Gurowake

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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    Intended as a repository of pointless bits of trivia I or others find, particularly while browsing the database. It happens a lot between basho. In a total of 5 basho since the 15-day era began, the last match was between two undefeated rikishi. Twice it was Taiho vs. Kashiwado, and they split the matches. All matches featured Y1e. No such match was a playoff (theoretically possible between stable members). Harumafuji is the only one to appear in such a bout that was not a Yokozuna at the time. No other Day-15 matches involving 2 14-0 rikishi have occurred. In Haru 1996, there was a 6-0 match in Jonidan on Day 15, but two other rikishi were also 7-0 from previous days. Incidentally, a few basho in each direction in that time period there were many Day-14 6-0 matches in the lower divisions, but none that basho and one on Day 15 instead. Only one Day-14 6-0 match took place outside that 1995-1996 window.
  2. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    12. Takarafuji
  3. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    11. Kotoshoho That's one of the few rikishi you can say it definitely won't be.
  4. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    The count of rikishi with high rank Ozeki on the banzuke ranked below Ozeki will be back up to 5 next basho assuming no retirements - once again there's Takayasu, Mitakeumi, Shodai, and Asanoyama, and now we have Kirishima replacing the retired Tochinoshin. The same two rikishi demoted from Ozeki that returned as of then are still there as well.
  5. Gurowake

    Natsu 2024 discussion (results)

    This is not exactly true. 3 Sekiwake and 5 Komusubi is ugly. 4 of each is much prettier.
  6. Gurowake

    Natsu 2024 discussion (results)

    If Onosato is promoted to Ozeki after the July tournament, it will be because his last two basho would have been reasonable to give a promotion to Yokozuna had he already been Ozeki. I don't think the M5 basho will count for anything as part of an Ozeki run other than getting him to Komusubi.
  7. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    9. Shonannoumi
  8. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    It's perfectly reasonable to think they'll get the S-S match in between the remaining O-K matches, and I'm surprised more people didn't guess that way (and if someone hadn't by the time I had guessed, I might have). Now the question is - are they going to treat Abi like a Komusubi like they did on Day 2, or are they going to finish the O-K matches before going to O-S matches? 8. Kirishima
  9. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    7. Takanosho
  10. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    6. Mitakeumi
  11. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    5. Nishikigi
  12. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    This is getting ridiculous.
  13. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    4. Takayasu
  14. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    I thought it might portend for a very bad day on japan-guide Sumo Game, and certainly it was, but the 4.13 average score wasn't bad enough to make the list of the lowest scoring days.
  15. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    3. Tobizaru
  16. Gurowake

    New recruits Natsu 2024

    Balboa?
  17. Gurowake

    Guess Ura's Aite - May 2024 edition

    Based on Akinomaki's assessment of who is going to be kyujo as of yesterday, for lack of any better information: 1. Onosho 2. Tobizaru
  18. Gurowake

    Advice on Sekitori Oracle?

    As someone who was one of the top Oracle players back when I was playing, I can just say that Randomitsuki basically said all the general high level advice that I would have given. If you're more serious about the games in general, you'll need to develop a method of determining the probability that each rikishi wins in a match. Determining which rikishi is going to win is generally less important than determining the probabilities that each rikishi will win. My own experience, and this is generally played out by the Seki-Toto results, is that matches are only roughly 60% predictable, which isn't much better than guessing at random and most of the deviation from 50% comes from the few rikishi that are at the top of the banzuke, out of their depth at their rank, or coming back after having sat out a tournament. As such, given that Oracle is an aggregate game, you always need to take into consideration that a rikishi that you think is going to win a match really will only win 0.6 matches or whatever per bout that you're favoring them if you're adding multiple results together to get a combined amount. In conjunction with that matrix of probability of wins for each potential rikishi matchup, you could then move on to guessing how likely it is each rikishi bout actually happens, and make a consistent matrix of match probabilities to multiply by the win probabilities for each match and then sum by rikishi to get your total number. If you think this sounds like too much work, that's exactly why I stopped playing the games. I didn't feel like doing it any more, but I simply couldn't imagine trying to make any guesses without such a system after having used it for a few years to get very good results.
  19. Possibly terrible prediction: Miyagino-beya will re-form before Terunofuji retires.
  20. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Natsu 2024

