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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Next Ozeki?

    I personally don't see Abi as an Ozeki for the same reason that I use for practically everyone: he didn't get to the joi early enough in his life, and he had a long enough stretch in Ozumo for that to have been possible. If after his first promotion to Juryo he had continued on to Makuuchi and up to the top of the banzuke by around the end of 2017, that would be a much better sign that he has the ability to make Ozeki. Instead, he fell back to Makushita and languished for over a year, including an MK at Ms21. He seemed to turn it around then, but unless there was some injury that was bugging him during that year that miraculously got better, it looks like he simply doesn't have the talent to make it, and needed more physical development to be able to get further up the banzuke. While he did have some KKs in the joi, he never had double digits (unlike Meisei and Takanosho), and had a 7-8 at M4 right before the suspension, which looks to me like he simply had a good run that finally ended. He hasn't had a full schedule of tough opponents, and a few of the new joi regulars weren't around back in his previous days (Meisei, Takanosho, Hoshoryu). While because of the lack of competition he might be in the top 5 of rikishi today, the next 5 after that are so close in strength it's hard for anyone to push through without a significant advantage.
  2. Not giving this topic its more proper name because it more accurately represents the content that I will be presenting in it. Sanyaku: All positions still technically open as Mitakeumi could feasibly be promoted, but it's looking reasonable to say the Sekiwake slots will have their incumbents while we look for Komusubi among the incumbents and maegashira who do well in the final stretch. Top contending Maegashira are in order: Tamawashi, Abi, Takarafuji, Ura, Ichinojo Maegashira in trouble, with numbers of wins to avoid being demotable by-the-numbers: Oho - 1 Kaisei - 3 Kotoeko - safe, but borderline Tsurugisho - 3 Aoiyama - 2 Tochinoshin - 2 Wakamotoharu - 1 Ichiyamamoto - 2 Yutakayama - 2 Chiyotairyu - 2 Terutsuyoshi - 1 Akua - 2 Chiyonokuni - 3 Hidenoumi will presumably be demoted unless there is a serious lack of candidates to take his spot. Takayasu should stay put as he's out due to Covid. No one in serious trouble here, with the worst three only needing winning records over the last 5 days. Juryo candidates, with wins needed for promotion by-the-numbers; Kagayaki - 2 Nishikigi - 4 Kotoshoho - 1 Daiamami - 4 Kotokuzan - 4 Kaisho - 4 Azumaryu - 5 Asanowaka - 4 Tohakuryu - 4 Not very many serious candidates to go up to go along with few people in danger of demotion, so we'll likely not have all that many exchanges. Juryo rikishi in trouble, with wins needed: Hiradoumi - 2 Chiyoarashi - 5 Kotoyusho - 1 Shiden - will be demoted Chiyonoo - will be demoted Hakuyozan - 2 Enho - 2 Tokushoryu - 1 Churanoumi - 2 Asanoyama is in a similar boat to Hidenoumi, but is slightly more likely to survive on a first pass, though as I've mentioned earlier they'll likely find someone to replace him if needed. So there's likely going to be at least 4 spots plus retirements, with outside chances at a couple more. Makushita candidates: Atamifuji had his 6th match early and won to bring him level for the tournament. He will be promoted with a win, while he'll try again from a few ranks lower with a loss. Ryuden probably has done enough already at 5-0 Ms5e given how many people will likely be demoted, but there's Shimazuumi, Takakento, and Tochimaru at 3-2 who might still finish with as good of a record ranked higher, and Atamifuji is ahead of him with a win, so it's not case closed on Ryuden being promoted yet. Outside of those 5 who have the best shot there's also Kairyu who might finish with a KK. I'll not speculate on where in the queue he might finish. In Day 11 action in makushita we have Takakento vs. Tochimaru, so one will get a KK this round. Shimazuumi is up in Juryo against Kotoyusho. Kairyu faces Ms7 Hokaho and Ryuden faces Ms30 Akiseyama in the Makushita semifinal (kinda).
  3. Gurowake

    New Juryo for Haru 2022

    Yeah, I didn't see any source for that tweet from ISJ. I was waiting for this thread before congratulating Tochimaru.
  4. Gurowake

