Gurowake

Intended as a repository of pointless bits of trivia I or others find, particularly while browsing the database. It happens a lot between basho. In a total of 5 basho since the 15-day era began, the last match was between two undefeated rikishi. Twice it was Taiho vs. Kashiwado, and they split the matches. All matches featured Y1e. No such match was a playoff (theoretically possible between stable members). Harumafuji is the only one to appear in such a bout that was not a Yokozuna at the time. No other Day-15 matches involving 2 14-0 rikishi have occurred. In Haru 1996, there was a 6-0 match in Jonidan on Day 15, but two other rikishi were also 7-0 from previous days. Incidentally, a few basho in each direction in that time period there were many Day-14 6-0 matches in the lower divisions, but none that basho and one on Day 15 instead. Only one Day-14 6-0 match took place outside that 1995-1996 window.

If they were really interested in having the heya separate soon, they could have Ishiura take over the current Isegahama and have Terunofuji branch out with everyone but the Miyagino guys next year. Since they could have done this instead of having Terunofuji take over the heya as of Asahifuji's retirement, they don't seem too interested in that. They could probably figure out a way to have Ishiura move the premises of the "old" heya to allow Terunofuji's "new" heya to use the same premises Isegahama has been using, were that a concern. Maybe just having Ishiura in charge of both for even a few months was not reasonable, but they can still do that switch in a few months when Terunofuji can branch out. Maybe they just don't allow this kind of end-run around the branch out rules. Takarafuji (who has enough Makuuchi basho to branch out) could theoretically take on the Miyagino rikishi when/if he were to branch out, but that wouldn't be any time soon. I'm guessing the vacant Kiriyama kabu is lined up for him now to retire soon given that Asahifuji now has Miyagino to use for the next 5 years.

Right now the forum is informing me that it's Hokuseiho's birthday currently (or tomorrow in the western areas of the world). I don't think that's particularly useful now. I think there might be others that are probably not so useful to be on that calendar, and perhaps new ones that need to be added. It's clearly in need of some attention.

Kagayaki now has two birthdays showing.

Not that I expect any of these alternative scenarios to happen, but I went over the various possibilities for Komusubi in terms of what doesn't actually break the fundamental rules. It's possible that they decide not to promote WTK, but that seems rather unlikely not just in precedent but also that he (probably) has the best shot at Ozeki promotion next basho, assuming he's Sekiwake, compared to the other two Sekiwake. I'd only discount him 1 win for starting at M1, while he has 2 more than the other Sekiwake over the last two tournaments. It's also possible that they decide to keep Takayasu as a Komusubi, but that's never happened any time recently (if ever) with a 6-9 K1e. Assuming that there is at least one Komusubi spot open, the only two options for the first one are Oshoma and Aonishiki, so unless both of those rather unlikely things happens above, one of them will make their debut. If they somehow select Aonishiki for the first spot, then Oshoma has to get the second slot, if it exists. If Oshoma is the first one promoted, which is more likely, then in theory they could choose Hakuoho or Onokatsu rather than Aonishiki for the second slot. Neither of these guys have any compelling reason to be taken over Aonishiki that could be used to ignore the general by-the-numbers approach, and it would be a huge curveball to choose Hakuoho, but Onokatsu isn't as much of a stretch. If they're going to be unwilling to give Aonishiki the spot if they can find someone with a bit more Makuuchi experience, Onokatsu would be a reasonable call, but being at his highest rank last basho makes it unlikely that they'd consider the few basho of extra Makuuchi experience to really be worth anything. That Onokatsu backed into his 10-5 without facing any sanyaku while Aonishiki faced 3 of them makes it even less compelling to ignore the by-the-numbers approach, though that does make the case slightly more compelling for Hakuoho who faced 4, and who I feel was hard-done by the schedulers, and they can make it up to him by giving him an outsized promotion since there's no one else above him but below sanyaku with a KK other than Oshoma, though to Komusubi West still feels like too much of a stretch. So sure, there are things that they might decide to do rather than make Aonishiki a Komusubi in a shattering of the speedrun record from Maezumo, but there really aren't any compelling reasons for them to do that. If Tobizaru had won his last match, I would have been mentioning him getting a promotion as a possibility just as someone with sanyaku experience with a KK high enough to legally be able to be promoted ahead of Aonishiki, but even then it would have been a big stretch, and with Tobizaru losing the match, it's definitely not happening. I suppose though since it would have meant a loss by WTK it would have made not promoting the latter a bit more palatable, so it would have been slightly more reasonable to expect a second spot not actually opening, but 11 win K->S is firmly established.

