Hoshotakamoto

This latest installment of Math The Banzuke is going to be a little different. I'll still post screenshots of where rikishi are on pace to land in September based on their current wins and losses. However there's a new wrinkle which is that the Claude GPT competitor has made it very easy to build sleek web pages so I might do some experimental UI along the way.

Jd25e Seihakuho. This can't go worse than Kawazoe...

Ms11w Tenshoho

might as well go with Ms9w Kaisho

My first time falling out of Juryo, and the option was there to move up with Tochitaikai I'll take the consistent Ms2e Daiseizan to bring me back up.

I was planning to do this much sooner, posting a new mid-basho speculative GTB entry, but before I get started - is @Chiyotasuke's official page down for everyone or just me? I have a mirror of it available to resurface as needed, but I wasn't sure of the status...

It's certainly the case that once I put in the 14-1 or 13-2 Juryo everything goes haywire. For this particular banzuke there wasn't a ton of flexibility on where to place Wakamotoharu and Takayasu, so the math couldn't really be penalized by those two, but if Asanoyama had registered a couple wins to place him in the "consistent" zone then he probably would have made the math banzuke more chaotic / incorrect in his proximity. So in that regard the math banzuke got lucky down to the point where it always has issues with the incoming Juryo winners.

Sadly for me, I never posted a Juryo or Makushita prediction post day-15. Let's see how the rikishi fared after the final 4 days (i.e. here is the prediction I posted on the first page of the thread after day 11). Starting at the top: Roga improved from 4-7 to 7-8 and was allowed to stay in M15w, while Tokihayate (6-9) fell into the J1e slot. Tohakuryu fell from 6-5 to 6-9 and plummeted from J1w to J5e. Onokatsu finished out 3-1 and slid up half a slot to take over J1w. Takerufuji parachuted to J2e. Mitoryu missed 4 days of competition and dropped from J2w to J3w, while Daiamami finished 2-2 and slid up to J2w. Kitanowaka grinded out an 8-5-2 finish after sitting at 4-5-2, improving from a -2 demotion to a +2.5 promotion to J3e. Tsurugisho lost 4 more matches to finish 3-12 and fall from J4e to J5w. Asakoryu stayed put at J4w with a 2-2 finish for 7-8. Shimanoumi finished 1-3 and dropped 1 spot to J6e (classic Shimanoumi) with a 9-6 that pales next to his 8-3 start. Tomokaze ate 4 more losses in the top division and fell 1.5 slots all the way to J7e from M16e. Probably unreasonable to hope that he can make it all back in one basho. Tamashoho dropped half a slot from J6e to J6w as 7-4 backed into an 8-7 kachi-koshi. Speaking of backing in, Daishoho finished 2-2 and landed 2.5 spots higher than my J6w prediction, as 5-10 cost him 1.5 slots on the banzuke. Why exactly was he 1.5 slots better than Tsurugisho? Myogiryu finished 1-3 and dropped another 1.5 slots to J8w with a 3-12 demotion from J1w. Shirokuma stays at J8e with a 2-2 finish for 6-9 and a 2 slot demotion. Hidenoumi finished 1-3 and dropped half a slot to J9e for a 6-9 1-slot demotion. Shiden finished out 2-2 to secure his kachi-koshi and a career high ranking of J7w. You can bet he's happy to be moving up in Juryo. Hakuyozan finished out 0-4 for a disappointing 6-9 finish and a 1.5 slot demotion vs the 1 slot promotion predicted. Shishi finished 1-3 but stayed at my predicted J10e / 3 slot deomotion after 4-7 became 5-10. Aoiyama finished out 1-3 for a disappointing 7-8 and stayed at J11w instead of moving up. Shimazuumi finished 1-3 but he took J10w and a 3 slot demotion after a 5-8-2 record. Tochitaikai got 2-2 and the 8-7 Kachi Koshi for a new high ranking at J11e. Kayo and Nabatame each finished out 5-2 and Fujiseiun took yusho but of course they all slid behind Hakuoho after he came back and got his 4th and 5th wins. Tsushimanada finished 3-1 for a 7-8 record that held him steady at J12w. Chiyosakae finished 2-2 for 6-9 overall and a 0.5 slot demotion from J9e to J9w.