    Mitakeumi Ozeki Promotion

    You can edit the title of the thread since you created it. It's not a "moderator action". Just edit the first post.
  5. Why did he switch in the first place if he was just going to switch back? Did he just change his mind after 5 years which name he wanted?
  6. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    Intended as a repository of pointless bits of trivia I or others find, particularly while browsing the database. It happens a lot between basho. In a total of 5 basho since the 15-day era began, the last match was between two undefeated rikishi. Twice it was Taiho vs. Kashiwado, and they split the matches. All matches featured Y1e. No such match was a playoff (theoretically possible between stable members). Harumafuji is the only one to appear in such a bout that was not a Yokozuna at the time. No other Day-15 matches involving 2 14-0 rikishi have occurred. In Haru 1996, there was a 6-0 match in Jonidan on Day 15, but two other rikishi were also 7-0 from previous days. Incidentally, a few basho in each direction in that time period there were many Day-14 6-0 matches in the lower divisions, but none that basho and one on Day 15 instead. Only one Day-14 6-0 match took place outside that 1995-1996 window.
  7. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    It's entirely in whether you're pushing them hard enough so that you lose contact with them afterwards. Tsukidashi requires leaving contact with the opponent because you pushed them so hard, while in oshidashi you maintain contact. It's basically completely arbitrary and somewhat random in the vast majority of bouts won that way, but in the extremes it's easy to tell when someone goes flying away vs. someone slowly getting moved out at arms' length.
  8. Gurowake

    YDC convenes after Hatsu 2022

    I don't know why it would have been dropped. Makushita was worth a half million yen in 2003 according to some random guy on the forum back then. According to some other random people it didn't change when the salaries were increased a few years ago.
  9. Gurowake

    Sumo Ranfurly Shield History

    Yeah, it's kinda crazy how it can go all over the place such that it's never a good assumption that it's being held by someone near the top. Eventually it has always come back around, but at any particular time there's no way to know without going through the history. I was pretty sure it wasn't going to end up in Terunofuji's hands after Kyushu as I was going through Aki, and then all of a sudden it popped back up into the joi.
  10. See for background, and as of this posting, the first decade of results available (plus Natsu 1909). We come into 1920 with Oshio holding the shield. Recall this is supposed to be collaborative. Post the next basho name by itself to "claim" that you're working on that basho, then edit the post with the details. Or just leave all the work to me. As was said, do I truly have anything better to do New Year's Day?
  11. Here's a general hint: if working from the top isn't getting you anywhere, try working from the bottom.
  12. Gurowake

    Next Ozeki?