Yeah, the disconnect is that Juryo promotions are going to be decided on by the entire judging department, while the torikumi are certainly not going to be. It's very easy to be able to take a vote on all the important things once the results are finalized, but it's somewhat more difficult to assess what might happen depending on certain choices of torikumi and their results, so whichever of the shimpan are creating the torikumi will have some opinion, and that need not be shared by the entire department. Even the whole idea that there's a regimented way of determining who will be promoted is likely not something that's 100% true, as much as we'd like it to be. Each Oyakata likely has their own ideas, and as long as they're abiding by the fundamental rules of making a banzuke, those ideas need not be consistent from section to section of the banzuke, let alone basho to basho. When you consider the dozens of people involved in the decisions, it's going to have irregularities all over the place given the relative lack of hard-and-fast rules.

It's not something that's going to be found on the Sumo DB. But it is in the lead paragraph of Wikipedia's article for him.

I was going to say during the promotion thread, but I didn't want to butt in with my comments that are increasingly wrong, that I wondered if the debutant aspect of the exchange would work again Kyokukaiyu here. That's often something that appears to go against such rikishi when things are close. It's possible someone could go back and look at the times that there were similar ties and see if all of those times the promotee was someone who had already been in Juryo. If there previously had been someone making a debut on a tie, then I guess that's yet another time that I'll be wrong about something.

That's the thing given the disconnect between the torikumi makers and the banzuke makers. The former have no way to force the exchange matches that they set up to actually be exchange matches. They may have used the same logic to try to figure out what the banzuke makers were going to do, as it seemed fairly clear to me at least that the two Ms-J matches on senshuraku were true exchange matches so long as they were willing to demote Miyanokaze in favor of Kyokukaiyu. Certainly it's not like they had better options available to make the matches, but if Miyanokaze wasn't going down with a loss, they could have put Kotokuzan against someone else for him to fight for his berth and not make it look like a clear exchange match. That would have looked a little silly, but it would have given better insight as to their thinking about promotions. So long as the disconnect remains between the two groups, the torikumi makers will continue to make matches that seem most appropriate, but might not end up being true exchange matches even though they look like they might be. Or maybe I'm just completely wrong and am missing something obvious.

If I'm reading this correctly, it would be somewhere around 14 years * 6 basho/year * 70 sekitori * 10,000 = 58.8 million. Google says that's around USD 400,000.

From as best as I can tell doing research starting from the Wikipedia list of Makuuchi speedruns from Maezumo, the previous record for rise to san'yaku from Maezumo was 14 basho, held by Kotooshu, Konishiki, and Asashoryu. Aonishiki is (presumably) going to get there in 11.

