Hoshotakamoto

I posted this in a thread back in March. Here is the updated bracket for Makushita (speculative - a Juryo can always come in and wipe out a chunk of it) after 2 opening rounds of Makushita action.

Lastly gotta close the loop on the winners' bracket.

Here's a summary of all the 6-1 runs not listed above (excluding Kitaharima's runnerup finish to Oshoma). Obviously many of the matchups I forecasted in earlier brackets never came to fruition.

Well, here is the setup for two final day 6-1 runs on opposite ends of Makushita (both of which can be potentially denied by non-Makushita wrestlers). Notice that the winners of course are done - they do not compete against each other :)

Submitting this as the final bracket with apologies to Hoshuzan who is also currently 4-1 and who may get his final 2 wins vs Sandanme opponents. (or maybe this bracket will demand a rematch between Asonoyama and Kiryuko who didn't exactly fight to a finish the first time around...)

The placement of this bracket implicitly makes two assumptions (1) that Kitaharima will not advance to the finals (I've just got a feeling), and (2) that Dewanoryu will advance past Nishinoryu in the one-loss bracket. If those are incorrect guesses then more things have to be moved around (Kanzaki would face someone lower on the banzuke for 5-1 vs 5-1, and Kitaharima cannot face Nishinoryu for a rematch).

Didn't mean to stop posting these last night. The "third" 6-1 bracket. Notice that Tamashoho cannot face the two guys that he already faced from the other side. However I am speculating that Mukainakano will beat Tamashoho anyway and face the winner of Nionoumi / Oshoryu. If Tamashoho wins he will have to find another opponent.

I thought about doing a mini-feature on Tochiseiryu and discussing all the names he has dueled with (starting with a 6-0 vs 6-0 loss to Shodai in Jonokuchi). Might include it below.

Second bracket of one-loss contenders. I presumed that Oshoma would beat Tochiseiryu and relegate Tochiseiryu to face the other 4-1 vs 4-1 winner. On the other hand if Oshoma loses then see the previous post.

Here is the top of several "one-loss" brackets, where obviously Oshoma and Hokuseiho have been appearing all over the place. Notable is the fact that I had to leave two 6-1 runs off of this bracket because they belonged to guys Tomokaze has already beaten, so he will have to get an opponent further down the banzuke (probably Tsurubayashi). Also if Oshoma loses his semi-final it is conceivable that he may face a Chiyosakae or Kinbozan, and if Tomokaze loses his next match then lots of possibilities are open.

Two rounds snuck up on me fast...

Once again I have goofed this up with the assistance of Tokitsukaze. Asonoyama should be facing Ms51 Tokisoma who was moved into a lower matchup on account of Yoshii's involvement in the last round.

Hokuseiho needs to run through a couple more of my favorites! Also I'm realizing I really want to post the 1-loss bracket to keep this fresh and interesting. Is there another post in the forums about that Asonoyama/Kiryuko match?

Yoshii will have to face Nobehara - I missed that one (Tokisoma must face Hakuonada).

EDIT: Thank you @Jakusotsu for fulfilling the request! If anyone wants to see or follow along below I will probably live recap, or I can just delete the thread. === original message === I fell asleep before the day 3 matches started and before I knew which matches would determine my win/loss outcome in the Sumo Game. Would someone mind letting me know which rikishi I picked (Hoshotakamoto) and which rikishi my opponent picked for day 3, while otherwise not telling me the outcome of any matches? The order of picks is important too for tiebreakers. https://www.japan-guide.com/sumo/result.html

Oh my, 9-8 is a hard loss. Yet even if Meisei had won my best hope was a 10-10 tie (I had Takarafuji higher).

Same as I posted under the other wave - I forgot to submit in time, and after a 4-3 debut for my guy in March, would have maybe gone with Jd81w Chiyotsurugi who didn't compete on day 1. But if I'm not eligible for these waves so be it.

Completely forgot to submit an entry. Would have gone with Jd21w Kotokenryu. If he wasn't available after competing on Day 1 then maybe Jd72 Hanafusa who looks like he hasn't competed yet.

I will just say I was impressed. True, it is often easy to roll perfect scores from Sekiwake on up (and I didn't find Komosubi to present a challenge this time either) but there were some places I hit a snag this time around M1 and M4. To your comment about things being more chaotic further down, I visualize the banzuke as a bunch of "clumps" where it is absolutely clear, for example, which 5 guys might land from 24-28 but maybe you can't predict the internal order between them, and then maybe likewise for 21-23, and so on. I think we all knew Kotokuzan was the 41st ranked person on this banzuke and generally knew Chiyomaru and Kagayaki would be next in line (but unsure of the order). And then Meisei and Ishiura are examples of the "floaters" where you can't be totally certain within 1.5-2 slots where they will shake out, so they have to be included in a much larger "clump" than, for example, the 1-man clumps at S1w, S1e, O2w, O1w, O1e, and Y.

Someone suggested that I just feed all of the CSVs of 30 years of banzukes and records into Google's Vertex AI and pay them a few dollars to see how well they can score in GTB.

Well clearly losing to a Komosubi is just unacceptable! EDIT: maybe the new strategy for sniffing out bias should be to look at who gets the most outrageous Day 15 matchup and then fade their chances to get a fair shake in the banzuke.

Well, to spell it out Tochinoshin went +6 instead of +3, Okinoumi went -2.5 instead of -5, Nishikigi went +5.5 instead of +3, Aoiyama went -0.5 instead of -1.0, Chiyoshoma went -3.5 instead of -5, Myogiryu went -1 (vs -1), and Sadanoumi went -4 instead of -5. So it begs the question of why they didn't go a little more lenient on Aoiyama and Myogiryu. EDIT: it's also somewhat egregious as Aoiyama entered day 15 at 7-7 and lost to incoming Komosubi Daieisho to get dropped, whereas Myogiryu entered at 6-8 and beat the extremely-promoted Tochinoshin.

I haven't referred back to the official banzuke but did you get a clean sweep all the way down through M5?

Since I have 5 under my belt and figured out the scoring system I will send out a preview of the July overall rankings to let everyone see their starting position heading into the next contest.

I gave up hope when [the winner] posted a score in here that was 13-14 points higher than my own :)