    It's going to be at least a year before Asanoyama is even back in Makuuchi, and another year before he has a chance to make Ozeki again. If he's the next one, that's a decently long time without a new one, especially given how few there are now. (There have been 61 hard promotions to Ozeki since 1961, or 1 per year.)
  13. There was a long-running feature from Asashosakari with regard to rikishi who had certain combinations of low age and high rank that has been absent for a number of years now. For some time I have been keeping track of rikishi that meet the following criteria on each banzuke: Age lower than Rank at least 23 M3 22.5 M10 22 M17 21.5 J7 21 J14 20.5 ms15 20 ms30 19.5 ms45 19 ms60 18.5 sd25 18 sd50 17.5 sd75 17 sd100 16.5 Jd25 Originally I also tracked those not age 16 that were at least Jd50, though I stopped doing that when it was clear that hardly anyone ever met that criteria. Even the Jonidan criteria here is rarely indicative of much of anything, but there are at least a few people that meet that requirement. The M17 requirement is not supposed to exclude the possibility of an M18, but the numbers were arrived at before that was ever a thing. I don't think I'll begrudge counting an M18 under 22 in the M17 category. The numbers were picked relatively randomly, with an eye on excluding the vast majority of rikishi but still allowing for a dozen or so to show up for each banzuke. As you may have seen me mention in the past, being able to reach M3 by age 23 is a very good predictor of becoming an Ozeki, as well as a telling sign of failing to make Ozeki if the criteria could have been met but wasn't. I've used this criteria to suggest that Meisei and Takanosho, for example, while fairly young with KKs at Sekiwake, aren't particularly likely to go on to make Ozeki. If they were good enough, they would likely have gotten up to the top of Makuuchi a few years earlier than they did. Of course, since it's impossible for graduated collegiate competitors to make these numbers, collegiates who have made Ozeki are ignored, but it should be noted that Asanoyama and Shodai did reach the top of Makuuchi fairly quickly. Another that falls into this category in the time frame I've looked at would be Kotomitsuki; like Shodai, he didn't make Ozeki right away, but he did get to the top of Makuuchi quickly. Every single other Ozeki since Asashoryu has made the criteria, and the non-Ozeki exceptions are Tochiozan, Asasekiyru, most likely Chiyootori (obviously has had injuries and is not nearly on the same level as he was when he made Komusubi), "who knows what would have happened?" for Wakanoho and Osunaarashi, and "the jury's still out" for Ichinojo, Onosho, Kotoshoho, and Hoshoryu. Now certainly a lot more people have met the other criteria, but it's a start at trying to point out those that are likely to make it to the top by the requisite age. It should be noted that the previously-mentioned Meisei and Takanosho were well advanced on this scale back in 2013, and while they no longer look like Ozeki candidates, they are solid top division rikishi who look to be joi mainstays for years to come. Lots of future sekitori have featured on my lists from the past, though plenty of them in the lower ranks end up not really going anywhere. Still, it's a good start for knowing who to look at. I also include a notation for those who are at a tier above where they would need to be to make the list, denoted with a +X, where X is the number of tiers above the minimum for their age. I still consider there to be a tier at every 6 month period below 16.5 - I just don't look for those at lower ranks. Those that currently meet the criteria, with a bit of their history on this list, are: M10 tier: Hoshoryu has been on the list continuously since Hatsu 2019, when he was in the Ms30 tier. J14 Tier: Hokuseiho+2 has been on since Hatsu 2021 in the Ms15 tier. Ms15 Tier: Otsuji+4 has been on since Haru 2020 in the Sd100 tier. Atamifuji+2 has been on since Nagoya 2021 in the Ms60 tier. Oshoumi is a new addition. Ms30 Tier: Nabatame is a new addition. Ms45 Tier: Yoshii+2 has been on the list since Kyushu 2019 in the Sd75 tier. He's unfortunately kyujo this basho, though he'll likely stay on the list next basho since he's two tiers ahead now (assuming he doesn't retire). Sd50 Tier: Nishida+1 first appeared on the list in Hatsu 2021 in the Jd25 tier, and has been absent only in Natsu 2021 since then. Daihisho first appeared on the list in Hatsu 2021 in the Sd75 tier, and has been absent only in Nagoya 2021 since then. Sd100 Tier: Shunrai makes his second consecutive appearance, being in the Jd25 tier last basho. Jd25 Tier: Mizuno+1, Kiyonohana, and Mogamizakura are new additions. If anyone knows something about some of the less well-known guys on this list, feel free to post it here. All I'm looking at is banzuke position and age; in general, I don't know anything else about these guys, though I generally do look to see if there was a blurb about them in the recruits thread when they pop onto the list at a high position.
  14. Gurowake

    Longest gaps between rematches

    I just noticed that Meisei met Terunofuji twice in the very bottom of the banzuke before meeting him over 9 years later in Makuuchi. I don't know how to spin this so it might be a record in some way, but it was interesting to find and figured it might go in this thread.
  15. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    The most promising candidates all picked up KKs: Atamifuji should be promoted to Juryo after just 7 basho from Maezumo, tied for 5th fastest, and the only one as young as him to go that fast (though others have been one basho slower). Hokuseiho (one of those one basho slower) will move up with a 5-2, but likely won't be in the promotion zone. Though I haven't worked it out specifically based on the actual results, I would normally expect him around ms6-7. Otsuji picked up a KK and will move up slightly to around ms20, while Yoshii did a lot to get back closer to before his injury hiatus with a 6-1, which should put him roughly around ms40, probably a bit lower. The other 5 on the list this basho had an MK, but they were all of the minimal type, so no major backwards movements there.
  16. Gurowake