I'll just lay it out there, from M11e - M13e I had the math like: Wakatakakage - M11 - Midorifuji (this line is cursed) Nishikigi - M12 - Hokutofuji Churanoumi - M13 while I officially submitted: Midorifuji - M11 - Nishikigi Churanoumi - M12 - Hokutofuji Asanoyama - M13 So where did they put Asanoyama? They went with: Ichiyamamoto - M11 - Nishikigi Asanoyama - M12 - Churanoumi Hokutofuji - M13 So they gave Hokutofuji's 7-8 the 1.5 rank demotion which is disappointing but I guess a lot of people might have guessed it. My official submission gets my 1 point for Churanoumi and 2 points for Nishikigi while the other 7 are gone. And the math the banzuke post goes 0-10 meaning the final score is: Math the Banzuke: 53/84. My edited submission: 54/84 after completing a monster comeback from 12 points behind and narrowly avoiding make-koshi in GTB (but just following the math would have also gotten me the 8-7. Better yet, sticking to the math right up until it placed Wakatakakage way higher than they ever intended to promote him from Juryo).

All right, I'm going to share a fun piece of trivia. My miserable official submission is actually spot on from Takarafuji all the way to the bottom. That's M13 - Takarafuji Wakatakakage - M14 - Endo Chiyoshoma - M15 - Roga Kagayaki - M16 - Bushozan Nishikifuji - M17 So pile on 16 points to move up to 51/74. In contrast, my Math prediction had ... (Wakatakakage way too high) M13 - Takarafuji (good) Endo - M14 - Chiyoshoma (um) Asanoyama (oh , right) - M15 - Kagayaki (oh no) Bushozan - M16 - Roga Nishikifuji - M17 so 10 points went missing. It's now 53/74 (math) to 51/74 (official guess) heading into the final stretch from M11e-M13e.

Once I get to M7w I found no reason to deviate from the math prediction (and considering the results I probably shouldn't have deviated above this line). In any case I stuck with M7 - Sadanoumi Ryuden - M8 - Oshoma Kinbozan - M9 - Tamawashi Shodai - M10 - Ichiyamamoto I'm feeling a little bit nervous about the placement of Midorifuji and Nishikigi, while of course Asanoyama can give me a lot of problems. Let's see the reveal... Ok so they had Kinbozan ahead of Oshoma (Sadanoumi and Ryuden were correct). And then I had Ichiyamamoto too high (Tamawashi and Shodai were correct). So I lose 4 pts for the Kinshoma switch (Oshbozan?) and I keep 8/14 while losing 2 on M10w. Math: 47/58, Official: 35/58 (Y to M10w).

Shoot, I had a few paragraphs going here and I lost them. I'll just speed recap what happens down to M7e Math prediction up above: Onosho - M5 - Oho Shonannoumi - M6 - Takanosho Kotoshoho - M7 My official submission (with Takanosho and Shonannoumi already taken off the board) Kotoshoho - M5 - Ura Onosho - M6 - Tobizaru Oho - M7 And the official banzuke (with Ura and Tobizaru already taken off the board) Onosho - M5 - Shonannoumi Takanosho - M6 - Oho Kotoshoho - M7 So basically Oho was too high in the math prediction and I spotted this and moved him too low in my submission. Full credit (4/4) for Onosho and Kotoshoho in the math banzuke, 1/6 for the cycle permutation of Oho - Shonannoumi - Takanosho, and my official submission was just chaos where I lost all 10 of these points. On the bright side, the committee, the math, and my banzuke all agree on which 22 rikishi are ranked higher than M7w. Math: 39/44, Official: 27/44 (Y to M7e).

