Gurowake

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Everything posted by Gurowake

  1. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    When he turned 23 in May, he was too old to make these lists. Because he wasn't 23 until May, he made the May basho list as under 23, as it uses the beginning of the month the basho starts as the cutoff. That he's firmly established at the top of the division as he ages out is a good sign.
  2. There was a long-running feature from Asashosakari with regard to rikishi who had certain combinations of low age and high rank that has been absent for a number of years now. For some time I have been keeping track of rikishi that meet the following criteria on each banzuke: Age lower than Rank at least 23 M3 22.5 M10 22 M17 21.5 J7 21 J14 20.5 ms15 20 ms30 19.5 ms45 19 ms60 18.5 sd25 18 sd50 17.5 sd75 17 sd100 16.5 Jd25 Originally I also tracked those not age 16 that were at least Jd50, though I stopped doing that when it was clear that hardly anyone ever met that criteria. Even the Jonidan criteria here is rarely indicative of much of anything, but there are at least a few people that meet that requirement. The M17 requirement is not supposed to exclude the possibility of an M18, but the numbers were arrived at before that was ever a thing. I don't think I'll begrudge counting an M18 under 22 in the M17 category. The numbers were picked relatively randomly, with an eye on excluding the vast majority of rikishi but still allowing for a dozen or so to show up for each banzuke. As you may have seen me mention in the past, being able to reach M3 by age 23 is a very good predictor of becoming an Ozeki, as well as a telling sign of failing to make Ozeki if the criteria could have been met but wasn't. I've used this criteria to suggest that Meisei and Takanosho, for example, while fairly young with KKs at Sekiwake, aren't particularly likely to go on to make Ozeki. If they were good enough, they would likely have gotten up to the top of Makuuchi a few years earlier than they did. Of course, since it's impossible for graduated collegiate competitors to make these numbers, collegiates who have made Ozeki are ignored, but it should be noted that Asanoyama and Shodai did reach the top of Makuuchi fairly quickly. Another that falls into this category in the time frame I've looked at would be Kotomitsuki; like Shodai, he didn't make Ozeki right away, but he did get to the top of Makuuchi quickly. Every single other Ozeki since Asashoryu has made the criteria, and the non-Ozeki exceptions are Tochiozan, Asasekiyru, most likely Chiyootori (obviously has had injuries and is not nearly on the same level as he was when he made Komusubi), "who knows what would have happened?" for Wakanoho and Osunaarashi, and "the jury's still out" for Ichinojo, Onosho, Kotoshoho, and Hoshoryu. Now certainly a lot more people have met the other criteria, but it's a start at trying to point out those that are likely to make it to the top by the requisite age. It should be noted that the previously-mentioned Meisei and Takanosho were well advanced on this scale back in 2013, and while they no longer look like Ozeki candidates, they are solid top division rikishi who look to be joi mainstays for years to come. Lots of future sekitori have featured on my lists from the past, though plenty of them in the lower ranks end up not really going anywhere. Still, it's a good start for knowing who to look at. I also include a notation for those who are at a tier above where they would need to be to make the list, denoted with a +X, where X is the number of tiers above the minimum for their age. I still consider there to be a tier at every 6 month period below 16.5 - I just don't look for those at lower ranks. Those that currently meet the criteria, with a bit of their history on this list, are: M10 tier: Hoshoryu has been on the list continuously since Hatsu 2019, when he was in the Ms30 tier. J14 Tier: Hokuseiho+2 has been on since Hatsu 2021 in the Ms15 tier. Ms15 Tier: Otsuji+4 has been on since Haru 2020 in the Sd100 tier. Atamifuji+2 has been on since Nagoya 2021 in the Ms60 tier. Oshoumi is a new addition. Ms30 Tier: Nabatame is a new addition. Ms45 Tier: Yoshii+2 has been on the list since Kyushu 2019 in the Sd75 tier. He's unfortunately kyujo this basho, though he'll likely stay on the list next basho since he's two tiers ahead now (assuming he doesn't retire). Sd50 Tier: Nishida+1 first appeared on the list in Hatsu 2021 in the Jd25 tier, and has been absent only in Natsu 2021 since then. Daihisho first appeared on the list in Hatsu 2021 in the Sd75 tier, and has been absent only in Nagoya 2021 since then. Sd100 Tier: Shunrai makes his second consecutive appearance, being in the Jd25 tier last basho. Jd25 Tier: Mizuno+1, Kiyonohana, and Mogamizakura are new additions. If anyone knows something about some of the less well-known guys on this list, feel free to post it here. All I'm looking at is banzuke position and age; in general, I don't know anything else about these guys, though I generally do look to see if there was a blurb about them in the recruits thread when they pop onto the list at a high position.
  3. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    He would have to be a year younger or in Makushita to make the list right now. Sd50 tier is less than 18 years old, and he's about to turn 19. He'll need to get to Ms45 for next basho to show up.
  4. Simple concept. By definition the top rikishi on the banzuke will appear first, as there is no one above them on the banzuke at all. Those who show up on this list frequently that aren't already Ozeki or higher are likely to be worth keeping track of for the future. Probably anything the lower half of Jonidan or below isn't worth considering though. This is quick enough to put together that I can go back a few years if people find this interesting, since the last few years might still show some prospects worth considering that haven't hit their prime yet. Hatsu 2019 Y1e Kisenosato 03.07.1986 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms21w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms39e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms50e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd51e Yamato 03.07.2001 Sd83e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd84w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd5e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Haru 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J4e Takagenji 13.05.1997 J13w Takanofuji 13.05.1997 Ms1w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms7w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms20w Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms30e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms41e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd64e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd85w Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd69e Soga 09.02.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Natsu 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Goeido 06.04.1986 O1w Takayasu 28.02.1990 O2e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2e Kotokamatani 19.11.1997 Ms4e Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms4w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms15e Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms22e Naya 14.02.2000 Sd1e Hiradoumi 20.04.2000 Sd16e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd40w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd18e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd95w Soga 09.02.2003 Jd109w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Jk14e Yoshii 01.08.2003 Jk17e Otsuji 06.10.2003 Jk18e Koki 21.10.2003 Jk23e Wakahiroto 23.10.2003 Jk25e Daihisho 08.11.2003 Jk27w Hashimoto 15.01.2004 Jk28w Numano 13.02.2004 Ogitora just happens to be the youngest of the previous recruiting class, and his lingering in the triple digit Jd area probably means he won't go much of anywhere, unlike the barely older Kotokume who has already been in Sd. Numano will have the honors for the next year unless someone younger than him that graduated middle school early this year decides to join up later.
  5. Gurowake