    Sumo Ranfurly Shield History

    Full basho for Hatsu 2022: Y Terunofuji -> M3 Tamawashi (6) -> S Mitakeumi (7) -> M4 Hokutofuji (10) -> O Shodai (12) -> M5 Onosho (13) -> M1 Wakatakakage (15)
  17. Gurowake

    Sumo ‘Ranfurly Shield’ for 2022

    Full basho: Y Terunofuji -> M3 Tamawashi (6) -> S Mitakeumi (7) -> M4 Hokutofuji (10) -> O Shodai (12) -> M5 Onosho (13) -> M1 Wakatakakage (15)
  18. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    Well that's good news for Tochimaru, who's been close-but-not-quite to Juryo on a few times before. I think I was influenced by recent things like - but there's a difference between J12 and J13. The only recent 6-9 J13s to survive had worse replacements available than the recent 6-9 J12s.
  19. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 discussions (results)

    Well, Asanoyama's lack of consistency isn't on the dohyo - at least double digit wins in all tournaments he finished since hitting sanyaku, including 6 in a row starting from M2, and only one injury kyujo (only one of his career) after that followed by 2 more double digits. If he doesn't get hurt on his way back up he should have little problem returning to Ozeki and will be a reasonable candidate for Yokozuna given how he fared previously at Ozeki.
  20. Gurowake