    So I guess Ichinojo doesn't count because he made it after only 1 tournament? Not mentioning that somewhat overstates the accomplishment. The previous accomplishment mentioned (2nd fastest to Sanyaku for MsTD) had to consider Ichinojo. I assume these are just copied from the Kyokai website, so I don't mean to target the person posting them, but the Kyokai.
  21. Simple concept. By definition the top rikishi on the banzuke will appear first, as there is no one above them on the banzuke at all. Those who show up on this list frequently that aren't already Ozeki or higher are likely to be worth keeping track of for the future. Probably anything the lower half of Jonidan or below isn't worth considering though. This is quick enough to put together that I can go back a few years if people find this interesting, since the last few years might still show some prospects worth considering that haven't hit their prime yet. Hatsu 2019 Y1e Kisenosato 03.07.1986 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms21w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms39e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms50e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd51e Yamato 03.07.2001 Sd83e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd84w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd5e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Haru 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J4e Takagenji 13.05.1997 J13w Takanofuji 13.05.1997 Ms1w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms7w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms20w Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms30e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms41e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd64e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd85w Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd69e Soga 09.02.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Natsu 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Goeido 06.04.1986 O1w Takayasu 28.02.1990 O2e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2e Kotokamatani 19.11.1997 Ms4e Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms4w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms15e Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms22e Naya 14.02.2000 Sd1e Hiradoumi 20.04.2000 Sd16e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd40w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd18e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd95w Soga 09.02.2003 Jd109w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Jk14e Yoshii 01.08.2003 Jk17e Otsuji 06.10.2003 Jk18e Koki 21.10.2003 Jk23e Wakahiroto 23.10.2003 Jk25e Daihisho 08.11.2003 Jk27w Hashimoto 15.01.2004 Jk28w Numano 13.02.2004 Ogitora just happens to be the youngest of the previous recruiting class, and his lingering in the triple digit Jd area probably means he won't go much of anywhere, unlike the barely older Kotokume who has already been in Sd. Numano will have the honors for the next year unless someone younger than him that graduated middle school early this year decides to join up later.
  22. Natsu 2024: Y1e Terunofuji 29.11.1991 O1e Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 K1w Onosato 07.06.2000 M1e Atamifuji 03.09.2002 J8w Hakuoho 22.08.2003 Ms6w Wakaikari 22.02.2005 Ms22e Tanji 05.06.2006 Ms52e Rinko 04.07.2006 Sd44e Hayashiryu 04.07.2006 Sd79w Takaarashi 28.12.2006 Jd15w Keiga 02.09.2007 Jd29w Yumenofuji 02.02.2008 Jd75e Daibasho 21.03.2008 Jk7e Takeuchi 08.09.2008 Jk10e Tsurugifuji 26.10.2008 Jk10w Daishisho 14.01.2009 Hoshoryu passes Kirishima. Onosato passes Atamifuji Wakaikari passes Satorufuji Hayashiryu passes Takaarashi Keiga passes Yumenofuji Takeuchi, Tsurugifuji, and Daishisho join at the bottom.
  23. Gurowake

    Hidenoyama-beya

    OK, this reminds me of something I've wondered. In English, the same word - "dream" - is used for unconscious hallucinations as well as for personal aspirations. I don't know about other people, but the things that I dream about at night are effectively never things that I would categorize as personal aspirations. I accept the fact that at least in English the same word is used for both, but is this the case for other languages? While I see the potential connection between these things, unless I just have much weirder dreams than most people, I can't see how in general the two concepts should automatically use the same word.
  24. Gurowake

    RESULTS GTB - May 2024 - 229 entries. Record!

    Terunofuji(2-5 Ye) Y Hoshoryu(11-4 Ow) O Kotonowaka(10-5 Ow) Takakeisho(8-6 Oe) O Kirishima(5-10 Oe) Wakamotoharu(9-6 Sw) S Abi(9-6 Ke) Asanoyama(9-6 M1w) K Onosato(11-4 M5w) Daieisho(6-9 Se) M1 Atamifuji(8-7 M2e) Hiradoumi(9-6 M4w) M2 Gonoyama(10-5 M6w) Takayasu(11-4 M8w) M3 Tobizaru(8-7 M4e) Takerufuji(13-2 M17e) M4 Ura(6-9 M1e) Oho(7-8 M3e) M5 Meisei(6-9 M2w) Onosho(9-6 M8e) M6 Midorifuji(7-8 M5e) Nishikigi(3-12 Kw) M7 Mitakeumi(9-6 M10w) Takanosho(5-10 M3w) M8 Tamawashi(7-8 M7w) Kotoshoho(8-7 M9w) M9 Shodai(8-7 M10e) Shonannoumi(9-6 M12e) M10 Kinbozan(6-7 M7e) Sadanoumi(8-7 M11w) M11 Hokutofuji(6-9 M9e) Ichiyamamoto(7-8 M11e) M12 Nishikifuji(8-7 M14e) Mitoryu(12-3 J2w) M13 Churanoumi(7-8 M13w) Tsurugisho(2-3 M6e) M14 Ryuden(6-9 M13e) Oshoma(11-4 J4w) M15 Roga(7-8 M15w) Tokihayate(8-7 J1e) M16 Daiamami(7-8 M16w) Takarafuji(8-7 J1w) M17 I would have put Takerufuji even higher if it wasn't for Tobizaru basically blocking him due to his need to be promoted and the far superior claims of everyone else above him.