Gurowake

Tamawashi if 10-5. Would be almost perfectly parallel to Kyokutenho's last sansho.

But then why is Takanosho- Kagayaki after it? Why change the order from the standard by many places only to not push it all the way to right before matches with sanyaku?

It feels kind of a let down to "win" this way, as there were multiple other people who basically did just as well. I think there really needs to be some way to earn bonus points that are use solely in the event of a full basho tie like this. I think the best way to do this is simply if there's a chance of this sort of tie on day 15, to have those in contention to tie give a full Makuuchi toriikumi and see who can get the most right. While that doesn't absolutely prevent a tie if all you're counting is the number right, if that happens you can then look at the number of ranks off in some sort of fashion, though there are multiple ways of doing that. Perhaps we could even have ranks off with the final aite be the secondary tiebreaker, with there being an advantage to being either higher or lower (I don't know which one makes more sense), and then if people pick the same aite have the first entry be the final tiebreaker. Overall, I just don't want to be declared the winner simply by rank. Ozumo did away with that a long time ago.

Surprised someone else had this, but they're not near the lead so I'm fine. 15. Midorifuji

14. Wakatakakage

I was mostly right about Hakuoho - that he would face either Hiradoumi or Ura - they had the same record and are next to each other on the banzuke. I didn't have much of a read on who Ura would fight if it wasn't Hakuoho, so I took the roughly 50% chance based on my feeling about where Hakuoho's opponent would likely be. I'm not too surprised it ended up being Hiradoumi and not Ura, because I remember having to try to come up with reasons why it wouldn't be Hiradoumi just so I'd have a guess that was not just a random pick. There's no way I'd have picked Oho.

13. Hakuoho

There's a very good reason why I failed to give the logic for why I skipped over considering this aite.

I hope that you mean have Kagayaki up against Atamifuji. The other way definitely won't happen.

12. Oshoma Takarafuji gets Kagayaki

If we assume 50% win rates and all matches being independent of each other (both of which are clearly false, but at least can be used as a starting place), I'm getting a ~24.3% of none of them happening. Given that the win rates for 3 of the 4 more likely occurrences are probably actually lower than 50% given they'll likely face higher ranked opponents, it's likely quite a bit higher than that.

Simple concept. By definition the top rikishi on the banzuke will appear first, as there is no one above them on the banzuke at all. Those who show up on this list frequently that aren't already Ozeki or higher are likely to be worth keeping track of for the future. Probably anything the lower half of Jonidan or below isn't worth considering though. This is quick enough to put together that I can go back a few years if people find this interesting, since the last few years might still show some prospects worth considering that haven't hit their prime yet. Hatsu 2019 Y1e Kisenosato 03.07.1986 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms21w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms39e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms50e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd51e Yamato 03.07.2001 Sd83e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd84w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd5e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Haru 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Takayasu 28.02.1990 S1e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J4e Takagenji 13.05.1997 J13w Takanofuji 13.05.1997 Ms1w Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms7w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms20w Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms30e Tsukahara 12.10.1999 Ms41e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd64e Tanakayama 24.01.2002 Sd85w Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd69e Soga 09.02.2003 Jd106w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Natsu 2019 Y1e Hakuho 11.03.1985 Y1w Kakuryu 10.08.1985 O1e Goeido 06.04.1986 O1w Takayasu 28.02.1990 O2e Takakeisho 05.08.1996 J2e Takagenji 13.05.1997 Ms2e Kotokamatani 19.11.1997 Ms4e Ryuko 23.06.1998 Ms4w Hoshoryu 22.05.1999 Ms15e Kototebakari 26.08.1999 Ms22e Naya 14.02.2000 Sd1e Hiradoumi 20.04.2000 Sd16e Tokuda 25.07.2000 Sd40w Kotakiyama 09.01.2003 Jd18e Kotokume 17.01.2003 Jd95w Soga 09.02.2003 Jd109w Ogitora 24.03.2003 Jk14e Yoshii 01.08.2003 Jk17e Otsuji 06.10.2003 Jk18e Koki 21.10.2003 Jk23e Wakahiroto 23.10.2003 Jk25e Daihisho 08.11.2003 Jk27w Hashimoto 15.01.2004 Jk28w Numano 13.02.2004 Ogitora just happens to be the youngest of the previous recruiting class, and his lingering in the triple digit Jd area probably means he won't go much of anywhere, unlike the barely older Kotokume who has already been in Sd. Numano will have the honors for the next year unless someone younger than him that graduated middle school early this year decides to join up later.

11. Hoshoryu

10. Wakamotoharu

9. Kotozakura

8. Endo

They could easily have met in Aki 2023 - M11 and M15. Most matches between double digit maegashira end up happening due to the effect of the division border, but that particular one didn't. They weren't close enough to be matched in the earlier going, and Chiyoshoma ended up doing terribly so when he might have been matched against Mitakeumi he instead got higher-ranked rikishi doing poorly. In Aki 2021 and Hatsu 2021 when Chiyoshoma was M5 previously, Mitakeumi would have faced him if they went only by rank, but instead faced rikishi who were lower-ranked and doing better. Chiyoshoma was also M5 back near the time he made it to the joi in 2017, but that was when there were 7 Y+O so the sanyaku matches didn't go down nearly as far as they would starting a few years later.

I assume you mean Onosato. One possibility is that people are finally figuring out how to beat him.

Even day rule was apparently in effect in the Churanoumi/Oshoma matchup choices, but the Ozeki matches were in banzuke order. The "mistakes" have been "corrected". 7. Ichiyamamoto

6. Hiradoumi There's no way to tell if it's something they've been doing all tournament and this was the first time it made a difference, or if it was a "mistake" like we've seen happen occasionally that will be "corrected".

5. Tobizaru

4. Takayasu

They *did* follow the even day rule at the very bottom of the division where the number of available rikishi wasn't divisible by 4. Bizarre. 3. Gonoyama

1. Shodai 2. Hiradoumi

I swear sometime near the end of 2016 Tamawashi was replaced with a doppelganger who was just a bit better at sumo and many years younger. I find it incredible that after being a mediocre maegashira with one fluke sanyaku appearance up to that point that he went on to become a joi regular, win two Yusho, and then continue doing decently in Makuuchi until after he turned 40. Now he's training with the sanyaku and winning!