    RotoSumo Haru 2022

    We have two new Ozeki as both Sakura and Andoreasu met their goal of 10 wins. Sakura's Ozeki run was very unimpressive, but it was just barely enough. Andoreasu's wasn't all that much better with the max score being just over 12 wins, but it's hard to find candidates with stricter rules for promotion. We also have one demotion from Ozeki as Konosato picked up his second MK in a row. He can return to Ozeki the easy way with 10 wins next basho. Norizo returns as Sekiwake and with a reasonably good last two tournaments needs only 10 wins for Ozeki promotion. Top-performing maegashira Ganzonesushi returns to Sekiwake and with a KK in the previous tournament also needs only 10 wins to return to ozeki. Yusho winner Komusbi Oshirokita returns to Sekiwake but was MK last tournament and so is not up for promotion. We have only two Komusubi on this banzuke, the next-best-performing maegashira Taka and Golynohana. Next-in-line Kobashi was not particularly close to forcing an 11th sanyaku. Achiyama does a good Oho impression with a small MK at the bottom of the division such that he would not have been demoted had his rank stayed on the banzuke. But with the additional 2 sanyaku it did not, and down he must go. Asapedroryu gets the lucky reprieve, but it was very close between him and the next Juryo promotion candidate, Andrasoyamawaka. BariiHachiBenson and Chumsinomaru were both new and had the same score, so they should be ranked identically. Since that's not possible, they're ranked alphabetically, and will (hopefully, if I remember) be treated as ranked identically for movement after Haru. Chishafuwaku(Ow, 9.61 wins) O Flohru(O2e, 9.14 wins) Andoreasu(Sw, 11.95 wins) O2 Sakura(Se, 10 wins) Norizo(S2w, 9.06 wins) S Oshirokita(Kw, 15 wins) Ganzohnesushi(M1w, 13.98 wins) S2 Konosato(Oe, 4.61 wins) Taka(M4e, 11.64 wins) K Golynohana(M10w, 13.75 wins) Kobashi(M5e, 10.7 wins) M1 GONZABUROW(M12e, 13.52 wins) Asashosakari(M9e, 11.88 wins) M2 Torafujii(M6w, 9.53 wins) Kaiowaka(M3e, 7.51 wins) M3 Gaijingai(M13e, 12.73 wins) Mariohana(M3w, 6.88 wins) M4 Kitakachiyama(M16e, 12.73 wins) Kutoyama(M1e, 4.45 wins) M5 Frinkanohana(M10e, 9.06 wins) Bill(M7w, 7.66 wins) M6 Hakuryuho(J4e, 14.82 wins) Kintamayama(M2w, 4.38 wins) M7 Kaito(Ke, 1.09 wins) Kuroimori(M13w, 9.45 wins) M8 Kotononami(J1e, 12.07 wins) Pandaazuma(M15w, 10.16 wins) M9 Gansekiiwa(M8e, 6.17 wins) ScreechingOwl(M6e, 5.16 wins) M10 Oskahanada(M5w, 4.45 wins) Athenayama(M2e, 0 wins) M11 Chankoyama(J3e, 11.71 wins) Anjoboshi(M7e, 3.83 wins) M12 Terarno(M11w, 6.09 wins) Choshu-yuki(M4w, 0 wins) M13 Oortael(J4w, 10.91 wins) Kyoju(M14e, 6.95 wins) M14 Hironoumi(J7e, 12.07 wins) Shatsume(M8w, 2.58 wins) M15 Andonishiki(M16w, 7.58 wins) Asapedroryu(M11e, 3.67 wins) M16 Sukubidubidu(M17w, kosho) Achiyama(M17e, 7.42 wins) J1 Andrasoyamawaka(J3w, 9.51 wins) Metzinowaka(J12e, 13.35 wins) J2 Saruyama(J5w, 9.82 wins) Kajiyanosho(J9e, 11.4 wins) J3 Oyama(M12w, 3.13 wins) Sutārokku(M9w, 0 wins) J4 Joaoiyama(M14w, 5 wins) Reijinguoshan(J5e, 7.74 wins) J5 Fujisan(J2e, 7.15 wins) Tomisakae(J2w, 7.13 wins) J6 Nantonoyama(M15e, 1.09 wins) Unkonoyama(J1w, 4.27 wins) J7 KazeJihi(Ms6e, 13.73 wins) Hagamachikuni(J13e, 9.33 wins) J8 Seki Haruaki(J12w, 8.9 wins) Ruziklao(J8w, 6.59 wins) J9 Netsuzakura(Ms7e, 13.13 wins) Balon(J6w, 5.24 wins) J10 Kashunowaka(J10w, kosho) Gaanaa(J11e, 7.13 wins) J11 Wamahada(J10e, 6.4 wins) Sherlockiama(J8e, 5.37 wins) J12 Takanorappa(J14e, 8.29 wins) Ketsukai(J6e, 2.8 wins) J13 Akishiki(Ms5e, 10.64 wins) Arawaka(Ms5w, 10.84 wins) J14 Hidenotora(J13w, 7.26 wins) Next-ozeki-ura(Ms7w, 11.2 wins) Ms1 Kishikaisei(J9w, 3.35 wins) Kōrinokoishi(Ms2w, 7.75 wins) Ms2 Shiroikumo(J7w, 0.24 wins) Susanoo(J11w, 4.15 wins) Ms3 Mmikasazuma(Ms16w, 13.78 wins) Chelseayama(Ms9e, 9.43 wins) Ms4 Tsuchinoninjin(Ms9w, 9.63 wins) TochiYESshin(Ms1e, 5.32 wins) Ms5 BlackPinkMawashi(Ms6w, 7.65 wins) Zannah(Ms11e, 9.83 wins) Ms6 Rowitoro(Ms4w, 6.39 wins) Unagiyutaka2(Ms1w, 4.56 wins) Ms7 Hogashi(Ms2e, 4.56 wins) Kyodaitimu(Ms3e, 4.86 wins) Ms8 Jejima(Ms8e, 6.84 wins) WAKATAKE(Ms11w, 8.46 wins) Ms9 Profomisakari(Ms3w, 2.48 wins) Shimodahito(Ms14e, 7.6 wins) Ms10 Yeyisoshin(J14w, kyujo) Veshana(Ms15e, 6.99 wins) Ms11 Yarimotsu(Ms8w, 2.28 wins) Musasabi(Ms17e, 7.51 wins) Ms12 BariiHachiBenson(New, 8.36 wins) Chumsinomaru(New, 8.36 wins) Ms13 Dannybo(Ms13w, kosho) Stusan(Ms13e, 4.16 wins) Ms14 Harmony(Ms4e, kyujo) Taliesin(Ms12e, 2.99 wins) Ms15 Doreikishi(Ms17w, 6.03 wins) Marushiki(Ms16e, 5.07 wins) Ms16 Kuodorūpuru(New, 6.23 wins) Randomaru(Ms18w, 3.55 wins) Ms17 Bens8382(Ms10e, kyujo) Bg Chudorj(Ms10w, kyujo) Bg Furanohana(Ms12w, kyujo) Bg Tenshinhan(Ms14w, kyujo) Bg Haru(Ms15w, kyujo) Bg OoSk(Ms18e, kyujo) Bg
  21. Gurowake