Ozeki Chishafuwaku scored an overall Yusho, marking the beginning of a Yokozuna run. He will need a 13-win tournament or Makuuchi Yusho before having less than 10 wins for promotion. Ozeki Sakura took the tournament off, with kosho rules preventing her from going kadoban. Sekiwake Oortael gains more than the required number of wins and is promoted to Ozeki. Sekiwake Pandaazuma has a good score and after his KK last basho following Ozeki demotion, he's now back up for Ozeki promotion the hard way, needing 10 wins. Norizo, Frinkanohana, and Bunbukuchagama move up from Komusubi to Sekiwake with strong scores. The first two also only need 10 wins for promotion as well, while the latter needs a minimum of 11.95. However, with 3 Ozeki already and 4 Sekiwake on a promotion run, there will be increases to the win requirements due to crowding if at least 2 hit their nominal target. I don't want to explicitly put all the possibilities, but the number of wins over the last two tournaments for those with a 10-win basic requirement are Pandaazuma 20.62, Norizo 23.83, and Frinkanohana 21.01, each Ozeki beyond 3 increases the total number of wins needed by 1, and the normal requirement in 3 basho is 30 wins. Joaoiyama also had a good enough score to move up to Sekiwake from Maegashira, but with an MK last basho is not up for promotion. The Komusubi spots are filled with the next two best maegashira, Flohru and Andoreasu. Chishafuwaku(Ow, 15 wins) O Sakura(Oe, kosho) Oortael(S2e, 12.77 wins) O2 Pandaazuma(Se, 12.03 wins) S Norizo(K2e, 13.44 wins) Frinkanohana(Ke, 12.03 wins) S2 Bunbukuchagama(K2w, 10.47 wins) S3 Joaoiyama(M4w, 13.59 wins) Flohru(M1e, 9.65 wins) K Andoreasu(M5e, 9.88 wins) BlackPinkMawashi(M10e, 12.52 wins) M1 Kobashi(M9e, 11.81 wins) Kintamayama(M2w, 7.51 wins) M2 Oskahanada(M11e, 12.72 wins) Metzinowaka(M15w, 14.04 wins) M3 ScreechingOwl(Sw, 0.97 wins) Kajiyanosho(M7w, 7.85 wins) M4 Hisui(M2e, 3.04 wins) Choshu-yuki(M1w, 2.45 wins) M5 Kaito(M11w, 9.63 wins) Next-ozeki-ura(M6e, kosho) M6 Athenayama(Kw, 0 wins) Hakuryuho(M6w, 6.98 wins) M7 Konya ga Yamada(M8w, 7.51 wins) Bill(M4e, 2.52 wins) M8 Susanoo(M8e, 6.18 wins) Torafujii(M3e, 0 wins) M9 Kotononami(M3w, 0 wins) Balon(J5e, 12.68 wins) M10 Asapedroryu(M10w, 7.15 wins) Gaijingai(J7w, 