    Future prospects to keep an eye on

    Nagoya 2022: J7 Tier: Atamifuji+3 - Since Nagoya 2021 J14 Tier: Hokuseiho - Since Hatsu 2021 Ms30 Tier: Otsuji+2 - Since Haru 2020 Kotohaguro+1 - Lots of going on and off since Aki 2018 - most recently since Hatsu 2022 Mukainakano - First appearance Ms45 Tier: Yoshii+1 - Since Kyushu 2019 Ms60 Tier: Daihisho - Since Hatsu 2021 other than Nagoya 2021 Sd25 Tier: Ieshima+2 - Previous appearance Aki 2021. Setonoumi - First appearance Sd50 Tier: Miyata+1 - since Natsu 2022, plus Natsu and Nagoya 2021 Sd75 Tier: Takashoki+1 - Since Hatsu 2022 Shunrai - Since Aki 2021 except for Natsu 2022 Sd90 Tier: Mogamizakura - Since Natsu 2022, plus Kyushu 2021
  6. Nagoya 2022: Y1e Terunofuji 29.11.1991 O1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 K1e Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 M11e Kotoshoho 26.08.1999 M15w Oho 14.02.2000 J6e Atamifuji 03.09.2002 Ms18e Otsuji 06.10.2003 Ms58e Daihisho 08.11.2003 Sd20e Setonoumi 11.06.2004 Sd25e Ieshima 26.01.2005 Sd46w Miyata 04.02.2005 Sd52e Shunrai 10.04.2005 Sd62e Takashoki 09.12.2005 Jd43e Tanji 05.06.2006 Jd84w Hayashiryu 04.07.2006 Jd85e Rinko 04.07.2006 Jk1e Oyamazakura 15.08.2006 Jk2e Takaarashi 28.12.2006 Changes: Takakeisho passes Mitakeumi Kitanowaka moves down past Atamifuji Setonoumi and Ieshima pass Miyata Shunrai and Takashoki pass Mogamizakura Tanji passes Kyokutaiga Hayashiryu and Rinko (twins ranked right next to each other) pass Oyamazakura
  7. Gurowake

    Guess Hokutofuji's Aite - July 2022 edition

    1. Tochinoshin 2. Tobizaru
  8. Gurowake

    Nagoya Basho 2022

    Daieisho has an outside chance at Ozeki promotion too.
  9. Gurowake

    Trivia bits

    Intended as a repository of pointless bits of trivia I or others find, particularly while browsing the database. It happens a lot between basho. In a total of 5 basho since the 15-day era began, the last match was between two undefeated rikishi. Twice it was Taiho vs. Kashiwado, and they split the matches. All matches featured Y1e. No such match was a playoff (theoretically possible between stable members). Harumafuji is the only one to appear in such a bout that was not a Yokozuna at the time. No other Day-15 matches involving 2 14-0 rikishi have occurred. In Haru 1996, there was a 6-0 match in Jonidan on Day 15, but two other rikishi were also 7-0 from previous days. Incidentally, a few basho in each direction in that time period there were many Day-14 6-0 matches in the lower divisions, but none that basho and one on Day 15 instead. Only one Day-14 6-0 match took place outside that 1995-1996 window.
  10. The bottom of the Makuuchi banzuke is generally the place that people get things wrong most often. I don't feel too bad when I get it wrong.
  11. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    OK, I guess I'm just not paying much attention to where they've been putting the promotees recently. If it's been what they've been doing, OK, but it's still somewhat baffling. edit: I suppose it might be a modest leniency for double digit losses.
  12. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    This is really baffling to me. I had Kitanowaka and Yago at the bottom of the division, as it seemed all the promotees could reasonably placed higher than the bottom.
  13. Gurowake