    RotoSumo Hatsu 2022

    Results: Top Score = 1285 Makuuchi median = 1189 - Step size = 12.8 Player Score Wins Oshirokita 1285 15 Ganzohnesushi 1272 13.98 Golynohana 1269 13.75 GONZABUROW 1266 13.52 Gaijingai 1256 12.73 Kitakachiyama 1256 12.73 Andoreasu 1246 11.95 Asashosakari 1245 11.88 Taka 1242 11.64 Kobashi 1230 10.7 Pandaazuma 1223 10.16 Sakura 1221 10 Chishafuwaku 1216 9.61 Torafujii 1215 9.53 Kuroimori 1214 9.45 Flohru 1210 9.14 Frinkanohana 1209 9.06 Norizo 1209 9.06 Bill 1191 7.66 Andonishiki 1190 7.58 Kaiowaka 1189 7.51 Achiyama 1188 7.42 Kyoju 1182 6.95 Mariohana 1181 6.88 Gansekiiwa 1172 6.17 Terarno 1171 6.09 ScreechingOwl 1159 5.16 Joaoiyama 1157 5 Konosato 1152 4.61 Oskahanada 1150 4.45 Kutoyama 1150 4.45 Kintamayama 1149 4.38 Anjoboshi 1142 3.83 Asapedroryu 1140 3.67 Oyama 1133 3.13 Shatsume 1126 2.58 Kaito 1107 1.09 Nantonoyama 1107 1.09 Sutārokku 1077 0 Athenayama 1073 0 Choshu-Yuki 1044 0 Juryo median = 1162 - Step Size = 16.4 Player Score Wins Hakuryuho 1282 14.82 Metzinowaka 1258 13.35 Kotononami 1237 12.07 Hironoumi 1237 12.07 Chankoyama 1231 11.71 Kajiyanosho 1226 11.4 Oortael 1218 10.91 Saruyama 1200 9.82 Andrasoyamawaka 1195 9.51 Hagamachikuni 1192 9.33 Seki Haruaki 1185 8.9 Takanorappa 1175 8.29 Reijinguoshan 1166 7.74 Hidenotora 1158 7.26 Tomisakae 1156 7.13 Gaanaa 1156 7.13 Ruziklao 1147 6.59 Wamahada 1144 6.4 Fujisan 1130 7.15 Sherlockiama 1127 5.37 Balon 1125 5.24 Unkonoyama 1109 4.27 Susanoo 1107 4.15 Kishikaisei 1094 3.35 Ketsukai 1085 2.8 Shiroikumo 1043 0.24 Makushita median = 1137 - Step Size = 19.7333... Player Score Wins Mmikasazuma 1261 13.78 KazeJihi 1260 13.73 Netsuzakura 1248 13.13 Next-ozeki-ura 1210 11.2 Arawaka 1203 10.84 Akishiki 1199 10.64 Zannah 1183 9.83 Tsuchinoninjin 1179 9.63 Chelseayama 1175 9.43 WAKATAKE 1156 8.46 BariiHachiBenson 1154 8.36 Chumsinomaru 1154 8.36 Kōrinokoishi 1142 7.75 BlackPinkMawashi 1140 7.65 Shimodahito 1139 7.6 Musasabi 1137 7.51 Veshana 1127 6.99 Jejima 1124 6.84 Rowitoro 1115 6.39 Kuodorūpuru 1112 6.23 Doreikishi 1108 6.03 TochiYESshin 1094 5.32 Marushiki 1089 5.07 Kyodaitimu 1085 4.86 Hogashi 1079 4.56 Unagiyutaka2 1079 4.56 Stusan 1071 4.16 Randomaru 1059 3.55 Taliesin 1048 2.99 Profomisakari 1038 2.48 Yarimotsu 1034 2.28
  22. Gurowake

