Hoshotakamoto

Just kidding about day 9. Day 13 incoming...

Turns out it's hard to finish these at 3am without going right to sleep. Day 9 results will be slightly more relevant, with a decent number of rikishi finding their eventual win-loss differential. Clearly Asakoryu isn't going up to M14.

Day 8 arrived quickly. These are always the least helpful predictions as there is no such thing as ending the basho with a .500 record, or any even W-L differential. Nonetheless, here is the math after 8 days...

Here's the unstacked banzuke and a peek at the feature I was talking about, in action.

Ok here are full results for the end of day 7. The stuff Chiyotasuke added for makushita is really awesome and may potentially make it into the unstacked screenshot since that opens up more screen real estate.

The unstacking was a bit punitive in several cases - this should start to be mitigated with withdrawals coming in (lots of demotions that don't offset wins means it is easier to promote / avoid overdemoting the active rikishi). I also realized my favorite new feature added by Chiyotasuke will only get its chance to shine if I clear out all the records - it thinks there are some 4-win and 5-win rikishi further down the Ms ranks because I didn't bother to update below Ms30. That will be fixed next time.

doesn't a haiku need a reference to seasons i read that somewhere

Ms14w Fujiseiun

Jd61w Taranami

Not sure about the name of that thread - but in any case here I'll be occasionally appending new banzukes based off of the results that came back from old GTB competitions. Two of them were already posted near the bottom of this month's GTB invitation thread.

I've stashed all the player data and basho data from GTB into a google drive and I'll be making sure there isn't another scoring debacle where a 0-0-7 gets credit for a 5-2 finish carried over from their previous basho. There are 22,267 rows of data pulled from the rikishi pages and 13,407 rows pulled from the basho pages. Fun fact: new rikishi are entered in the system after the contest has already been scored and they get IDs from top score to lowest (so the last ID in the system is always the newbie who scored the lowest in the most recent contest, and the next three IDs to be assigned will go to ezequiel, Pepenohana, and sarsan). I'm going to add a little bit more polish to my system, ensure that the error I identified was the only one made so far, and proceed with the new meta banzuke releases soon.

hilariously you did link me to a Daiamami 11-4 basho (although Terunofuji wiped the D off his name) You were responding to "Daiamami is 2-0 vs Terunofuji, what a lad." It reminded me that he (Daiamami, not Teru) is the king of scoring 11-4 (usually D), followed by a letdown.

Did he go 11-4 D and then follow it up with a MK.

placeholder for discussion of 2001 Hatsu - also in light of the error I introduced better tracking to ensure I don't accidentally mix up an 0-0-7 record with some other record

Kicking off 2001 (Hatsu) with an Ozeki yusho. The keen observer would note that if I had brought him up sooner this would finish a yokozuna run. Instead, we may be on hold for a while ... Imanonami throws up a J1e yusho at 12-3 after the 0-0-15 demotion, and there's a little bit left in the tank after this, but it won't be a lot. The results in makushita were abysmal, basically three 0-0-7s and a 3-4 finish. Seigatakaigai posts a strong Sandanme yusho (and is the 15-0 winner of GTB at large) upon returning from a four month hiatus, well, hmmm. Ok so it looks like I only 0-0-7ed this rikishi once and probably awarded a 5-2 instead of a 0-0-7. So maybe it'll be 7-0 yusho from Sd92e instead of 7-0 yusho from Sd12e. That will still be a Makushita promotion, but not to the same landing spot (looking ahead it will probably come out in the wash as I see a lot of demotion on the horizon). Thankfully I don't think this forces me to realign my divisions. Other members of the lower divisions posted strong records and moved up with 7-0s. I'm seeing some more of the early (1998) competitors pop in and out, occasionally post a strong performance, then go away long enough to ensure they have to start from scratch again (years later in many cases). It will be interesting to see more names eventually fill up the top divisions.

placeholder if I end up discussing the actual 2000 Kyushu event

The meta banzuke is out for 2000 Kyushu. Based on results from http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBScoreBasho.aspx?b=200011 Debatable whether or not it should have happened sooner, but there's no debate that a 15-11-13 run (starting at Komosubi) makes Ekigozan the first Ozeki in the game. Would other people have him already at Yokozuna? Perhaps. Will he get there eventually? Probably. Yubiquitoyama is the only other competitor making a run in the top division, as Imanonami's 6-9 at M14 would have been an easy juryo demotion 20 years ago. There is some inconsistency here between current standards and 20-years-ago standards but frankly, the Juryo division needs Imanonami for as long as possible. Which brings us to Chiyonokitaro. The crystal ball tells me it'll be a 2 year wait until Chiyonokitaro makes a comeback for one (strong) tournament. My inclination is to redebut him at Ms60TD for that tournament, after which it'll be another 13 year hiatus, a 9-6 basho, and then permanent (?) retirement. So this is a good chance to establish precedent with an impactful rikishi who is leaving the game. I think Ms60TD makes sense for a 2002 return, and after that, other standards for other eras will probably come into play. As I mentioned, no one claims a Juryo yusho and the division needs all the help it can get. Takokichi arrives after a strong 15-0 (7-0) yusho from Ms59 and a borderline 12-3 (6-1 Y) yusho to move up from Ms7 to J14. Akinomaki slides in with 4-3 from Ms3w, and the previous basho's J14 arrivals (from 4-3 finishes around Ms3-4) get KK to move to the middle of the division. But really the story of this GTB was a powerful showing from the sandanme participants. Kitaseiya was one of several rikishi who changed shikonas in this basho, becoming the 15-0 powerhouse Kotoseiya. Other strong performances from division 4 and 5 set up 2001 to have some nice momentum in the lower ranks. Last I noticed Ullishimaru and Yubinhaad joined GTB and have each booked over 100 appearances in the decades since. This will be fun to watch in meta GTB, and will test some of the hypotheses about incumbent advantage. On a semi-related note meta-GTB says goodbye to Hohoho who will return after 15 years and become a GTB regular again in modern times. Stay tuned!