With Takayasu and Gonoyama I ended up keeping them planted on the M3 line. Officially ... that is correct. Math: 30/30, Official: 27/30 (Y to M3w). Continuing on, I put Mitakeumi and Takanosho on the M4 line in my official submission, where the math prediction was Tobizaru and Ura. For my official submission I gave Tobizaru the full demotion to M6w, lower than Onosho, while Kotoshoho received a generous promotion... At this point, knowing that Mitakeumi is at M2 for certain now, I am slightly pro-Takanosho for these spots, although I could see the math prediction playing out (especially if there is a Math The Banzuke fan on the committee, which, why shouldn't there be). Let's do the reveal... and it's Tobizaru and Ura. Math: 34/34, Official 27/34 (Y to M4w).

Starting from the top -- I left everything where I think the correct outcomes would be, down through Meisei and Atamifuji. I got flustered by the situation with Mitakeumi / Takanosho / Kotoshoho (see above where I have Mitakeumi and Takanosho 4 rows apart) and I played with moving Wakamotoharu up and down. Ultimately I got radical and pushed Shonannoumi up to M2e and put Wakamotoharu in M2w, with Mitakeumi falling next to Takanosho on the M4 line. Feels unlikely that Shonannoumi is actually M2e. Let's do the reveal.... and my initial intuition (above) was correct. Wakamotoharu in M2e (which still feels crazy) and Mitakeumi in M2w. So I collect my 22 free points down through M1e and throw away 3 out of 4 points I should have had at M2. Math: 26/26, Official: 23/26 (Y to M2w)

I haven't even seen the new banzuke and the only thing I know about my official submission (which was substantially different from what I posted above) is that it was 8-7, so I'll live-react to the 3-way discrepancies as I scan from top to bottom...

Looking at discrepancies like M4e 6-9 (-> M7e vs -> M5w) doesn't a fair amount of this consideration have to do with whether or not that position was in the joi?

@KintamayamaI have emailed you a screenshot of my online form submission at 17:36 GMT (I'm sure the accuracy of my predictions will render this a moot point, but I didn't want to take 2 consecutive kyujo). If there's any interest in taking a direct submission from chiyo's form to your database I'd be happy to try and facilitate that in the next two month iteration. EDIT: I was closing out tabs 12 minutes later and happened to re-submit which succeeded this time, ten minutes before the deadline. So I see my name on the list of submissions now. 1) the offer still stands to help facilitate the submission process 2) after you submit, the light green text flashes your email address that is not the same address where email goes if I click the link at the bottom (I am pretty sure the link at the bottom is the correct email, but the email that shows up in the light green text is probably your inbox that died a few years back).

I left it to the last minute because I was working on other projects last week.

The website says 13:00 EST which is in 19 minutes, or 18:00 GMT which is 1 hour and 19 minutes from now. Do I have an hour to submit?

I will correct my mistakes from the previous basho. Count me in.

What are the chances that search will ever improve on this forum? If I search for "Onosato Ochiai" I have a reasonable expectation that it will surface the poll on when Onosato might ever pass Ochiai on the banzuke. If I search for "banzuke surfing" I don't expect to see any results that aren't banzuke surfing threads. I know it's a big project to cut over but has there been discussion on this in recent years?

I'm willing to concede that Asanoyama will not drop this low :)

Is there a discussion in one of the forums about whether or not the "anti-climactic" final match kicked off a yokozuna run?

Here's the last thing I'll post for the top division. Very interesting possibilities for Wakamotoharu and Mitakeumi... after this the focus is on Juryo and below

Here are the stacks after day 15, taking advantage of the excellent UI refresh from @Chiyotasuke I've placed Onosato's name above Abi because of the 2 win discrepancy, but I'll unpack them in the opposite direction based on my hunch that Abi will receive a promotion. Likewise Hiradoumi at S2e is just an acknowledgment that 3 ranks above M2 is Sekiwake, even though it's extremely rare that this "3 rank" promotion comes to fruition (we all know that the only way to get to Sekiwake with a 9-6 is to start at M6e). After I do this preliminary exercise I'll abandon the top division and potentially make the effort to do a makushita banzuke that is consistent with the promotions from the previous basho.