    RotoSumo Hatsu 2022

    Both of our new Ozeki, Konosato and Chishafuwaku, were a few points short of a KK and will be kadoban. Flohru did more than enough to get the promotion to Ozeki that he barely missed last time. Sakura returns as Sekiwake and has over 20 wins the last two tournaments as thus needs only 10 for Ozeki promotion. Andoreasu moves up to Sekiwake from Komusubi and has the same promotion scenario. Norizo returns to Sekiwake after being demoted from that rank last tournament, and without a KK in the previous tournament will not be up for promotion. Oshirokita falls from Sekiwake to Komusubi and Kaito has the next best maegashira record, and with the size of Sanyaku already at 8 I did not feel the need to promote any more Komusubi. The top of the maegashira ranks are a bit crowded, yes, but the next best maegashira records were not particularly close to how good I'd like them to be to force additional spots. The Makushita median was quite a bit lower than the Juryo median, over two step sizes, so I gave an additional 4 slots to Juryo rikishi when comparing them to Makushita rikishi. The Makuuchi and Juryo medians were close enough such that only one additional slot was used. Konosato(Ow, 7.47 wins) O Chishafuwaku(Oe, 7.32 wins) Flohru(Se, 13.93 wins) O2 Sakura(S2e, 8.8 wins) S Andoreasu(Kw, 10.83 wins) S2 Norizo(M3e, 12.25 wins) Kaito(M8e, 12.15 wins) K Oshirokita(Sw, 6.92 wins) Kutoyama(M1e, kosho) M1 Ganzohnesushi(M2w, 9.05 wins) Athenayama(M2e, 7.53 wins) M2 Kintamayama(M6e, 10.93 wins) Kaiowaka(Ke, 7.47 wins) M3 Mariohana(M7e, 9.97 wins) Taka(M5w, 9.1 wins) M4 Choshu-yuki(K2w, 5.85 wins) Kobashi(M12w, 11.8 wins) M5 Oskahanada(M6w, 8.69 wins) ScreechingOwl(M10e, 10.07 wins) M6 Torafujii(M1w, 5.64 wins) Anjoboshi(M11e, 10.12 wins) M7 Bill(J3w, 15 wins) Gansekiiwa(J4e, 14.9 wins) M8 Shatsume(M16e, 12 wins) Asashosakari(M14w, 11.24 wins) M9 Sutārokku(M9w, kosho) Frinkanohana(M3w, 4.93 wins) M10 Golynohana(M13e, 9.1 wins) Asapedroryu(M14e, 9.41 wins) M11 Terarno(M4w, 2.85 wins) GONZABUROW(J1w, 10.43 wins) M12 Oyama(J5e, 11.77 wins) Gaijingai(M4e, 0 wins) M13 Kuroimori(M9e, 4.93 wins) Kyoju(M10w, 5.59 wins) M14 Joaoiyama(M8w, 3.71 wins) Nantonoyama(M16w, 8.29 wins) M15 Pandaazuma(M5e, 0 wins) Kitakachiyama(M12e, 5.95 wins) M16 Andonishiki(M13w, 6.61 wins) Achiyama(M15w, 7.07 wins) M17 Sukubidubidu(M17w, 7.63 wins) Kotononami(J1e, 7.7 wins) J1 Unkonoyama(M11w, 4.83 wins) Fujisan(J3e, 9.24 wins) J2 Tomisakae(J7e, 11.03 wins) Chankoyama(M7w, 0 wins) J3 Andrasoyamawaka(J10e, 12.27 wins) Hakuryuho(M17e, 6.66 wins) J4 Oortael(J11e, 10.93 wins) Reijinguoshan(J7w, 9.04 wins) J5 Saruyama(J8e, 8.84 wins) Ketsukai(J2e, 5.71 wins) J6 Balon(J9e, 9.04 wins) Hironoumi(M15e, 1.37 wins) J7 Shiroikumo(J5w, 5.86 wins) Sherlockiama(Ms1e, 11.55 wins) J8 Ruziklao(J8w, kosho) Kajiyanosho(J11w, 7.51 wins) J9 Kishikaisei(J2w, 0.6 wins) Wamahada(J9w, 6.95 wins) J10 Kashunowaka(Ms1w, 10.19 wins) Gaanaa(Ms4w, 11.55 wins) J11 Susanoo(J4w, 1.14 wins) Metzinowaka(J6e, 2.19 wins) J12 Seki