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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Wakaichiro has retired

    True, although they are both rather close to retiring. I don't think that was intended as the meaning, but it's true nonetheless.
  2. Gurowake

    Coronavirus in China

    If it "spirals out of control" it just means that a bunch of people who had weak immune systems will die prematurely and everyone will be much more likely to get a severe cold than before. It's not like it's the Spanish Flu that's killing young people preferentially - it's just a really nasty cold virus. It'll simply be one of the many that are floating around, and the world will have to deal with it. Immuno-compromised people will have much shorter life spans, people will get a cold very slightly more frequently, and life will eventually return to a new normal not too different from now. And I'm almost certain that's what's going to happen, given that it can spread before you know you're infected, plus there are plenty of people who still travel while infected to help spread it as well.
  3. Gurowake

    Greetings from Michigan

    There's yet another on this forum. I won't give him away, but he's fairly active and doesn't exactly hide the fact he's from the area.
  4. Gurowake

    Greetings from Michigan

    Do you stay up all night to watch live, get out of bed early to watch live, or only watch recorded? It's pretty terrible to try to catch live top-division sumo here in Michigan, and I don't try anymore.
  5. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    Intended as a repository of pointless bits of trivia I or others find, particularly while browsing the database. It happens a lot between basho. In a total of 5 basho since the 15-day era began, the last match was between two undefeated rikishi. Twice it was Taiho vs. Kashiwado, and they split the matches. All matches featured Y1e. No such match was a playoff (theoretically possible between stable members). Harumafuji is the only one to appear in such a bout that was not a Yokozuna at the time. No other Day-15 matches involving 2 14-0 rikishi have occurred. In Haru 1996, there was a 6-0 match in Jonidan on Day 15, but two other rikishi were also 7-0 from previous days. Incidentally, a few basho in each direction in that time period there were many Day-14 6-0 matches in the lower divisions, but none that basho and one on Day 15 instead. Only one Day-14 6-0 match took place outside that 1995-1996 window.
  6. Gurowake

    New recruits for Haru 2020

    He does not look happy to be there. And his footwear seems rather inappropriate next to the others.
  7. Gurowake

    44th Fuji TV Grand Sumo Tournament

    The guys for whom the prize money is a bigger deal compared to their normal earnings will give it their all or most of it. Those that earn (or have earned) amounts such that the prize isn't all that significant don't care and just don't want to get injured.
  8. Gurowake

    Goeido to Retire

    10-4 Kisenosato beat 7-7 Goeido on senshuraku in Aki 2015. Terunofuji already had 12 wins, so the yusho was not potentially up for grabs. Goeido lost his last 3 matches in Nagoya 2017 to finish 7-8. While the first two losses were to Yokozuna in the Yusho race, the last was against 8-6 Ozeki Takayasu. Do you need any more evidence to see OSBC is dead and gone? Perhaps some of his 8th wins in other tournaments were yaocho, but it's clear that they (the Ozeki) definitely stayed well away from it when it was obvious who really needed the win more, on at least those two occasions. I suppose you can counter with "Goeido gave those guys the wins so he could get them back for his zensho next tournament". Sure, whatever.
  9. Gurowake

    Azumazeki-oyakata has died

    The government renting land on a 50 year contract sounds more like how it works in China, where the "rent" is really property taxes given that it's being paid to the government. I mean I guess it could theoretically happen here in the US, with municipalities owning land and buildings and renting them out to people, but generally if there's any municipal-owned land, the municipality is using it. The only rent received would be short-term things like renting a room in the library for a homeowner's association meeting; if they didn't intend to use it themselves for 50 years, they'd sell it. At least that's how I understand things.
  10. Gurowake

    Azumazeki-oyakata has died

    Do most heya own their premises? I assumed that they all rented, but I don't know what the Japanese real estate market is like.
  11. Gurowake

    Azumazeki-oyakata has died

    There go the Furikake endorsements...
  12. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

    Takayasu started when he was just barely 15 years old, and made it to M1 when he was only 22, when Endo was still in university. Thus Takayasu was a top-division mainstay at the time Endo entered Ozumo, so is easily thought of as a generation before. Shodai entered Ozumo one year later than Endo (being a year younger), but had to start at the bottom, so it took him yet another year to get where Endo started.
  13. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

    Given some of their decisions in the past, I wouldn't completely count out Hokutofuji getting the second Sekiwake spot now open, but it definitely would have been closer, and indeed by the numbers be in his favor by a half-rank, if he had won his last match. Shodai having Sekiwake experience while Hokutofuji does not may or may not matter, but would tilt things more towards Shodai.
  14. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

    With Goeido's retirement, these situations seem much clearer - all the rikishi will end up in the higher division.
  15. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

    One of the links on the SumoDB home page is to a query for "Ozeki runs" where someone finished with at least 30 wins over the last 3 tournaments where the last one was at Sekiwake. The times such a run ended in a promotion are highlighted. In addition to the previously mentioned 31-win run that went 9-10-12Y, There was: Onokuni 9-10-12J at a time where there were 2 Yokozuna and 3 other Ozeki, promoted 09.1985 Masuiyama 8-11-12J, 4Y, 1O, 03.1980 Kaiketsu (first promotion) 7-12Y-11J, 2Y, 1O, 01.1975 Kiyokuni 10-9-12J, 2Y, 3 O, 07.1969 That was the beginning of the current kadoban system, and going back from there, there were many 30-win promotions. We're basically in the same situation as with Kaiketsu, and the Yokozuna are performing even worse (in the Kaiketsu case, both Wajima and Kitanoumi were rather new Yokozuna just beginning their dominance), so we might expect some leniency in Ozeki promotions. But that was also 45 years ago, so there's been complete turnover of the oyakata since then.
  16. Gurowake