13.64 wins) M11 Beeftank(M7e, 4.46 wins) Asashosakari(M12e, 7.2 wins) M12 Kachikoshi(M17e, 9.58 wins) Wamahada(M14w, 8.21 wins) M13 Kaiowaka(J4w, 11.72 wins) Mariohana(M14e, kosho) M14 Terarno(M16e, 8.82 wins) Ketsukai(M5w, 0 wins) M15 Warusaru(J7e, 11.84 wins) Kitakachiyama(M12w, 5.57 wins) M16 Gusoyama(M13e, 5.02 wins) Kuroimori(J4e, 8.8 wins) J1 Fujisan(J3w, 8.4 wins) Kamibaka(J2e, kosho) J2 Unagiyutaka2(J12w, 12.68 wins) Saruyama(J3e, kosho) J3 Hogashi(J1w, 7.04 wins) Itchynotoe(M9w, 0 wins) J4 GONZABUROW(J6w, 9.2 wins) Anjoboshi(J6e, 8.6 wins) J5 Achiyama(J2w, 6.72 wins) Andonishiki(J1e, 5.72 wins) J6 Papayasu(J8w, 9.2 wins) Ganzohnesushi(M13w, 0 wins) J7 TochiYESshin(Ms4e, 12.49 wins) KakushoyamaII(J13e, 9.68 wins) J8 Joputosu(J5w, 5.88 wins) Gansekiiwa(J9w, 7.52 wins) J9 Unkonoyama(M16w, 0 wins) Shatsume(Ms2w, 10.96 wins) J10 Tetsukabe(Ms4w, 11.9 wins) Gaanaa(J9e, 7.04 wins) J11 CaptSmarta$$(J10e, 7.48 wins) Oyama(Ms1e, 9.86 wins) J12 WAKATAKE(Ms1w, 9.54 wins) Arawaka(J8e, 5.72 wins) J13 Kōrinokoishi(M15e, kyujo) Tyerenex(Ms6w, 10.21 wins) J14 Kyodaitimu(J14w, kosho) Profomisakari(Ms6e, 9.62 wins) Ms1 Kiriazuma(J10w, 4.4 wins) Takanorappa(J13w, 5.76 wins) Ms2 BlindOzekiMcTell(Ms8e, 9.93 wins) Ruziklao(Ms3e, kosho) Ms3 Yarimotsu(J14e, 5.92 wins) Zannah(J12e, 4.36 wins) Ms4 Anjinsan(Ms11w, 10.6 wins) Edamamejin(J11e, 1 win) Ms5 Terukaze(Ms5e, 6.83 wins) Hironoumi(Ms2e, 5.26 wins) Ms6 Gustl(Ms12w, 10.25 wins) Multimikstar(Ms16e, 11.7 wins) Ms7 Akagitsune(Ms15w, 11.39 wins) Doreikishi(Ms10e, 8.17 wins) Ms8 Ippikiōkami(Ms3w, 3.97 wins) Hagamachikuni(Ms14e, 8.87 wins) Ms9 Tetsuarashi(New, 10.52 wins) Golynohana(J11w, kyujo) Ms10 Shimodahito(Ms17w, 8.17 wins) Rikioi(New, 8.44 wins) Ms11 Akishiki(Ms11e, 6.75 wins) Nantonoyama(Ms9e, 4.16 wins) Ms12 Gatakiriba(Ms13e, 6.4 wins) Kishikaisei(Ms9w, 2.79 wins) Ms13 Furanohana(Ms8w, 1.41 wins) EdwardUrahara(Ms10w, 3.34 wins) Ms14 Hakunojo(Ms12e, 3.77 wins) Rowitoro(Ms13w, 3.77 wins) Ms15 Oshirokita(Ms5w, kyujo) Stusan(Ms15e, 3.14 wins) Ms16 Taliesin(Ms7e, kyujo) Randomaru(Ms17e, kosho) Ms17 Jimizakura(Ms14w, 2.04 wins) Jejima(Ms7w, kyujo) Ms18 Jikoshima(New, 5.38 wins) MeikeT(New, 3.85 wins) Ms19 RaeucherLax(New, 3.77 wins) Ika Arashi(New, 3.46 wins) Ms20 Netsuzakura(Ms16w, kyujo) Bg