Haruaki(Ms3e, 9.84 wins) Hagamachikuni(J13e, 7.33 wins) J13 Hidenotora(J12w, 6.66 wins) Takanorappa(J6w, 1.79 wins) J14 Yeyisoshin(J14e, kosho) TochiYESshin(Ms6w, 10.99 wins) Ms1 Unagiyutaka2(Ms2w, 8.76 wins) Hogashi(Ms5w, 9.59 wins) Ms2 Kōrinokoishi(J12e, 4.17 wins) Kyodaitimu(Ms2e, 7.12 wins) Ms3 Profomisakari(Ms3w, 7.85 wins) Harmony(Ms4e, kosho) Ms4 Rowitoro(J10w, 1.14 wins) Akishiki(Ms6e, 8.72 wins) Ms5 Arawaka(J13w, 3.92 wins) KazeJihi(Ms7w, 8.79 wins) Ms6 BlackPinkMawashi(Ms7e, 8.23 wins) Netsuzakura(Ms8e, 7.08 wins) Ms7 Next-ozeki-ura(Ms11e, 7.15 wins) Jejima(Ms10w, 6.66 wins) Ms8 Yarimotsu(Ms8w, kosho) Chelseayama(Ms9e, 5.86 wins) Ms9 Tsuchinoninjin(Ms17e, 9.35 wins) Bens8382(Ms10e, kosho) Ms10 Chudorj(J14w, kyujo) Zannah(Ms13e, 7.15 wins) Ms11 WAKATAKE(Ms11w, 5.27 wins) Taliesin(Ms20e, 9.17 wins) Ms12 Furanohana(Ms12w, kosho) Stusan(Ms12e, 3.98 wins) Ms13 Dannybo(New, 8.93 wins) Shimodahito(Ms9w, 0 wins) Ms14 Tenshinhan(Ms5e, kyujo) Veshana(Ms15e, kosho) Ms15 Haru(Ms15w, kosho) Marushiki(Ms19e, 6.31 wins) Ms16 Mmikasazuma(Ms17w, 4.26 wins) Musasabi(Ms20w, 5.62 wins) Ms17 Doreikishi(New, 5.86 wins) OoSk(Ms18e, kosho) Ms18 Randomaru(Ms19w, 2.97 wins) The Chosen One(Ms13w, kyujo) Bg Splism(Ms14e, kyujo) Bg Chumsinomaru(Ms14w, kyujo) Bg Sanjuroku(Ms16e, kyujo) Bg Araiguma(Ms16w, kyujo) Bg Hibarifuji(Ms18w, kyujo) Bg
  23. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    I'll point out that they actually don't have any problems not promoting 8-7s if the situation is right - see Yutakayama after Kyushu 2019. They could have easily given Takanosho an even stingier promotion to give Yutakayama the half-rank promotion usually given at minimum, but they didn't. Now in that situation the sanyaku was getting much smaller (one less Ozeki, 2 less Komusubi), whereas in this situation the sanyaku is actually expanding, but they at least set the precedent then that it's possible.
  24. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2022 Promotion & Yusho blather

    This seems to me to be the clearly best solution in terms of fairness so long as they have a problem not promoting 8-7s. However, 1997 was a long time ago and things were generally different then. There's definitely been a trend towards not creating extra Komusubi since then. The only times they have anytime recently was when Hokutofuji had a 9-6 at M1e but there were no demotions, and when Daieisho won the yusho from M1w with no demotions. There's just little compelling reason to make an extra slot just based on the record, as they've denied extra slots recently to records like 10-5 M2w twice despite giving an extra slot to Asanoyama with that record when Hokutofuji was forced to be given an extra one presumably because Asanoyama deserved the spot more (I always found it odd that he got promoted as well, but was ranked behind Hokutofuji). They basically have to be giving an extra slot specifically because of the crunch in the joi maegashira, and I simply don't know of any precedent of them doing that.