Kaio, chiyotaikai and kotomitsuki

[Tony 16]

If Kaio ( jun-yusho + yusho )or Chiyotaikai ( yusho+ 3rd place+ yusho )win Kyushu basho, could be they promoted yokozuna?

And for ozeki Kotomitsuki's promotion ( 7-8, 12-3 and yusho )?

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

If Kaio ( jun-yusho + yusho )or Chiyotaikai ( yusho+ 3rd place+ yusho )win Kyushu basho, could be they promoted yokozuna?

And for ozeki Kotomitsuki's promotion ( 7-8, 12-3 and yusho )?

Well, the easy answer is simply no...

Ozeki-promotion with make-koshi in last three is unprecedented in modern sumo (despite yokozuna promotion with make-koshi in last three is not...) and there is nothing that points to that being changed, even if Kotomitsuki would go 15-0. Of course, if he manages 12 wins or more, he would be in an excellent position to gain promotion following Hatsu, probably only needing 10-5 there.

Yokozuna promotion means two consecutive yusho or equivalent. Chiyotaikai, going 10-5 in Aki is therefore out by default. Kaio could get promotion, if the more lenient interpretation used before about 1990 would come back, since his 12-3 in Aki was a jun-yusho (runner-up). It's unlikely though, even with Takanohana seemingly on his way out, that that will happen. Instead he would set himself up for a promotion after Hatsu, provided he wins there as well.

[Tony 16]

But before,an ozeki who won 37 or 38 bouts on three consecutive basho, could become yokozuna ( Chiyonofuji, Hokutoumi,... ).

Nowadays, win two consecutive yusho is the only way?

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

The rules was the same at that point, only the interpretation differs. For Yokozunas it's the two basho before promotion that is most imortant (as contrary to Ozeki promotion where the three basho before promotion is counting) and has been so for a long time. After Futahaguro was expelled from Ozumo with no yusho in his career in 1987, the interpretation of "two yusho and equivalent" became stricter, so fewer with jun-yusho+jun-yusho or jun-yusho+yusho are approved. The more consecutive Yokozuna who gets promotion by consecutive yusho, the less the chance the old interpretation will come back.

Of course there will always be more consideration than just whether two yusho in-a-row have been achieved, but barring very extreme circumstances, that is currently what is needed.

Both Hokutoumi and Chiyonofuji had jun-yusho plus yusho in their two tournaments before promotion, but after five consecutive yokozunas with the more strict interpretation of consecutive yusho, I doubt the Kyokai will go back now.

[Tony 16]

OK, thanks! It's the reason why Takanonami and Konishiki couldn't become yokozuna!

[Manekineko 200]

Of course, if Takanohana retires soon, and Musa starts suffering average bashos, Kyokai might want to promote a fresh face quickly. In this case I think Chiyo has more chances, since Kaio is more or less Taka and Musa generation, and not in the prime of his youth or health...

So I think Kaio *must* win 2 consecutive yusho (with possible exception a playoff loss to eventual yusho winner) to be promoted, while Chiyo, Azuma or Asashoryu might squeek through on yusho+jun-yusho, high expectations of their future yokozuna careers making up for the 'lack' of qualification.

(Devilish thought)

[Zentoryu 154]

Of course, if Takanohana retires soon, and Musa starts suffering average bashos, Kyokai might want to promote a fresh face quickly. In this case I think Chiyo has more chances, since Kaio is more or less Taka and Musa generation, and not in the prime of his youth or health...

So I think Kaio *must* win 2 consecutive yusho (with possible exception a playoff loss to eventual yusho winner) to be promoted, while Chiyo, Azuma or Asashoryu might squeek through on yusho+jun-yusho, high expectations of their future yokozuna careers making up for the 'lack' of qualification.

I really don't see that happening. The Kyokai was willing to go through a long time without a single Yokozuna between the retirements of Asahifuji and Hokutoumi and the promotion of Akebono. We all know what happened with Konishiki during that time period. And even with only one Yokozuna (Akebono) they still made it exceptionally hard for Takanohana to get promoted.

While that may have been about ten years ago, I don't think the Kyokai will change their policy, just because they don't have a Yokozuna. The two Yusho in a row standard will be required, I think, for Chiyo, Tochiazuma, and Asashoryu.

[Manekineko 200]

Wasn't it announced prior to Aki-basho (Takanohana retirement seemed imminent then) that at least 13 wins and a jun-yusho would be enough for Chiyotaikai to get the tsuna? With sumo popularity in seemingly endless plummet, Kyokai sought to promote a new idol...

[Doitsuyama 1,259]

If Kaio ( jun-yusho + yusho )or Chiyotaikai ( yusho+ 3rd place+ yusho )win Kyushu basho, could be they promoted yokozuna?

And for ozeki Kotomitsuki's promotion ( 7-8, 12-3 and yusho )?

Just one addition: Chiyotaikai most certainly wasn't in third place last basho. To call his 10-5 finish behind 13-2 Musashimaru and three rikishi at 12-3 "third" is bad logic at best (no insult intended).

And I agree, especially for Yokozuna promotion the middle basho of the last three basho is a very important one. So Chiyotaikai is out of the picture. Kaio's last basho had a fine 12-3 jun-yusho as result, but his problem is that he never really was leading the table (= competing for yusho).

Kotomitsuki has the problem of a 7-8 make-koshi and last basho he was only Maegashira. So no chance for an Ozeki promotion. I even think a 12-3 now followed by a 10-5 in the next basho is maybe not enough (but two 11-4 could possibly be, because then there is no weak basho, like in Miyabiyama's case).