placeholder for 2000 Aki commentary

Meta banzuke is out for Aki 2000. Based on results from http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBScoreBasho.aspx?b=200009 I realized I could just go in the web console and start knocking out table rows en masse so this will speed up the part of this process that I hate and keep things down to a couple screenshots in the foreseeable future. Ekigozan follows up his 15-7-15 with an 11 so we could move him up to Ozeki now but I'll put him through one more trial so he can have an unblemished run. Sad timing for two of the top rikishi to go kyujo (which I am fully penalizing) - also early GTB frontrunner Imanonami appears to be winding down activity in the game so there won't be a sanyaku run which is unfortunate. I believe Chiyonokitaro is also abandoning the game at or around this juncture so it's a big loss for the meta banzuke. Peeking ahead it looks like Yubiquitoyama is a lock for a run at sanyaku and maybe Ozeki (most recent sumoforum activity ~ 2018). @Akinomakiand @Jejima had a nice run in Aki 2000 to fortify their standings in meta makushita. Despite a couple top sekitori fizzling out there is definitely foreshadowing of the game picking up major steam and I'm glad the technical aspects are continuing to resolve themselves or this would not be finishable before 2027.

placeholder in case I decide to add Nagoya 2000 commentary (this segment has been falling behind lately)

Speaking on behalf of the Pacific Northwest, here's the meta banzuke for Nagoya 2000, based on results from http://sumodb.sumogames.de/gtb/GTBScoreBasho.aspx?b=200007. Ekigozan trying to make the case for a 15-7-15 ozeki run (compelling, but let's let things play out). We lost a sekitori, but the upper makushita ranks are swelling with nice yusho runs in makushita and sandanme for Ookihito and Akinomaki (who I realized after all this time is an active forum member - I'm a bit slow here). Overall this was a pretty balanced run with top-5 finishes spread throughout the meta banzuke. Juryo was the only division that didn't have a champion, and it still looks like they are in good position to add a new maegashira soon.

At this rate I'll be back to a double digit ranking in no time! At this rate I'll be back to a double digit ranking in no time

Well, I haven't had a chance to watch the broadcasts yet but 3 days in it seems reasonable to post a new edition of Math the Banzuke. I can't avoid these spoilers yet since I'm playing sumo game, but I'm omitting anyone in lower Juryo and further down at this time to give myself a chance to watch those matches with fresh eyes. Kirishima and Kotonowaka are receiving the benefit of the doubt although this does introduce some inconsistency as to whether I am saying a 3-0 rikishi should finish 15-0 or 9-6 (for most of the others, the implied finish is 9-6).

Before signing off I will scratch the surface of the makushita joi, with the caveat that I believe this is the wrong format for discussing makushita. I think Chiyotasuke's excellent board for illustrating promotion and demotion lengths at each record is the best way to think about makushita and probably sandanme + jonidan as well. I won't opine on Jonokuchi which is ranked by manatees pushing around idea balls. So I mentioned the 5-10 gang took over the top 1.5 rows of the makushita joi, and Onokatsu had to settle for scraps in Ms2w. It was back to the 5-10s, as Tochimusashi claimed Ms3e, and then Kayo did parachute into Ms3w which is extremely fair for a 3-4 rikishi. Daishomaru is not part of the next calculation, but it is 4-3 Kitadaichi who earned Ms4e and then 5-2 Tsukahara in Ms4w. On Ms5 it continues without Daishomaru, as Ms5e/w go to 5-2 rikishi from Ms11w/12e Kotodaigo and Nabatame. No particular good news for 3-4 Satorufuji or 3-4 Kiryuko, however, as Ms6e/w are occupied by 4-3 rikishi from Ms8w/9w Kototebakari and Hokutomaru. The Hokutomaru / Kotokuzan pairing (Ms9w/10e both 4-3)does get split across Satorufuji, who grabs Ms7e while Kotokuzan is relegated to Ms7w. Finally Daishomaru (remember him?) drops in at Ms8e while Kiryuko takes Ms8w. And here is where I'll stop discussing makushita in this format.