Nope. I'm done with this game (and GTB). I'm just not interested anymore.

Results: Top score = 1587 Top half of Makuuchi median = 1486 - step size = 13.4666... Player Score Wins Chishafuwaku 1587 15 Joaoiyama 1568 13.59 Norizo 1566 13.44 Oortael 1557 12.77 Frinkanohana 1547 12.03 Pandaazuma 1547 12.03 Bunbukuchagama 1526 10.47 Andoreasu 1518 9.88 Flohru 1515 9.65 Kintamayama 1486 7.51 Hakuryuho 1479 6.98 Hisui 1426 3.04 Bill 1419 2.52 Choshu-Yuki 1418 2.45 ScreechingOwl 1398 0.97 Torafujii 1369 0 Kotononami 1366 0 Athenayama 1350 0 Ketsukai 1320 0 Bottom Half of Makuuchi median = 1439 - step size = 19.7333... Player Score Wins Metzinowaka 1568 14.04 Oskahanada 1542 12.72 BlackPinkMawashi 1538 12.52 Kobashi 1524 11.81 Kaito 1481 9.63 Kachikoshi 1480 9.58 Terarno 1465 8.82 Wamahada 1453 8.21 Kajiyanosho 1446 7.85 Konya ga Yamada 1439 7.51 Asashosakari 1433 7.2 Asapedroryu 1432 7.15 Susanoo 1413 6.18 Kitakachiyama 1401 5.57 Gusoyama 1390 5.02 Beeftank 1379 4.46 Itchynotoe 1284 0 Ganzohnesushi 1282 0 Unkonoyama 1183 0 Juryo Median = 1399.5 - Step size = 25 Player Score Wins Gaijingai 1553 13.64 Unagiyutaka2 1529 12.68 Balon 1529 12.68 Warusaru 1508 11.84 Kaiowaka 1505 11.72 KakushoyamaII 1454 9.68 GONZABUROW 1442 9.2 Papayasu 1442 9.2 Kuroimori 1432 8.8 Anjoboshi 1427 8.6 Fujisan 1422 8.4 Gansekiiwa 1400 7.52 CaptSmarta$$ 1399 7.48 Hogashi 1388 7.04 Gaanaa 1388 7.04 Achiyama 1380 6.72 Yarimotsu 1360 5.92 Joputosu 1359 5.88 Takanorappa 1356 5.76 Arawaka 1355 5.72 Andonishiki 1355 5.72 Kiriazuma 1322 4.4 Zannah 1321 4.36 Edamamejin 1237 1 Makushita Median = 1396 - step size = 25.4666... Player Score Wins TochiYESshin 1523 12.49 Tetsukabe 1508 11.9 Multimikstar 1503 11.7 Akagitsune 1495 11.39 Shatsume 1484 10.96 Anjinsan 1475 10.6 Tetsuarashi 1473 10.52 Gustl 1466 10.25 Tyerenex 1465 10.21 BlindOzekiMcTell 1458 9.93 Oyama 1456 9.86 Profomisakari 1450 9.62 WAKATAKE 1448 9.54 Hagamachikuni 1431 8.87 Rikioi 1420 8.44 Shimodahito 1413 8.17 Doreikishi 1413 8.17 Terukaze 1379 6.83 Akishiki 1377 6.75 Gatakiriba 1368 6.4 Jikoshima 1342 5.38 Hironoumi 1339 5.26 Nantonoyama 1311 4.16 Ippikiōkami 1306 3.97 MeikeT 1303 3.85 Rowitoro 1301 3.77 RaeucherLax 1301 3.77 Hakunojo 1301 3.77 Ika Arashi 1293 3.46 EdwardUrahara 1290 3.34 Stusan 1285 3.14 Kishikaisei 1276 2.79 Jimizakura 1257 2.04 Furanohana 1241 1.41