    Banzuke for Nagoya 2022

    Not I. Thanks for pointing it out.
  14. As I thought, my 63 doesn't look all that great compared to others who report their scores early.
  15. Gurowake

    New recruits Aki 2022

    Well, the DB gives his real name as ASGAKHAD Altan-Ochir, which doesn't look very Chinese to me. The last bit doesn't look very Mongolian either, though the first bit does. The DB also has his shusshin as Inner Mongolia, though that doesn't necessarily mean he's Mongolian by itself - the majority of the population there are Han Chinese.
  16. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    It's one of those things that happens rarely enough that we're probably never going to get a set answer. Based on some of their choices in the last 5 years or so I'm surprised that the line at 11 wins as a Komusubi is as clean-cut as it is. There's certainly a very good argument to be made that 10 wins should be enough, as it was in times in the past.
  17. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    I wouldn't put it quite on those terms. There's only been one occasion recently where a Sekiwake promotion was expected and not given, and that was in a very rare situation. 11 win Komusubi without open Sekiwake slots available happen a bit more often, there's a very clear line that's been put in place, and they haven't stopped promoting those. Sure, maybe once upon a time they promoted 10 win Komusubi as well, but that was a long time ago, and they handed out more Komusubi promotions too then.
  18. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    The context of your quotes are not relevant to the point about caring about Sekiwake. The point is: Goeido S Tochiozan Myogiryu S2 -- Toyonoshima K Aminishiki has more in common with Goeido S Tochiozan Myogiryu K Toyonoshima Aminishiki K2 --- than it does with Goeido S Tochiozan Myogiryu K Toyonoshima. for the vast majority of purposes when it comes to GTB. That's the argument we're making for why you shouldn't be considering Komusubi only when analyzing players' choices for lower sanyaku. If someone asked for an analysis of the number of Komusubi, then this is an attempt to get them to realize that what they meant to ask for was an analysis of lower sanyaku choices, because the choices for number of Komusubi depend on the choices for the number of Sekiwake.
  19. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    Yes, if your question is "how many Koumusbi did players pick?" then you should correctly focus only on the Komusubi. But this thread is specifically about Nagoya 2021, and I don't think there's going to be very many people, if any, that predict more than one Sekiwake, and there's not any uncertainty about the number of upper sanyaku, so the question of "How many Komusubi?" is equivalent to the question of "How many sanyaku?". The latter question is, in general, the one that's the most relevant when talking about GTB. The fact that the question for Nagoya 2021 was phrased only in terms of Komusubi reflects the extremely likely situation where every single person predicts the same number of sanyaku other than Komusubi. If there was a real possibility that people might pick more than 2 Sekiwake for Nagoya 2021, I suspect that the poll would reflect that option. The point is that if you're going to analyze past GTB picks, you need to consider not only how many extra Komusubi were predicted, but also how many Sekiwake, because it's the sum of those two that's most relevant for the game. That Sekiwake were not asked about in this poll is simply because there's no uncertainty.
  20. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    I swear some of the entries are done by making selections at random. If it's offered by the entry form, someone is probably going to choose it. See, for example, Shimazuumi being picked for Makuuchi last basho. I don't know how anyone could actually conclude he'd get promoted, but he was offered as a choice for promotion just in case, and so someone picked up.
  21. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    There is an argument that the number of total lower sanyaku is more relevant that the number of Komusubi when it comes to this sort of analysis, unless you literally only care about the number of Komusubi. In reality, the actual number that's most important is the total for all sanyaku, but because there's no secrecy to the upper sanyaku, the focus is on getting the number of lower sanyaku correct. If you get that wrong, whether you have the correct number of Komusubi or Sekiwake is almost entirely irrelevant.
  22. Yes, that's exactly what I use. You can see evidence of it in my banzuke posts that omit the number of absences, because those aren't listed in simple style.
  23. It's errors like this that make me attempt to, in all cases possible, copy the data electronically from a trusted source rather than retyping it at all.
  24. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    True, it takes more work, but the information is there if you want to collate it. It shouldn't be too hard to see how many extra Komusubi were picked just by adding up all the picks for Komusubi in total. In fact, just looking at the grid, there were clearly 3 extra Komusubi chosen, and zooming in they were all on different ballots. If more people pick additionally Komusubi it'll get harder to determine, but it shouldn't be too hard to manually inspect it. At least, it looks like there's plenty of people that have gone with 2, so I suspect that's still going to be the majority and it won't be hard to see how many extra ones there are.
  25. Gurowake

    How many komusubi did you go for? (Nagoya GTB)

    If you click on the rikishi names, you can get a list of where all players put that rikishi. It also helpfully tells you the player's score so you know whether each pick is associated with a good score or not.