 points on Tohakuryu / Takarafuji. And this is not counting the fact that my old math posts had Endo occupying the J1e slot (or that my "first iteration of thinking about Juryo" pushed Tokihayate down to J3). At least with the knowledge of which 42 they kept in makuuchi, it was a bit more "obvious" to put Tokihayate in the first available slot. And knowing Hokuseiho was a non entity could have helped some as well.

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

So to summarize the last couple posts, here's the updated official banzuke down to J3.

 

One would think at this point that Kagayaki and Oshoma are obvious picks, with the caveat that Bushozan is likely to catch a parachute ride. Ignoring Bushozan it would make sense to put Hakuyozan at J5e and leave Shirokuma at J5w. So what did they do? (checks notes) Well according to this they went with Kagayaki and Oshoma, and then the Bushozan parachute dropped him in to J5 (so no overpromotions for Shirokuma / Hakuyozan) - Shirokuma got his 1 slot promotion, and then Hakuyozan was underpromoted by half a slot. This means Chiyoshoma will get overdemoted. Does Chiyoshoma slide over to the next spot and disrupt those stacked KK winners? Yep he sure does. Does 10-5 trump 9-6? Yes, Hidenoumi claims J7e and Daishoho has to settle for J7w and the 2 row promotion on a 9-6. The sweet spot (recall Meisei vs Oho) gets another strike against it.

Now let's tally up the predictions that were made from J4e down to J7w. Well Kagayaki and Oshoma were an easy call. My predictions on the "first iteration" were almost exactly what my intuition told me in the first paragraph, so (1) Bushozan was way out in left field (minus 2 points), (2) Shirokuma was a bulls eye ONLY because I had the wrong guy in front of him (2 wrongs make a right), (3) as I mentioned Hakuyozan was on the wrong row, and Chiyoshoma/Daishoho/Hidenoumi were all minus ones for reasons mentioned above. So in total that's a minus 5, or a 3 out of 8. Arguably the banzuke as a whole is a 3 out of 14, or maybe 5 out of 14 if there was another Shirokuma further up.
 

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Moving on down to row 8 - and I'll try to focus on leading with what the committee decided instead of leading with speculation and following up with answers.

 

For J8 they went with the obvious choice of Asakoryu - Shishi, and on J9 Shimanoumi and Tamashoho were underdemoted, with 6-9 winning the tiebreaker vs 4-11, so it's

Asakoryu - Shishi
Shimanoumi - Tamashoho

Shiden is still up next, and Wakatakakage is floating ... they decided to put Shiden in the J10e slot and let Wakatakakage get the J10w spot ahead of Oshoumi's juryo KK. Notice we're still waiting to learn about Aoiyama's parachute which definitely won't fall the whole way through the division.

On the J11 line Oshoumi is awarded the next spot, right behind Wakatakakage, and finally J11w goes to Aoiyama - keeping him ahead of the non-Wakatakakage promotees from Makushita and the folks like Kotoeko and Akua who didn't need to finish out ahead of Aoiyama.

*deep breath* now that that's all been said, how did the math predictions do .... let's see Asakoryu and Shishi was too easy, to the point of being impossible to mess up. On the next 2 rows however it looks like only 2 out of 8 points will be claimed, with Tamashoho / Shimanoumi reversed in the wrong direction and split across Wakatakakage (so Tamashoho costs 1 point, Waka costs 2 points, and Shimanoumi costs 2 points) and then Shiden is placed on the wrong side, well behind Wakatakakage, to drop 1 more point and salvage one.

We finally arrive at the bottom 3 rows, with only 4 rikishi whose names appear on this goofy banzuke (makushitas were severely under promoted for the sake of illustration), so it will likely be those 4 and two wild cards (in fact it's obviously Kitaharima and a Chiyo). But let's save that for the next post...

 

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

I forgot to mention at the bottom of the previous post that I did get Aoiyama in exactly the right spot, but it was another Shirokuma situation where I had him behind Kotoeko and Oshoumi taking a heaping plate of disrespect which thankfully he was not served.

So here's where we are heading into the seeding around the heaven and hell line.

 

So at J12e they had Kotoeko grabbing that first spot (remember I had him at J11e) and then Tsushimanada claims J12w. No major surprise. I did mention that I had Oshoumi way too low, and this is because I thought Akua might be preserved at J12e. He was not.

The J14 row seen above is a faithful rendition of the actual J13 line, and this is appropriate because we only have 26 juryos on this banzuke.

Kitaharima does grab the J14e spot, which is no big surprise, and then if you thought Onokatsu was going to take J14w well then you're crazy, but if you thought Chiyosakae was going to take J14w then you're also crazy but this time you happen to be Right! Poor Chiyomaru has to stay at Ms1e (granted he did bring this upon himself with a record that calculates to Juryo 17 east). And if you heard me say "boy I won't be surprised if Onokatsu falls all the way to Ms2w" then you will be surprised to learn that I am not surprised because Onokatsu did in fact fall to Ms2w. Tenshoho and Yuma do claim the Ms1w and Ms2e (the order of who gets which cannot be in doubt).

[Hoshotakamoto 259]

Before signing off I will scratch the surface of the makushita joi, with the caveat that I believe this is the wrong format for discussing makushita. I think Chiyotasuke's excellent board for illustrating promotion and demotion lengths at each record is the best way to think about makushita and probably sandanme + jonidan as well. I won't opine on Jonokuchi which is ranked by manatees pushing around idea balls.

So I mentioned the 5-10 gang took over the top 1.5 rows of the makushita joi, and Onokatsu had to settle for scraps in Ms2w.
It was back to the 5-10s, as Tochimusashi claimed Ms3e, and then Kayo did parachute into Ms3w which is extremely fair for a 3-4 rikishi.

Daishomaru is not part of the next calculation, but it is 4-3 Kitadaichi who earned Ms4e and then 5-2 Tsukahara in Ms4w. On Ms5 it continues without Daishomaru, as Ms5e/w go to 5-2 rikishi from Ms11w/12e Kotodaigo and Nabatame. No particular good news for 3-4 Satorufuji or 3-4 Kiryuko, however, as Ms6e/w are occupied by 4-3 rikishi from Ms8w/9w Kototebakari and Hokutomaru. The Hokutomaru / Kotokuzan pairing (Ms9w/10e both 4-3)does get split across Satorufuji, who grabs Ms7e while Kotokuzan is relegated to Ms7w. Finally Daishomaru (remember him?) drops in at Ms8e while Kiryuko takes Ms8w. And here is where I'll stop discussing makushita in this format.