Ozeki Chishafuwaku scores an MK and is kadoban. Previous Ozeki Pandaazuma fails in his bid to return to Ozeki quickly but remains at Sekiwake. Since he was MK the basho before that he's clearly not up for promotion the hard way. New Sekiwake Oortael has had two good basho in a row and only needs 10 wins for promotion to Ozeki. Other new Sekiwake ScreechingOwl was MK last basho and thus is not up for promotion. I don't know if I've ever had only one player up for Ozeki promotion before, and it comes at a time that we're potentially down to only one Ozeki after next basho. If we do go back down to one Ozeki, I'll stop segregating the Makuuchi scores by top and bottom half, as that was put in place when the number of Ozeki was growing uncomfortably high (there were 7 in Haru, Natsu, and Nagoya 2024). Athenayama returns to Komusubi yet again, making 4 basho in a row at the rank. Frinkanohana also returns as Komusubi. Norizo scored just a bit too low to get to Sekiwake but comfortably earns a Komusubi promotion. Bunbukuchagama also scores a promotion with a KK at M1e. Sakura(Ow, 11.33 wins) O Chishafuwaku(Oe, 2.73 wins) Pandaazuma(S2w, 8.59 wins) S ScreechingOwl(M3w, 14.14 wins) Oortael(M2w, 12.34 wins) S2 Frinkanohana(K2e, 8.98 wins) K Athenayama(Ke, 8.75 wins) Norizo(M1w, 10.39 wins) K2 Bunbukuchagama(M1e, 7.58 wins) Flohru(M9e, 13.02 wins) M1 Choshu-yuki(M6w, 10.98 wins) Hisui(M7e, 11.17 wins) M2 Kintamayama(Sw, 5.63 wins) Torafujii(M4e, 8.83 wins) M3 Kotononami(S2e, 5.47 wins) Bill(M5e, 9.14 wins) M4 Joaoiyama(M2e, 7.42 wins) Andoreasu(Se, 2.58 wins) M5 Ketsukai(M12w, 11.11 wins) Next-ozeki-ura(M10e, 9.7 wins) M6 Hakuryuho(M13e, 11.17 wins) Beeftank(M13w, 11.17 wins) M7 Kajiyanosho(M5w, 6.56 wins) Susanoo(Kw, 1.88 wins) M8 Konya ga Yamada(M9w, 8.74 wins) Kobashi(M3e, 4.53 wins) M9 Itchynotoe(M8e, 7.15 wins) BlackPinkMawashi(M14e, 9 wins) M10 Asapedroryu(M4w, 1.64 wins) Oskahanada(M6e, 3.05 wins) M11 Kaito(M10w, 6.51 wins) Asashosakari(M12e, 7.02 wins) M12 Kitakachiyama(M8w, 5.17 wins) Gusoyama(J9w, 13.85 wins) M13 Ganzohnesushi(M7w, 3.7 wins) Mariohana(J5w, 11.11 wins) M14 Wamahada(J13w, 15 wins) Kōrinokoishi(M15e, kosho) M15 Metzinowaka(M16e, 7.85 wins) Terarno(M14w, 6.45 wins) M16 Unkonoyama(J2e, 7.72 wins) Kachikoshi(J10w, 11.94 wins) M17 Andonishiki(J3w, 7.85 wins) J1 Hogashi(J4e, 7.66 wins) Kamibaka(J8e, 9.57 wins) J2 Achiyama(M17e, 5.62 wins) Saruyama(J11e, 10.85 wins) J3 Fujisan(J10e, 10.34 wins) Kuroimori(M11e, 0 wins) J4 Kaiowaka(J6e, 8.11 wins) Balon(M15w, 3.64 wins) J5 Joputosu(Ms2w, 13.41 wins) Anjoboshi(J13e, 10.85 wins) J6 GONZABUROW(M16w, 3.38 wins) Warusaru(J11w, 9.89 wins) J7 Gaijingai(J7w, kosho) Arawaka(J8w, 8.17 wins) J8 Papayasu(J2w, 5.36 wins) Gaanaa(J12w, 10.28 wins) J9 Gansekiiwa(J1e, 3.64 wins) CaptSmarta$$(Ms4e, 13.15 wins) J10 Kiriazuma(J1w, 3.13 wins) Edamamejin(Ms6w, 13.41 wins) J11 Golynohana(M11w, kyujo) Zannah(J9e, 6.38 wins) J12 Unagiyutaka2(J6w, 4.98 wins) KakushoyamaII(J4w, 2.17 wins) J13 Takanorappa(Ms3w, 10.3 wins) Yarimotsu(Ms1w, 9.18 wins) J14 Kyodaitimu(Ms4w, 10.34 wins) Oyama(Ms9w, 12.03 wins) Ms1 WAKATAKE(J14e, 6.32 wins) Hironoumi(J3e, kyujo) Ms2 Shatsume(Ms10w, 11.25 wins) Ruziklao(Ms1e, 6.42 wins) Ms3 Ippikiōkami(Ms13e, 12.41 wins) TochiYESshin(J12e, 3.13 wins) Ms4 Tetsukabe(J14w, 4.91 wins) Terukaze(Ms5w, 7.84 wins) Ms5 Oshirokita(J5e, kyujo) Profomisakari(Ms8e, 8.79 wins) Ms6 Tyerenex(Ms16e, 12.54 wins) Taliesin(J7e, kyujo) Ms7 Jejima(Ms7w, kosho) BlindOzekiMcTell(New, 12.63 wins) Ms8 Furanohana(Ms6e, 6.68 wins) Nantonoyama(Ms12e, 9.48 wins) Ms9 Kishikaisei(Ms3e, 4.87 wins) Doreikishi(Ms10e, 7.51 wins) Ms10 EdwardUrahara(Ms2e, 2.89 wins) Akishiki(Ms8w, 6.21 wins) Ms11 Anjinsan(Ms11e, 6.81 wins) Hakunojo(Ms9e, 5.52 wins) Ms12 Gustl(Ms12w, 7.24 wins) Gatakiriba(New, 9.53 wins) Ms13 Rowitoro(Ms14w, 7.51 wins) Hagamachikuni(Ms11w, 5.95 wins) Ms14 Jimizakura(Ms7e, 1.12 wins) Stusan(Ms13w, 5.09 wins) Ms15 Akagitsune(Ms15e, 5.99 wins) Multimikstar(Ms16w, 6.16 wins) Ms16 Netsuzakura(Ms5e, kyujo) Randomaru(Ms17e, 3.97 wins) Ms17 Shimodahito(Ms15w, 0 wins) Asanosanpo(Ms14e, kyujo) Bg