    Terunofuji Watch

    In a weird parallel with Tochinoshin's first Juryo Yusho during his comeback, his inability to secure a promotion may in this case leave him not particularly close to the top due to the number of rikishi that need to be ranked in that area.
  17. Gurowake

    UDH Hatsu Basho 2020

    The lineup I intended to use but forgot to input (I think for the second straight basho) would have scored 299, so worse than average, even with Meisei at 6 and Myogiryu at 5, as those were pretty common top picks.
  18. Gurowake

    Hatsu 2020 Basho Discussion (SPOILERS)

    I'm seeing him being just outside the top 16. Hakuho, Kakuryu, Takakeisho, Asanoyama, Goeido, Hokutofuji, Endo, Takayasu, Yutakayama, Mitakeumi, Okinoumi, Daieisho, Shodai, and Ryuden (purposely jumbled a bit from the order I expect them in) are clearly ahead of him, I would put Abi and Enho ahead of him as they had full sanyaku schedules and come in around the same place, and Onosho is a close call. So it may depend on whether Goeido retires whether he'll face the Yokozuna (if they compete). Certainly if the Yokozuna are out he'll face a full sanyaku schedule. They clearly don't care recently at all about whether someone wins the yusho in terms of how they rank them. Asanoyama didn't get a sanyaku spot, but most people would have expected him to in that situation even if he wouldn't have won the yusho. It went to someone 3 ranks higher with 2 less wins instead, which certainly happens (Takayasu over Mitakeumi after Natsu 2016), but it's clear evidence they just don't care about the yusho for the banzuke. You get your prize money and bonus boost and that's that.
  19. That's what happens when I retype everything. I set up an automated procedure for pulling names from the Banzuke for doing the Bench torikumi because my first attempt when I was retyping everything spelled multiple people's names wrong.
  20. I don't have a good idea for an interesting name for this, so I guess it can be called GLT for short. This is an attempt to make a game that will reward long-term predictions rather than those just about the upcoming basho. The idea is to pick rikishi who will eventually go on to become stars, or at least long-term sekitori, and except for the first time set up of your team, they have to be picked while in Sandanme or below. As a new player, pick one rikishi in each of the following rank bands: 1) K-M2 2) M3-M6 3) M7-M11 4) The rest of Makuuchi 5) Juryo 6) Makushita 7) Sandanme and below These comprise your team, and will mostly comprise your team in future basho regardless of their movement in rank. Each basho after the banzuke is released until the first match on Shonichi, you may choose to release one rikishi and pick a new one in Sandanme or below. If a rikishi on your team is no longer on the banzuke, you must replace them with a rikishi in Sandanme or below. In such a case you can also make a regular change as well. You do not have to make a change every tournament, or even indicate your continuing participation in future basho. Once you enter one basho, your score will be tracked in the future until one of the rikishi on your team is no longer on the banzuke and you do not replace them. Scoring is as follows: 1 point per regulation win, including fusensho. 1 extra point per win other than fusensho over an Ozeki, regardless of rank of your rikishi, including in a playoff. 2 extra points per win other than fusensho over a Yokozuna, regardless of rank of your rikishi, including in a playoff. 1 point per Sandanme or lower Yusho 2 points per Makushita Yusho 5 points per Juryo Yusho 1 point per Juryo Yusho-Doten (playoff appearance not won). 10 points per Makuuchi Yusho. 3 points per Makuuchi Yusho-Doten. 10 extra points per Makuuchi Zensho (whether Yusho or not, just in case of the do-beya double Zensho) 1 point per other Makuuchi Jun-Yusho. 2 points per Kachi-koshi where your rikishi was one of the 16 highest ranked rikishi who participated in the tournament or 14 highest ranked that were on the Day 15 torikumi. 1 additional point for each win above Kachi-koshi in the above situation. There will be a winner named each basho for the player whose team scores the most points that basho. There will be no updates in the middle of the basho in general, unless I happen to automate something during my free time or someone else takes it upon themselves. The banzuke-like rankings will be based on points scored the last six tournaments, where previous tournaments have some of their value removed for each successive tournament in the same way as in Chaingang and GTB. I will also keep a lifetime average points scored per basho ranking list. I have absolutely no idea if players that end up playing a long time will in general end up with an advantage over new players. Those that pick well certainly will. Those that pick poorly may wish they'd be able to start again with 4 Makuuchi and a Juryo rikishi, but this will not be allowed. This is a long-term prediction game, and one needs to live with one's picks.
  21. Gurowake

    Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2020

    There is a big difference between M1e and M1w, and a 9-6 M1e did have an extra spot created not too long ago.
  22. Very funny. I mean, technically, you're right, but context makes it clear what I meant.
  23. Gaijingai also submitted the following line-up in secret: Mitakeumi Meisei Onosho Kiribayama Kotonowaka Naya Hokutenkai Points per rikishi that were picked: Hatsu Results: These are obviously also the rankings for each of the other "competitions" outlined, the GTB-like ranking as well as the lifetime average points scored per basho.
  24. Yes, players that have not entered in previous basho can enter in subsequent basho. This might be an advantage for you as you will have different choices for each bracket than those who entered this time.