Hoshotakamoto

You just fork the github repo, which is a single button click. The way it works with git is you have infinite backup history unless you remove save states on purpose so for example it would be very easy for me to recreate what Chiyo had up on his site on November 5th 2022. The only way that all of this can go missing is if Chiyo and I simultaneously go off the grid.

So Hakuho = easier competition for Onosho, no Hakuho = harder competition for Onosato. Makes me think of https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/giffen-good.asp although I can't nail down a direct analogy.

I unstacked them. The 3-3s created some congestion in the makushita joi -- we'll get some clarity when the final records come back.

Day 12 stacks .. don't worry I'm not keeping 8-4 Daieisho on the Sekiwake line...

welp, today I learned there has only been a single 7-8 J14w since I started following the sport (and I don't remember this rikishi)

Unstacking them, I decided to entertain the prospect of a 4-sekiwake lineup since Daieisho is looking pretty strong (he did also win 5 out of 6 KK at Sekiwake in recent memory, even if that's not supposed to be factored in). As a result the promotions and lack of demotions below S look pretty generous and should be taken with several grains of salt. Once you get to Juryo, of course, the effect is nullified, and once again everything felt pretty generous, but in this case the seeding outcomes are actually plausible since they don't rely on any unlikely assumptions (of course what we're used to seeing is that the top division demotees parachute in at the expense of those returning to Juryo, so Mitoryu, Takerufuji, Tsurugisho, and Tomokaze should expect better treatment than I'm giving them). When I reached the bottom, there was a big gap, so I started filling in Fujiseiun, Kiryuko et al but then decided the more likely case is that Tsushimanada at 6-9 or Kazekeno at 7-8 would get to stay, so those took precedence over, in this case, Kiryuko.

Stacks after day 11. I know it's not the first day I've had Shonnanoumi ahead of Gonoyama but it gives me a chuckle when comparing* their banzuke luck since they came up from Juryo-1. * with the acknowledgment that banzuke luck is a self-correcting system so Shonannoumi had harder competition in each basho than his record from the previous basho would predict.

Kawazoe was probably the wrong pick.

I probably meant to slot Nabatame in Ms1e -- interesting clustering of Nabatame, Kiryuko, Kazekeno, and Fujiseiun (although I doubt there will be any ambiguity over their final ordering after 7 days of competition).

The day 10 stacks unpacked to something like this. I had to fix Shirokuma's position that was probably the result of an errant click-and-drag.

Possibly motivated by my day 9 mistakes, as well as the dearth of 5-5 records, I decided to go ahead and fill out the banzuke post-day 10.

Well, that's a huge bummer. On the other hand it's good to hear you didn't have a bad day and decide to take all your stuff down. Hakkeyoi!

Here's a hasty unpacking of the stacks. I noticed that I had failed to move Onokatsu to 8-1, so 5-2 represents his record from the previous basho. Hakuoho should also have the rest of his losses factored in if I was being consistent with my usual practice. I was prepared to start allowing overdemotions this month since the banzuke makers have made it clear that they are more than ok with overdemoting, at the expense of my mocked GTB score. However with all the injuries causing rikishi to pull out of this tournament, I won't be surprised if we make it through the next exercise with zero overdemotions. If I get a day 11 banzuke out after tonight, I'll be sure to factor Fujiseiun into the equation.

Hmm, I wonder what's going on. Github did take down github.com slash hoshotakamoto last summer without warning and it took about a month for them to decide to go ahead and reinstate it, so this could be one of those situations (but chiyotasuke has a much longer established history with that repo, so I'm not sure). Hope everything is ok there. I don't have the H2H site or know anything about it but I do have enough mirrored copies of the gtbhelper laying around to create my own banzuke ranking the copies. Without any further ado these are the calculated placements of the rikishi before the start of Day 10. Apologies to Fujiseiun who is hopefully fighting his way straight back into Juryo.

So are Endo (35-5) and Takerufuji (13-2) the greatest Juryo fighters of all time?

Ms59e Oyamada

J14w Kazekeno and I'll just be so sad if he finishes behind tsukahara

Ms18w Dewanoryu

Ms14w Kaisho

Sd84e Kawazoe

Sd66e Oki

Kicking off this month's MTB at the end of day 6 Juryo - everyone in divisions 1 and 3 had an odd number of matches, and in Juryo we took all 6 results since it's a fairly vanilla calculation to place these rikishi. Prior to unstacking, these are the calculated positions.

But also to this point Hokaho showed up to compete in 1 match and got considerably better treatment than Amakaze. I would have never guessed he'd fall to Sandanme - maybe I should have.

yeah i should have said 0-0-7 is an automatic -40 (in this case -40.5, which even in this case is a tad unusual), and then they seem to build around this with the relatively predictable moves for 6-1, 5-2, 4-3, 2-5 In my projection I was demoting Kotodaigo 24.5 and Tochi 40.0

I wonder if Amakaze is bothered by his placement or it just comes out in the wash after another 7 bouts.