3. Hiradoumi

OK, now that I looked at the details of the rikishi in the playoffs, it's obviously because Makushita was much bigger. There are plenty of basho in the 60s where there were more than 192 rikishi in Makushita, meaning there would be more than 1.5 expected 7-0s. As long as there are more than 128 competing there's at least some chance of there being more than 1 even before considering heya, and it's more likely than just the expected percentage since the Makushita rikishi matched up against the top Sandanme rikishi would be more likely to win in general.

I haven't looked at the details at all, but I suspect many of them might be do-beya playoffs.

I didn't play last time and I have no interest in looking up what happened last time either, so it's new to me!

1. Ichiyamamoto 2. Takerufuji

Not sure why I even bother posting my guess anymore given how awful I tend to do these days - probably just because very few other people here are. (44)

I'll admit that I generally end up doing more "what I think is right" a bit too often.

I was more focused on how many sanyaku they decided on. I think if you look at more than that, you can find a bunch of instances where no one was right.

I think the largest surprise was when Asanoyama was demoted from Ozeki - they made him a 3rd Sekiwake instead of not promoting someone like they typically do when an Ozeki gets demoted. I don't think very many people anticipated that one, but it was recognized that it made sense, since Asanoyama was known to not be competing for a while. Would I call that more unexpected than them creating a 3rd Komusubi (or Sekiwake)? It's not a real fair comparison. In some sense, yes, it was more unexpected beforehand, but only because the situation hadn't really ever happened before. A 9-6 M1w is much more common than an Ozeki getting suspended and then demoted, and they haven't been given an extra spot in a long time, so it seems rather unexpected now.

I was going to say "this is a bit like saying that all our manned Mars missions have been successful - are there really any recent cases where there was competition between a K1e and a maegashira for that spot?" and in some ways it's true, but only for K1e specifically - I did find another somewhat recent counterexample that shows why many people think that Takayasu probably won't get to Sekiwake - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=20151 - where someone at precisely Takayasu's rank and record failed to take the spot from a K1w. However, this was ten years ago, and back then I assumed it was impossible for a maegashira to jump over a KK Komusubi, but they disproved that soon after - https://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201711. That specific banzuke is more recent, and shows that they will deny a KK Komusubi if the difference in wins is large enough. I personally gave Takayasu more credit for his 12-3 M4e because it was almost entirely against the top 16 - only the bout against Churanoumi wasn't. Ikioi (the Hatsu 2015 example) had a much weaker schedule because there were 4 more sanyaku, and thus I found that a more reasonable denial than what we have with Takayasu. I mean, I still admit that it's a very close call, and I won't be surprised to be wrong, but I think it's a closer call than what others believe, at least in my own mind.